Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a slight pullback on January 16, with the Shanghai Composite Index barely holding above the 4100-point mark, while the electronic sector showed resilience, leading gains in the market [1][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.26% at 4101.91 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.20% [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 30,568 billion yuan, an increase of 1,180 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Sector Highlights - The electronic sector was the standout performer, with the electronic ETF (515260) rising by 2.7%, and the smart manufacturing ETF (516800) increasing by 2.42% [1][2]. - The new materials and new energy sectors also saw some individual stocks perform well, with the new materials ETF (516360) and the smart electric vehicle ETF (516380) both gaining over 1% [1]. Downward Trends - The AI medical concept continued to cool off, with the largest medical ETF (512170) dropping by 2.6% [1]. - AI application stocks experienced a broad pullback, with the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) declining by 1.81% [1]. Capital Inflows - The electronic sector attracted a net inflow of 30.511 billion yuan, leading all 31 first-level industries in terms of capital absorption [8]. - Key stocks within the electronic ETF, such as Zhaoyi Innovation and Changdian Technology, attracted significant capital inflows of 4.538 billion yuan and 3.181 billion yuan, respectively [8][9]. Policy Support - The central bank implemented a series of measures to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in re-lending and rediscount rates, and an increase in the re-lending quota for small and medium-sized enterprises by 500 billion yuan [2][3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that A-shares may see considerable incremental capital by 2026, potentially sustaining a slow bull market [3]. - The focus is expected to shift towards verifying economic conditions and performance, with active funds reinforcing a dual-line strategy of "technology + resource products" [3].

Group 1 - The Taiwanese authorities recently signed a trade agreement with the U.S., which includes a reduction of tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15% [2] - The reduction in tariffs is contingent upon Taiwanese semiconductor and technology companies committing to invest at least $250 billion in the U.S. [4] - The Taiwanese government is also required to provide an additional $250 billion as a credit guarantee, totaling $500 billion for a 5% tariff reduction [4] Group 2 - The U.S. aims to relocate 40% of Taiwan's semiconductor companies to the U.S., indicating a strategy to extract benefits from Taiwan's core industries [4][6] - The semiconductor industry, particularly TSMC, is crucial for Taiwan's economy and has become a bargaining chip for the Taiwanese authorities in negotiations with the U.S. [4][6] - The actions of the U.S. are perceived as a direct attempt to undermine Taiwan's economic strengths while simultaneously distancing itself from the Taiwan issue [6][10]

最新一轮对科技股的热情延续至周五，推动美国股指期货走高。小盘股同样上涨，投资者继续扩大配置 范围、分散风险敞口。日元猛烈的抛售暂停，警惕官方干预。 截至发稿，道指期货涨0.08%，标普500指数期货涨0.31%，纳指期货涨0.61%。 尽管欧洲市场科技板块表现相对偏淡，但摩根士丹利将欧洲人工智能"风向标"阿斯麦的目标价上调 40%。 亚洲科技股指数周五创下历史新高；在前一交易日，美国芯片股指数也刷新纪录。 纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.6%，表现优于标普500指数期货。道琼斯工业指数和标准普尔500指数在前 一交易日收盘时分别仅较历史收盘高点低0.3%和0.5%，而小盘股罗素2000指数则创下历史新高。 除了几家公司公布财报，本周企业财报相对清淡。M&T银行和PNC金融公司将公布财报，道富银行也 将公布财报。 台积电重燃AI热情 本周临近周末的科技股反弹，源于台积电对资本开支与营收前景的展望；在估值与回报疑虑一度拖累科 技板块之后，该指引重新点燃了围绕人工智能的乐观情绪。随着美国经济展现韧性，科技股领涨与更广 泛市场参与之间的平衡态势预计仍将延续，从而带动更多股票受益。 纽约梅隆银行高级宏观策略师Geoff ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for TSMC, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [50]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), a year-over-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.9%, exceeding the upper guidance range [8][10]. - The gross margin for Q4 2025 improved to 62.3%, up from 59.5% in the previous quarter, driven by cost improvements and higher capacity utilization [2][8]. - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditures, with a projected budget of US$52 billion to US$56 billion for 2026, focusing on advanced technology and long-term capacity expansion [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. TSMC Q4 2025 Operational Performance - Revenue: Q4 2025 revenue was NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), up 25.5% YoY and 1.9% QoQ, supported by strong demand for leading technology [8][10]. - Gross Margin: Achieved a gross margin of 62.3%, higher than the guidance range, due to cost improvements and favorable exchange rates [8][10]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders was NT$505.74 billion, reflecting a 35.0% YoY increase [8][10]. 2. Revenue Breakdown - By Platform: In Q4 2025, mobile accounted for 32% of revenue, HPC 55%, IoT 5%, automotive 5%, and digital consumer electronics 1% [14]. - By Process Technology: Revenue from 3nm process technology constituted 28%, while 5nm accounted for 35% [18]. 3. TSMC Q1 2026 Guidance - Revenue Guidance: TSMC expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between US$34.6 billion and US$35.8 billion, representing a YoY growth of approximately 38% [5][22]. - Gross Margin Guidance: Expected gross margin for Q1 2026 is between 63% and 65% [5][22]. 4. Capital Expenditure - Q4 2025 capital expenditure was approximately US$11.51 billion, with a total capital expenditure for 2025 increasing to US$40.9 billion from US$29.8 billion in 2024 [4][12]. - The capital budget for 2026 is projected to be between US$52 billion and US$56 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced technology [4][22]. 5. Global Manufacturing Layout - TSMC is accelerating capacity expansion in Arizona, with plans for multiple fabs to meet strong AI demand [11][15]. - The company is also expanding its manufacturing capabilities in Japan and Europe, supported by local government initiatives [15].

Market Overview - Futures are higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.4%, driven by enthusiasm for technology stocks [1] - The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 for ten consecutive sessions, showing a relative performance improvement of over 600 basis points this year [4] Corporate News - JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. reported a 4% decline in shares after quarterly revenue missed estimates, indicating ongoing weakness in freight demand [5] - Kraft Heinz shares fell 1.1% following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley to underweight [5] - Mosaic's shares dropped 6% due to a significant decline in North American fertilizer demand [5] - PNC Financial Services Group Inc. shares rose 3% after reporting a 9% increase in fourth-quarter revenue, surpassing analysts' expectations [5] - Regions Financial shares fell 4% after reporting lower EPS and total loans than expected, with a forecast of declining net interest income [5] Technology Sector - The Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher in premarket trading, with Nvidia up 0.8% and other tech firms like AMD and Microsoft also showing gains [3] - TSMC's strong earnings and capital expenditure forecast have fueled optimism regarding the AI boom [4] - OpenAI and Microsoft are facing legal challenges over claims related to funding and operational changes [3] Economic Indicators - The first week of the earnings season has seen 89% of the 28 companies reporting so far beating expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the broader economy [9] - US stock funds experienced inflows of $36.5 billion in the week ending January 14, reflecting investor confidence [10] - Yield premiums on corporate debt have narrowed significantly, with a record $435 billion in bonds issued in the first half of January [11] Central Bank Insights - Five regional Fed bank presidents indicated that the central bank is well-positioned to wait for further data before making rate cuts, with no changes expected at the upcoming meeting [12] - Fed officials have expressed a need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to combat inflation [37] Global Market Trends - European stocks dipped slightly but are on track for their fifth consecutive weekly advance, with health care stocks outperforming [13] - Asian stocks rose, particularly in Taiwan, supported by TSMC's positive outlook for AI demand [15] - The Japanese yen strengthened as Finance Minister Katayama indicated readiness for potential currency intervention [16]

Market Overview - The market this week was influenced by two main themes: the investigation rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and concerns over the "independence of the Federal Reserve," impacting the dollar and interest rate expectations; and fluctuating geopolitical news related to Iran, leading to volatility in gold and oil prices [1] - The dollar index faced pressure early in the week due to political uncertainty but later strengthened supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for recent rate cuts, aiming for a third consecutive week of gains [1] - Gold prices initially surged to a historical high of $4642.85 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, but later entered a consolidation phase, closing at $4583 per ounce [1] - Silver saw a significant increase, peaking at nearly $93.70 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 30%, although it experienced extreme volatility [1] Non-U.S. Currencies - The "high market trading" led to the Japanese yen falling below the 159 mark against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since July 2024; the euro and pound showed slight weakness while the Australian dollar remained relatively stable [2] - Oil prices were primarily driven by news related to Iran, initially rising due to concerns over internal unrest but later retracing gains as U.S. political statements eased tensions [2] Investment Bank Insights - Lloyds Bank suggested that the Federal Reserve might become a scapegoat for the weak U.S. job market; UBS indicated that concerns over the Fed's independence could lead to a more hawkish stance [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that the Fed would continue to make decisions based on data, unaffected by investigation pressures; Morgan Stanley stated that inflation remains above target, insufficient to support a rate cut in January [5] Major Events - Trump criticized Powell again, claiming he is either incompetent or corrupt, amidst a backdrop of a criminal investigation into Powell, which has drawn support for him from global central bank leaders [6] - The Senate Majority Leader questioned the investigation's legitimacy, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [7] - The December CPI data indicated a strong signal of cooling inflation, leading to increased market bets on early rate cuts, although Fed officials warned against premature easing [8] Corporate Developments - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$505.7 billion (approximately $16 billion) for Q4 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips [24] - Apple and Google reached a potential $5 billion AI partnership, opting for Google's Gemini model over OpenAI, impacting the competitive landscape in AI technology [26] - Tesla announced a shift from a one-time purchase model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature to a subscription model, aiming to create a more stable revenue stream and lower entry barriers for consumers [28]

Group 1: TSMC Financial Performance - TSMC reported a net profit growth of 35% year-on-year for Q4 2025, exceeding market expectations [1][13] - The company announced a capital expenditure of up to $56 billion for the year, a significant increase of 37% compared to the actual expenditure of $40.9 billion in 2025, marking a historical high for the company [1][13] - This performance signals TSMC's strong confidence in the continued expansion of the artificial intelligence industry [1][13] Group 2: Memory Price Surge - DDR5 memory prices have surged over 300% since September 2025, while DDR4 memory prices have increased by more than 150% [3][15] - The domestic market is expected to see a resonance between advanced logic and storage capacity expansion, alongside an increase in domestic production rates driven by self-sufficiency trends [3][15] Group 3: Companies with Significant Earnings Growth - Zhongtai Co., Ltd. reported a projected earnings growth of 677.22% for 2025, with core products used by major chip manufacturers [4][16] - Baiwei Storage anticipates a 473.71% increase in earnings, being one of the few companies mastering both NAND Flash and DRAM technologies [5][17] - Huazheng New Materials expects a 392.52% earnings growth, focusing on copper-clad laminates essential for PCB manufacturing [6][18] - Zhongke Lanyun forecasts a 371.51% increase, specializing in wireless audio SoC chips [7][19] - TCL Technology projects an earnings growth of 180.00%, involved in semiconductor display and photovoltaic materials [8][20] - Sanmei Co. anticipates a 165.89% increase, producing electronic chemicals for semiconductor applications [9][21] - Guangku Technology expects a 162.00% growth, focusing on optical communication devices [10][22] - Guoli Electronics projects a 144.73% increase, manufacturing vacuum capacitors for semiconductor equipment [11][23] - Jinhaitong anticipates a 135.73% growth, specializing in integrated circuit testing machines [12][24] - Dayang Bio expects a 61.58% increase, involved in semiconductor materials [12][24] - Yongxi Electronics forecasts a 31.93% growth, focusing on integrated circuit packaging and testing services [12][23]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall industry return is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - The competition between NVIDIA and Google in the AI chip market is heavily reliant on TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging, which is currently a critical bottleneck in the AI chip supply chain [3]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27% to 37% due to strong AI demand [3]. - NVIDIA is collaborating with Amkor to expand its production capacity in the U.S. from 2026 to 2029, as TSMC reallocates some advanced packaging orders to OSAT manufacturers [3]. - Samsung and Intel are actively enhancing their advanced process capabilities, with Samsung aiming to increase its global 2nm monthly capacity to 21,000 wafers by the end of 2026 [4]. - HBM is identified as a key battleground in the competition between NVIDIA's GPUs and Google's TPUs, influencing both performance limits and the actual deliverable quantities of chips [4]. - NAND and SSD demand is significantly amplified in AI data centers, with NVIDIA's Rubin platform enhancing data sharing and reuse, potentially increasing SSD demand [5]. - There is a rising demand for inference cards as large model vendors seek alternatives to NVIDIA's chips to reduce dependency and costs [6]. Summary by Sections Advanced Process and Packaging - TSMC leads in advanced packaging with CoWoS capacity constraints impacting NVIDIA and Google's AI chip output [3]. - Amkor and ASE are being utilized to alleviate TSMC's capacity pressure, with Amkor investing $5 billion in advanced packaging facilities in Arizona [3][4]. Storage Side - HBM is crucial for the competition between NVIDIA and Google, while on-chip SRAM is emerging as a new direction for inference storage [4]. - The collaboration between NVIDIA and Groq focuses on inference technology utilizing on-chip SRAM [4]. Client Side - Major AI model vendors are diversifying their computational resources, with Anthropic planning to deploy up to 1 million TPUs by 2026 and OpenAI partnering with Cerebras for a large-scale AI inference platform [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors within the semiconductor supply chain, including foundries, advanced packaging, storage, and AI model applications, amidst the competitive landscape between NVIDIA and Google [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. AI stock rally continues, driven by strong earnings from TSMC, but signs of caution are emerging as some investors rotate out of positions and precious metals show unusual strength, indicating potential hedging against risks [1][13]. Group 1: AI and Semiconductor Sector - TSMC's Q4 results confirmed ongoing AI infrastructure spending, beating estimates and raising its 2026 capex forecast, leading to bullish ratings from major banks [2]. - The semiconductor supply chain benefited from this momentum, with Jefferies raising Nvidia's price target to $275, while AMD's stock surged 11% due to strong performance in AI testing [3]. - AMD's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 60, indicating strong momentum without being overbought, suggesting a healthy rally [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Stock Movements - Stanley Druckenmiller sold his entire Nvidia stake, indicating a belief that easy gains for the stock may be over, with analysts divided on Nvidia's future prospects [5]. - Retail investors are increasingly engaging with high-beta stocks, as seen with AST SpaceMobile's significant price increase driven by social media sentiment [6]. - Micron Technology showed rational momentum with a 42% increase over the past month, supported by strong earnings growth and favorable valuation metrics [7]. Group 3: Tesla's Challenges - Tesla's stock has struggled, gaining only 0.6% this week and down 8% over the past month, with significant sales declines in key markets [8]. - The upcoming transition to a subscription model for Full Self-Driving (FSD) is tied to ambitious growth targets, but the product remains at Level 2, facing competition from other companies [9]. Group 4: Precious Metals and Economic Signals - Silver and gold prices have surged, with silver up 20% this week and 43% over the past month, indicating potential hedging against economic instability [11]. - Amazon's copper supply deal with Rio Tinto for AWS data centers highlights the importance of securing physical commodity supply chains amid AI infrastructure demands [12].

Group 1 - The Taiwan-US trade agreement has raised concerns in Taiwan, with opinions suggesting that it may lead to the relocation of core industrial chains and result in a loss of talent and resources for Taiwan [1] - The agreement includes a reduction of the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US on Taiwan to 15%, in exchange for Taiwan's technology sector increasing investments in the US by $500 billion [1] - There are fears that the semiconductor industry, particularly TSMC, will accelerate its investments in the US, which could lead to a gradual erosion of Taiwan's irreplaceable position in the global supply chain [1][2] Group 2 - The Taiwan People's Party criticized the agreement for including investments in the US energy sector, arguing that it undermines local industry development at a time when Taiwan is struggling with energy transition and supply issues [2] - An analysis by a professor from National Central University indicates that the requirement for Taiwan's tech industry to significantly increase investments in the US will limit local investment opportunities [2] - Concerns were raised about the scale of the investment, which is equivalent to approximately 80 times the annual budget of the Taipei City Government, and the potential for Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain to be entirely relocated [2]