Core Insights - Advanced packaging is emerging as a critical technology in the semiconductor industry, with FOPLP (Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging) gaining significant attention as a potential successor to TSMC's CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology [1][4][8] Industry Overview - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.9%, increasing from $39.2 billion in 2023 to $81.1 billion by 2029 [8] - FOPLP is expected to see a remarkable CAGR of 32.5%, growing from $4.1 million in 2022 to $221 million by 2028 [11] Technology Comparison - Advanced packaging can be categorized into three main types: Flip Chip, 2.5D/3D IC packaging, and Fan-Out Packaging [2] - FOPLP offers advantages over traditional FOWLP (Fan-Out Wafer Level Packaging) by utilizing larger panel sizes, which enhances area utilization and reduces costs [6][7] Key Players and Developments - SpaceX is entering the advanced packaging space with plans to establish FOPLP production capacity in Texas, featuring the industry's largest substrate size of 700mm x 700mm [1] - TSMC is actively expanding its CoWoS capacity, with plans to increase monthly production from 35,000 wafers to 70,000 by the end of 2025, contributing over 10% to its revenue [3] - ASE (Advanced Semiconductor Engineering) is investing $200 million to set up FOPLP production lines in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, with trial production expected by the end of this year [1][14] Material Innovations - FOPLP utilizes glass substrates, which provide mechanical, physical, and optical advantages over traditional silicon materials, making it a focus for major companies like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [7][8] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite its potential, FOPLP has not yet achieved mass production due to yield issues and a lack of standardization in panel sizes, which complicates system design [19] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards FOPLP as a mainstream solution, with companies like ASE and TSMC making significant investments to overcome current challenges [12][14][17]

Group 1 - Latin America presents numerous untapped opportunities compared to the highly competitive Southeast Asia and Middle East markets, making it a potential "golden coast" for investment [2] - Chinese automotive companies have been eyeing the Brazilian market for over a decade, seeking the right strategy to penetrate the South American market [3] - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism is taking place in the UK, with expectations for fruitful discussions [4][5] Group 2 - Changan Automobile has established a global presence with plans for 20 overseas factories, of which 9 are already operational, and has expanded into over 100 countries [6] - Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra will be featured in the Gran Turismo 7 game, marking the first time a Chinese car is included in the series [6] - SHEIN has denied reports of plans to increase its Indian supplier base from 150 to 1000 within a year [7] - Yigcloud Technology has completed a nearly 100 million yuan Pre-B round of financing, aimed at enhancing its AI-driven enterprise office support platform [7] - Jianlin Home plans to invest 319 million yuan to expand its production capacity in Thailand [7] Group 3 - China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD [8] - Trade with African countries reached a record high in the first five months of the year, with a 12.4% year-on-year increase [8] - The ASEAN region has become China's largest trading partner, with trade value growing by 9.1% in the first five months [8] - Exports of electric vehicles from China grew by 19% in the first five months, while industrial robots saw a significant increase of 55.4% [9]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容来自联合报 。 集邦科技今日发布首季晶圆代工市占调查，美国新关税政府引发的提前备货及中国旧换新补贴影 响，急单涌进，抵销淡季效应，首季营收季减5.4%，优于预期，台积电也挟AI及HPC订单需求稳 定，首季全球市占再向上推升，达到67.6%，稳坐全球第一。 集邦调查，第1季主要晶圆代工厂营收合计仅季减约5.4%，为364亿美元，优于预期。展望第2季营 收表现，随着关税引发的提前备货告一段落，整体动能逐步放缓，唯中国旧换新的补贴政策拉货潮 有望延续，加上下半年智慧手机新品上市前备货陆续启动，以及AI HPC需求稳定，将成为带动第 2季产能利用率和出货的关键，预期前十大晶圆代工厂营收将呈现季增。 集邦指出，第1季各晶圆代工业厂仍由台积电以67.6%市占率稳居第一，虽其晶圆出货虽因智慧手 机备货淡季而下滑，但因AI及HPC需求和电视的关税避险急单仍然强劲，抵销手机端需求下滑不 利因素，营收255亿美元，季减5%。 第二名的三星代工部门因美国先进制程禁令限制中国客户投产，以及其客户组成关系，获得中国消 费补贴的红利有限，第1季营收季减11.3%，为28.9亿美元，市占 ...

Group 1 - Huawei Cloud has undergone significant management changes, with Chen Lin appointed as the new president for the China region, and Zhang Xiu Zheng transitioning to a role focused on ICT business [2][3] - The Huawei Cloud Marketing and Solution Sales Department (MSSD) has been restructured to enhance sales responsibilities, with Liu Fei leading the new organization [3] - Huawei's AI computing team, led by Zhang Dongsheng, is tasked with optimizing algorithms and frameworks to promote the widespread application of AI computing [2] Group 2 - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun announced that the company is testing robotic capabilities in its automotive factory, with new chips expected to launch soon [4] - Four-dimensional Map New has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Alibaba Cloud to explore applications in large models, assisted driving, and vehicle networking [5] - The "Ben Yuan Wu Kong" quantum computer has completed over 500,000 quantum computing tasks for users across 143 countries since its launch [5] Group 3 - Tsinghua Unigroup's UCloud has officially begun the delivery of its third phase of the Wulanchabu Intelligent Computing Center, which includes 2,300 cabinets and a total area of approximately 23,000 square meters [6] - iFlytek's Super Brain platform now covers 90% of domestic intelligent robot manufacturers, with 60% utilizing a full-link interaction solution [6] Group 4 - ByteDance's ByteBrain team has developed a new VMR system that reduces inference time to 1.1 seconds while maintaining near-optimal performance [7] - The Hangzhou Embodied Intelligence Industry Alliance has been established to promote collaboration in the field of embodied intelligence [8] Group 5 - JD Smart plans to procure servers worth up to 600 million RMB to support its intelligent computing cloud services [9] - Keling AI has partnered with Lovart to enhance video generation capabilities, significantly improving content creation efficiency [10] Group 6 - ByteDance has released the SeedEdit 3.0 image editing model, capable of processing and generating 4K images with high fidelity [11] - The world's first smart aircraft hangar, developed by Eastern Airlines and Cainiao Group, has been officially put into use, integrating various smart applications [12] Group 7 - DingTalk has updated its version to make multi-dimensional tables completely free, adding over 20 AI field templates [13] - Gaode has launched its first AI navigation agent, NaviAgent, in collaboration with several companies [14] Group 8 - Alibaba has open-sourced the Qwen3-Embedding vector model, which improves performance by 40% compared to the previous version [15] - 360's founder Zhou Hongyi plans to eliminate the entire marketing department to streamline product launches [16] Group 9 - The AI startup Manus has introduced a text-to-video feature that can create complete video stories from text commands [4] - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $700.9 billion by 2025, driven by demand in AI and cloud infrastructure [23] Group 10 - Nvidia's market value has increased by approximately $1 trillion in two months, with optimistic investor sentiment following recent earnings reports [22] - The Japanese government aims to enhance its intellectual property competitiveness through AI and advanced technologies [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][9][32] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing strong order growth, particularly from TSMC, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue this year [2][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain positioning and the identification of key players in the humanoid robot market, focusing on components such as joint modules, dexterous hands, and sensors [3][4] - AI infrastructure is projected to see continued capital expenditure growth driven by demand for data centers, benefiting companies involved in gas turbines and chillers [3][4] Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the global launch of Grando's intelligent robots and the official release of the TianGong Robot 2.0, showcasing advancements in service robots [1][18] - The Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center has increased its registered capital to 460 million RMB, indicating strong investment in the sector [19] - The 2025 Global AI Technology Conference was held in Hangzhou, focusing on AI technology breakthroughs and industry trends [22] Company Dynamics - Key strategic partnerships have been formed, such as the collaboration between Kepler and ZhaoFeng Electromechanical, aimed at enhancing humanoid robot applications in industrial settings [24] - Other notable partnerships include the establishment of a smart sensing laboratory by Fulei New Materials and Tsinghua University, and a strategic agreement between Yujian Technology and YaoshiBang [25][26] Key Companies and Investment Focus - The report highlights several companies for investment consideration, including Longxi Co., JinDi Co., YiRui Technology, YingLiu Co., and DingYang Technology, all of which are positioned well within the humanoid robot supply chain [3] - Specific components and companies to watch include: - Joint modules: Hengli Hydraulic, Huichuan Technology, Zhenyu Technology, and Lens Technology - Dexterous hands: Zhaowei Electromechanical, Leisai Intelligent, and Lens Technology - Reducers: Lide Harmony and JinDi Co. - Sensors: Hanwei Technology [3][4]

Group 1: Industry Trends - The U.S. has extended the tariff exemption on Chinese GPU and motherboard imports until August 31, 2025, delaying potential price increases for these components [7] - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $700.9 billion by 2025, with an expected growth rate of 11.2% [8][11] - The DRAM market is experiencing high prices, which may suppress procurement demand in certain sectors [15] Group 2: Company Developments - Guokai Microelectronics plans to acquire a 94.366% stake in Zhongxin Ningbo, enhancing its capabilities in high-end filter and MEMS manufacturing [9] - STMicroelectronics announced a layoff of 5,000 employees over the next three years, including 2,800 positions previously announced [10] - Broadcom reported a record Q2 revenue of $15 billion, with AI chip revenue exceeding $4.4 billion, marking a 46% year-over-year increase [11] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global semiconductor equipment market saw a significant decline in sales in China, dropping 18% to $10.26 billion, while Taiwan's market surged by 200% [8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 1.6% year-over-year decline in global PC GPU shipments, totaling 68.8 million units [17] - The smartphone market in Latin America experienced a 4% decline in Q1 2025, ending a six-quarter growth streak [18]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is renegotiating the CHIPS Act subsidy contracts to encourage companies to invest more in semiconductor projects in the U.S. [2] - TSMC has announced an additional investment of $100 billion on top of its previously committed $65 billion investment in the U.S. [2] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary indicated that companies unwilling to comply with government requirements may face difficulties in receiving subsidies [2] Group 2 - The CHIPS Act has bipartisan support, but there is resistance to outright repeal despite opposition from figures like former President Trump [3] - The U.S. government is leveraging stronger measures to ensure companies increase their investments in exchange for subsidies [3] - The effectiveness of U.S. export bans on China is highlighted, with China currently unable to produce advanced chips at the scale of TSMC for companies like NVIDIA [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Taiwan technology sector, particularly semiconductor companies such as TSMC, MediaTek, and UMC, as well as emerging companies like MPI and WinWay [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Investor sentiment regarding AI demand has improved, with a decreasing likelihood of significant AI order cuts in the near term due to better assembly yields from downstream ODMs [3][5]. - TSMC's CoWoS shipments and capacity are expected to grow by 52% and 58% year-over-year in 2026, with capacity increasing from 660k wafers in 2025 to 1,000k wafers in 2026 [5]. - The company's capital expenditure (capex) outlook has been trimmed to US$40 billion for 2026, down from US$45 billion, reflecting potential slower adoption of 2nm technology [5][16]. - TSMC is projected to achieve a 20% revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next several years, driven by increasing silicon content and AI demand [14][16]. MediaTek - There are concerns regarding MediaTek's AI ASIC business, with potential revenue expectations for 2026 around US$1 billion [7][18]. - Despite near-term uncertainties, there is optimism about MediaTek's long-term growth in ASICs and its expansion into new markets [7][19]. - MediaTek is expected to see revenue and earnings grow by 16% and 21% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, driven by market share gains and new total addressable markets (TAM) [19][20]. UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) - UMC has been downgraded to a Sell rating due to risks associated with order cuts and unfavorable foreign exchange trends [8][22]. - The company faces intense pricing pressure from aggressive capacity expansion by mainland Chinese foundries, which is expected to impact its profitability [8][22]. - UMC's share price has increased by 10% year-to-date, but the outlook remains cautious due to competition and potential order cuts in non-AI applications [8][22]. MPI and WinWay - MPI is positioned as a leading probe card provider, with expectations of revenue and earnings CAGR of 19% and 28% from 2024 to 2027, driven by market share gains and increased self-sufficiency [25][27]. - WinWay, a socket provider, is expected to see revenue and earnings accelerate at 23% and 37% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, supported by demand from the AI/HPC segment [30][31]. - Both companies are trading below their historical average P/E ratios, indicating potential upside in their valuations [27][31]. Other Important Insights - Investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic about AI demand, with some investors shifting to a more positive stance as geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues ease [3][5]. - The overall market dynamics for the semiconductor industry are influenced by the ongoing technology migration and increasing complexity of chips, which is driving demand for advanced testing solutions [10][11][31]. - The conference highlighted the importance of understanding the competitive landscape and potential new business opportunities for companies in the semiconductor sector [9][10]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Taiwan technology sector, particularly in the semiconductor industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Companies Involved - **Apple Inc. (AAPL)** [9] - **Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)** [10][11] - **Coherent Corp. (COHR)** [12] - **KLA Corporation (KLAC)** [15][16] - **Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP)** [17][18] Core Insights and Arguments Apple Inc. (AAPL) - Expectations for the upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) are low, with investors anticipating a lackluster event [9] - The company is expected to announce incremental updates related to AI features, including third-party app developer access to on-device AI LLMs and integration with Google Gemini and ChatGPT [9] - Potential positive surprises could include specific timelines for upgraded Siri features in North America and the launch of Apple Intelligence in China [9] Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) - Anticipated strong earnings results and guidance, driven by growth in AI products and stabilization in non-AI semiconductor sectors [10][11] - Revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter is projected to be around $16.1 billion, exceeding consensus estimates [11] - The launch of the Tomahawk 6 chip is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with a lifetime revenue potential exceeding $15 billion [11] Coherent Corp. (COHR) - Positive investor sentiment following management meetings, with a strong focus on datacom share opportunities [12] - The company is transitioning to 6" InP wafers to enhance competitiveness and margin accretion [12] - Management reiterated that their growth targets are based on organic initiatives and consolidation, without factoring in potential divestitures [12] KLA Corporation (KLAC) - The company is confident in achieving $38 in earnings power by next year, supported by strong market share in process control equipment [15][16] - KLA's process control segment has outperformed overall wafer front-end (WFE) spending, with a projected 12% CAGR from 2013 to 2024 [16] - The company maintains a dominant market share of 56% in the process control market, with expectations for continued growth due to rising capital intensity in semiconductor manufacturing [16] Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP) - Recent meetings indicated a stronger recovery in bookings, with May bookings being the highest in two years [17][18] - Management expects to reduce balance sheet inventories to below 200 days by the December quarter, with a potential for gross margins to exceed 60% [18] - The company is seeing growth in core industrial and automotive markets, as well as in cloud and AI datacenter sectors [18] Other Important Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with the OECD cutting global economic outlook for the US GDP in 2025 and 2026 to 1.6% and 1.5% respectively [20] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing increased complexity in manufacturing, driving demand for advanced process control systems [16] - Overall, the semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow faster than the overall semiconductor industry, with KLA positioned to benefit from this trend [16]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expanding its advanced packaging capacity, but the timeline for the AP7 plant in Chiayi has been delayed, raising concerns about the impact on global HPC chip supply [1][2]. Group 1: Plant Development and Delays - TSMC's AP7 plant in Chiayi was initially scheduled for equipment installation in Q3, but this has been postponed to Q4 due to recent safety incidents at the site [1][2]. - The Chiayi County Mayor mentioned that the first phase of the plant's construction is expected to proceed in Q3, despite industry reports indicating a delay [1][2]. - The Chiayi plant is set to focus on wafer-level multi-chip module (WMCM) packaging, which is anticipated to be used in Apple's self-developed chips [1][2]. Group 2: Safety Incidents and Their Impact - Two safety incidents involving different contractors have led to work stoppages at the Chiayi plant, which may affect the construction timeline [2]. - The Occupational Safety and Health Administration has stated that TSMC, as the owner, is involved in discussions to enhance safety measures following these incidents [2]. Group 3: Future Production Capacity - TSMC is planning to establish two advanced packaging plants in Chiayi, with recruitment for technical staff already underway, offering salaries above NT$700,000 [2]. - The AP7 plant is expected to have a monthly production capacity of 4,000 to 5,000 units for SoIC by 2024, with potential increases in subsequent years [4]. - TSMC's SoIC technology is set to be utilized by major clients, including AMD and Apple, with the latter expected to implement it in the M5 chip [5]. Group 4: Overall Industry Outlook - Despite concerns about capacity constraints due to TSMC's investments in the U.S., the progress of the AP8 and AP7 plants in Taiwan is reportedly accelerating [4]. - The industry anticipates growth in operations as new advanced packaging facilities come online and testing facilities continue to expand capital expenditures [6].