1月23日，步入2026年，全球金融市场正处于由技术突破向基础设施深耕转型的关键节点， RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，投资者应将视线从单一的软件应用转向支撑数字化时代运行的核心支柱。 回顾2025年，以 Palantir 和 Alphabet 为代表的 AI 领军企业涨幅惊人，分别达 135% 和 65%，但这仅仅 是这场科技革命的序章。随着算力竞赛升级，芯片巨头如英伟达、台积电仍是焦点，但RadexMarkets瑞 德克斯认为，市场长期以来忽视了同样关键的内存与数据存储板块。 在算力激增的背景下，海量的短期与长期数据处理需求使得内存行业成为了不容忽视的生产瓶颈。 RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，目前三星、海力士与美光科技几乎垄断了全球产能，这种极高的行业壁垒 赋予了相关标的极强的定价权。尽管美光科技在去年已实现 240% 的涨幅，但相较于大科技板块整体的 高市盈率，其估值依然具有吸引力。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，2026 年的市场情绪将效仿去年贵金 属市场的轮动逻辑，从核心芯片向云计算、网络安全及高速带宽等下游基础设施渗透，每一个细分环节 都孕育着新的投资机遇。 与此同时，能源结构 ...

Core Insights - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the world has only scratched the surface in building the necessary infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI), with thousands of billions already invested and trillions more needed for development [1] - Huang described a "five-layer cake" of modern AI infrastructure, which includes energy, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, AI models, and application layers, indicating significant economic benefits will arise from these developments [1] - The demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by large-scale AI data centers is prompting major investments from memory and NAND flash suppliers like Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung [1] Investment Trends - Huang noted that 2025 is projected to be one of the largest years for venture capital, with significant funding directed towards AI-native companies due to advancements in AI models [2] - The introduction of reasoning models and open models has instilled confidence in investors to fund large-scale AI infrastructure projects [2] Industry Impact - AI advancements are leading to significant progress in sectors like pharmaceuticals, with companies like Eli Lilly achieving breakthroughs that allow scientists to interact with proteins similarly to ChatGPT [2] - The impact of AI on employment is mixed; while it may create high-paying jobs in skilled trades, its long-term effects on other professions, such as radiology and nursing, are still uncertain [2][3] Healthcare Sector - Increased patient numbers have led to higher hospital revenues, resulting in the hiring of more radiologists and nurses, countering the notion that AI will reduce job numbers in these fields [3] - The financial services and legal sectors may see a reduction in analyst positions due to AI's influence [3] Global AI Development - Huang advocates for every country to participate in building their own AI infrastructure, leveraging their unique languages and cultures to develop localized AI solutions [4]

Group 1 - The rise of AI is seen as a significant technological leap similar to the internet revolution, with the potential to positively impact corporate growth and attract retail investors [1][5] - The AI revolution is primarily led by established companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC, which have a history of profitability and proven operating segments, unlike many dot-com stocks during the internet boom [9][11] - The addressable market for AI is projected to be $15.7 trillion by 2030, indicating a substantial growth opportunity for industry leaders [4] Group 2 - Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC have experienced significant stock gains in 2023, with Nvidia up 1,170%, Broadcom up 529%, and TSMC up 360%, driven by high demand for AI hardware and data center infrastructure [15] - Despite high investor expectations for AI adoption, many businesses are not yet optimizing their AI solutions, which could impact the long-term returns on AI investments [17][18] - The established foundations of leading AI companies may protect them from severe downturns similar to the dot-com bubble, but a potential AI bubble burst would still negatively affect their stock prices [19]

Group 1 - The semiconductor materials and equipment sector continues to adjust, but market interest remains high due to rapid growth in demand for high-end semiconductors driven by AI infrastructure [1][6] - TSMC's advanced 3nm process faces production bottlenecks, with capacity fully booked until 2027; Morgan Stanley predicts a 50% price increase for DDR4 in Q1 2026, indicating a potential "super cycle" in memory chips [1][6] - The Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) has seen net inflows in 15 out of the last 20 trading days, totaling 855 million yuan, increasing its shares to 978 million and total assets to 1.87 billion yuan [1][6] Group 2 - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector benefits from accelerated domestic substitution, with the localization rate of semiconductor equipment steadily increasing since 2018 [1] - The Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) and its linked funds are positioned at the intersection of the AI hardware wave and domestic substitution, with 84.8% of the index weight in semiconductor equipment and materials [1] - Since 2025, the Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index has increased by 95.21%, outperforming the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index, which rose by 89.97% during the same period [1]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's growth stagnation may allow competitors like Microsoft, Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Broadcom to surpass it in market value over the next five years [1][2]. Group 1: Apple’s Current Position - Apple is currently valued at $3.6 trillion but is experiencing slower revenue growth at 10% year-over-year, relying on past performance rather than innovation [4]. - The company has not launched any significant new products recently, which raises concerns about its ability to maintain market share against more innovative competitors [4]. Group 2: Competitors' Potential - Microsoft, with a market cap of $3.4 trillion, and Amazon, valued at $2.5 trillion, are positioned to potentially surpass Apple due to their faster growth rates [7]. - Microsoft has benefited from the generative AI trend through its Azure cloud service, achieving mid- to high-double-digit EPS growth, which could propel it past Apple [8]. - Amazon's growth is driven by higher-margin divisions, and despite a slowdown in the third quarter, its operating income is expected to grow rapidly, allowing it to surpass Apple within five years [11]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Growth - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for a 25% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2029, which could triple its revenue and potentially surpass Apple [13]. - Broadcom is also well-positioned with its custom AI accelerator chips, expecting 100% year-over-year growth for these products, and could surpass Apple if it matches the projected growth in global data center capital expenditures [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is undergoing a significant paradigm shift, with a movement from single-market asset allocation to diversified global assets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is characterized by "high growth, low correlation, and low valuation" attributes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The core contradiction in global asset performance in the first half of 2025 revolves around the uncertainty of tariff policies, leading to a risk-off mode in the market [2]. - The U.S. dollar assets faced a collective downturn in April 2025, with the dollar index dropping below 100 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surging, indicating a shift from a "dollar-centric" view to a new paradigm where non-U.S. currencies are gaining importance [2][3]. - Historical trends show that global liquidity typically follows a 4-5 year cycle with the U.S. dollar, and a declining dollar phase tends to favor non-U.S. assets, particularly those in the Asia-Pacific region with strong fundamentals [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia-Pacific - For domestic investors, the low correlation of the CSI 300 index with major global indices allows for effective risk mitigation through investments in Asia-Pacific assets, which are expected to contribute higher economic growth compared to global markets [3]. - The Asia-Pacific market currently offers significantly lower PE valuation levels compared to the high valuations in the U.S. market, presenting a compelling investment opportunity [3]. Group 3: Sectoral Advantages - The dual drivers of "technology growth" and "dividend defense" are central to the investment appeal of Asia-Pacific assets, particularly in the semiconductor industry, which has unmatched global competitiveness [4]. - Major semiconductor companies in the region, such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics, are positioned to benefit from the AI technology boom and the recovery of the semiconductor cycle [4]. - Japan's corporate governance reforms and ultra-loose monetary policy have improved shareholder returns and operational efficiency, making Japanese equities an attractive option for long-term investors [4][5]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - The Southern Fund's Asia-Pacific Select ETF is designed to capture investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific market, tracking the FTSE Asia-Pacific Low Carbon Select Index, which includes leading companies while incorporating ESG low-carbon screening [7]. - The ETF's holdings balance quality and diversity, featuring top firms across various sectors, including technology and automotive, while minimizing risks associated with single-country or single-industry volatility [7]. - The fund's low management and custody fees provide a cost-effective pathway for investors to participate in the growth potential of the Asia-Pacific region [7]. Group 5: Performance Resilience - The Asia-Pacific Select ETF has demonstrated resilience in various market conditions, outperforming similar assets during periods of high U.S. Treasury yields and global trade fluctuations [8]. - The rise of Asia-Pacific assets is seen as a natural outcome of evolving global economic dynamics, industry cycles, and improved corporate governance, marking the region's emergence into a "golden era" [8].

Group 1 - Nvidia has officially surpassed Apple to become TSMC's largest customer, contributing approximately 13% to TSMC's total revenue [1][3] - The shift in customer dynamics is driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, while the growth in consumer electronics has slowed down, leading to a significant change in the semiconductor industry's core drivers [3] - TSMC's revenue structure reflects this industry shift, with a substantial increase in revenue from high-performance computing, while smartphone business revenue continues to decline [3] Group 2 - Nvidia's demand for AI GPUs has led to a situation where more than half of TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is consumed by Nvidia [3] - Apple, despite still holding over half of TSMC's initial capacity for 2nm chips, has lost its previous priority in capacity allocation and is now diversifying its supply chain to mitigate risks [3] - Huang Renxun's early ambition to become TSMC's largest customer has now been realized, marking a significant milestone in the relationship between Nvidia and TSMC [3]

黄仁勋曾断言："未来十年，算力的天花板将由光传输效率决定。"这句话不仅揭示了光互连技术在未来算力竞赛中的核心 地位，也点燃了一个曾经小众的半导体材料——磷化铟（InP）的市场热情。 当前，随着AI大模型训练进入万卡集群时代，数据中心内部数据传输需求呈指数级增长，全球AI基础设施支出预计2026年 突破万亿美元，推动数据中心光模块向800G/1.6T及以上速率加速迭代。 在这股浪潮中，磷化铟材料凭借其独特性能成为光通信革命的核心支撑。全球头部磷化铟供应商订单已排满至2026年， 2025年全球器件需求达200万片，而产能仅60万片，近70%的供需缺口持续推高产业景气度。 这个曾被视为小众的材料，如今正在成为半导体行业的新焦点。 为何是磷化铟？ 在半导体领域，材料选择往往决定了技术路线的边界。 传统硅材料虽工艺成熟、成本低廉，但其物理特性在高频高速应用场景中逐渐显露短板。磷化铟作为第二代III-V族化合物 半导体的代表，在这场技术演进中脱颖而出。 磷化铟拥有硅材料10倍以上的电子迁移率（高达 1.2×104 cm²/V·s），同时具备高饱和电子漂移速度、优异的导热性与光电 转换效率，可支持100GHz以上的超高频 ...

Group 1 - The "Year of the Horse" edition of Moutai has a printing error, leading to a surge in second-hand prices, with listings ranging from 2300 to 2800 yuan, up from the original price of 1899 yuan [2] - Vivo has halted its AI glasses project after six months of development, citing difficulties in differentiation as the reason for the decision [2] - Lamborghini announced a record delivery of 10,747 vehicles in 2025, marking a 60-unit increase from 2024 and achieving over 10,000 deliveries for the second consecutive year [3] Group 2 - Yonghui Supermarket expects a net loss of 2.14 billion yuan for 2025 due to significant strategic adjustments, including store renovations and asset write-offs [4] - The company has a high debt ratio of 88.96% and a current ratio of 0.63, indicating financial strain [6] - The company plans to complete its strategic adjustments by 2026 [6] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target for December 2026 from 4900 to 5400 dollars per ounce, driven by increased diversification in gold holdings amid global uncertainties [11] - Nvidia has overtaken Apple as TSMC's largest customer, accounting for approximately 13% of TSMC's total revenue [11] - China has implemented a nationwide subsidy program for elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities, providing up to 800 yuan per month for various elder care services [12] Group 4 - Intel reported a 4.1% year-over-year decline in Q4 revenue, totaling 13.67 billion dollars, while adjusted EPS rose to 0.15 dollars [23] - The company expects Q1 revenue to be between 11.7 billion and 12.7 billion dollars, with adjusted EPS projected at 0.0 dollars [23] - The company "Raising a Cow" achieved over 7 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, reflecting steady growth from the previous year [23]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2] - The PBOC plans to flexibly use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [2] - There is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions this year, with an emphasis on managing interest rate policies to keep financing costs low [2] Structural Policies - The PBOC has introduced a series of structural monetary policies, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools [3] - The PBOC has set up a dedicated 1 trillion yuan relending facility for private enterprises and increased the relending quota for agricultural and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan [3] - The PBOC aims to maintain stable financial markets and manage expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable [3] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to stabilize with four positive signals, including a noticeable stabilization in sales scale for new and second-hand homes [4] - There is increasing differentiation among cities and regions, with some core cities showing signs of activity in the real estate market [4] - Inventory levels have shown a certain degree of decline, contributing to the overall market recovery [4] Investment and Innovation - A strong domestic demand market is crucial for promoting technological innovation, as it attracts global resources, talent, and capital [5] - A domestic company with leading foundational model capabilities could benefit from a stronger consumer environment, enhancing subscription revenue and model investment interactions [5] AI and Technology Developments - Baidu has officially released the Wenxin large model 5.0, which supports various forms of information understanding and output [6] - Baichuan Intelligent has launched the Baichuan-M3 Plus, which significantly reduces the hallucination rate in medical scenarios and introduces evidence anchoring technology for verifiable medical judgments [8] Market Regulations - The State Administration for Market Regulation has prohibited certain gas companies from establishing joint ventures, marking a significant enforcement of antitrust laws in the public utility sector [15] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, encouraging participation in centralized procurement [13] International Investment Trends - The Swedish largest private pension fund has sold a significant portion of its U.S. Treasury holdings due to concerns over the unpredictability of the U.S. government and rising debt levels [20] - Chinese enterprises are expected to maintain healthy and orderly development in foreign investments, with direct investments reaching $174.38 billion in 2025, a 7.1% increase from the previous year [14]