Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the market trends of various futures products are judged, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long [3]. - Based on quantitative indicators, the market trends of futures products are classified into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [5]. - The macro - economic situation involves international and domestic policies, corporate events, and economic data, which have an impact on the financial and commodity markets [9][10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - WEN Technology proposes to hold constructive talks on the dispute over Nexperia to seek a long - term solution [9]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasizes China's economic confidence and development prospects [9]. - Trump may approve the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responds [9]. - China and Russia conduct the 10th joint air strategic cruise [9]. - A polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is established [10]. - The Fed may cut interest rates, and market expectations for future interest rate cuts vary [10][13]. - ADP data shows an increase in US private employment, and JOLTS job vacancies exceed expectations [10]. - Zelensky is ready for elections in Ukraine and requests assistance [10]. - The Bank of Japan will gradually adjust monetary policy [11]. - The current high price of iron ore is due to capital games and speculation, and the price may be suppressed by inventory and demand [11]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a wide - range oscillating strategy. The market is affected by policies, economic data, and interest rate expectations. The short - term market is expected to continue oscillating and recovering [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - market center is reached, short - and medium - term bonds may stabilize and rebound, while ultra - long - term bonds are still cautious in the medium term. The market is affected by capital supply, policies, and institutional behavior [15]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - Policy focuses on quality and efficiency, and the market is affected by demand, supply, and inventory. Steel prices are likely to remain weak [15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with potential for a phased rebound in the far - month 05 contract, but the rebound space is limited [19]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, consider a long - biased strategy at low prices; for silicomanganese, a short - biased strategy at high prices is recommended [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, take a wait - and - see approach; for glass, consider a long - position after the market sentiment stabilizes [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [23]. Lead - It is recommended to hold previous short positions. Lead prices may oscillate in the short term, and there is a risk of a further decline in the operating center [25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it will oscillate widely, and the long - term demand is positive for prices [27]. Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see a reduction in production in the north. Pay attention to environmental protection and cost factors, and the market may shift to the game of polysilicon production reduction expectations [28]. Polysilicon - Pay attention to the actions of the platform company. The spot price is expected to remain strong, and the futures price is expected to be strong under policy expectations [29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply pressure, and the price is expected to bottom out. Look for low - buying opportunities [30][31]. Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish. The price is expected to oscillate and decline. It is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term [32][33]. Eggs - Near - month contracts are under pressure, and far - month contracts are supported by supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. Apples - The price is expected to oscillate [36]. Corn - Pay attention to spot price changes and short at high prices [37][38]. Red Dates - Buy far - month contracts at low prices [39]. Live Pigs - The spot market has strong supply and weak demand. Hold short positions in near - month contracts and control risks [39][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply is in excess, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [42][43]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical factors and the Fed's interest - rate decision [44]. Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short after the price rebounds [45]. Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. Consider selling call options at high prices [46]. Synthetic Rubber - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Wait and see [47]. Methanol - Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and far - month contracts can be considered for long - positions after inventory reduction [48][49]. Caustic Soda - Keep a short - term oscillating strategy. Observe investment opportunities in far - month contracts after contract roll - over [50]. Asphalt - The demand is approaching the end, and the price is expected to fluctuate more. The focus is on the post - winter - storage price bottom [50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term price is affected by costs. Pay attention to the spread opportunities between PTA and PF and the reverse spread of ethylene glycol [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price is expected to change from high - level oscillation to a decline [53]. Pulp - After the positive news fades, the price may oscillate weakly. Short the 03 contract or sell call options at high prices [55]. Logs - The price is under pressure in the short term, and the basis provides some support [56]. Urea - The spot market is expected to remain stable and weak. Keep an oscillating strategy [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, various commodities are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories [5]. - Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish groups [9]. - The macro - economic situation shows that China's trade data is good, and policies are expected to be more proactive and moderately loose. The global economic situation also has an impact on the market [11]. - Different trading strategies are proposed for various commodities in different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries [16][20][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The Politburo meeting emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on domestic demand [11]. - China's trade data from January to November 2025 shows a 3.6% year - on - year increase in total import and export value, with exports up 6.2% and imports up 0.2%. In November, the growth rate rebounded [11]. - Experts expect China to continue an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate no lower than 4% and an increase in new government debt [11]. - There are discussions about "relaxing restrictions on brokers", and the industry's leverage will be kept within a reasonable range [12]. - The November 2025 passenger car market retail shows a decline in fuel - powered cars and an increase in new energy vehicles. The 2026 car market may face great pressure [12]. - The global storage market is expected to enter a "triple super - cycle" in 2026, with a 98% year - on - year growth in market size [12]. - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's meeting [12]. - Trump plans to sign an AI regulatory order and launch an agricultural aid program. The US Labor Bureau will delay the release of October PPI data [13]. - Japan's Q3 GDP is revised downwards, and the selling of Japanese government bonds is accelerating [13][14]. 2. Macro - Finance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to adopt a wide - range oscillating approach. A - shares rose with increased trading volume, and various sectors showed different performances. Policy factors and market data affect the market [16]. 2.2 Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - market center is reached, medium - and short - term bonds may stabilize and rebound, while ultra - long - term bonds are neutral in the short term and cautious in the medium term [18]. 3. Black 3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy - wise, focus on the Central Economic Work Conference and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's deployment. Fundamentally, steel demand is weak in the building materials sector but better in the coil sector. Supply may decline, and inventory is high. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish [20]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply may contract due to safety regulations, and demand is affected by the steel industry's profit. There may be a rebound in the far - month 05 contract, but the space is limited [22]. 3.3 Ferroalloys - For silicon iron, a bullish view is maintained; for manganese silicon, a bearish view is held in the medium term. The market is affected by ore supply and production capacity [23]. 3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for glass, a long - position can be considered after the market stabilizes. Supply and demand factors affect the prices [25]. 4. Non - Ferrous and New Materials 4.1 Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and factors such as production reduction and macro - policies affect the price [27][28]. 4.2 Lead - Lead prices may stop falling and rise in December. Supply is tight in some areas, and demand from battery factories may increase [29][30]. 4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Prices may oscillate widely in the short term. Supply is increasing, but long - term demand is strong [31]. 4.4 Industrial Silicon - Affected by the new delivery brands of polysilicon, industrial silicon may adjust weakly. Downward space is limited, and short - term long - positions can be considered after an over - decline [32]. 4.5 Polysilicon - There may be a correction due to new delivery brands. Low - buying opportunities can be considered after the correction [33]. 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Cotton - Short - term supply pressure is high, and demand is not yet strong. Low - buying opportunities can be sought [36]. 5.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate downward. Supply is increasing, and cost provides some support [38]. 5.3 Eggs - Near - month contracts may oscillate. Far - month contracts may be supported by the expected decline in inventory but are under pressure due to high valuations [40]. 5.4 Apples - Prices are expected to oscillate. Sales are affected by the supply of other fruits [42]. 5.5 Corn - For the 03 contract, a short - position can be considered. The market is affected by supply - demand mismatch and inventory changes [43]. 5.6 Red Dates - A long - position can be considered for far - month contracts. Prices in production and sales areas are stable [44]. 5.7 Pigs - The spot market is bearish. Supply is increasing, and demand is not strong enough. Short - positions can be held for near - month contracts [45]. 6. Energy - Chemical 6.1 Crude Oil - Supply is in excess. The end of the conflict may lead to a decline in geopolitical premiums. Prices are expected to oscillate [47]. 6.2 Fuel Oil - Prices follow the trend of crude oil. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The focus is on geopolitical factors [48]. 6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak demand. A bearish - oscillating approach is recommended [49]. 6.4 Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken. Prices are expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are relatively balanced [50]. 6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Cost and demand affect the market [52]. 6.6 Methanol - Near - month contracts may oscillate weakly, and far - month contracts can be considered for long - positions after de - stocking [53]. 6.7 Caustic Soda - A short - term oscillating approach is recommended. Spot prices are weak, and futures contracts are affected by inventory and demand [55]. 6.8 Asphalt - Demand is approaching the end - stage, and the focus is on the winter - storage price bottom. Prices are affected by crude oil and market expectations [56]. 6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - Terminal demand is weak. Opportunities in PTA - ethylene glycol spreads and ethylene glycol backwardation can be considered [57]. 6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Prices may turn weak after a high - level period. Supply and demand factors affect the market [58]. 6.11 Offset Printing Paper - A bearish approach is recommended. Supply is in excess, and cost provides some support [59]. 6.12 Pulp - Prices may oscillate weakly. Import volume is increasing, and spot trading is weak [60]. 6.13 Logs - The market is bearish. Inventory is expected to increase, and prices are under pressure [61]. 6.14 Urea - Spot prices may oscillate weakly. Futures prices are affected by spot trading and coal prices [62].

库存占比 2025/12/5 本周库存 上周库存 出库 入库 变动 总 40497 3485361 3444864 531358 571855 ■加蓬 加蓬 288097 30100 174897 144797 8. 27% 143300 ■澳大利亚 澳大利亚 279726 D ■南非 306428 77578 50876 -26702 8. 03% ■加纳 南非 2275956 2265715 166336 204765 10241 65. 30% ■其他 加纳 510019 12. 81% 446519 63500 -63500 0 其他 219402 141317 -24339 195063 193844 5. 60% 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 == 天津港锰矿入库:合计:万吨 100 90 80 70 60 50 = FPA = 2 = 2 = 2 = 2 = 8 = 8 = 8 = 8 = 8 = 8 = 8 = 1 = 7 = 天津港锰矿出库:合计:万吨 65 55 45 35 25 下午夜之前 2019年 2017年 11月 2017 11:58 2017 ...

交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 8 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/12/8 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 玉米 | 工业硅 | 红枣 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 碳酸锂 | 沥青 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 纸浆 锰硅 | 多晶硅 原油 | 玻璃 沪深300股指期货 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 焦炭 | 液化石油气 | 二债 | | | | | 焦煤 | 燃油 | 五债 | | | 客服电话： | | 甲醇 | 锌 | 三十债 | | | | | 塑料 | 合成橡胶 | 十债 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 尿素 | | | | | | | 橡胶 | | | | 公司网址： | | | | | | | | | | 铅 | | | ...

黑色供应周报-铁合金 2025年12月5日 中泰期货研究所 黑色分析师:董雪珊 从业资格号:F3075616 交易咨询从业证书号 Z0018025 | | 罐 | | 万吨 | | | 健鉄 | 万吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | | 全国 | 18.80 | (6825) | (14.21) | 全国 | 10.88 | 1540 | 2.07 | | 内蒙古 | 9.67 | (910) | 0.16 | 内蒙古 | 3.80 | 0 | 4.06 | | 宁夏 | 4.19 | (1505) | 12.71 | 宁夏 | 2.72 | 1050 | 10.27 | | 广西 | 0.95 | (1260) | 0.00 | 陕西 | 1.89 | 490 | (0.06) | | 贵州 | 1.21 | (2800) | (16.45) | 青海 | 1.39 | 0 | (12.85) | | 云南 | 0.68 | (560 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. Some sectors are affected by policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, while others are influenced by geopolitical and macro - economic factors. For example, the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - long term, while the LPG market is currently strong but may not be sustainable [10][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Some commodities are judged as trend空头 (such as烧碱), some as震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and trend多头. For example,烧碱 is in a trend - bearish state, while中证1000指数期货 is in an oscillating and bullish - biased state [2]. - **Quantitative Analysis**: Some commodities are classified as偏空 (e.g.,沪锌), 震荡 (e.g.,沪金), and偏多 (e.g.,焦煤) based on technical indicators such as volume and price [4]. 2. Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and temporarily wait and see. A - share market shows differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3875.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.01%. The trading volume is 1.56 trillion yuan. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is further heating up [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to have a wide - range oscillating trend. Pay attention to the curve steepening in the medium term. The capital is loose, and the bond market has been falling, with the long - end driving the short - end interest - rate curve to become steeper [9]. 3. Black Commodities - **Steel and Ore**: In the short term, they will oscillate and consolidate, and in the medium - long term, maintain a bearish view when the price is high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the steel mills' profits are at a low level. The iron ore is relatively strong, while the raw materials such as coal and coke are weak [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: In the short term, they may oscillate and consolidate. Pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety supervision, and changes in downstream molten - iron output [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron is stronger than manganese silicon. It is recommended to hold the long - silicon - iron and short - manganese - silicon position. For silicon iron, hold the long position, and for manganese silicon, maintain a bearish view when the price is high [14]. 4. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Wait and see. The supply has recovered, but the upstream's willingness to start production has weakened after the cost increase. - **Glass**: In the short term, try to go long when the price is low, and leave the market flexibly when the sentiment changes. The market expects an increase in cold - repair of the supply side, and pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans [15]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [17]. - **Lead**: The social inventory has decreased to a 15 - month low. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions cautiously [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it will oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand is good [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will continue to oscillate, and it is possible to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices. Polysilicon will also oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see and operate cautiously [22]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the demand has not fully recovered. The high cost supports the price to oscillate and rebound [24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure. The domestic new - crop production is increasing, and the import cost is low. It is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term [25]. - **Eggs**: For the near - month contracts, adopt an oscillating strategy. The 01 contract is recommended to stop loss and wait and see. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible shortage in inventory but are under pressure at the current high valuation [26]. - **Apples**: The price will oscillate. The出库 volume has slightly decreased recently, and the spot price is stable [27]. - **Corn**: The short - term 01 contract will maintain a high - level oscillation, and the far - month contracts are likely to be weak [29]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable [30]. - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. Hold short positions in the near - month contracts. In the long term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to the future pig price [31]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although there is short - term support, it is in a long - term downward trend. The supply - demand relationship is expected to be oversupplied, and the short - term upward space is limited [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical influence [34]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it will oscillate weakly. It is recommended that industrial customers hedge in time [35]. - **Rubber**: The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. Unilaterally, wait and see [36]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the sentiment fades, it will oscillate. Be cautious about chasing up or down, and wait and see unilaterally [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - month contracts will oscillate weakly, and the far - month contracts may be slightly bullish if the inventory is removed smoothly [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, maintain a bearish and oscillating view, and avoid going long in the near - month contracts [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The supply - demand structure is generally stable, and the price is mainly determined by the cost. Pay attention to the interval opportunities of long TA and short PF and ethylene glycol reverse arbitrage [41]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The price increase is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to short at high prices [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: Temporarily wait and see. When the delivery profit is obvious, long positions can take profit appropriately [44]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure [44]. - **Urea**: The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures market is sensitive to the short - term spot trading sentiment. Adopt an intraday oscillating strategy [45].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 4 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/12/4 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | | | 趋势多头 | | | | 碳酸锂 | 纯碱 | 纸浆 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 短纤 | 液化石油气 | 玻璃 | | | 0531-81678626 | | PTA | 沪深300股指期货 | 玉米 | | | | | 橡胶 | 原油 | 尿素 | | | 客服电话： | | 合成橡胶 | 铅 | 苹果 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 乙二醇 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | | 对二甲苯 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 公司网址： | | 瓶片 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | www.ztqh.com ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 3 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/12/3 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | | | | | | | 多晶硅 | 中证500股指期货 | 碳酸锂 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 合成橡胶 | 上证50股指期货 | 白糖 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 纸浆 | 中证1000指数期货 | 棉花 | | | | | 铅 | 棉纱 | | | | 客服电话： | | 沥青 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 锌 | 二债 | | | | | | 燃油 | 烧碱 | | | | 公司网址： | | | | | | | | | 液化石油气 | 橡胶 | | | | www.ztqh ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A shares showed a unilateral upward trend, with technology themes being active and sector rotation accelerating. The overall economy has short - term fluctuations, but the domestic industrial upgrade - driven economic transformation continues. [10] - In the futures market, different varieties have different trends based on fundamental and quantitative indicators. For example, some are in a trend of short - term shock, while others are in a long - term upward or downward trend. [2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5. DeepSeek released and open - sourced two models. The approval of public - offering funds has an inverse - cycle adjustment mechanism. [6] - In November, the average price of new homes in 100 cities increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the average price of second - hand homes decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. Shanghai's second - hand housing market had a "tail - end rally". [6][7] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in November was below 50. The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest - rate hike. South Korea's exports in November increased year - on - year. Silver prices soared to a record high. [7][8] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a shock - based strategy and wait and see for the time being. A shares rose unilaterally, with technology themes being active. The economic data in October showed a short - term decline, but the industrial upgrade is continuing. [10] Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market may continue to fluctuate widely. The market is affected by factors such as expected central bank bond - buying and bond - fund redemptions. It is recommended to buy medium - and short - duration 10 - year bonds on dips and be cautious about ultra - long - duration bonds. [11][12] Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Pay attention to the impact of macro - level meetings on market expectations. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron ore is relatively strong. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term. [13] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety inspections, and changes in iron - water production. [13][14] Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, there is a risk of increased surplus, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities. For silicon iron, it is recommended to hold long positions. [15] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see. For glass, it is advisable to try to go long on dips. Pay attention to supply - side changes such as production cuts and new - capacity launches. [16] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short on rallies. [18] Lead - The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. [19][20] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it will fluctuate widely. The long - term demand is good, but the short - term upward space is limited. [21] Industrial Silicon - The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will continue to fluctuate. [22] Polysilicon - It will continue to fluctuate. It is advisable to try to buy put options in the short term and stop profits in time. [23] Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply pressure and weak demand, but the high cost supports the price. The price is expected to rebound. [25][26] Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the price, and it is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term. [27][28] Apples - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The purchase of late - maturing Fuji has ended, and the market is affected by factors such as inventory and competing fruits. [29] Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch", and the long - term supply pressure is large. [30] Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see for the time being. The prices in production and sales areas are stable at a low level. [31] Pigs - In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is limited. In the long term, the decline in the number of sows is beneficial to future prices. [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price is in a long - term downward trend. Although there are short - term positive factors, the supply - surplus problem is prominent. [35] Fuel Oil - The price will follow the trend of crude oil, with supply being loose and demand being weak. [36] Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy after rallies. [37][38] Rubber - The price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to factors such as raw - material supply and weather. [39] Synthetic Rubber - It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is advisable to short on rallies. [40] Methanol - In the short term, use a shock - based strategy for near - month contracts and a slightly bullish strategy for far - month contracts if inventory reduction is smooth. [41][42] Caustic Soda - The spot price is weakening. It is advisable to adopt a short - term weakly bearish strategy. [43][44] Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter - storage game. [45] Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - demand structure is okay, and it will follow the cost trend in the short term. [46] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price increase is difficult to sustain. It is advisable to short on rallies. [47] Pulp - The fundamentals are stable, and it will enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. [48] Logs - The price is under pressure in the short term and is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance. [49] Urea - The spot price is expected to be slightly bullish, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [50]

宏微观共振下铜价突破上行 沪铜周度报告·2025年12月01日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 Part 01 周度综述 ➢ 周度综述（11.24-11.28） ➢ 本页数据为2025.11.24-2025.11.28日期内周度数据对比 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨） | -42.32 | -42.75 | -0.43 | -1.02% | 本周铜精矿现货成交较为冷清，现货TC小幅下行，市场重点仍聚焦与长单谈判。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 2 ...