1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different sectors and varieties having different investment outlooks and risks. For example, in the stock index futures, it is necessary to focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair; in the black sector, steel and ore are expected to be short - term volatile and medium - long - term bearish; in the energy sector, the rise of crude oil driven by geopolitics is limited [15][17][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China's Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full - island customs closure operation on December 18, 2025, expanding the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to more than 6,600 tariff items. China has re - implemented the export license management for steel products after 16 years and approved some rare earth export general license applications. A large gold mine was discovered in Laizhou, Shandong, with a cumulative proven gold resource reserve of over 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the national total [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. The State Administration for Market Regulation will promote the construction of a unified national market. Market institutions expect a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve - requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point interest - rate cut in 2026. The CSRC will promote the compilation and implementation of the capital market's "14th Five - Year Plan" [10]. - In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will strengthen capacity control. The next - nominee for the Fed chair may support "substantial" interest - rate cuts. Trump will sign a nearly trillion - dollar annual defense policy bill. The US November core CPI and overall CPI growth rates are lower than expected, but the reliability of the inflation report is questioned. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased [11]. - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds in October, while China decreased its holdings. The main contracts of palladium and platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had significant movements, and trading restrictions were imposed [12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair. If it is realized, the index may strengthen. A - share large and small indexes are differentiated. US economic data shows mixed performance, and domestic November macro - economic data shows a decline in most indicators. The stock market and the bond market strengthened simultaneously on Wednesday, and the market was differentiated on Thursday [15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is that medium - and short - term bonds have certain odds and may fluctuate strongly. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the central bank restarts the 14 - day reverse repurchase. The macro - policy expression in the central economic work conference is marginally relaxed, but it is not enough to drive interest - rate cut transactions in the short term. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal and bond - buying scale at the end of the month [16]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, the implementation of important meeting spirits is in line with market expectations, with no new policies and a relatively gentle policy. From a fundamental perspective, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is acceptable. The supply side may see a decline in iron - water production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The cost side is expected to continue to decrease. In the short term, steel and ore will fluctuate, and in the medium - long term, a bearish view is maintained [17]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and rise in the short term. In the medium term, the domestic mine start - up rate is restricted by policies, and in the short term, coal production is restricted by safety supervision and environmental protection. The potential negative feedback risk of weakening steel demand still restricts the prices of coal and coke. The 05 contract may have a phased rebound, but the space is limited [20]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to close out the previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. For manganese silicon, a bearish view is maintained in the medium term. The performance of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is weak, and the supply of ferrosilicon has decreased in the near two weeks, while the supply of manganese silicon has not significantly shrunk [21]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it is advisable to try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash has recovered, but the upstream start - up willingness is weak. The market has expectations for the cold - repair of glass production lines, and the follow - up should focus on the implementation of production cuts and other factors [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals show signs of weakening, but in the medium - long term, the demand is still positive. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand and the opportunity to buy on dips [24]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see production cuts. At the end of the month, attention should be paid to the supply disturbance caused by environmental protection in Xinjiang and the fluctuation of coking coal prices, which may lead to a partial repair of valuation. In the future, it will gradually shift to the game of polysilicon production - cut expectations [25]. 3.4.3 Polysilicon - The adjustment of the minimum order quantity for polysilicon futures contracts may weaken the trading enthusiasm and increase price fluctuations. The policy - expected pricing is stronger than the supply - demand contradiction pricing, and the spot price is expected to be strong [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - In the short term, it will fluctuate and sort out. The supply is temporarily loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The cost and policy expectations support the cotton price, but the USDA report is negative [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the sugar price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is at a low level. It is advisable to wait and see, and short - sellers at low levels should be cautious [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Spring Festival, the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to remain high, and the short - term contract is bearish. The long - term contract is supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - The futures price may fluctuate. The出库 of apples is slightly reduced year - on - year, and the sales in the market are slow. The high price restricts consumption, and the substitution of citrus fruits suppresses demand [34]. 3.5.5 Corn - Attention should be paid to the change of spot prices in the production area. It is advisable to short - sell the far - month contracts on rallies or look for reverse - spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. The supply - demand mismatch is gradually alleviated, and the far - month contracts face greater supply pressure [35]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The current view is that the price will fluctuate. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, but the increase in the arrival volume in Cangzhou may suppress the spot price. The follow - up should focus on the performance in the consumption peak season [37]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The spot price lacks the driving force for a rebound and is likely to continue to be weak. It is advisable to short - sell the near - month contracts on rallies and control the position [38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Industry 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela drives the oil price to rebound, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may continue to decline. Goldman Sachs predicts that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 will be $56/barrel and $52/barrel respectively [40]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The supply and demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and its price follows the oil price. The geopolitical situation affects the oil price, and the fuel oil inventory is accumulating [41]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The price may have a small - scale rebound due to production losses, but there is no strong driving force for a large - scale rebound [42]. 3.6.4 Methanol - The supply - demand situation of methanol has slightly improved, and the inventory is starting to decline, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. It is not recommended to continue to be bearish. The near - month contract may have a small - scale rebound, and the far - month contract can be considered for long - position allocation after smooth inventory reduction [43]. 3.6.5 Caustic Soda - The rise of caustic soda futures price is mainly due to the strong performance of coking coal futures. The decline in the price of the liquid chlorine industry chain supports the far - month contract. It is advisable to stop profiting from the long - position in the near - month contract and hold the long - position in the main contract dynamically [44]. 3.6.6 Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase, and the focus in the future is the price bottom after the winter - storage game [45]. 3.6.7 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is mainly driven by cost and market sentiment. It is advisable to try to go long on dips and pay attention to market sentiment changes. Consider the positive spread between PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts on dips [47]. 3.6.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The decrease in supply supports the price rebound, but the high - level support is insufficient, and the futures price is prone to fall [48]. 3.6.9 Pulp - The old warehouse receipts are compulsorily cancelled, and the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. If the spot price is stable, a virtual short - call option on the 03 contract can be sold to achieve high - level risk - free hedging [49]. 3.6.10 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the spot price is under pressure. The follow - up is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures price is still under pressure [49]. 3.6.11 Urea - The high price in the futures market is not sustainable. A bearish view should be maintained under the high - supply pressure [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.39%. The market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan. [14] - The prices of steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the short term with limited rebound space, and a bearish approach is recommended in the medium to long term. [18][19] - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile in the short term, and the 05 contract may have a phased rebound opportunity but with limited space and strength. [20] - For iron alloys, a bullish approach is recommended for ferrosilicon in the medium term, while a bearish approach is recommended for silicomanganese. [21][22] - For soda ash, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, while for glass, a bullish approach can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. [23] - For zinc, short positions are recommended as the price is expected to decline after the macro positive factors fade. [25] - For lead, it is recommended to hold short positions as the fundamentals are weak. [27] - For lithium carbonate, although the short-term fundamentals show signs of weakening, the medium to long-term demand is positive, and buying opportunities during corrections can be considered. [28] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there may be some opportunities to repair the valuation. [31] - For polysilicon, the spot price is expected to remain strong, supporting the futures price to run strongly under the expectation of the anti-involution policy. [32] - For cotton, the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the long-term price is expected to rise due to the expected reduction in supply. [34][35] - For sugar, the price is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. [37] - For eggs, a bearish approach is recommended for the near-term contracts, while a wait-and-see approach is recommended for the far-term contracts. [39] - For apples, the price is expected to be volatile. [41] - For corn, a bearish approach is recommended for the far-term contracts, and a reverse spread opportunity can be considered. [42] - For red dates, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, and the market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored. [43] - For live pigs, a bearish approach is recommended for the near-term contracts as the supply is strong and the demand is weak. [44] - For crude oil, the short-term rise driven by geopolitical factors is limited, and the price is expected to decline in the medium term due to the oversupply. [46][47] - For fuel oil, the price will follow the movement of crude oil prices, and the short-term trading focus is on geopolitical factors. [48] - For plastics, a bearish approach is recommended as the supply pressure is large and the demand is weak. [49] - For rubber, a short-term bullish approach can be considered during corrections, and the ru-nr spread strategy can be temporarily stopped for profit. [50] - For synthetic rubber, the price is expected to be strong due to cost and device factors, but chasing the rise should be cautious. [51] - For methanol, a bullish approach can be considered for the far-term contracts after the inventory is smoothly reduced, while a bullish approach is recommended for the near-term contracts. [52][53] - For caustic soda, a bullish approach is recommended as the futures price is strong. [54] - For asphalt, the price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. [55] - For the polyester industry chain, a positive spread strategy can be considered for PX and PTA 5-9 contracts. [56] - For liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the price is expected to be weak as the supply is abundant and the demand is poor. [57][58] - For pulp, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, and a short call option strategy can be considered for the 03 contract. [58] - For logs, the price is expected to be under pressure as the fundamentals are weak. [59] - For urea, the Indian urea tender has a positive impact on the near-term sentiment, but the impact on the 05 contract is expected to be weak. [60] Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Macro News - CICC plans to absorb and merge Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, and the three companies' stocks will resume trading on December 18. After the merger, CICC will become the fourth securities firm with total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan. [10] - The global silver market has witnessed a historic rally, with the spot silver price breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce on December 17, approaching $67 per ounce. The year-to-date increase is about 130%, twice the increase of gold futures. [10] - In the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, a moderately loose monetary policy is needed to promote economic growth and price recovery. Market institutions generally expect a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the interest rate next year. [10] - From January to November this year, the national fiscal revenue was 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The national tax revenue was 16.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, and the securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 185.5 billion yuan, an increase of 70.7%. [11] - China has achieved a breakthrough in invasive brain-computer interface clinical trials, successfully realizing the control of intelligent wheelchairs and robotic dogs with thoughts. [11] - BYD has launched a full-scale internal test of L3-level autonomous driving in Shenzhen, completing over 150,000 kilometers of actual road verification. [11] - CATL's new energy power battery PACK production line for humanoid embodied intelligent robots has been put into operation, marking a milestone in the application of embodied intelligence in the manufacturing industry. [11] - US President Trump has ordered a "full and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and declared the Venezuelan government a "foreign terrorist organization." [12] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that the Fed still has 50 to - 100 basis points of room for interest rate cuts, but there is no need for drastic action based on the current economic outlook. [12] Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: A focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair is recommended. If it materializes, the index may strengthen. The A-share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.39%. The market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan. [14] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Medium - and short - term bonds have certain odds and are expected to be volatile and strong. The funds are in a balanced and loose state, and the funds rate is stable. The 11 - month macro - economic data showed a decline in most indicators except for the stable unemployment rate. [15] Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: The policy is relatively mild without strong stimulus. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for rolled products is improving. The supply of steel mills is expected to decline, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to last year. The cost is expected to decrease. A short - term volatile and medium - to long - term bearish approach is recommended. [18][19] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. The coal production is expected to be restricted in the short term, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills is weakening. The 05 contract may have a phased rebound opportunity but with limited space and strength. [20] - **Ferroalloys**: A bullish approach is recommended for ferrosilicon in the medium term, while a bearish approach is recommended for silicomanganese. The supply of ferrosilicon is expected to decrease, while the supply of silicomanganese is expected to increase. [21][22] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For glass, a bullish approach can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is recovering, while the supply of glass is expected to be reduced. [23] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The price is expected to decline after the macro positive factors fade. The domestic inventory has decreased, and the price is affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical factors. [25][26] - **Lead**: A bearish approach is recommended as the fundamentals are weak. The production of electrolytic lead has decreased, and the market for recycled lead is inactive. [27] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although the short - term fundamentals show signs of weakening, the medium - to long - term demand is positive, and buying opportunities during corrections can be considered. The supply is expected to shift from surplus to balance or shortage. [28][30] - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there may be some opportunities to repair the valuation. The supply may be affected by environmental protection in Xinjiang and the price of coking coal. [31] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is expected to remain strong, supporting the futures price to run strongly under the expectation of the anti - involution policy. The price is affected by the establishment of the platform company and the supply - reduction expectation. [32] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the long - term price is expected to rise due to the expected reduction in supply. The supply is currently abundant, but the demand for pre - holiday replenishment and the expected reduction in planting area support the price. [34][35] - **Sugar**: The price is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the new sugar supply is increasing. [37] - **Eggs**: A bearish approach is recommended for the near - term contracts, while a wait - and - see approach is recommended for the far - term contracts. The supply of laying hens is expected to decline, but the inventory is still high, and the demand is seasonal. [39] - **Apples**: The price is expected to be volatile. The出库 of apples is slow, and the market demand is weak due to the high price and the substitution of citrus fruits. [41] - **Corn**: A bearish approach is recommended for the far - term contracts, and a reverse spread opportunity can be considered. The supply - demand mismatch is being alleviated, and the far - term supply pressure is increasing. [42] - **Red Dates**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and the market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored. The market is currently stable, and the future performance depends on the consumption demand and inventory reduction. [43] - **Live Pigs**: A bearish approach is recommended for the near - term contracts as the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The supply is expected to increase at the end of the month, and the demand increase during the double festivals is limited. [44] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The short - term rise driven by geopolitical factors is limited, and the price is expected to decline in the medium term due to the oversupply. The situation in Venezuela has led to a short - term increase in the price, but the long - term impact is limited. [46][47] - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the movement of crude oil prices, and the short - term trading focus is on geopolitical factors. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. [48] - **Plastics**: A bearish approach is recommended as the supply pressure is large and the demand is weak. The upstream production is in deficit, but there is no strong driving force for a significant rebound. [49] - **Rubber**: A short - term bullish approach can be considered during corrections, and the ru - nr spread strategy can be temporarily stopped for profit. The cost is supportive, and the price is affected by synthetic rubber. [50] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to be strong due to cost and device factors, but chasing the rise should be cautious. The price is affected by the price of butadiene and the downstream procurement sentiment. [51] - **Methanol**: A bullish approach can be considered for the far - term contracts after the inventory is smoothly reduced, while a bullish approach is recommended for the near - term contracts. The supply is affected by the shutdown of Iranian plants, and the demand is increasing. [52][53] - **Caustic Soda**: A bullish approach is recommended as the futures price is strong. The spot market of 32% caustic soda is improving, and the short - selling positions are actively leaving the market. [54] - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The price is affected by the geopolitical situation and the winter storage expectation. [55] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: A positive spread strategy can be considered for PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts. The price is mainly driven by cost and market sentiment, and the supply - demand drive is limited. [56] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The price is expected to be weak as the supply is abundant and the demand is poor. The geopolitical premium has limited impact, and the price is prone to decline. [57][58] - **Pulp**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and a short call option strategy can be considered for the 03 contract. The inventory is decreasing, and the market sentiment is improving. [58] - **Logs**: The price is expected to be under pressure as the fundamentals are weak. The inventory is expected to increase, and the spot price is under pressure. [59] - **Urea**: The Indian urea tender has a positive impact on the near - term sentiment, but the impact on the 05 contract is expected to be weak. The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong in the near term. [60]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority for 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market from both supply and demand sides [10][11] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive tone, with continued implementation of moderate easing measures to lower financing costs and support key sectors of the economy [10][11] - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start full island closure on December 18, 2025, with significant adjustments to tax policies, expanding the number of zero-tariff items [10] Group 2 - The report indicates a bearish outlook for various commodities, including methanol, glass, and cotton, while PTA and soybean oil show a bullish trend [5][3] - The steel market is experiencing weak demand, with new housing sales declining significantly and construction projects facing funding pressures, leading to a decrease in overall demand for building materials [19][20] - The iron ore and coke prices are expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and low profit margins for steel mills, with a potential for further price declines [20][22] Group 3 - The report highlights a significant increase in foreign long-term capital inflows into the Chinese stock market, contrasting with the outflows seen in 2024, indicating a positive sentiment towards Chinese assets [11] - The automotive industry is undergoing a major restructuring, with Ford shifting focus from electric vehicles to fuel and hybrid vehicles, reflecting broader trends in the sector [13] - The lithium market is expected to see limited price declines due to strong demand, despite some signs of weakening fundamentals [28][29] Group 4 - The agricultural sector is facing mixed signals, with cotton supply pressures and expectations of reduced planting areas, while sugar prices are under pressure from new sugar supply [33][34] - The egg market is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and limited demand, although there are signs of potential recovery as the holiday season approaches [39][40] - The apple market is experiencing slow sales and high prices, with expectations of continued weak demand due to competition from other fruits [36] Group 5 - The oil market is facing downward pressure due to oversupply and geopolitical factors, with prices expected to remain volatile [40][41] - The rubber market is stable with no significant supply-demand imbalances, while synthetic rubber prices are influenced by raw material costs and cautious purchasing behavior [43][44] - The caustic soda market is showing signs of strength due to favorable market conditions, although overall demand remains weak [45]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic move for economic stability and security, highlighting the need for policies that support consumption growth [10] - Recent economic data indicates a mixed performance, with industrial output and service sector growth showing positive trends, while fixed asset investment has declined [10] - The report outlines the challenges in the real estate sector, with significant declines in investment and housing prices, indicating a need for policy intervention [10] Macro Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in industrial added value and a 4.2% increase in the service production index for November [10] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 1.9% and real estate development investment dropping by 15.9% [10] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges [10] Energy Sector - The report highlights the goal of adding over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity in 2026, indicating a strong push towards renewable energy [11] - The energy sector is expected to see record high oil and gas production in 2025, with a 14% increase in total power generation capacity [11] Commodity Market Trends - The report notes a bearish trend in various commodities, including cotton and sugar, while some agricultural products like soybeans and eggs show bullish tendencies [3][5] - Steel prices are expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and low demand, with a significant drop in new housing starts impacting construction materials [17][18] - The report indicates that the coal and coke market may experience fluctuations due to production constraints and seasonal demand changes [20][21] Agricultural Products - Cotton prices are projected to rebound due to supply constraints and high production costs, despite a mixed outlook from the USDA on global cotton production [32][33] - Sugar prices are under pressure from new supply entering the market, with expectations of a global surplus in sugar production [34][35] - The egg market is facing challenges with high inventory levels and limited price increases, although seasonal demand may provide some support [37][38] Metals and Materials - Zinc inventories have decreased, but prices are expected to face downward pressure due to weak downstream demand [25][26] - The report suggests that the aluminum market may remain under pressure due to high production costs and fluctuating demand [27] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize despite some signs of weakening demand, with strong long-term growth prospects in the lithium market [28][29] Overall Market Sentiment - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment, with mixed signals from economic data and commodity prices, suggesting a potential for volatility in the near term [14][15] - Investors are advised to monitor macroeconomic indicators closely, as they may influence market trends and investment strategies moving forward [15][16]

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 15 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 들 = | 玉米淀粉 | 菜粕 | | 郑棉 | 玻璃 | 豆粕 | | 护金 | 橡胶 | 菜油 | | 沪铝 | 铁矿石 | 白糖 | | 沪铝 | 聚丙烯 | 直一 | | 棕櫚油 | PVC | 焦炭 | | 玉米 | 甲醇 | 沥青 | | | 塑料 | | | | PTA | | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | 螺纹钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, the upstream is suffering severe losses with the price slightly weakening and comprehensive profit deteriorating, which may lead to potential production cuts. The downstream has a weak operating rate, and the trading volume is mainly concentrated on low - price point - price orders. The mid - stream traders are cautious, with a slight increase in the sentiment of bottom - fishing. The export volume is stable, and the inventory situation is complex, with some signs of de - stocking expected based on current production and apparent demand [6][9][10]. - For caustic soda, the overall production is at a high level, with a small increase in production this week. The inventory is slightly reduced this week, but it is estimated to accumulate slightly next week. The price is weakening, and the profit of the chlor - alkali complex is deteriorating. Traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is relatively stable [100][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PVC 1.1 Supply - This week's total PVC production is 48.91 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The ethylene - based production is 14.53 tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production is 34.38 tons. Next week, as some maintenance devices resume production, the production is expected to increase slightly. The import volume remains stable at 1.50 tons per week, and the export volume is 5.75 tons per week, but the export signing volume has slightly declined this week [6]. - There are multiple PVC production devices under maintenance or shut - down, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some devices are expected to resume production in the near future, such as Zhengyang Development's device which is expected to resume on December 13, 2025 [13]. 1.2 Demand - This week's apparent PVC demand is 44.00 tons, slightly lower than expected. The expected apparent demand for next week is 47.63 tons. The demand has some seasonal increments in December, but the weekly apparent demand tracking is worse than expected [6]. 1.3 Price and Basis - The PVC spot price has slightly weakened this week. The basis of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and Shandong has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has also strengthened [9]. 1.4 Profit - The production profit of calcium - carbide in Shaanxi has increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali and the profit of PVC production in Northwest China have continued to deteriorate. The export profit has slightly improved [9]. 1.5 Inventory - This week, the old - sample inventory has increased by 0.66 tons, and if calculated based on the current production and apparent demand, it is expected to slightly reduce inventory next week. The inventory of mid - stream traders has decreased by 1.19 tons, while the new - sample inventory has increased by 0.04 tons. The upstream inventory has increased by 1.85 tons [6]. 2. Caustic Soda 2.1 Supply - This week's total caustic soda production is 84.85 tons, a slight increase from last week. Next week, the production is expected to remain high. The import volume is stable at 0.02 tons per week, and the export volume is 7.30 tons per week [101]. 2.2 Demand - This week's apparent demand for caustic soda is 79.87 tons, higher than last week. Next week, the apparent demand is estimated to be around 77.53 tons based on historical data [101]. 2.3 Price and Basis - The price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has weakened to 675 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda has generally weakened, and the spread between different contracts shows different trends [7][103]. 2.4 Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased by 145 yuan/ton, and the profit of supporting PVC - type enterprises has continued to deteriorate [103]. 2.5 Inventory - This week, the national caustic soda inventory has slightly decreased, but it is estimated to accumulate slightly next week based on static data. The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong has decreased by 4.77 tons, and the flake caustic soda inventory has slightly increased [101].

Report Summary 1. Report Title - Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] 2. Report Date and Analyst Information - Date: December 12, 2025 - Analyst: Dong Xueshan from Zhongtai Futures Research Institute - Qualification Number: F3075616, Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] 3. Key Data - Weekly Production and Changes Silicon Manganese - **National**: Weekly production is 18.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.04% [3] - **Inner Mongolia**: Weekly production is 9.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 140 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.40% [3] - **Ningxia**: Weekly production is 4.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1400 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.43% [3] - **Guangxi**: Weekly production is 0.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 245 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.39% [3] - **Guizhou**: Weekly production is 1.21 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.56% [3] - **Yunnan**: Weekly production is 0.68 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.21% [3] - **Other regions**: Weekly production is 2.09 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.11% [3] Silicon Iron - **National**: Weekly production is 10.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2520 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.95% [3] - **Inner Mongolia**: Weekly production is 3.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1925 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.91% [3] - **Ningxia**: Weekly production is 2.72 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.21% [3] - **Shaanxi**: Weekly production is 1.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 350 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.14% [3] - **Qinghai**: Weekly production is 1.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 945 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.49% [3] - **Gansu**: Weekly production is 0.98 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.70% [3] - **Other regions**: Weekly production is 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.00% [3] 4. Data Explanation - The update date of Ganglian terminal data is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week - Data sources: Mysteel; compiled by Zhongtai Futures [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors and varieties having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the macro - financial sector, A - shares are in a wide - range shock, and the bond market sentiment is gradually improving; in the black sector, steel and ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and coal and coke prices may fluctuate weakly; in the agricultural product sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [11][14][28]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and determines 8 key tasks, including promoting investment to stop falling and stabilizing, and stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - Mexico will impose 5% - 50% tariffs on some products from China and other Asian countries starting next year, and China has launched a trade - investment barrier investigation [6]. - There are rumors about the clearance of quantitative trading equipment in exchanges, but no specific notice has been received [7]. - The storage chip industry is facing a severe supply - demand imbalance, with the shortage of DRAM expected to last until the first quarter of 2027, and the demand for DDR memory growing by 20.7% [7]. - Morgan Chase successfully issued a US commercial paper using blockchain, with payments in USDC [7]. - The key indicator for the "ChatGPT moment" of embodied intelligence is the "double 80%", which may occur in the next one or two years [7]. - OpenAI launches the GPT - 5.2 model, which is expected to bring more economic value. It will be launched in ChatGPT for paid users [8]. - The US trade deficit in September narrowed by nearly 11% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level since June 2020 [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000, and the number of continued jobless claims decreased by the largest amount in four years [8]. - The EU is considering postponing the plan to ban the sale of new fuel - powered cars until 2040 and allowing plug - in hybrid and extended - range electric vehicles to be sold for up to five more years [8]. - Although the yield of Japanese 10 - year government bonds has soared, the Bank of Japan has no intention of intervening for now [9]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to think in terms of wide - range shocks. A - shares are in a downward shock, and the technical weakness of broad - based indexes has been repaired. Attention should be paid to possible adjustments after the realization of positive news [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - level center is reached, medium - and short - term bonds may stabilize first and then the rebound may spread to ultra - long - term bonds. The bond market sentiment is gradually improving [13]. Black Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, the 2026 Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are in line with market expectations without new policies. From a fundamental perspective, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is fair. The supply of steel mills may decline, and the inventory is at a high level. Steel and ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to - long - term [14][15]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills is weakening. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts the prices in the short - term [17][18]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to take a long - at - low approach; for manganese silicon, it is recommended to take a short - at - high approach in the medium - term [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory is decreasing. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [22]. Lead - The social inventory of lead is stable. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold short positions [23][24]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with a limited decline space [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon prices are expected to be strong [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The supply of cotton is temporarily loose, but the demand is expected to improve. It is suitable to buy at low prices after adjustment [28]. Sugar - The supply - demand situation of domestic sugar is expected to be bearish. Sugar prices are in a downward shock, and it is advisable to wait and see [30]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, dragging down the near - month contracts. The far - month contracts may be strong due to the expected decline in inventory, but the current valuation is high, so it is advisable to wait and see [32]. Apples - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate [34]. Corn - It is recommended to short the far - month contracts at high prices and pay attention to the changes in the spot price in the production area [35]. Red Dates - It is recommended to buy the far - month contracts at low prices [36]. Live Pigs - The spot market of live pigs shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - month contracts [37]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The rebound of crude oil prices lacks sustainable driving force, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [39]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil prices and is mainly affected by geopolitical and macro - factors [40]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to think in terms of a weak - shock approach and short after the price rebounds [41]. Rubber - The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, and one can sell call options at high prices [42]. Methanol - The near - month contracts of methanol are expected to be in a weak - shock state, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a long - position after smooth inventory reduction [43]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is slightly stable. It is recommended to take a short - term shock approach, avoid long positions in the near - month contracts, and wait and see for long positions in the main contracts [45][46]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt is expected to have a larger fluctuation range, and the future focus is on the price bottom after winter storage [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to continue to be under pressure. One can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on TA and short on PF [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG is expected to decline, as the downstream chemical industry's operating rate may fall [49]. Pulp - The fundamentals of pulp are improving slightly. It is advisable to wait and see during the day, and one can go long after a callback or sell out - of - the - money call options for hedging [50][51]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly bearish, and the spot price is under pressure. The disk is expected to be under pressure [52]. Urea - The spot market of urea is expected to be stable and weak. It is recommended to take a shock approach [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market show different trends and investment opportunities under the influence of macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. The macro - economic environment is complex, with the Fed's monetary policy adjustments, China's economic data changes, and geopolitical events all affecting the market [5][6]. - Different commodities have different outlooks. For example, some are expected to be in a wide - range shock, some may continue to decline, while others may have short - term rebounds or long - term upward trends depending on their specific supply - demand and cost situations [12][14][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. It will start a short - term Treasury purchase program of about $40 billion per month from December 12. The Fed also raised its GDP growth expectations for 2025 - 2028 [5]. - China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, hitting the highest since March 2024, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month but widened its year - on - year decline to 2.2% [6]. - The IMF expects China's economy to grow 5.0% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, raising the forecasts by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points compared to October [7]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.23% at 3900.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.02%. The market turnover was 1.79 trillion yuan. Adopt a wide - range shock strategy and pay attention to the coordination of volume and price [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - If there is a consensus on the decline of the capital - level center, short - and medium - term bonds may stabilize and rebound first, while the ultra - long - term bonds are neutral in the short term and still need caution in the medium term [13]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may be in a short - term weak shock. In the future, pay attention to the production of coal mines, safety supervision, and the change of downstream molten iron output. Due to factors such as the approaching end of the year and environmental protection, coal production is expected to shrink, but the weakening demand for steel in the off - season restricts the price increase [14]. 3.3.2 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to take a long - at - low strategy; for silicomanganese, a short - at - high strategy in the medium term. The fundamentals of the two have limited changes recently, and pay attention to the price changes of raw materials and the impact of steel mill procurement [15]. 3.3.3 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The soda ash industry has a supply recovery but weak upstream production willingness, while the glass industry has an increasing expectation of cold repair of production lines [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock. As of December 8, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. With frequent macro - positive news and an open export window, zinc prices may be supported, but weak downstream consumption drags them down. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [16]. 3.4.2 Lead - Short - term lead prices may remain in shock, and there is a risk of the center of operation moving down. As of December 8, the lead inventory decreased, but the factory inventory of primary lead enterprises increased. It is recommended to hold short positions [18]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it is mainly in a wide - range shock. Although the demand is slightly weakening, the long - term demand is good, and the supply is increasing, limiting the short - term price increase space [20]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see production cuts. Pay attention to the impact of environmental protection in Xinjiang and coking coal price fluctuations at the end of the month. The subsequent focus may shift to the expectation of polysilicon production cuts [22]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - The spot price is expected to be strong, and the policy expectation has a strong impact on the price. Pay attention to the follow - up actions of the platform company [23]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - There is a short - term supply surplus, but the demand expectation is improving. The high - cost factor supports the Zhengzhou cotton price. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the short - term adjustment [25]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. New sugar listing pressure weighs on prices, but cost support limits the decline. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [27]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the festival, the spot price increase may be limited. The near - month contracts are dragged down by the weak spot, while the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in inventory but are currently over - valued. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [29]. 3.5.4 Apples - The price is expected to be in shock. The trading in the production area has slowed down, and the sales in the sales area are affected by the listing of citrus fruits [31]. 3.5.5 Corn - Pay attention to the change of spot prices and short at high prices. The current upward trend of corn is due to the "supply - demand mismatch," which is gradually alleviating [32]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable and strong, and the futures price is in shock [33]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The spot market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to risk control [34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The current rebound of crude oil lacks sustainable driving force. Pay attention to the US sanctions on Venezuela. The price is mainly in shock [37]. 3.6.2 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure. Adopt a weak - shock strategy and wait for the price to rebound before shorting [38]. 3.6.3 Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. The price is expected to be in shock. Pay attention to the raw material supply in the production area and the domestic demand [39]. 3.6.4 Synthetic Rubber - It is expected to continue to be in shock in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the price of butadiene and downstream procurement sentiment [40]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The near - month contracts are expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish. The far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after smooth inventory reduction [41]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - Adopt a short - term shock strategy. Avoid going long on near - month contracts and take profit on short positions. Wait and see for long positions in the main contract [43]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after winter storage. The geopolitical situation and demand changes are the main influencing factors [45]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is in shock. Consider a strategy of going long on PTA and short on PF. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand and cost situations [47]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price is expected to change from high - level shock to decline. The previous upward - driving logic has been fulfilled, and pay attention to the decline of downstream chemical开工 rates [48]. 3.6.10 Pulp - After the positive news is exhausted, the pulp sentiment declines. The price is in shock. Pay attention to port inventory, warehouse receipt removal speed, and downstream procurement enthusiasm [49]. 3.6.11 Logs - The log market is in a weak - shock state. The spot price is under pressure, and the inventory is expected to increase. The basis provides some support, but the short - term price is still under pressure [50]. 3.6.12 Urea - The spot market is expected to be stable and weak. Adopt a shock strategy. The futures price is affected by spot transactions and the price of coking coal [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial chain shows stable spot prices and rigid demand transactions. The price adjustment on December 1st has not been implemented with actual orders. This week, the production of double - offset paper was 20.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons or 0.5% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 53.0%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. The inventory of double - offset paper production enterprises increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The offset paper market continues to have an oversupply situation, with high finished - product inventory still accumulating. The price increase has not been implemented, resulting in significant fundamental pressure and weakening market sentiment. However, considering the recent increase in raw material pulp prices, the cost of double - offset paper has some support, and the downside space is expected to be limited. Due to the large fundamental pressure and limited cost support, it is not recommended to short at low levels. If there is a rebound, the overall idea is to short on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. Summary by Directory 1.胶版印刷纸综述 1.1 胶版印刷纸综述——供需库 - In terms of supply, the weekly domestic production of offset printing paper in the week of December 5, 2025, was 20.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.21%. The capacity utilization rate was 53.0%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period and 5.5% from the same period last year. The monthly import volume in December 2025 was 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons from the previous month and 0.83 million tons from the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98%. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly next week, reaching about 21.0 million tons [6]. - In terms of demand, the weekly apparent demand was 20.0 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous period. The monthly export volume was 5.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous month but a decrease of 1.59 million tons from the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 14.17%. Domestic demand was 84.05 million tons, unchanged from the previous month but an increase of 4.73 million tons from the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6.11%. The demand is expected to remain stable during the off - season [6]. - In terms of inventory, the enterprise inventory was 137.1 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 27.1 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory was 54.0 million tons, unchanged from the previous period but a decrease of 4.7 million tons from the same period last year. The total spot inventory was 191.1 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 22.4 million tons from the same period last year. Due to the increase in production and stable demand, the inventory is expected to accumulate [6]. 1.2 胶版印刷纸综述——价格 - The ex - factory delivered prices of various brands such as Galaxy Ruyi, Huatai Mudan, etc., remained unchanged from the previous period but decreased compared to the same period last year. The market self - pick - up prices also showed a similar trend. The quoted price on December 1st to increase by 100 yuan/ton was not actually implemented. The offset paper market continues to have an oversupply situation, with high finished - product inventory still accumulating. The price increase has not been implemented, resulting in significant fundamental pressure and weakening market sentiment. However, considering the recent increase in raw material pulp prices, the cost of double - offset paper has some support, and the downside space is expected to be limited. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 are expected to fluctuate or fluctuate strongly [8]. 1.3 胶版印刷纸综述——价差与基差 - The differences between ex - factory and self - pick - up prices of some brands remained stable or increased compared to the same period last year. The futures price difference between OP2601 and OP2603 is expected to remain stable. The basis of some brands is expected to weaken. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [10]. 1.3 胶版印刷纸综述——成本与利润 - Raw material prices have increased, leading to an increase in the cost of double - offset paper. In the off - season, it is difficult for the finished - product price to rise, so the production profit is expected to shrink. The profit of self - used pulp decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton, and the profits of low - cost and high - cost production also decreased [12]. 2.胶版印刷纸平衡表解析 - The monthly balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory changes of double - offset paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative production also decreased year - on - year. The cumulative total supply and demand both decreased year - on - year. The inventory showed an increasing trend in general, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [15]. 3.胶版印刷纸供需解析 3.1 供应——投产情况 - In 2025, a total of 140 million tons of cultural paper production capacity has been put into operation, and 225 million tons is expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production capacity. In 2026, 120 - 140 million tons of production capacity is planned to be put into operation [17]. 3.2 需求 - No detailed content provided in the given text 3.3 库存 - No detailed content provided in the given text 3.4 进出口 - No detailed content provided in the given text 4.胶版印刷纸成本利润 4.1 胶版印刷纸原料成本 - No detailed content provided in the given text 4.2 胶版印刷纸利润 - No detailed content provided in the given text 5.胶版印刷纸价格、价差解析 5.1 胶版印刷纸现货报价 - No detailed content provided in the given text 5.2 胶版印刷纸期现基差 - No detailed content provided in the given text 5.3 OP主力合约季节图及月间价差 - No detailed content provided in the given text