【导读】美国货运巨头UPS拟裁员2万人 中国基金报记者 安曼 特朗普关税引发大规模裁员的第一个受害者出现了！ 据新华社报道，美国航运巨头联合包裹（UPS）周二宣布，今年将裁员2万人，并在6月底前关闭73栋办公楼，以提高美国业务的利润率和效率。 UPS指出，此次业务重构与零售巨头亚马逊业务量减少相关。计划通过成本削减，帮助公司减少35亿美元成本支出。同时，UPS还撤回了今年的财务指 引，强调特朗普关税引发的宏观环境不确定性导致公司无法提供预测。 "在过去的100多年里，世界还没有面临过如此巨大的潜在贸易影响。"该公司首席执行官卡罗尔·托梅 (Carol Tomé）在财报电话会议上表示。 史上规模最大的裁员 此次裁员是继去年早些时候裁减1.2万人后的又一轮大规模人员调整，也是UPS历史上规模最大的一次裁员。 UPS首席执行官卡罗尔·托梅表示，鉴于宏观经济环境的不确定性，UPS重组网络并降低成本的举措可谓恰逢其时。关税是一大不确定因素。 今年1月，UPS与亚马逊达成原则性协议，到2026年6月将其运输量削减50%以上，亚马逊曾占据UPS约12%的收入。 彼时，卡罗尔·托梅表示，减少与亚马逊的合作是为了避免收益递减， ...

Core Viewpoint - UPS announced plans to lay off 20,000 employees to reduce costs, reflecting broader economic challenges faced by various companies in the first quarter of the fiscal year [1] Group 1: Company Actions - UPS is implementing a significant workforce reduction of 20,000 employees as part of its cost-cutting measures [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - In the first two weeks of the earnings season, approximately 40 companies globally have withdrawn or lowered their earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a trend of caution among major corporations [1] - Companies that adjusted their earnings outlook include General Motors, Volvo, Kraft Heinz, Logitech, and JetBlue, highlighting a widespread impact across various sectors [1]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The S&P 500 index is perceived to have peaked this year, with 93% of investors expecting it to remain below 6000 points in the next 12 months, and 40% predicting it will stay between 5000-5500 points [1] - Concerns about trade wars and tariffs are leading to expectations of economic stagnation, with 61% of investors anticipating stagflation in the U.S. economy over the next year [1][2] - The Trump administration's tariff policies are projected to reduce U.S. GDP growth expectations to 0.5% by 2025, with tariffs causing production costs to rise by 5%-15% for companies reliant on imported materials [2] Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - Despite overall market pessimism, 41% of investors remain optimistic about the "Mag-7/GenAI theme," indicating a willingness to invest in technology giants [1] - Alibaba's Qwen3 series models have been released, showcasing significant advancements in AI capabilities and a reduction in deployment costs, making it competitive against top models like OpenAI's [3][4] - The technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to continue attracting investment, with a focus on the performance and strategic developments of major players [4][10] Group 3: Corporate Performance and Strategic Challenges - Apple's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to slightly exceed market expectations, but investors are more focused on strategic issues such as tariff risks and AI strategy [5][6] - BP reported a 49% decline in first-quarter profits, attributed to weak oil prices, while the CEO remains optimistic about the company's strategic adjustments [7][8] - UPS is exploring the deployment of humanoid robots in its logistics network, reflecting a strong interest in automation within the logistics industry [9][10]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 increasing for the sixth consecutive day, closing at 40,527.62 points (up 0.75%) and 5,560.83 points (up 0.58%) respectively [1] - European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.72% and France's CAC40 down 0.24% [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 86.0, the lowest level since May 2020, reflecting growing concerns over tariffs and economic outlook [4] - Job vacancies in the U.S. dropped to the lowest level since September of the previous year, indicating weakened labor demand amid economic uncertainty [5] Corporate Developments - UPS announced a significant layoff of approximately 20,000 employees, marking it as the first major U.S. company to implement large-scale layoffs due to the impact of tariff-related trade slowdowns [9] - Adidas' CEO expressed that U.S. tariff policies are creating uncertainty, affecting the company's ability to adjust revenue and profit forecasts [10] - Walmart decided against disclosing tariff-related costs on product pricing to avoid aggravating the Trump administration, while striving to keep product prices low [10][11] Industry Investments - The U.S. battery industry plans to invest $100 billion over the next decade to establish a fully domestic supply chain, which is expected to create 350,000 jobs [6]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.49 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 and showing a year-over-year increase of 4.2% [1] - Revenues for the quarter were $21.5 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.1 billion but reflecting a 0.7% decline year over year [1] Financial Performance - U.S. Domestic Package revenues reached $14.46 billion, a 1.4% year-over-year increase, driven by air cargo growth and a 4.5% rise in revenue per piece, despite a decline in volume [3] - The segment's operating profit (adjusted) grew 19.3% year over year to $1.01 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 7% [3] - International Package division revenues totaled $4.37 billion, up 2.7% year over year, supported by a 7.1% increase in average daily volume, although adjusted operating profit fell 4.1% to $654 million, with a 15% operating margin [4] - Supply Chain Solutions revenues decreased 14.8% year over year to $2.71 billion due to the divestiture of Coyote, with adjusted operating profit down 55% to $98 million and an adjusted operating margin of 3.6% [5] - The overall adjusted operating margin for UPS was 8.2% [5] Strategic Outlook - CEO Carol Tomé emphasized the company's commitment to leveraging its integrated network and trade expertise to navigate the dynamic trade environment, while also focusing on cost reduction and network reconfiguration [2] - UPS is not providing updates to its previously issued consolidated full-year outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainties [6] Industry Context - UPS holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook in the current market [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from increased e-commerce, automation, and outsourcing trends, which may enhance its performance [7]

Financial Performance - Revenue decreased slightly by 0.7% Y/Y, from $21706 million in 1Q24 to $21546 million in 1Q25[21, 32] - Non-GAAP adjusted operating profit increased by 0.9% Y/Y, from $1747 million in 1Q24 to $1763 million in 1Q25[21, 32] - Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin increased by 20 bps Y/Y, from 8.0% in 1Q24 to 8.2% in 1Q25[21, 32] - Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS increased by 4.2% Y/Y, from $1.43 in 1Q24 to $1.49 in 1Q25[21, 32] Segment Performance - U S Domestic revenue increased by 1.4% Y/Y, from $14300 million in 1Q24 to $14500 million in 1Q25[39, 41] - U S Domestic non-GAAP adjusted operating profit increased by 19.4% Y/Y, from $0.8 billion in 1Q24 to $1.0 billion in 1Q25[21, 40, 41] - International revenue increased by 2.7% Y/Y, from $4300 million in 1Q24 to $4400 million in 1Q25[44] - International non-GAAP adjusted operating profit decreased by 4.1% Y/Y, from $0.7 billion in 1Q24 to $0.7 billion in 1Q25[44] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue decreased by 14.8% Y/Y, from $3200 million in 1Q24 to $2700 million in 1Q25, impacted by a $563 million reduction in revenue from Coyote[45] - Supply Chain Solutions non-GAAP adjusted operating profit decreased by 55.0% Y/Y, from $218 million in 1Q24 to $98 million in 1Q25[45] Strategic Initiatives and Outlook - The company expects to deliver approximately $1 billion in savings from "Efficiency Reimagined"[24] - The company plans $3.5 billion in cost reductions in 2025[47, 50] - The company is not providing updates to the previously issued full-year consolidated outlook due to market uncertainty[30, 52] - The company expects U S Domestic average daily volume to be down approximately 9.0% Y/Y in 2Q25[53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q1 2025 was $21.5 billion, a decrease of 0.7% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [7][30] - Consolidated operating profit increased by 0.9% to $1.8 billion, with an operating margin of 8.2%, up 20 basis points from the previous year [7][30] - Diluted earnings per share rose by 4.2% to $1.49 [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Domestic segment operating profit increased by $164 million year-over-year, with an operating margin expansion of 110 basis points [8] - Total U.S. average daily volume (ADV) decreased by 3.5%, with ground ADV down 2.5% and air ADV down 9.6% [32] - International segment ADV increased by 7.1%, with export ADV growing by 9.3% year-over-year [38][39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - SMBs accounted for 31.2% of total U.S. volume, the highest concentration in ten years, driving changes in overall volume and revenue quality [34][19] - U.S. import volume is approximately 400,000 pieces per day, representing less than 2% of total global ADV [21] - Revenue from China to U.S. trade lanes represented 11% of total international revenue, with other trade lanes to the U.S. accounting for 17% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing a significant network reconfiguration, including 164 operational closures, to optimize capacity and reduce dependency on labor [14][43] - The strategic focus includes improving revenue quality and expanding in healthcare, international, B2B, and SMB markets [18] - The company aims to achieve $1 billion in savings through the Efficiency Reimagined initiative, which targets process improvements and cost reductions [17][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the uncertain market, emphasizing the agility of their integrated network [28] - The company is not providing updates to the full-year outlook due to market uncertainties but is focused on executing strategic and financial goals [27][50] - Management highlighted the importance of modeling different scenarios to adapt to rapid shifts in business conditions [26][50] Other Important Information - The company plans to close 73 buildings by June 2025 as part of its network reconfiguration [43][48] - The first quarter saw $2.3 billion in cash from operations and $1.5 billion in free cash flow [42] - The company is leveraging next-gen brokerage technology to assist customers in navigating tariff changes [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cost savings from the $3.5 billion target - Approximately $500 million of the $3.5 billion cost savings was realized in Q1, with expectations for ramp-up in subsequent quarters [60][78] Question: Automation and efficiency initiatives - The company is exploring automation in various operations, aiming for significant cost savings and reduced labor dependency [70][74] Question: Impact of tariffs on SMBs - SMBs are facing challenges due to tariffs, with many being single-sourced from China, leading to uncertainty in the marketplace [80][81] Question: International volume growth outlook - The company anticipates a shift in trade flows, with potential growth opportunities outside the U.S. despite current uncertainties [89][90] Question: Domestic business performance and pricing strategies - The GroundSaver product has seen an intentional decline in volume as the company adjusts its cost structure and focuses on revenue quality [94][95]

Core Insights - UPS is undergoing significant restructuring to enhance long-term profitability amid a challenging macro environment, focusing on controlling internal factors and executing strategic initiatives [1][4][12] Operational Changes - The company plans to close 164 operations and 73 buildings by the end of June to eliminate redundant infrastructure and realign capacity with demand [2] - UPS expects to reduce operational hours by approximately 25 million and cut around 20,000 positions, while continuing investments in automation and technology [3] - A planned volume reduction from Amazon is expected to exceed 50% by June 2026, reflecting a shift away from low-margin accounts [3][4] Financial Performance - UPS' first-quarter U.S. domestic revenue rose 1.4% to $14.5 billion, driven by air cargo increases and a 4.5% rise in revenue per piece, marking the strongest growth rate in eight quarters [6] - International revenue increased 2.7% to $4.4 billion, supported by a 7.1% rise in average daily volume, although non-GAAP operating profit fell 4.1% due to shifts toward more economical services [7] Strategic Initiatives - Under the "Efficiency Reimagined" initiative, UPS aims for $1 billion in savings in 2025 and a total of $3.5 billion in cost reductions by year-end [6] - New services like SurePost Final Mile delivery and Ground Saver are being introduced to enhance competitive positioning and cater to cost-conscious customers [10][11] - The acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group is intended to strengthen UPS' healthcare logistics capabilities, addressing a growing segment in global supply chains [11] Market Dynamics - SMBs now account for 31.2% of total U.S. volume, diversifying UPS' customer base away from major retailers [5] - The company is closely monitoring potential trade policy adjustments, particularly in the U.S.-China corridor, with international revenues expected to decline about 2% due to weakening demand [8]

Company Actions - United Parcel Service (UPS) announced it will cut approximately 20,000 jobs, representing about 4% of its workforce, and close 73 facilities to reduce costs amid economic uncertainty and a potential decrease in business from its largest customer, Amazon [1][5] - UPS previously reached an agreement with Amazon to reduce shipping volume by 50% by the second half of 2026, with Amazon accounting for 11.8% of UPS' overall revenue in 2024 [5] Economic Context - A slowdown in global trade is expected to decrease the demand for shipping services, which could negatively impact parcel delivery companies [2] - UPS CEO Carol Tome highlighted that the current trade environment presents unprecedented challenges not seen in over a century [2] Financial Implications - UPS anticipates expenses between $400 million and $600 million related to separation benefits and lease-related cuts in 2025 following previous workforce reductions [6] - The company is also facing a decline in volume from e-commerce sellers linked to China, such as Temu and Shein, due to new tariffs on previously duty-free goods [9] Strategic Initiatives - To assist customers with tariff and trade policy changes, UPS launched a website providing updates and expert connections [9] - UPS introduced a new Global Checkout service that displays customs fees and duties on international purchases at checkout [10]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) plans to cut 20,000 jobs and close 73 buildings due to weakened demand from Amazon and the impact of tariffs, expecting to save $3.5 billion this year [1][3]. Group 1: Job Cuts and Cost Savings - UPS announced a reduction of 20,000 jobs as part of its strategy to manage costs amid declining demand [1][5]. - The company anticipates saving $3.5 billion this year through these job cuts and the closure of 73 leased and owned buildings by the end of June [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Projections and Economic Environment - UPS projects expenses between $400 million to $600 million in 2025 related to separation benefits and lease costs [2]. - The company is not updating its full-year forecast due to economic uncertainty but is implementing cost-reduction measures [3][7]. - UPS reported first-quarter revenue of $21.5 billion, exceeding expectations, with revenue in its US segments growing 1.4% to $14.46 billion despite overall volume declines [13][14]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs and Market Dynamics - The company is facing reduced deliveries from Amazon, which accounted for 11.8% of its revenue last year, and is also impacted by tariffs affecting trade with China [4][7]. - The tariffs, including a 145% rate on Chinese goods, are expected to slow trade and affect parcel delivery firms as consumers reduce purchases from overseas [7][12].