交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 2026/2/3 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 棉纱 | 沥青 | | | | 液化石油气 | 棉花 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 尿素 | 十债 | 硅铁 | | | | 红枣 | 五债 | 苹果 | | | | 生猪 | 三十债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | PVC | 燃油 | | | | | 铁矿石 | 二债 | | | | | 甲醇 | 白糖 | | | | | 塑料 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 工业硅 | | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 烧碱 | | | | | | 橡胶 | | | | | | 碳酸锂 | | | | | | 锰硅 | | | | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | | | 纸浆 | | | | | | 纸浆 | | | | | | 焦煤 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 2 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2026/2/2 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農筋 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 多晶硅 | 沥青 | 合成橡胶 | | | 尿素 | 橡胶 | 燃油 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 工业硅 | 烧碱 | | | | 红枣 | 纸浆 | 二债 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 原木 | 十债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 三十债 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 沪深300股指期货 | 五债 | | | | 甲醇 | 上证50股指期货 | 苹果 | | | | 塑料 | 白糖 | 硅铁 | | | | 液化石油气 | 焦炭 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro and Financial Markets**: In the stock market, the short - term style may shift to large - cap stocks; in the bond market, the short - term rebound may continue, and the central bank's monetary policy is turning more accommodative [10][11]. - **Black Commodities**: The black commodity market will generally remain volatile. Steel will fluctuate in the short term, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Lithium carbonate prices may rise after a short - term correction; industrial silicon will run with an upward limit due to pessimistic expectations; polysilicon will continue to fluctuate under strict supervision [21][22][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level and strong consolidation phase; domestic sugar is under pressure; egg prices may decline after the peak of pre - festival stocking; apple prices may be strong; corn prices have large differences in the market; jujube prices will be weak and volatile; hog prices will see a fierce spot - market game [25][28][31][33][34][35][36]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks; fuel oil prices follow crude oil; plastics may have a limited rebound; rubber has support; synthetic rubber is expected to be strong; methanol's fundamentals are improving; caustic soda is bearish; asphalt prices follow crude oil; PVC has a risk of correction; the polyester industry chain is supported by cost; LPG is strong in the short term; pulp will fluctuate; logs are expected to be strong; urea is in a strong and volatile state [38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][49][50][51][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China and the UK have reached a series of positive outcomes, including the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership, the establishment of a financial working group, and a reduction in whisky import tariffs [6]. - SpaceX and xAI are in talks to merge for an IPO [6]. - China has released a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [6]. - There is a possibility of a new round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [6]. - China's Spring Festival cultural and tourism consumption month has started, with about 30,000 cultural and tourism consumption events and over 360 million yuan in consumption subsidies [7]. - The photovoltaic industry needs to "anti - involute" and return to rational development [7]. - The weighted average interest rate of new commercial personal housing loans in Q4 2025 was 3.06%, and Shanghai has extended the personal housing property tax pilot policy [7]. - The US trade deficit in November 2025 was $56.8 billion, a 95% increase from the previous month [7]. - South Africa is considering imposing a 50% tariff on imported vehicles from China and India [8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to trade in a narrow range. The short - term style may shift to large - cap stocks due to the strong performance of liquor and real - estate stocks [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has improved, and the short - term rebound may continue. The central bank's MLF operation in January has increased, indicating a shift to a looser monetary policy [11]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - Macro policies meet market expectations, and there is little possibility of new policies. Steel production is less likely to be affected by policies. Steel inventories are increasing slightly, and the fundamentals are acceptable, but there is a risk of long - term accumulation in the off - season. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is relatively loose. The black market will generally remain volatile, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, domestic mine production will be restricted. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand contradiction may improve, which may support spot prices [16]. Ferroalloys - There is still a small supply gap in ferrosilicon before the daily production in the main production areas increases significantly. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to hold short positions established at high levels and not to enter new positions unilaterally [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - The soda - ash and glass industry chain follows the market atmosphere. Soda - ash supply is at a high level, and new production capacity is expected to increase. The glass market has expectations of both cold repair and restart of production lines. It is recommended to wait and see for now [18][19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the growth of demand and supply - side disturbances, the price center of lithium carbonate may rise after a short - term correction, and it will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [21]. Industrial Silicon - The current situation has improved, and it will run strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited by pessimistic expectations. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound [22]. Polysilicon - Under strict regulatory restrictions, the market will continue to fluctuate. The "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry will continue, and the inventory reduction expectation in the first quarter is improving, but the high inventory still suppresses the upside [23]. Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply surplus, but the expected reduction of long - term supply and the contradiction between pre - festival replenishment and declining production may keep Zhengzhou cotton in a high - level and strong consolidation phase. It is recommended to trade in the short term [25]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is under pressure from both external and domestic supply. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the pre - festival stocking of eggs may peak and then decline. The spot price may fall, and the futures contract for the post - festival off - season is under pressure, but the downside is also limited [31]. Apples - The apple market may run strongly. The pre - festival stocking is ongoing, and the high - quality apple prices will remain firm, while the prices of ordinary and low - quality apples may be under pressure [33]. Corn - The market has large differences. The short - term price is supported by pre - festival replenishment, but the upside is limited. It is necessary to focus on the concentrated selling in March and the opportunity to go long on dips in the far - month contracts [34]. Jujubes - The jujube market will maintain a weak and volatile state. The new - season jujubes have advantages in price and quality, and the sales in the off - season are okay, but the overall demand is expected to remain stable [35]. Hogs - The hog market has both increasing supply and demand, and the spot - market game is fierce. It is necessary to focus on the impact of weight reduction before the festival on the spot price. It is recommended to go short on the near - month contracts on rallies [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US pressure on Iran continues, and the supply surplus problem is still severe. Geopolitical risks are high, and there is a risk of short - term market fluctuations [38]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will follow crude oil prices. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the inventory is at a high level [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. Although the upstream is in heavy losses, which may support the price, the new production capacity will limit the rebound space, and there is a risk of correction [40]. Rubber - The pre - festival replenishment by downstream enterprises and the upcoming shutdown of overseas production areas support the price. It is recommended to close out the profitable positions of shorting out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [41]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to be strong due to the tight supply of butadiene in the first half of the year. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [42]. Methanol - The fundamentals of methanol are improving in the long term, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short term and consider going long after the inventory at the port decreases smoothly [43][44]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda industry has high production and inventory. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is poor, and there is a possibility of production reduction. It is recommended to take a bearish view [45]. Asphalt - The asphalt price will follow crude oil prices and may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of raw - material discounts and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase [46]. PVC - The previous rise of PVC was driven by the expectation of capacity reduction and the improvement of export fundamentals. However, the core supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved, and there is a risk of correction. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The near - end fundamentals of the polyester industry chain are weak due to the seasonal off - season, but the cost support limits the downside. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct positive spreads between 5 - and 9 - month contracts [49]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG is supported by the high import cost due to geopolitical issues. In the short term, it can run strongly, but in the long term, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to the expected decline in demand [50]. Pulp - The pulp market has a large intraday fluctuation. The spot - market trading sentiment has weakened, but the price is still supported by the stable fundamentals and the expected increase in the overseas price. It is recommended to go long on dips if the downstream purchasing intention improves [51]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are strong, and the spot price has stabilized. The product price has risen due to the increase in raw - material costs. The market is expected to maintain a supply - demand balance, and the price may fluctuate strongly [52]. Urea - The urea futures market is expected to be strong and volatile. The spot - market price has risen, and the futures price is affected by other commodities. It is necessary to focus on the improvement of spot - market liquidity [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, and energy - chemical. It presents trend judgments and trading strategies for different futures products based on fundamental and technical indicators, as well as macro - economic and geopolitical factors. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Based on Fundamental and Technical Indicators 3.1.1 Fundamental Indicators - Trend空头: Eggs, zinc, etc. [4] - Oscillation with a bearish bias: Red dates, Shanghai Composite 50 Index Futures, etc. [4] - Oscillation: PVC, sugar, etc. [4] - Oscillation with a bullish bias: White sugar, five - year treasury bond futures, etc. [4] - Trend bullish: Cotton, ten - year treasury bond futures, etc. [4] 3.1.2 Technical Indicators - Bearish: PTA, soybean meal No.2, etc. [6] - Oscillation: Rebar, coking coal, etc. [6] - Bullish: Manganese silicon, hot - rolled coil, etc. [6] 3.2 Macro - economic News - Trump threatened Iran again, and Iran was on high alert [8]. - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%, and there was uncertainty in the economic outlook [8]. - There was news about changes in quantitative stock trading rules, but no relevant requirements were received by private equity funds [8]. - By the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [9]. - Some real - estate enterprises were no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators, but troubled enterprises still had reporting obligations [9]. - The Bank of Japan might continue to raise interest rates if the outlook was in line with expectations [9]. - Futures exchanges tightened risk - control measures, such as adjusting margin levels and price limits [9]. 3.3 Macro - finance 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The upward trend of IC/IM may continue, and trend - following strategies are recommended. The A - share market was volatile, with resource stocks rising and the photovoltaic industry chain adjusting. The market turnover increased, and small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks [11]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment improved, and the short - term rebound trend may continue. The capital market became looser, and the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection increased, indicating a shift towards a looser monetary policy [12]. 3.4 Black Commodities 3.4.1 Coal and Coking - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. Coal mine production increased slightly, and the first round of coke price increase was basically implemented. However, the coking profit shrank, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3.4.2 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, there was a small supply gap before the daily production in the main production areas increased significantly, and it was recommended to go long on dips. For manganese silicon, it was recommended to hold short positions from previous highs and not to enter new positions unilaterally [15]. 3.4.3 Soda Ash and Glass - It was recommended to wait and see. The supply of soda ash was at a high level, and there was an expected increase in new capacity. The market expected the glass supply to resume production. The supply - demand contradiction in soda ash was difficult to reverse, and the inventory of glass needed to be digested [16]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.5.1 Zinc - The zinc price was still strong, but it might be affected by the possible decline of precious metals. It was recommended to wait and see or re - enter short positions. The domestic zinc inventory decreased, but the downstream demand was weak [18][19]. 3.5.2 Lead - It was recommended to wait and see and hold previous short positions. The lead inventory increased, and the price continued to decline. The production of secondary lead enterprises decreased, and the downstream demand was limited [19][21]. 3.5.3 Lithium Carbonate - After a short - term correction, the price center of lithium carbonate may still rise, with wide - range oscillations. The demand increased, and the supply was disturbed, but market supervision was strict [22]. 3.5.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may run strongly in the short term but was pressured by the pessimistic outlook. It was recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound. Polysilicon was under strict position limits and was expected to oscillate. It was necessary to wait for the guidance of the industry meeting [23]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton entered a high - level and strong consolidation state. It was recommended to conduct short - term trading. The short - term supply was loose, but the long - term supply was expected to shrink. The USDA report was positive, and Brazilian cotton production decreased [25][26]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar was under pressure from supply and weak demand. It was recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - level range. The global sugar supply surplus was still a concern, and the domestic supply pressure increased during the seasonal production period [27][28]. 3.6.3 Eggs - The spot price of eggs may weaken before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to have a bearish view on the main 03 contract. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, but it was expected to decline. The far - month contracts may be weaker due to increased replenishment [29][30]. 3.6.4 Apples - The apple futures price may run strongly. The apple出库 was slightly lower year - on - year, and the sales area market had stable demand and higher prices. The Spring Festival stocking continued, and the high - quality apple prices remained firm [31][32]. 3.6.5 Corn - The corn futures price was highly controversial. It was recommended to focus on the port collection situation and conduct short - term trading. The spot price was stable, and the price was supported by pre - festival replenishment but was restricted by policy grain release and future import substitution [32]. 3.6.6 Red Dates - It was necessary to closely monitor the market performance during the consumption peak season. The red dates market was expected to oscillate weakly. The new - season red dates had price and quality advantages, but the consumption growth was limited [33]. 3.6.7 Pigs - The supply and demand of pigs both increased, and the spot market had intense competition. It was recommended to pay attention to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price and look for opportunities to go short on the near - month contracts [34]. 3.7 Energy - Chemical 3.7.1 Crude Oil - The US pressure on Iran continued, and the supply - surplus problem was still severe. The geopolitical premium was high. The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and the international oil price rose [36]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price was mainly affected by the geopolitical situation and the oil price. The supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the price would follow the oil price [37]. 3.7.3 Plastics - Polyolefins had large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The upstream was in a loss state, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited space. It was necessary to prevent a callback [38]. 3.7.4 Rubber - The rubber price may be supported by pre - festival downstream replenishment and the upcoming off - season in overseas production areas. It was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips and pay attention to the spread between natural and synthetic rubber [39]. 3.7.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may maintain a strong trend due to the expected tight supply of butadiene in the first half of the year. It was recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the narrowing spread with natural rubber [40]. 3.7.6 Methanol - The methanol supply - demand situation improved slightly in the long term, but there was still a risk of inventory accumulation in the short term. The price may decline slightly after the geopolitical situation eased. It was recommended to reduce long positions temporarily [41]. 3.7.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda production was at a high level, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises was poor. The far - month contracts could be considered from a bullish perspective [42]. 3.7.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price followed the oil price and may oscillate strongly in the short term. It was necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the change of raw material premium [43]. 3.7.9 PVC - The recent rise of PVC was due to the expected policy of capacity reduction and increased exports. However, the core supply - demand contradiction remained. It was necessary to prevent a callback [44][45]. 3.7.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The near - end fundamentals of the polyester chain were weak due to the seasonal off - season, but the cost support limited the downward space. It was recommended to go long on dips or conduct positive spreads between May and September contracts [46]. 3.7.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price increased due to the high import cost. It may run strongly in the short term but was recommended to be observed. In the long - term, it was advisable to go short on highs [47]. 3.7.12 Pulp - The pulp market had intense long - short competition, and the price may oscillate. The spot market trading was weak, but the price was supported by the expected stable fundamentals and the high overseas prices [48]. 3.7.13 Logs - The fundamentals of logs were strong, and the spot price was stable. The finished product price increased due to the rising raw material cost. The market was expected to maintain a supply - demand balance [49]. 3.7.14 Urea - The urea futures market was expected to oscillate strongly. The spot price rose, and the futures market was affected by other related futures and geopolitical risks [50][51].

1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Fundamental Analysis - Based on fundamental factors, the trend of some commodities is judged. For example, the trend of red dates and eggs is bearish, while the trend of synthetic rubber is bullish [4]. Quantitative Analysis - Based on quantitative indicators, the trends of some commodities such as soybeans and zinc are judged to be bearish, while the trends of methanol and rubber are judged to be bullish [9]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro News - UK Prime Minister Starmer will visit China from January 28 - 31, and high - level meetings will be held to discuss bilateral relations [11]. - Trump's remarks on the US dollar caused the US dollar index to fall by more than 1%, reaching a new low in nearly four years [11]. - A new round of price hikes in the global chip industry, with significant price increases from companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, and domestic companies also raising prices [12]. - The AI assistant Clawdbot has become popular overseas, and domestic AI models are also booming [12]. - In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing a three - year decline [13]. - The impact of the Indian Nipah virus on China is relatively small, and no cases have been found in China [13]. - China's first interstellar navigation college was officially established [13]. - In 2025, the bank wealth - management market increased by more than 3.3 trillion yuan, while small and medium - sized banks' self - operated wealth management faced scale reduction or elimination [13]. - US population growth slowed down in 2025 due to a significant slowdown in immigration [14]. - Trump decided to raise tariffs on South Korean products from 15% to 25% [14]. - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement [14]. - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to a new low since 2014 [14]. - Some customers in futures trading were restricted for suspected irregularities [15]. - Citigroup and Deutsche Bank believe that gold may reach $6000 per ounce [15]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The upward trend of IC/IM may continue, and trend - following strategies are recommended. The A - share market showed an oscillating upward trend, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap stocks [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - It is recommended to wait and see. The capital market has loosened, but the cost of funds is still relatively high, and the central bank's monetary policy is turning loose [19]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - The black market will remain in an oscillating trend. Steel will be in an oscillating and consolidating state in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be short - sold on rallies [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the production changes in coal mines and the procurement progress of downstream enterprises [23]. Ferroalloys - Silicon iron is recommended to be bought on dips in the medium term, and for manganese silicon, it is recommended to hold short positions established at high levels and wait and see [24]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the production changes of the supply side of soda ash and glass [25]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see or re - enter short positions. The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, but the upward movement of precious metals may be restricted, which may drive the non - ferrous metal sector down [27]. Lead - It is recommended to wait and see and continue to hold short positions. The social inventory of lead has reached a new high in nearly two months [28]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate may move up after a short - term correction, with wide - range oscillations [30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will operate in an oscillating manner, and opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound should be awaited. Polysilicon will continue to operate in an oscillating manner, and the anti - monopoly and anti - over - competition rectification plan should be awaited [31]. Agricultural Products Cotton - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading. The short - term supply of cotton is loose, but the long - term supply may decrease, and there are contradictions between pre - festival replenishment and declining downstream production [33]. Sugar - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. Domestic sugar is under pressure from supply and weak demand during the peak season [36]. Eggs - A bearish view is recommended for the current position. The pre - festival egg inventory may peak and weaken, and the futures price has limited upward space [39]. Apples - The futures price may run strongly. The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints, and the price will oscillate in a range [40]. Corn - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to the port collection situation. The corn price is stable in the short term, and the possibility of a sharp decline before the Spring Festival is low [41]. Red Dates - The red date market will oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales situation in the peak consumption season [43]. Pigs - Pay attention to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price, and look for opportunities to short the near - month contracts on rallies [44]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of short - term market fluctuations. The supply of crude oil is in surplus, but geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium [46]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will fluctuate with the price of crude oil. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the current focus is on geopolitical factors [48]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are weak in terms of supply - demand. Although the upstream is in a state of large losses, the rebound space is limited due to the expected new - capacity release [48]. Rubber - It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. The fundamentals are stable, and pay attention to the inventory changes and downstream procurement [48]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to buy on dips. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of the year, and the price of synthetic rubber may remain strong [48]. Methanol - It is recommended to take a bearish view on the short - term correction. The supply - demand situation of methanol has improved, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month [48]. Caustic Soda - A bearish view is recommended for the near - month contracts, and a bullish view for the far - month contracts. The caustic soda market has high inventory and low profit, but there may be a turnaround in the far - month [50]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt will fluctuate with the price of crude oil and is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical factors and raw - material price changes [51]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to consider rolling long - buying at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts. The near - term fundamentals of the polyester industry chain are weak, but the cost side provides strong support [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG will remain strong in the short term, but pay attention to the negative feedback from the demand side. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try short - selling on rallies in the long term [53]. Pulp - The pulp market will have large intraday fluctuations. The spot market has weakened, but there is support from the long - term external price. It may oscillate and strengthen if the commodity sentiment improves [54]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are oscillating and strong, and the spot price has stabilized. The futures price is expected to be oscillating and strong with the improvement of commodity sentiment [55]. Urea - Urea futures are expected to be oscillating and strong. The spot market is stable, and pay attention to the improvement of future liquidity [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. For example, in the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures market needs to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes; the bond market's ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. In the black sector, the overall situation is volatile, with steel products oscillating and iron ore being relatively weak. In the energy - chemical sector, the price of energy products is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relations [15][16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Index Judgments - **Based on Fundamental Judgments**: Different futures varieties have different trend judgments, such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 for various commodities like烧碱, 二债, 上证50股指期货, etc. [4] - **Based on Quantitative Index Judgments**: There are also trend judgments for different varieties based on quantitative indicators, including偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 for commodities like豆二, 豆一, 甲醇, etc. [6] 2. Macro News - **International Trade Tensions**: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs states that China - Canada cooperation does not target any third - party [8]. - **Financial Policy**: The People's Bank of China emphasizes expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies to maintain financial stability. The central bank's deputy governor supports measures to increase the scale of RMB business in Hong Kong [8][10]. - **Market Fluctuations**: The precious metal market experiences significant fluctuations. The exchange takes measures to cool down the commodity futures market. Some companies have important developments, such as Alibaba releasing a new AI model and a large - scale financing in the AI unicorn [8][9]. - **Industry Policies**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs focuses on stabilizing beef production and milk industry relief. Tianjin optimizes housing provident fund management [10]. - **Space and Technology**: A company plans to build a space computing power network. Tencent has its own AI strategy. Humanoid robots will appear on the Spring Festival Gala [11]. - **US Government Situation**: The probability of a new US government shutdown by the end of January soars. The US durable goods orders in November 2025 show significant growth [11][12]. - **Hong Kong and OPEC+**: Hong Kong plans to increase gold storage and establish a gold trading system. OPEC+ is expected to continue the current production policy [13]. 3. Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market fluctuates downward. The style of the market is being repaired, but there is still pressure on weighted stocks. The strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes [15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. The central bank's MLF operation increases, and the monetary policy is turning loose. However, the money market is still relatively expensive [16]. 4. Black Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: From a policy perspective, the production of the steel industry is less likely to be interfered with. Fundamentally, steel stocks increase slightly, and the fundamentals are okay. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is in a volatile situation. Steel products oscillate, and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. The supply and demand situation may improve during the Spring Festival, which may support the spot price [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: The price center of silicon - based ferroalloys is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices in the medium - term and hold short positions on silicomanganese [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The market atmosphere is easing. It is recommended to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the implementation of production line changes [22]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc inventory decreases. It is recommended to wait and see or re - enter the market with short positions as precious metals may fall back and drive down the non - ferrous sector [24]. - **Lead**: The social inventory of lead increases. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions. The lead consumption market is in a downturn, and the supply is relatively tight in some areas [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may rise after a short - term correction. Attention should be paid to the possible resumption of production of mines and the impact on downstream demand [28]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may run strongly in the short term but is under pressure in the long - term. Polysilicon is in a volatile state, waiting for policy guidance [29][30]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is in a short - term consolidation state. The long - term supply is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [32]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, and the demand is not strong during the peak season. It is recommended to trade in the low - price range [34]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken. The futures price has limited upward space, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [35]. - **Apples**: The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. The price of high - quality goods remains firm, and the price of ordinary goods is under pressure [38]. - **Corn**: The corn market has large differences in the market. It is recommended to focus on the port collection situation and conduct short - term trading [39]. - **Red Dates**: The red date market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [39]. - **Pigs**: The supply and demand of the pig market both increase, and the spot market has intense competition. Attention should be paid to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price [41]. 7. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the supply is in surplus. There is a high geopolitical premium, and short - term market fluctuations should be noted [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, and the focus is on the geopolitical situation [44]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure. The upstream is in a loss state, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited space [45]. - **Rubber**: Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the approaching off - season in overseas production areas may support the price. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The supply and demand of synthetic rubber are stable and increasing. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the expectation of good fundamentals of butadiene [47]. - **Methanol**: The short - term supply and demand situation of methanol has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. In the long - term, the fundamentals are getting better, but attention should be paid to the arrival of imported goods [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market of caustic soda is bearish, but the far - month futures contract shows a strong trend [51]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt follows the trend of crude oil and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The short - term market is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to consider positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX, PTA, or MEG [53]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG is strong in the short - term, supported by import costs. However, attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [54]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp market has a lot of long - short games. The spot market trading sentiment is weakening, and the price may oscillate. If the commodity sentiment improves, it may be oscillating strongly [56]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals of logs are oscillating strongly, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly with the improvement of commodity sentiment [56]. - **Urea**: The urea futures market is expected to be strongly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the spot market liquidity [57].

需求阶段性走强，宏观继续推升锌价 中泰期货· 2026年1月26日 中泰期货研究所 王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 目 录 CONTENTS 1 02 价格 01 综述 03 供给：锌矿、锌锭 04 需求：加工、终端 05 库存 06 其他 综述 综述 | 产业数据 | | 项目 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上期 | 示期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | 在锌矿紧缺背景下,国内锌精矿加工费跌势持续,国产加工费跌至1500元/金 | | 锌精矿国产TC(元/金属吨) | 1500 | 1500 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 属吨后企稳。 | | 尽管随着前期国内冶炼厂减产和进口锌精矿比价的修复,国内锌精矿市场的供 | | | | | | | 需情绪近期有所回暖,但目前国产锌精矿加工费仅暂时出现止跌现象,并未发 进口矿贸易市场上,临近年末,市场矿贸易商多继续休假,周度进口锌精矿报 盘较少,整体成交较为清淡。 | | | | 国内锌精矿产量(月度) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend on Friday, with small - and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap blue - chip indexes falling. The market sentiment was affected by news such as the possible visit of US President Trump to China and the release of the first fine by the CSRC in 2026 [15]. - The long - end bonds may continue to rebound, and the interest rate curve may continue to flatten. The central bank's monetary policy is turning to be more accommodative, but the cost of funds remains relatively high [16]. - The black market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. Steel products may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be shorted on rallies [18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival [19][21]. - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips and hold short positions in silicomanganese [22]. - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see currently. Pay attention to the supply changes of leading enterprises and the implementation of production line changes [23]. - For non - ferrous metals, it is recommended to wait and see for zinc and lead, and hold short positions in lead. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [25][26][28]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and should wait for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound. Polysilicon should wait for guidance on anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [29]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices may be affected by supply and demand and policies. Sugar prices are under pressure, and eggs may weaken before the Spring Festival. Apples may fluctuate strongly, and corn prices are affected by inventory and policy. Jujubes may fluctuate weakly, and pork prices are affected by supply and demand [31][34][36][38][39][40][41]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand contradictions. Fuel oil prices follow crude oil. Plastics may have a short - term rebound but with limited space. Rubber can sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Methanol is recommended to be long - configured. Caustic soda has different views for near - term and far - term contracts. Asphalt prices follow crude oil. The polyester industry chain may maintain a high - level operation. LPG may be strong in the short term but with limited upside. Pulp and logs may fluctuate strongly, and urea is expected to be strongly volatile [43][46][48][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The CSRC officially released the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds, and the Asset Management Association of China released the operating rules, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026. The new rules target industry pain points such as "vague benchmarks", "style drift", and "fund blind boxes" [8]. - The CSRC issued its first fine in 2026, imposing a penalty on Yu Han for manipulating the stock price of "Doctor Glasses" [8]. - The market operation and consumption promotion work conference emphasized promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption [8]. - The CSRC is intensively investigating illegal activities in the private fund sector and will urge private institutions to rectify non - standard behaviors [9]. - The "Beijing Rocket Street" launched six platforms, aiming to form a full - chain "thousand - satellite production and launch" capacity [9]. - US President Trump said that the US is deploying troops to Iran and will impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. The US also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems [9]. - Representatives from Russia, the US, and Ukraine held their first meeting in Abu Dhabi to discuss security issues [9]. - The preliminary values of the US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in January were slightly lower than expected. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range, while the service PMI declined [10]. - The CSRC approved the registration of 20 - rubber options, low - sulfur fuel oil options, and international copper options and included 14 futures and options varieties in the scope of expanding the opening of the futures market [10]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% and raised its economic growth and inflation expectations for the 2026 fiscal year [10]. - A German lawmaker proposed that Germany should repatriate its gold reserves from the US due to the "unpredictable" policies of US President Trump [11]. - Silver prices reached a new high, with a year - to - date increase of over 40%, outperforming gold. Gold prices continued to approach $5000 per ounce [11]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend on Friday, with small - and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap blue - chip indexes falling. The market sentiment was affected by news such as the possible visit of US President Trump to China and the release of the first fine by the CSRC in 2026 [15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The long - end bonds may continue to rebound, and the interest rate curve may continue to flatten. The central bank's monetary policy is turning to be more accommodative, but the cost of funds remains relatively high [16]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - The macro - policy meets market expectations, and the possibility of policy interference in the steel production end is low. The fundamentals of steel are acceptable, with small inventory increases and good order - taking. However, downstream demand is weak, especially in the building materials sector. Iron ore supply is abundant, and its inventory is accumulating [16][17]. - The black market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. Steel products may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be shorted on rallies [18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival, which may support spot prices [19][21]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips and hold short positions in silicomanganese [22]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see currently. Pay attention to the supply changes of leading enterprises and the implementation of production line changes [23]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - As of January 22, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies due to the repeated inventory data [25]. 3.4.2 Lead - As of January 22, the lead inventory reached a two - month high. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions. Be cautious of the risk of lead price decline before the Spring Festival [26][27]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with good demand and supply - side disturbances. The market expects a narrowing of the supply surplus or even a shortage in 2026 [28]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and should wait for opportunities to sell out - of - the money call options after a rebound. Polysilicon should wait for guidance on anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The global cotton supply and demand situation is favorable, with a decrease in production and inventory. The domestic cotton supply is temporarily abundant, and attention should be paid to the impact of pre - Spring Festival restocking and policy implementation [31][33]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestic sugar is under supply pressure, and it is recommended to trade in the low - level range [34]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Eggs may weaken before the Spring Festival. The futures of the 03 contract have limited upside space, and a bearish view is recommended. However, the egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline, which may limit the downside space of futures [36][37]. 3.5.4 Apples - Apple prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the supply side providing support and the demand side constraining the upside. Attention should be paid to the terminal consumption during the Spring Festival [38][39]. 3.5.5 Corn - Corn prices are expected to be stable in the short term, supported by pre - Spring Festival restocking demand. However, the upside space is limited, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure in March [39]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [40]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The pig market has both supply and demand increases, and the spot market is in a fierce game. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on prices and consider shorting near - term contracts on rallies [41]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Products 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand contradictions. Geopolitical factors have pushed up prices, but the supply - demand situation remains weak [43]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil, and the current supply - demand situation has a marginal improvement. The focus is on the geopolitical situation in Iran [46]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Plastics have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. They may have a short - term rebound but with limited space [46][47]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Rubber can sell out - of - the money put options on dips before the Spring Festival, supported by downstream restocking and the approaching off - season in overseas production areas [48]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate upward in the first half of the year, and it is recommended to go long on pullbacks [49]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Methanol's supply - demand situation has improved, and it is recommended to be long - configured. However, there may be a short - term callback risk [50]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has different views for near - term and far - term contracts. The near - term contract is bearish, while the far - term contract is bullish [52]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow crude oil, and attention should be paid to the change in raw material discounts [53]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain may maintain a high - level operation, and it is recommended to consider low - buying and 5 - 9 positive spreads for PX and PTA [54]. 3.6.10 LPG - LPG may be strong in the short term but with limited upside. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [55]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Pulp prices may fluctuate strongly. The spot market is weak, but there is support from the expected price increase of overseas pulp [56]. 3.6.12 Logs - Logs may fluctuate strongly, with the domestic spot market remaining stable and the supply - demand situation expected to be balanced [57]. 3.6.13 Urea - Urea is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [58].

中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 2026年1月25日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC综述及平衡表 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） PVC供需小结 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 思路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 48.75 | 48.21 | -0.54 | 46.48 | 46.73 | 本周产量略微下降，但是比预测的略 高，下周部分装置临时检修，产量预 | | | | | | | | | 计小幅度减少。 | | 产量 （万吨） | 乙烯法 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the provided document about the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the macro - financial field, policies such as central bank's monetary policy and special treasury bond issuance have an impact on the economy. In various commodity markets, different varieties have different trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and geopolitical situation [10][14][17]. - For different commodities, specific investment strategies are proposed. For example, in the black market, steel is expected to oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak; in the energy - chemical market, the price of crude oil may turn weak, while some other products have their own specific trends and trading suggestions [17][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, which will drive over 460 billion yuan of total investment. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on January 23, with a net injection of 70 billion yuan [10]. - The unemployment rates of different age groups in the urban labor force in December 2025 are announced. Nine departments jointly issued an opinion to promote the high - quality development of the drug retail industry [10]. - International news includes the US - Greenland agreement, the US's attempt to subvert the Cuban regime, the US GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, inflation indicators, and the expected policy rate of the Bank of Japan [11][12]. Macro - finance Stock Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range consolidation. If there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line in the near future, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The medium - term liquidity expansion may repair the tight capital situation. The ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite [15]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The macro - policy has limited short - term impact on demand. The supply of the steel industry is relatively stable. The fundamentals of steel are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is expected to oscillate. Steel will oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream procurement and iron - making output [17]. Ferroalloys - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips in the medium term, and hold the short positions of manganese silicon established at high levels [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The demand is good, the supply is disturbed, and the market sentiment is rising. In the short term, lithium carbonate will run with a strong bias [22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and will oscillate. Wait for the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options after the rebound. Polysilicon will also oscillate, waiting for the guidance of anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [23][24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term strong consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [25]. Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand. Zhengzhou sugar is under pressure from external and domestic supply, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken before the festival. The upside of the egg futures is limited, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [30]. Apples - The apple futures may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint, and attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the Spring Festival stocking period [32]. Corn - The corn futures have large differences in the market. Pay attention to the port collecting situation, and short - term trading is recommended [33]. Red Dates - Keep an eye on the performance of the consumer market during the peak season. Currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Pigs - The market sentiment has peaked, and the breeding side is more willing to sell. The spot price may decline, and it is advisable to short the near - month contracts on rallies [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Due to the upcoming negotiation and the increase in EIA inventory, the oil price may turn weak. However, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [37]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will fluctuate with the oil price [38]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure, but the upstream losses may support the price. The short - term trend is strong, but the rebound space is limited [39]. Rubber - Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the upcoming suspension of overseas production may support the price. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [40]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene and market sentiment. It may oscillate upward in the first half of the year, and it is advisable to go long on dips [42]. Methanol - The short - term inventory of methanol is decreasing smoothly, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for the far - month contracts after the callback [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the futures can be considered from a long - position perspective [44]. Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the oil price and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market is expected to run strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider rolling long positions at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support from import costs, and the short - term downside is limited. In the long term, a light - position short - selling attempt can be considered [48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The spot price has回调, and the futures may repair the basis. The downside is limited [49]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The futures are expected to oscillate [50]. Urea - The urea futures are expected to oscillate strongly. The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [50].