Market Overview - Futures are higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.4%, driven by enthusiasm for technology stocks [1] - The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 for ten consecutive sessions, showing a relative performance improvement of over 600 basis points this year [4] Corporate News - JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. reported a 4% decline in shares after quarterly revenue missed estimates, indicating ongoing weakness in freight demand [5] - Kraft Heinz shares fell 1.1% following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley to underweight [5] - Mosaic's shares dropped 6% due to a significant decline in North American fertilizer demand [5] - PNC Financial Services Group Inc. shares rose 3% after reporting a 9% increase in fourth-quarter revenue, surpassing analysts' expectations [5] - Regions Financial shares fell 4% after reporting lower EPS and total loans than expected, with a forecast of declining net interest income [5] Technology Sector - The Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher in premarket trading, with Nvidia up 0.8% and other tech firms like AMD and Microsoft also showing gains [3] - TSMC's strong earnings and capital expenditure forecast have fueled optimism regarding the AI boom [4] - OpenAI and Microsoft are facing legal challenges over claims related to funding and operational changes [3] Economic Indicators - The first week of the earnings season has seen 89% of the 28 companies reporting so far beating expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the broader economy [9] - US stock funds experienced inflows of $36.5 billion in the week ending January 14, reflecting investor confidence [10] - Yield premiums on corporate debt have narrowed significantly, with a record $435 billion in bonds issued in the first half of January [11] Central Bank Insights - Five regional Fed bank presidents indicated that the central bank is well-positioned to wait for further data before making rate cuts, with no changes expected at the upcoming meeting [12] - Fed officials have expressed a need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to combat inflation [37] Global Market Trends - European stocks dipped slightly but are on track for their fifth consecutive weekly advance, with health care stocks outperforming [13] - Asian stocks rose, particularly in Taiwan, supported by TSMC's positive outlook for AI demand [15] - The Japanese yen strengthened as Finance Minister Katayama indicated readiness for potential currency intervention [16]

Market Overview - The market this week was influenced by two main themes: the investigation rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and concerns over the "independence of the Federal Reserve," impacting the dollar and interest rate expectations; and fluctuating geopolitical news related to Iran, leading to volatility in gold and oil prices [1] - The dollar index faced pressure early in the week due to political uncertainty but later strengthened supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for recent rate cuts, aiming for a third consecutive week of gains [1] - Gold prices initially surged to a historical high of $4642.85 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, but later entered a consolidation phase, closing at $4583 per ounce [1] - Silver saw a significant increase, peaking at nearly $93.70 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 30%, although it experienced extreme volatility [1] Non-U.S. Currencies - The "high market trading" led to the Japanese yen falling below the 159 mark against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since July 2024; the euro and pound showed slight weakness while the Australian dollar remained relatively stable [2] - Oil prices were primarily driven by news related to Iran, initially rising due to concerns over internal unrest but later retracing gains as U.S. political statements eased tensions [2] Investment Bank Insights - Lloyds Bank suggested that the Federal Reserve might become a scapegoat for the weak U.S. job market; UBS indicated that concerns over the Fed's independence could lead to a more hawkish stance [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that the Fed would continue to make decisions based on data, unaffected by investigation pressures; Morgan Stanley stated that inflation remains above target, insufficient to support a rate cut in January [5] Major Events - Trump criticized Powell again, claiming he is either incompetent or corrupt, amidst a backdrop of a criminal investigation into Powell, which has drawn support for him from global central bank leaders [6] - The Senate Majority Leader questioned the investigation's legitimacy, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [7] - The December CPI data indicated a strong signal of cooling inflation, leading to increased market bets on early rate cuts, although Fed officials warned against premature easing [8] Corporate Developments - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$505.7 billion (approximately $16 billion) for Q4 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips [24] - Apple and Google reached a potential $5 billion AI partnership, opting for Google's Gemini model over OpenAI, impacting the competitive landscape in AI technology [26] - Tesla announced a shift from a one-time purchase model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature to a subscription model, aiming to create a more stable revenue stream and lower entry barriers for consumers [28]

Group 1: TSMC Financial Performance - TSMC reported a net profit growth of 35% year-on-year for Q4 2025, exceeding market expectations [1][13] - The company announced a capital expenditure of up to $56 billion for the year, a significant increase of 37% compared to the actual expenditure of $40.9 billion in 2025, marking a historical high for the company [1][13] - This performance signals TSMC's strong confidence in the continued expansion of the artificial intelligence industry [1][13] Group 2: Memory Price Surge - DDR5 memory prices have surged over 300% since September 2025, while DDR4 memory prices have increased by more than 150% [3][15] - The domestic market is expected to see a resonance between advanced logic and storage capacity expansion, alongside an increase in domestic production rates driven by self-sufficiency trends [3][15] Group 3: Companies with Significant Earnings Growth - Zhongtai Co., Ltd. reported a projected earnings growth of 677.22% for 2025, with core products used by major chip manufacturers [4][16] - Baiwei Storage anticipates a 473.71% increase in earnings, being one of the few companies mastering both NAND Flash and DRAM technologies [5][17] - Huazheng New Materials expects a 392.52% earnings growth, focusing on copper-clad laminates essential for PCB manufacturing [6][18] - Zhongke Lanyun forecasts a 371.51% increase, specializing in wireless audio SoC chips [7][19] - TCL Technology projects an earnings growth of 180.00%, involved in semiconductor display and photovoltaic materials [8][20] - Sanmei Co. anticipates a 165.89% increase, producing electronic chemicals for semiconductor applications [9][21] - Guangku Technology expects a 162.00% growth, focusing on optical communication devices [10][22] - Guoli Electronics projects a 144.73% increase, manufacturing vacuum capacitors for semiconductor equipment [11][23] - Jinhaitong anticipates a 135.73% growth, specializing in integrated circuit testing machines [12][24] - Dayang Bio expects a 61.58% increase, involved in semiconductor materials [12][24] - Yongxi Electronics forecasts a 31.93% growth, focusing on integrated circuit packaging and testing services [12][23]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall industry return is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - The competition between NVIDIA and Google in the AI chip market is heavily reliant on TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging, which is currently a critical bottleneck in the AI chip supply chain [3]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27% to 37% due to strong AI demand [3]. - NVIDIA is collaborating with Amkor to expand its production capacity in the U.S. from 2026 to 2029, as TSMC reallocates some advanced packaging orders to OSAT manufacturers [3]. - Samsung and Intel are actively enhancing their advanced process capabilities, with Samsung aiming to increase its global 2nm monthly capacity to 21,000 wafers by the end of 2026 [4]. - HBM is identified as a key battleground in the competition between NVIDIA's GPUs and Google's TPUs, influencing both performance limits and the actual deliverable quantities of chips [4]. - NAND and SSD demand is significantly amplified in AI data centers, with NVIDIA's Rubin platform enhancing data sharing and reuse, potentially increasing SSD demand [5]. - There is a rising demand for inference cards as large model vendors seek alternatives to NVIDIA's chips to reduce dependency and costs [6]. Summary by Sections Advanced Process and Packaging - TSMC leads in advanced packaging with CoWoS capacity constraints impacting NVIDIA and Google's AI chip output [3]. - Amkor and ASE are being utilized to alleviate TSMC's capacity pressure, with Amkor investing $5 billion in advanced packaging facilities in Arizona [3][4]. Storage Side - HBM is crucial for the competition between NVIDIA and Google, while on-chip SRAM is emerging as a new direction for inference storage [4]. - The collaboration between NVIDIA and Groq focuses on inference technology utilizing on-chip SRAM [4]. Client Side - Major AI model vendors are diversifying their computational resources, with Anthropic planning to deploy up to 1 million TPUs by 2026 and OpenAI partnering with Cerebras for a large-scale AI inference platform [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors within the semiconductor supply chain, including foundries, advanced packaging, storage, and AI model applications, amidst the competitive landscape between NVIDIA and Google [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. AI stock rally continues, driven by strong earnings from TSMC, but signs of caution are emerging as some investors rotate out of positions and precious metals show unusual strength, indicating potential hedging against risks [1][13]. Group 1: AI and Semiconductor Sector - TSMC's Q4 results confirmed ongoing AI infrastructure spending, beating estimates and raising its 2026 capex forecast, leading to bullish ratings from major banks [2]. - The semiconductor supply chain benefited from this momentum, with Jefferies raising Nvidia's price target to $275, while AMD's stock surged 11% due to strong performance in AI testing [3]. - AMD's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 60, indicating strong momentum without being overbought, suggesting a healthy rally [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Stock Movements - Stanley Druckenmiller sold his entire Nvidia stake, indicating a belief that easy gains for the stock may be over, with analysts divided on Nvidia's future prospects [5]. - Retail investors are increasingly engaging with high-beta stocks, as seen with AST SpaceMobile's significant price increase driven by social media sentiment [6]. - Micron Technology showed rational momentum with a 42% increase over the past month, supported by strong earnings growth and favorable valuation metrics [7]. Group 3: Tesla's Challenges - Tesla's stock has struggled, gaining only 0.6% this week and down 8% over the past month, with significant sales declines in key markets [8]. - The upcoming transition to a subscription model for Full Self-Driving (FSD) is tied to ambitious growth targets, but the product remains at Level 2, facing competition from other companies [9]. Group 4: Precious Metals and Economic Signals - Silver and gold prices have surged, with silver up 20% this week and 43% over the past month, indicating potential hedging against economic instability [11]. - Amazon's copper supply deal with Rio Tinto for AWS data centers highlights the importance of securing physical commodity supply chains amid AI infrastructure demands [12].

Group 1 - The Taiwan-US trade agreement has raised concerns in Taiwan, with opinions suggesting that it may lead to the relocation of core industrial chains and result in a loss of talent and resources for Taiwan [1] - The agreement includes a reduction of the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US on Taiwan to 15%, in exchange for Taiwan's technology sector increasing investments in the US by $500 billion [1] - There are fears that the semiconductor industry, particularly TSMC, will accelerate its investments in the US, which could lead to a gradual erosion of Taiwan's irreplaceable position in the global supply chain [1][2] Group 2 - The Taiwan People's Party criticized the agreement for including investments in the US energy sector, arguing that it undermines local industry development at a time when Taiwan is struggling with energy transition and supply issues [2] - An analysis by a professor from National Central University indicates that the requirement for Taiwan's tech industry to significantly increase investments in the US will limit local investment opportunities [2] - Concerns were raised about the scale of the investment, which is equivalent to approximately 80 times the annual budget of the Taipei City Government, and the potential for Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain to be entirely relocated [2]

Core Viewpoint - The electronic sector is leading the A-share market, with the electronic ETF (515260) showing strong performance, closing up 2.7% and achieving a premium rate of 0.93% at the end of the trading day, indicating strong buying interest [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The electronic sector received a net inflow of 30.511 billion, ranking first among all 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][3] - Major stocks in the electronic ETF, including Zhaoyi Innovation and Changdian Technology, attracted 4.538 billion and 3.181 billion respectively, topping the A-share inflow rankings [2][3] - Semiconductor leaders such as Changdian Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Tongfu Microelectronics hit the daily limit, while Huazhong Microelectronics rose over 13% [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - TSMC's recent earnings report for Q4 2025 exceeded expectations, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, and raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to 52-56 billion USD, reflecting strong and sustainable demand in the AI industry chain [5] - The U.S. government's recent imposition of a 25% tariff on specific semiconductors may create a stronger "accelerated replacement" window for domestic equipment amid increasing supply chain uncertainties [5] - The trend of "self-control and AI resonance" is expected to strengthen further in 2026, with a focus on domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment [5] Group 3: Investment Tools - The electronic ETF (515260) and its linked funds are designed to passively track the electronic 50 index, heavily investing in semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, including AI chips, automotive electronics, and PCB [5] - The ETF serves as an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to core assets in the electronic sector [5]

Core Insights - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a transformative technological leap, comparable to the internet revolution [2][3] - Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller has divested his entire stake in Nvidia, a leading AI hardware company, and shifted his focus to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) [4][12] Company Insights - Nvidia has a dominant position in the AI hardware market, with its GPUs accounting for over 90% of those deployed in enterprise data centers [5] - Despite its competitive advantages, Druckenmiller sold his Nvidia stake, possibly due to profit-taking and concerns about overhyped AI expectations [7][9] - TSMC has been a consistent investment for Druckenmiller, with purchases made in four of the last five quarters, driven by the demand for AI GPUs [12][13] - TSMC's growth is not solely dependent on AI, as it also manufactures CPUs and chips for various applications, providing a diversified revenue stream [15] Market Insights - Analysts estimate that AI could contribute $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, indicating a significant market opportunity [3] - TSMC's stock has seen substantial growth, with a market cap exceeding $1 trillion, supported by the increasing demand for AI-related chips [12][13] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for TSMC is currently at 25, reflecting a valuation that, while not as attractive as before, still presents a value proposition [16]

Group 1 - TSMC's Kumamoto Factory (Kumamoto Plant 1) is set to begin mass production by the end of 2024, with a second factory (Kumamoto Plant 2) under construction, although its construction has reportedly been halted [1] - The halt in construction of Kumamoto Plant 2 may be due to TSMC's consideration to produce more advanced products, specifically 2nm chips, in response to increasing demand for Physical AI applications [1][2] - TSMC's Chairman Wei Zhejia stated that the types of semiconductors and the mass production timeline for Kumamoto Plant 2 will depend on customer demand and market conditions [1] Group 2 - Originally, Kumamoto Plant 2 was planned to produce 6nm chips for applications such as autonomous driving, but reports indicate that the project has shifted focus to potentially producing 4nm chips instead [2] - The construction of Kumamoto Plant 2 was officially initiated in October 2025, but equipment was removed from the site around December 2025, indicating a significant pause in the project [2]

Core Insights - TSMC expects a nearly 30% increase in overall revenue in 2026 when calculated in USD [1] - The global "foundry 2.0" industry is projected to grow by 14% year-on-year in 2026, with TSMC's revenue reaching 35.9% in 2025 [1] Revenue Growth - TSMC's revenue growth in the "foundry 2.0" sector was 16% in 2025, while the company anticipates a 14% growth for the industry in 2026 [1] - AI accelerators contributed over 10% to TSMC's revenue in 2025, with a projected CAGR of nearly 60% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - TSMC forecasts a CAGR of nearly 25% for overall revenue in USD from 2024 to 2029 [1] Segment Contributions - Advanced packaging is expected to contribute approximately 8% to TSMC's total revenue in 2024, increasing to over 10% in 2025, and exceeding ten percentage points by 2026 [1] - Advanced packaging and mask manufacturing will account for 10-20% of TSMC's capital expenditures in 2026, higher than previous levels [1] Market Conditions - TSMC has not observed changes in customer behavior in the PC and mobile sectors due to the memory supply crisis, as high-value mobile chip supplies are less sensitive to memory price fluctuations [3] - The company has confirmed a reduction in 8-inch and 6-inch production capacity but will continue to support customers in these areas [3]