中泰期货红枣市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 现货价格（主产区） 本页数据来源:Mysteel我的农产品 中泰期货整理 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 主产区成交价格（元/公斤） 阿克苏 阿拉尔 喀什 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 喀什通货（元/公斤） 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 2020年度 2019年度 本周盘面价格下跌后在疆客商采购积极性较低，多观望等待集中下树，卖方挺价情绪松动，价格小幅松动。 主产区阿克苏地区通货主流价格参考6.00-7.00元/公斤，阿拉尔地区通货主流价格参考6.30-7.50元/公斤， 喀什地方价格在6.90-7.50元/公斤，若羌8.50-10.00元/公斤，和田地区通货主流价格8.00-8.50元/公斤， 且末7.50-8.50元/公斤，和田及且末地区收购基本结束，产区原料收购以质论价，维持优质优价原则，产区 下树进度在3成左右。据产地权威人士反馈喀什兵团及麦盖提地方货源以本地 ...

中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 2025-11-09 本周观点 本页数据来源:卓创资讯 Mysteel 中泰期货整理 | 利多因素 | 1、新季苹果价格优果优价明显；2、全国苹果质量同比下降明显；3、新季库存同比降低 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、市场消费偏差；2、市场替代水果价格偏低 | | | 东西部产区的晚熟富士收购进入尾声。山东产区：栖霞80#一二级价格3.75元/斤。蓬莱80#一二级3.75元/斤。西部产区：洛川70#半 | | 市 场 | 商品价格4.15元/斤；11月5日，甘肃静宁产区晚富士75#以上价格5.5元/斤（来源：Mysteel）。 | | 基 | 库存方面：据统计，截止到2025年11月6日全国冷库库存比例约为51.68%，库存量为682.74万吨，较去年同期（20241107）低10.62个 | | 本 | | | 面 | 百分点，存储量较去年同期低17.04%。（来源：卓创数据）。截至2025 ...

中泰期货尿素周报 ——尿素生产成本上移 尿素出口再度放开 2025 . 1 1 . 9 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | 2025年10月31日-11 | 2025年11月7日-11 | 2025年11月14日-11 | 2025年11月21日-11月27 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月6日 | 月13日 | 月20日 | 日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量： | 19.35 | 19.86 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复4家，本 周预计1家企业计划检修，3家停车企业恢复生 | | | 万吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | | | | | | 2025年第45周(20251031-1106)，复合肥本周期产能利 ...

去库不及预期，继续偏弱震荡 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 近期甲醇港口库存略微累库，盘面仍受限于偏高的库存，价格偏弱运行。基本面环比改善不明显，甲醇 自身供应压力较大，后期伊朗是否限气影响产量以及时间节点不好预测，还需要进一步观察甲醇进口货到港 情况。 甲醇近期围绕伊朗货到港是否顺利等因素的博弈比较激烈，导致甲醇行情波动较大。甲醇现在最大的压 力是库存比较高，但是后期有冬季限气影响产量等利多因素，不宜过分看空，建议暂时偏弱震荡思路。 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年11月9日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 单边策略：震荡偏弱思路，等待反弹驱动出现后少量偏多配置。 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 现货市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证 ...

供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年11月09日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 78.92 | 79.65 | 0.74 | 83.37 | 83.51 | 本周检修装置较少，产量小幅度增 加，未来两周装置检修减少，产量可 | | 产量 | | | | | | | 能继续增加。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, this week's production increased slightly, with some previously shut - down plants resuming production. Next week, production is expected to increase slightly. Export orders increased slightly this week. Domestic demand is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low. The overall profit of the upstream continues to deteriorate, and the mid - stream mainly focuses on arbitrage operations. Suggested strategies include paying attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities, short - term bearish allocation after rebounds, and reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread [6][10]. - For caustic soda, this week's production increased slightly due to the resumption of many shut - down plants, and production is expected to remain high next week. The national inventory decreased slightly this week and is expected to increase next week. The profit of caustic soda plants with external sales of liquid chlorine has worsened, and the comprehensive profit of enterprises with supporting PVC has continued to decline. Suggested strategies include reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread [106][109][110]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production this week was 49.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.52 million tons. The export volume remained at 5.75 million tons per week on average. The apparent demand was 45.19 million tons, slightly higher than expected. The total inventory decreased by 0.23 million tons. Some related product prices changed, such as a 70 - yuan increase in the price of Shaanxi semi - coke and a 50 - yuan decrease in the price of Wuhai calcium carbide [6][7]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis fluctuated weakly, with the East China calcium carbide method basis changing from - 81 to - 70. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated weakly, changing from - 292 to - 303 [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of the upstream continued to deteriorate. For example, the calcium carbide production profit in Shaanxi decreased from - 454 to - 510 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from - 359 to - 470 yuan/ton. The export profit improved slightly, with the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 821 to 897 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.4 Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to reach 49.95 million tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 42.72 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase slightly [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - Caustic soda production this week was 83.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 million tons. The export volume remained at 6.52 million tons per week on average. The apparent demand was 78.25 million tons. The national inventory decreased by 1.22 million tons (in terms of 100% caustic soda). The price of Shandong liquid chlorine decreased significantly, from 250 to 1 yuan/ton [106][107]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of 32% caustic soda weakened, with the 01 - contract basis changing from 34 to 32. The 1 - 5 spread was recommended for reverse arbitrage, and the spread changed from - 173 to - 169 [109]. 3.2.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The profit of caustic soda plants with external sales of liquid chlorine worsened, and the comprehensive profit of enterprises with supporting PVC continued to decline. For example, the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from - 359 to - 470 yuan/ton [109]. 3.2.4 Market Expectation - Next week, caustic soda production is expected to be 85.76 million tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 77.53 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase [106].

Group 1: Overall Inventory Information - Total inventory this week is 3,504,599 tons, compared to 3,654,107.9 tons last week, with a decrease of 149,509 tons. The出库 is 534,147 tons and the入库 is 384,638 tons [2] Group 2: Inventory by Country - Gabon: This week's inventory is 218,300 tons, a decrease of 63,100 tons from last week, accounting for 6.23% of the total [2] - Australia: This week's inventory is 67,300 tons, accounting for 10.31% of the total [2] - South Africa: This week's inventory is 361,198 tons, compared to 365,279 tons last week, with a decrease of 4,081 tons. The出库 is 71,381 tons [2] - Ghana: This week's inventory is 229,878 tons, last week it was 246,359 tons, with a decrease of 42,074 tons. It accounts for 70.30% of the total [2] - Other: This week's inventory is 218,074.9 tons, compared to 152,477 tons last week, with an increase of 87,460 tons, accounting for 6.79% of the total [2] Group 3: Graphical Data - There are graphs showing the入库,出库, and inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port for different types including oxidation ore (Gabon + Australian ore), South African semi - carbonate powder + block, and Ghanaian block ore from 2023 - 2025 [6]

General Information - Report Title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan [2] - Qualification Number: F3075616 [2] - Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] Core Data Silicon Manganese - National weekly production: 20.19 million tons, a decrease of 5,845 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.59% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 9.70 million tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.81% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 4.75 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.47% [3] - Guangxi weekly production: 1.07 million tons, an increase of 455 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.99% [3] - Guizhou weekly production: 1.61 million tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.43% [3] - Yunnan weekly production: 0.99 million tons, a decrease of 6,160 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.64% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 2.07 million tons, a decrease of 140 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.09% [3] Silicon Iron - National weekly production: 11.41 million tons, an increase of 910 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 3.68 million tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.25% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 2.98 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.22% [3] - Shaanxi weekly production: 1.84 million tons, an increase of 140 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.45% [3] - Qinghai weekly production: 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.82% [3] - Gansu weekly production: 1.18 million tons, an increase of 280 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.30% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 0.01 million tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.00% [3] Data Notes - The update date of the Steel Union terminal is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week [6] - Data sources: Mysteel; compiled by Zhongtai Futures [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are in a trend of short - selling, some are oscillating with a bearish or bullish bias, and some are in a neutral oscillation state. Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are classified as bearish, oscillating, and bullish [2][4]. - The A - share market shows a unilateral upward trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising. The bond market still has upward momentum. The black market maintains a bearish view in the medium - term (winter). Different commodities in other sectors have their own trends and investment suggestions [10][11][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - China aims to achieve the goals of Hainan Free Trade Port construction, and the Ministry of Commerce responds to the issue of Nexperia. Chongqing adjusts its administrative divisions, and new stock indices are released. The polysilicon industry may undergo major integration, and China promotes international cooperation in new - energy storage. The US employment situation is severe, leading to an increased expectation of interest - rate cuts. Indonesia restricts nickel ore processing, Saudi Aramco cuts crude oil prices for Asia, and the US updates its critical minerals list [6][7][8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The index weakens during the capital rotation. The A - share market rises unilaterally, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December exceeds 70%. The fourth - quarter monetary policy is expected to be further loosened [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The implementation of monetary policy intensification is in progress, and bonds still have upward momentum. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the market discusses the reform of public - fund fees. The symbolic significance of the central bank's bond - buying is more important than the actual scale [11]. Black Iron Ore and Steel - In the medium - term (winter), a bearish view is maintained. The market may return to fundamentals in the short - to - medium term. The winter market may rebound first and then decline, and the willingness to store steel for the winter may be affected. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is acceptable. The supply of molten iron remains high, and the valuation of steel products is at a low level [12][13]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink in the short term, but the weakening demand for steel during the off - season may limit the price increase [15]. Ferroalloys - The black sector shows a short - term increase, but the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and short - selling at the upper limit of the range is advisable [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - High - level short positions should be held. The domestic zinc inventory decreases, and the zinc price oscillates at a high level. The downstream demand is cautious, and the global zinc price shows a downward trend [20]. Lithium Carbonate - The expected resumption of production of the Jianxiawo lithium mine may affect market sentiment, but the short - term supply - demand situation is still strong, and the price is expected to rise after the expected resumption of production [21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon oscillates within a range with no prominent supply - demand contradiction. Polysilicon also oscillates within a narrow range, with the lower limit supported by policy expectations and the upper limit restricted by the progress of capacity mergers [22]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton price oscillates at a low level due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand. The domestic cotton price rebounds but is limited by the actual supply [26]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is bearish due to increasing supply and falling international sugar prices. However, the cost of domestic sugar production provides some support, and short - selling or waiting is recommended [28]. Eggs - The egg futures are strong due to the expectation of capacity reduction. The spot price may rise slightly in November, but the increase is expected to be limited. An oscillating trading strategy is recommended [30]. Apples - The apple price oscillates strongly. The acquisition of late - maturing Fuji apples is in the later stage, and the price is stable. The inventory is lower than last year [32]. Corn - The corn market has large differences in the futures market. The spot price rebounds, but the supply pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure in November and the release of policy - supported wheat [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The weakening of the spot market in the sales area affects the purchase price of new dates, and the futures market oscillates [34]. Pigs - The supply pressure of pigs continues, and the spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The oil price is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and OPEC +'s measure to postpone production increase has limited support for the oil price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the oil price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The focus of trading is the supply - side concerns after the sanctions on Russia [38]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to large supply pressure. However, the losses of production enterprises may provide some support [38][39]. Rubber - The rubber price rebounds due to weather influence. It is in the seasonal peak season, but there is still upward pressure. Appropriate reduction of short - call and short - put positions is recommended [42]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - selling positions in the synthetic rubber market are closed, and the price rebounds slightly. However, caution is still needed when going long, and the short - call strategy can be continued [43]. Methanol - The methanol market fluctuates greatly due to factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods, gas restrictions in Iran, and inventory reduction in China. The short - term contract is recommended to be traded with a bearish oscillation strategy, and the long - term contract can be slightly long - positioned after the emergence of a rebound driver [44][45]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation. The electricity price provides some support for the futures price. An oscillating trading strategy is recommended [46]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate with an enlarged amplitude. The oil price is in an oscillating state, the inventory reduction speed is expected to slow down, and geopolitical factors may increase the price volatility [46][47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain may be strong in the short term. The supply - reduction expectation of PX is increasing, and the prices of PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip follow the upward trend [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations. A bearish view is maintained in the medium - to - long term. The price of LPG is expected to weaken relative to crude oil next week [49]. Pulp - The pulp market is stable. The spot trading improves slightly, but the factory demand is difficult to increase significantly. Short - selling at a high level can be considered if the port inventory reduction continues [50]. Logs - The log market is bearish. The spot price decreases, and the inventory is expected to increase. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance [50]. Urea - The release of the fourth - batch of urea export quotas may boost the market sentiment in the short term. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the release of bullish sentiment [50][51][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, with the storage and new - energy sectors leading the gains. The domestic economic data in October is expected to face a decline in pressure, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [9]. - For the black industry, the medium - term (winter) view remains to be bearish on rallies. The coal - coke prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the prices of iron alloys are recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term [14][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, the demand for lithium carbonate continues to support the price, and the zinc price can be considered to be shorted on rallies. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to trade within a range [20][21][24]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton and sugar are under supply pressure, eggs may be strong in the short - term but the increase is limited, and the prices of other products such as corn, jujubes, and live pigs are affected by various factors and need attention [27][30][33]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, and the prices of various chemical products such as plastics, rubber, and methanol are affected by factors such as supply and demand and cost, with different trends and trading suggestions [39][42][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China has announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including tariff adjustments and the relaxation of export controls on some US entities [6]. - The US Supreme Court is debating the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff measures, and the results may be announced in December. The US federal government's "shutdown" has broken the historical record, which may reduce the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter [6][8]. - The ADP employment and service industry PMI in the US in October were better than expected, which added uncertainty to the Fed's decision on whether to cut interest rates in December [8]. - Guizhou Moutai has launched a second - round share repurchase and announced a mid - year profit distribution plan. The scope of institutions participating in the stock repurchase and increase loan business is expected to expand [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened low and closed high, with the storage and new - energy sectors leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3969.25 points, and the daily trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan. The domestic economic data in October is expected to face a decline in pressure, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [9]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and loose, and the price is stable. The treasury bond futures opened high and closed low, showing a seesaw effect with the A - share market. The symbolic meaning of the central bank's bond - buying is more positive than the actual scale, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [11]. 3.4 Black Industry 3.4.1 Iron Ore and Steel - The spot prices of steel and iron ore fluctuated. The prices were affected by factors such as environmental protection restrictions and steel mill maintenance. In the medium - term, the winter market may show a pattern of first rising and then falling, and the steel price is expected to have limited rebound space. The medium - term view is to be bearish on rallies [12][13][14]. 3.4.2 Coal - Coke - The short - term iron - making volume has a downward space, and the coal - coke prices continue to fluctuate at a high level. In the short - term, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the weakening demand for steel during the off - season will restrict the price [15]. 3.4.3 Ferroalloys - Affected by the price increase of动力煤 and lump coal, the cost of ferrosilicon is expected to increase, but the black sector is weak, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.5.1 Zinc - The zinc price fluctuated. The import of refined zinc in China decreased in September. The downstream demand is cautious, and the price can be considered to be shorted on rallies [20]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - The demand for lithium carbonate continues to increase, and the supply increase is less than the demand increase. Although the expected resumption of production of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine affects the market sentiment, the strong demand in the short - term still supports the price [21]. 3.5.3 Industrial Silicon - The contradiction of industrial silicon is not prominent. It is affected by the macro - environment and coal prices. It is expected to trade within a range, and small - position long positions can be tried at the lower end of the range [24]. 3.5.4 Polysilicon - The spot trading of polysilicon is in a stalemate. The market is affected by policies and fundamentals, and it is expected to trade within a range [25]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Cotton - The supply of cotton is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. 3.6.2 Sugar - The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is affected by factors such as import cost and domestic production cost. It is recommended to operate with a short - selling strategy or wait and see [30]. 3.6.3 Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong due to the expectation of "capacity reduction". The spot price may be strong in November, but the increase is limited. It is recommended to operate according to the range - trading idea [33]. 3.6.4 Apples - The acquisition of apples is in the middle - late stage, and the price is stable. The market is expected to be strong with fluctuations [35]. 3.6.5 Corn - The spot price of corn has rebounded to some extent, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. 3.6.6 Jujubes - The spot price of jujubes in the sales area is weak, which affects the new - jujube ordering price. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 3.6.7 Live Pigs - The supply pressure of live pigs continues, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [38]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Industry 3.7.1 Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased, and the oil price is under pressure. The OPEC+ measure to delay the increase in production in the first quarter has limited impact, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [39]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price fluctuates with the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term trading focus is on the impact of sanctions on the supply [41]. 3.7.3 Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a bearish - on - rallies trading idea [42]. 3.7.4 Rubber - The raw material price in the Yunnan region of China has slightly decreased, and the price in Thailand is firm. The fundamental situation is still slightly weak, and it is recommended to hold short - call option strategies [43]. 3.7.5 Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly due to the decline in raw material prices. It is recommended to be cautious about going long [44]. 3.7.6 Methanol - The methanol market fluctuates greatly due to factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods and potential plant maintenance. The supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to be bearish on rallies in the near - term and wait for a rebound in the far - term [46]. 3.7.7 Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a range - trading idea [48]. 3.7.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range due to factors such as the change in oil price focus, production increase, and geopolitical risks [48]. 3.7.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain lacks a clear driving direction and is expected to follow the cost - end movement. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity of ethylene glycol [50]. 3.7.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is affected by different factors. The price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term [52]. 3.7.11 Pulp - The pulp spot price is stable, and the market has rigid demand. The price is expected to be supported but has limited upside space. It is recommended to establish long positions at low prices after observing the port inventory and spot trading [53]. 3.7.12 Logs - The spot trading of logs is weak, and the supply pressure exists. The price is expected to be under pressure [54]. 3.7.13 Urea - The spot price of urea has increased, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading idea [55].