公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 过去五年，全球半导体制造几乎等同于一场光刻机的地缘政治。ASML的EUV光刻系统成为先进制程 的唯一通行证，任何想进入 5nm 以下节点的公司，都必须经由这台价值超过 3 亿美元、由 45 万个 零件组成的巨兽。 从苹果到台积电，从三星到英特尔，整个行业的创新速度被EUV产能和供应节奏间接锁定。 而另一边， 非EUV 领域——电子束直写（E-Beam Lithography）、 纳米压印（NIL ）、掩模直写 （ML2）——曾多次被寄予"平替"希望，却始终未能进入量产体系。它们像漂浮在摩尔定律边缘 的"幽灵技术"，时而被提起，又悄然沉寂。 然而，AI的爆发正悄然改变这一切。一台EUV光刻机，不可能为每一家AI公司开启一条产线。在先 进封装、异构集成、Chiplet、SiP等多工艺、多材料混合的环境中，光学光刻难以覆盖全部需求层 级。在这种需求转折点上，制造业开始寻找新的可能。那些曾被遗忘的"非EUV技术"正在以新的形式 回归。 6.5 万束电子光束光刻，瞄准AI芯片 SecureFoundry成立于2016年，总部位于沃斯堡，是一家兼顾国家安全与商业需求的半导体 ...

台积电股价下跌2.4%，富士康科技集团股价下跌3.8%。 ...

大摩闭门会-台积电与 AI 供应链；存储周期与利基型存储 20251010 摘要 台积电市盈率相对较低，受益于 NVIDIA 和 AMD 订单持续增长，建议在 法周前买进。AI 需求强劲，预计 2026 年 AI 服务器资本支出将大幅增加， 台积电产能有望在 2026 年底满足客户需求。 Meta 项目中 MediaTek 订单机会较低，依赖单一客户风险较高。 Adobe 项目量产时间推迟，但全年营收维持。GUC 在 Google CPU 上 的量将增加，并获得 Meta 和 Kiosha 的设计服务案子，成长动能强劲。 中国 AI 资本支出预计达到 50 亿美元，训练芯片依赖现有 NVIDIA 卡或 海外数据，推理芯片可能通过国内采购。RTS Pro 6,000D B40 芯片需 求仍然很大，不需要许可证即可出口中国，在推理应用中具有竞争力。 未来 10 个月内，算力供给将更多依赖于进口芯片。股票投资方面，建 议关注 TNC 和晶圆店 KYEC，第三方服务领域偏好 Alchip。对于非 AI 相关的股票，看好 Global Wafers 和 China SPE，避开 EchoVue 和 MediaTek。 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines last Friday, with the S&P 500 index falling by 2.71% to 6552.51 points, the Dow Jones down by 1.90% to 45479.60 points, and the Nasdaq dropping by 3.56% to 22204.43 points, marking the largest drop in six months [2][3] - Weekly performance showed the Dow Jones index down 2.73%, Nasdaq down 2.53%, and S&P 500 down 2.43% [3] Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - U.S. Vice President Vance indicated a willingness for rational negotiations with China, following President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on certain Chinese goods starting November 1 [5] - Market sentiment improved after Vance's comments, with Bitcoin rising over 2% and Ethereum increasing by over 7%, reflecting optimism about potential negotiations [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Investors are closely monitoring developments regarding Trump's tariff statements and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic data, including the September CPI report now scheduled for October 24 [6] - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. companies will be scrutinized for insights into the economic outlook and potential layoffs [6] Federal Reserve Developments - The last week before the Federal Reserve's October meeting is marked by increased communication from Fed officials, including Chairman Powell's scheduled speech [6] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.036% and the 2-year yield at 3.512% [9] Stock Performance - Notable declines in major tech stocks included Nvidia down 4.89%, Microsoft down 2.19%, Apple down 3.45%, and Amazon down 4.99% [10] - Nvidia's CEO sold 225,000 shares for over $42.8 million during the recent trading period [10][16] Global Market Trends - European and Asian markets also faced declines, with the FTSE 100 down 0.86%, CAC 40 down 1.53%, and Nikkei 225 down 1.01% [10] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. saw significant drops, with Alibaba down 8.45% and Tencent down 3.55% [11] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached a new high of $4060 per ounce before retreating, while silver also saw gains [14] - Oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude dropping 5.43% to $58.17 per barrel, marking a five-month low [14]

Industry Dynamics - Nvidia is hosting the 2025 Global Summit on Open Computing, and Oracle is unveiling its AI World Conference [7] - The 138th Canton Fair will be held in three phases in Guangzhou [7] - A revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law will take effect on October 15, enhancing fair competition rules in the digital economy [7] - TSMC is set to announce its earnings [8] - The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference will take place in Beijing [8] Company News - Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology-B (02575.HK) is set to be listed on October 15 [9] - Yunji (02670.HK) will be listed on October 16, along with earnings announcements from China Tower and Fuyao Glass [10] - Zijin Mining will release its earnings on October 17, and Haixi New Drug (02637.HK) will be listed [11]

Core Insights - TSMC is set to hold an earnings call on October 16, with strong demand for its upcoming 2nm capacity, leading major clients like Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek to fully book the capacity for next year [1] - The company is expected to see capital expenditures in 2026 exceed NT$3 trillion, marking a new record [1] - TSMC's 2nm production facilities in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung are in trial production, with a yield rate nearing 70%, and mass production is anticipated to begin by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - TSMC's initial monthly production capacity for the 2nm process is projected to reach 40,000 wafers by the end of the year, with expectations to increase to nearly 100,000 wafers by the end of next year as additional facilities come online [1] - The company is currently in a quiet period before the earnings call, but supply chain sources indicate that all 2nm capacity has been booked by major clients [1] - The demand for advanced packaging is also rising, with TSMC's overall advanced packaging monthly capacity expected to exceed 150,000 units next year [2] Group 2 - TSMC plans to continue expanding its overseas facilities, alongside increasing production capacity at its Hsinchu and Kaohsiung sites, which will contribute to a significant rise in capital expenditures in 2026, potentially surpassing the current range of US$38 billion to US$42 billion [2] - The company is expected to maintain high utilization rates for its advanced packaging processes, driven by increased demand from clients like Apple and AMD [2] - The overall outlook for TSMC remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in both production capacity and capital expenditures [2]

Core Insights - The demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) remains strong, leading to full capacity utilization for TSMC's advanced packaging in the coming year [1] - Major players like ASE Technology and KYEC are also experiencing significant orders, prompting them to expand production [1] - The generative AI wave initiated by OpenAI is driving explosive growth in HPC orders from companies like NVIDIA and AMD, with demand expected to last at least until the end of next year [1] Group 1 - TSMC is the sole supplier of high-performance computing capacity for NVIDIA and AMD, with its 2nm and 3nm advanced processes and SoIC, CoWoS advanced packaging fully booked [1] - ASE Technology is accelerating its advanced packaging and testing outsourcing to meet the substantial demand from AI clients [1] - ASE's subsidiary, SPIL, is set to complete its new facilities in Erlin and Douliu next year, alongside the acquisition of a facility in Kaohsiung, enhancing its operational capacity [1] Group 2 - KYEC has successfully secured a major testing order from NVIDIA for high-performance computing, with GB200/300 orders currently in mass production [2] - The testing capacity for NVIDIA's upcoming Rubin platform is expected to commence by the end of this year [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macro trends and their influence on asset prices and investor behavior, particularly in the context of equity analysis and research [1]. Group 1: Professional Background - The expert has over 10 years of experience in asset management, focusing on equity analysis, macroeconomics, and risk-managed portfolio construction [1]. - The professional background includes advising on and implementing multi-asset strategies, with a strong emphasis on equities and derivatives [1]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The goal of sharing insights is to make investing accessible, inspiring, and empowering for fellow investors [1]. - The expert encourages building confidence in long-term investing through shared knowledge and collaboration [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of China's new export controls on rare earth elements, particularly in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the potential risks and adjustments that companies may need to make in response to these regulations [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Semiconductor Industry - The new export controls from China are the strictest to date, targeting rare earth minerals essential for semiconductor production, such as precision lasers and magnets [2]. - China dominates the global supply of rare earth elements, with over 90% of the mining and processing of critical elements like dysprosium, terbium, and gadolinium occurring within its borders [2]. - Companies like ASML, a leading supplier of chip lithography machines, are assessing the potential disruptions, as their machines rely on rare earth magnets, which could lead to price increases if supply is restricted [2][3]. Group 2: Broader Implications - Rare earth elements are crucial not only for semiconductors but also for electric vehicles, wind power, and defense sectors, indicating a widespread impact across various industries [3]. - Major chip manufacturers, including Intel, TSMC, and Samsung, rely on ASML's equipment, and any disruption in rare earth supply could affect the entire value chain from chemicals to tool manufacturing [3]. - The U.S. government is reviewing the implications of these new regulations, which were implemented suddenly to control global technology supply, prompting companies to reassess their dependencies on Chinese rare earths [3].

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is considered a 'Strong Buy' due to its effective management during the AI revolution, positioning the company to capitalize on emerging opportunities [1] Company Analysis - TSMC has demonstrated stellar execution in the context of the AI revolution, which is crucial for its growth and market positioning [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for semiconductor technology driven by advancements in AI [1] Investment Perspective - The author has a long position in TSMC shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The insights provided aim to be accessible for investors of all experience levels, emphasizing a collaborative exploration of market opportunities [1]