人事变动 - UBS Group 日本全球市场联席主管 Naohiro Kuroda 离职 [1] 业务影响 - 此次离职发生在结构性投资业务团队扩张几个月后 [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group stated that the deal pipeline remains very strong and healthy [1] - The IPO pipeline is in place, indicating readiness for market activity [1] - The market and companies are currently in a wait-and-see mode, suggesting a cautious approach to new investments [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group expressed support for the simplification of regulatory measures in the United States [1] - In contrast, UBS is moving in the opposite direction regarding regulations in Switzerland [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of UBS Group emphasized that uncertainty is worse than any specific issue, such as tariffs [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a broader concern in the financial industry regarding the impact of uncertainty on market stability and investment decisions [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group highlighted significant opportunities in the U.S. wealth management sector [1]

金十数据7月9日讯，瑞银策略师在一份报告中表示，该行已在10年期美债收益率达到4.40%时平仓了原 有的做多头寸，但预计未来收益率进一步上升后将重新入场。瑞银最初于5月底建立该头寸，当时10年 期美债收益率为4.51%。随后，在上周非农就业数据发布前，该行将止损位收窄至4.40%。报告指出： 我们认为未来可能会出现更合适的时机再次做多美债久期，但市场需要更清楚地理解美国就业市场的走 势、"大而美"法案的影响，以及在没有美元走强的情况下更高关税对债市的冲击。 美国10年国债收益率 瑞银：已平仓美债多头头寸，静待更高收益率再入场 ...

瑞银集团对全球多国中央银行管理层的一项最新年度调查结果显示，将近半数受访央行认为美国可能重 组其联邦债务。同时，超过七成受访央行将美国特朗普政府的关税政策等视为最大风险。报道指出，几 乎所有受调查央行都在追求储备 资产多样化，几乎所有受调查央行都看好黄金。67%的受调查央行认 为，从现在至2029年左右，黄金将是表现最佳的资产，而这一比例在2024年调查中仅为21%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest report addresses ten key global economic concerns, highlighting the complex challenges facing the global economy, including tariff impacts and dollar depreciation [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Global Growth - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. are equivalent to a 1.5% GDP tax on importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion [2][3]. - UBS's global growth tracking shows a mere 1.3% annualized growth rate, placing it in the 8th percentile historically [5]. - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data post-tariff announcements, with hard data showing a 3.6% annualized growth while soft data reflects only 1.3% [2]. Group 2: Dollar Depreciation - UBS holds a cyclical bearish view on the dollar but does not see it as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [10]. - The dollar's depreciation is driven by increased demand for hedging against dollar declines, a cyclical slowdown in the U.S. economy, and improving growth trends in other regions [10]. - Foreign investors hold $31.3 trillion in U.S. long-term securities, with a potential $1.25 trillion in dollar sell-off if hedging ratios increase by 5% [10]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the July CPI data, with a lag of 2-3 months observed in previous tariff implementations [14][13]. - The 10% general tariff is anticipated to have the most inflationary effect, similar to past experiences [14]. Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Outlook - The majority of changes in the U.S. budget deficit stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about long-term supply of U.S. Treasuries [23][24]. - UBS estimates that the 10-year Treasury yield's bottom should be around 2.75% even in tight conditions [26]. Group 5: Global Central Bank Responses - The actual impact of tariff shocks has differed significantly from expectations, leading to a shift in central bank policies [46]. - Since April 2, developed market one-year interest rates have decreased by an average of 30 basis points, while emerging markets have seen a decline of about 50 basis points [46]. Group 6: China's Economic Stimulus - China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% and announced moderate policy stimulus measures, with fiscal deficits expected to expand to 1.5-2% of GDP [51]. - UBS anticipates further fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year, potentially exceeding 0.5% of GDP, with additional interest rate cuts expected [55][56].

Group 1 - UBS's report addresses ten challenging questions from investors regarding global economic conditions and strategic outlook [1] - The report highlights that current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, with global growth tracking at a mere 1.3% year-on-year, placing it in the 8th lowest historical percentile [1] - The report indicates that the recent dollar sell-off is not indicative of a long-term depreciation trend, as it lacks key elements seen in previous cycles, such as improved economic growth in other regions [2] Group 2 - The initial impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation data is expected to manifest in the July CPI report, with significant effects potentially delayed by one to two months [3] - There is a notable discrepancy between reported trade data and container shipping data, suggesting that foreign exporters are not significantly lowering prices to absorb tariff costs [4] - The U.S. budget deficit is primarily influenced by the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about supply issues persisting, but historical demand fluctuations are expected to absorb any supply increases [5] Group 3 - Evidence suggests a reduction in foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets, with April data indicating asset sell-offs, although the continuation of this trend remains uncertain [6] - The U.S. stock market typically outperforms during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is largely driven by the U.S. economy, with European markets showing unexpected resilience [7] - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to provide a 45 basis point boost to economic growth by 2026, despite initially increasing the deficit [9] Group 4 - Central banks globally are adjusting their policies in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of 1-3 rate cuts, while the Fed faces a dilemma balancing inflation and employment concerns [10] - China has implemented fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 1.5-2% of GDP, with further monetary easing anticipated, including a potential 20-30 basis point rate cut [11]

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Global Economy - Current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, and even with a trade agreement, it is unlikely that tariffs will decrease significantly [1] - Global growth tracking estimates a current annual rate of only 1.3%, which is at the 8th lowest percentile historically [1] - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data following tariff announcements, with a peak gap not seen in 27 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - UBS is bearish on the dollar from a cyclical perspective but does not view this as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [2] - The current dollar sell-off lacks key elements that characterized past long-term declines, such as improved economic growth in other regions and reduced risk premiums [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Initial impacts of tariffs are beginning to show in private sector data, but delays in transmission to official consumer price indices are expected [3] - Significant effects on CPI from tariffs are anticipated to manifest in July's data, which will be released in August [3] Group 4: Global Exporters' Response - Evidence of a "tariff rush" in Q1 indicates that trade volumes have not yet stabilized despite price increases [4] - There is little evidence that foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, and the impact of dollar depreciation on their profits is noted [4] Group 5: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Global Interest Rates - The majority of changes in budget deficits stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with no fundamental changes expected post-election [6] - Concerns about supply issues persist, but historically, demand fluctuations have been more significant than supply [6] Group 6: Capital Flows from the U.S. - There is a widely accepted view that foreign investors are reducing exposure to U.S. assets, supported by April's international capital flow data [7] - The ongoing decline of the dollar suggests that foreign exchange hedging may be a driving factor behind this trend [7] Group 7: U.S. vs. European Stock Markets - U.S. stock markets typically perform better during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is primarily driven by the U.S. economy [8] - Comparisons reveal that U.S. valuations are exceptionally high while European markets appear relatively cheap [8] Group 8: "One Big Beautiful" Act's Economic Impact - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase deficits before 2026, with a total reduction of $0.4 trillion over ten years [8] - The act is expected to provide a boost of approximately 45 basis points to economic growth by 2026 [8] Group 9: Central Banks' Response to Tariff Escalation - Central banks have shifted their views due to the absence of retaliatory measures and dollar depreciation, with expectations of 1-3 policy rate cuts [9] - The current situation is viewed as simpler than a "stagflation" scenario, allowing for potential easing policies [9]