Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Sunshine Insurance with a "Reduce" rating, setting a target price of HKD 2.10 by December 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - The Chinese insurance industry is on a strong growth trajectory driven by economic expansion and increased insurance awareness. Sunshine Insurance, one of the few companies with a comprehensive license (both life and property insurance), has seen slow market share growth over the past decade, with 2024 market shares at 1.9% for life insurance and 2.8% for property insurance, compared to 1.3% and 2.8% in 2014 [1][9]. - The visibility of the company's performance is high due to the attractive growth prospects of its Contractual Service Margin (CSM), indicating a stable profit outlook. However, the company requires time to expand its business scale and establish a leading position in the industry, comparable to peers like Ping An and China Pacific Insurance [1][9]. Summary by Sections CSM Growth and Profitability - CSM growth is expected to be robust, with a projected increase of 8% in 2025, 9% in 2026, and 11% in 2027, driven by a recovery in new life insurance sales and an increase in agent productivity [4][14]. - The CSM balance for Sunshine Life was reported at a year-on-year growth of 13% in 2024, benefiting from a smaller historical policy scale compared to peers [4][15]. Investment Risks - The company has a high equity asset exposure, with a net asset ratio of 1.1 times, which poses significant profit volatility risks in a fluctuating stock market. A 10% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index could lead to a 32% decline in profits [4][20]. - The distribution channel is heavily reliant on bancassurance, contributing 56% of new business value in 2024, which may hinder market share growth and new business value expansion [4][24]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 2.10 is based on a valuation of 4x expected 2025 P/E for life insurance, 3x for property insurance, and 0.3x P/B for other businesses, reflecting a total expected P/E of 5x [4][46]. - The valuation multiples are close to historical lows, with the industry average P/E ranging from 4x to 9x in recent years [4][46]. Company Overview - Sunshine Insurance was founded in May 2004 and is one of the seven major insurance groups in China, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2022 [51][52]. - The company primarily operates through Sunshine Life for life insurance and Sunshine Property for property insurance, with life insurance being the main profit source [54].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to China Reinsurance and ZhongAn Online, while it gives a "Reduce" rating to China Taiping and Sunshine Insurance [3][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the investment in Chinese insurance stocks is primarily driven by three key indicators: investment asset-related risks, profit growth prospects, and dividend growth visibility [6][22]. - In a normal macroeconomic scenario, the growth rate of insurance premiums is expected to align with GDP growth, which is projected at 5% for 2025, leading to significant profit potential for small and mid-cap insurers [4][22]. - The report emphasizes that small and mid-cap insurers are likely to outperform large-cap insurers due to their potential for excess growth in underwriting profits and lower earnings volatility compared to equity fluctuations [6][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - China Reinsurance: "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 1.4, current P/E ratio of 4x for FY2025 [3][21]. - ZhongAn Online: "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 26, current P/E ratio of 27x for FY2025 [3][21]. - China Taiping: "Reduce" with a target price of HKD 8.2, current P/E ratio of 6x for FY2025 [3][21]. - Sunshine Insurance: "Reduce" with a target price of HKD 2.1, current P/E ratio of 7x for FY2025 [3][21]. Macro Environment Analysis - In a normal macro scenario, premium growth is expected to match GDP growth, leading to a projected 14% year-on-year profit growth for small and mid-cap insurers compared to 6% for large-cap insurers [4][22]. - In a pessimistic macro scenario, small and mid-cap insurers exhibit more resilient profit growth, with a potential 27% decline in earnings if the Shanghai Composite Index drops by 10%, compared to a 45% decline for large-cap insurers [29][35]. Financial Metrics - The report notes that the current valuation multiples for China Reinsurance are significantly lower than historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery as business conditions improve [23][24]. - The report also highlights that over 70% of equity investments are measured at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), which can lead to significant earnings volatility [7][28]. Risk and Opportunity Assessment - The report suggests that the decline in bond yields is beneficial for China Reinsurance, as it may lead to increased demand for financial reinsurance contracts among smaller insurers facing capital constraints [35][36]. - The analysis indicates that the insurance sector is under pressure due to declining bond yields, which could impact the solvency ratios of life insurers, but major players have managed to maintain strong solvency through capital-raising measures [5][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for Mindray, with a price target of Rmb 425 as of September 29, 2022, and subsequent price targets adjusted over time [18]. Core Insights - The European Union's procurement ban on Chinese companies for public contracts over 5 million euros is seen as a negative headline for Chinese medical equipment firms, but the financial impact is expected to be limited due to the low exposure of companies like Mindray to the EU market [3][4]. - The Chinese government's push for innovation in the medtech sector, as outlined in the NMPA's new measures, is expected to enhance the global competitiveness of Chinese medtech companies by fostering significant innovation in high-end medical devices [5][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections EU Procurement Ban - The EU's decision to bar Chinese companies from public procurement projects valued over 5 million euros is based on the lack of fair market access for EU companies, affecting about 40% of the EU medtech market despite only representing 4% of total public tenders [3]. - Mindray's EU tenders are reportedly below the 5 million euro threshold, and its sales exposure to the EU is only a mid-to-high single-digit percentage of total sales, suggesting limited financial repercussions [4]. Chinese Government Innovation Push - The NMPA's document titled "Measures to Optimize Lifecycle Regulation and Support High-End Medical Device Innovation" outlines strategies to enhance innovation in high-end medical devices, focusing on areas such as medical robotics and AI medical devices [5]. - The proactive regulatory environment is expected to attract more investor interest and drive growth in the Chinese medtech sector, paving the way for rapid growth of companies in this space [10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on ZhongAn Online with an "Overweight" rating, setting a target price of HKD 26.00 by December 2025 [1][9][56]. Core Views - ZhongAn Online is the leading internet property insurance company in China, with a projected total premium of approximately CNY 33.4 billion for FY2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [13][9]. - The investment rationale is based on three main factors: 1) Attractive growth prospects for underwriting profits due to proactive product structure optimization and cost control; 2) Limited impact from macroeconomic challenges on solvency pressure and profit volatility; 3) Significant market demand for technology-driven insurance solutions, which could lead to substantial stock price appreciation [1][9][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rationale and Valuation Overview - The company is expected to achieve net profits of CNY 1 billion, CNY 1.5 billion, and CNY 2.1 billion for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 66%, 51%, and 41% [4][9]. - The estimated comprehensive cost ratio for FY2025 is projected at 96.1%, improving from 96.9% in FY2024 [4][31]. - The report highlights that ZhongAn's business model, which relies on short-term insurance policies, results in lower capital consumption compared to long-term life insurance companies, thus reducing the risk of needing additional equity financing [15][34]. Market Position and Technology Integration - ZhongAn's market share continues to grow, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for technology in the insurance sector, particularly in artificial intelligence applications [43][44]. - The company has successfully integrated AI into various operational aspects, enhancing efficiency and customer service, which is expected to drive revenue growth [44][43]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report estimates that ZhongAn's core solvency ratio remains robust at 221% as of December 2024, well above the minimum regulatory requirement of 50% [34][36]. - The projected price-to-book ratio for FY2025 is set at 1.6 times, which is considered reasonable given the company's growth stage compared to its peers [56][57]. Business Structure and Ecosystem - ZhongAn operates through four main ecosystems: health, digital life, consumer finance, and automotive, with each contributing to the overall premium income [20][19]. - The company is actively optimizing its product matrix, shifting from low-margin, high-risk products to more stable and profitable offerings [20][24].

Investment Rating - The report provides an "In-Line" investment rating for the automotive sensing equipment market, indicating a balanced outlook for the sector [9]. Core Insights - The automotive CMOS image sensor (CIS) market is experiencing a significant growth phase driven by advancements in automotive electronic control unit (ECU) integration and the increasing demand for high-resolution CMOS image sensors, particularly for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) [2][3][14]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% for the high-resolution image sensor market (over 5MP) from 2025 to 2030, compared to a 5% CAGR for the overall automotive image sensor market [3][16]. - Major players in the high-res CIS market include Sony Group, Samsung Electronics, and Will Semiconductor, with Will Semiconductor expected to expand its market share significantly by 2025 [5][30]. Summary by Sections I. Summary and Investment Conclusions - The automotive imaging sensor market is at an inflection point, with a forecasted increase in camera module content per vehicle from 3.8 units in 2024 to over 10 units by 2030, driven by the integration of high-resolution CMOS sensors in ADAS [15][56]. II. Automotive Sensing Equipment Market - The demand for automotive sensing equipment is steadily growing, with a focus on enhancing ADAS performance through improved sensor integration and technology [42][48]. III. Tech Trend in ADAS Camera - The report highlights the transition to integrated ECUs using system-on-chip (SoC) technology, which is expected to reduce costs and increase the number of sensing modules installed per vehicle [61][65]. IV. Road to Humanoids - The sensing technologies developed for ADAS are anticipated to form the foundation for future humanoid applications, with CMOS image sensors playing a crucial role in visual information acquisition [6][40]. V. Automotive CMOS Image Sensor Market - The report projects that high-resolution CIS will account for over 30% of total automotive CIS shipments by FY28, significantly impacting industry revenue [16][25]. VI. Main CIS Makers - Key players in the automotive CIS market include Sony, onsemi, Will Semiconductor, and Samsung Electronics, with varying strategies and market positions influencing their growth potential [30][35][36]. VII. CIS Process Technology and Capacity - The report discusses the technological barriers in high-res CIS production, which limit the number of suppliers and highlight the competitive landscape among existing manufacturers [4][23].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The report highlights concerns in Beijing regarding the potential consolidation of the US dollar's dominance due to recent US stablecoin legislation, prompting China to explore solutions through pilot programs in Hong Kong aimed at strengthening the international use of the Renminbi [1] - It emphasizes that while stablecoins are seen as tools for enhancing existing fiat currency circulation, they do not represent a new form of "supra-sovereign" international currency system [8] - The report indicates that the internationalization of the Renminbi faces significant challenges, including a decline in its share of global reserve currencies from 2.8% in early 2022 to 2.2% by the end of 2024, primarily due to issues such as debt, deflation, and capital outflows [9][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Stablecoins and the US Dollar - The US Senate's recent passage of the stablecoin (GENIUS) bill mandates that dollar-backed stablecoins must have 100% reserve assets, which could solidify the dollar's position in international payment systems [1] - Stablecoins are viewed as extending the reach of the dollar into cryptocurrency and emerging markets, rather than challenging its dominance [1] Section 2: Central Bank's Shift in Attitude - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted from a stance of outright rejection of virtual currencies to a more accepting view, recognizing the need for a diversified cross-border payment system [2] - The PBOC's digital currency initiatives and stablecoin developments are seen as efforts to reshape traditional payment systems [2] Section 3: Renminbi Stablecoin Prospects - The report discusses the current state of cross-border digital Renminbi transactions, primarily through the mBridge project, which is still in its early stages with limited participation [2] - It notes that while Renminbi stablecoins could enhance cross-border settlement, their development is hampered by domestic circulation restrictions and capital controls [2] Section 4: Infrastructure and Reform Needs - The report argues that improving the internationalization of the Renminbi requires structural reforms to restore global confidence in China's growth, including social welfare reform and debt restructuring [9] - It highlights that the development of Renminbi stablecoins should be viewed as part of a broader infrastructure for cross-border Renminbi settlements, alongside existing systems like CIPS [8]

Source: The White House, USTR, US Department of Commerce, US International Trade Commission, Morgan Stanley Research The interplay of country and sector tariffs, we believe, are a function of practical and legal considerations. Early this year, when tariff expectations were being formed, we predicted that the administration would first focus on "country" tariffs because of the complexity of implementing sector tariffs in short order. Indeed, the administration moved to country buckets before then shifting f ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded several companies' ratings, with Makalot Industrial moving from Equal-weight to Underweight, and Lai Yih Footwear Co Ltd from Equal-weight to Underweight. Conversely, Stella International Holdings Ltd and Crystal International Group Ltd have been downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight [1][28]. Core Insights - The report indicates that US tariffs on apparel and footwear are not finalized, creating uncertainties in the supply chain. However, the risk-reward profile for apparel and footwear OEMs has become more attractive following recent stock corrections, alongside persistent structural positives [1][10]. - A scenario analysis suggests that the apparel and footwear OEMs could face an 8-11% downside risk to 2025 earnings and a 4-5% downside for 2026 earnings under the base case scenario, which factors in a 20% tariff [9][15]. - The long-term competitive edge of OEMs remains intact due to supply-side consolidation, driven by brands' demand for multi-location production and strong customer relationships [11][24]. Summary by Company - **Eclat Textile (1476.TW)**: Maintains Overweight rating with a price target reduced from NT$640 to NT$550. The company has strong exposure to niche and premium products, which are expected to sustain demand [1][33]. - **Makalot Industrial (1477.TW)**: Downgraded to Underweight with a price target reduced from NT$310 to NT$250. The company faces challenges amid tariff uncertainties [1][28]. - **Feng Tay (9910.TW)**: Retains Overweight rating with a price target reduced from NT$168 to NT$145. The company is seen as a proxy for Nike and may benefit from potential brand momentum [1][33]. - **Stella International Holdings Ltd (1836.HK)**: Downgraded to Equal-weight with a price target reduced from HK$20.50 to HK$15.60. Despite structural advantages, the stock has rallied significantly, prompting the downgrade [1][28]. - **Crystal International Group Ltd. (2232.HK)**: Downgraded to Equal-weight with a price target reduced from HK$6.25 to HK$5.30. The company is viewed as fairly valued after a significant price increase [1][28]. - **Lai Yih Footwear Co Ltd (6890.TW)**: Downgraded to Underweight with a price target reduced from NT$320 to NT$270. The company faces competitive pressures that may impact margins [1][28]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the probability of moving supply chains to the US is low due to higher construction costs and a lack of skilled workforce. This suggests that OEMs with diversified production exposure will likely gain market share [12][24]. - The analysis indicates that apparel OEMs are preferred over footwear OEMs due to lower wage costs as a percentage of COGS, providing more flexibility amid order volatility [25][27].

June 23, 2025 04:01 AM GMT What Bank Investors Are Asking | North America What Should We Expect From This Week's Stress Test Results? Stress test results come out post-market close on Friday, June 27. We expect Stressed Capital Buffers (SCBs) flat-to-down y/y reflecting less severe stress scenario & Fed's focus on transparency. Where do we expect SCBs come down the most? C, GS, USB, MTB 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 6.6% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 6.4% 3.2% 2.5% 3.1% 3.4% 2.5% 4.0% 6.3% 4.0% 2.5% 3.2% 2.5% 2.5% 4.3% 5. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a GDP growth forecast for China at 4.5% for 2025, indicating a stable outlook despite lingering deflationary pressures [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariffs have de-escalated, challenges remain, particularly with persistent deflation expected to last for 15 quarters from Q2 2023 to Q4 2026 [4][5]. - A supplementary fiscal package of RMB 0.5-1 trillion is anticipated in Q4 2025 to support infrastructure and key sectors, reflecting a shift towards a consumption-centric stimulus approach [12][10]. - The report outlines three scenarios: a base case with lingering deflation, an upside scenario with continued tariff de-escalation, and a downside scenario with tariff re-escalation [12]. Economic Growth Projections - Real GDP growth is projected at 4.5% for 2025, with a slight decline to 4.2% in 2026 under the base case scenario [12]. - The GDP deflator is expected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures, with estimates of -0.9% for 2025 and -0.7% for 2026 [12]. Tariff Analysis - The report assumes that US average tariffs on China will remain around 40%, with potential escalations still possible [13][14]. - China's export growth is expected to remain robust in Q2 2025 before declining in the second half of the year [15]. Domestic Stimulus and Policy Response - The focus of domestic stimulus will be on front-loading the announced RMB 2 trillion stimulus in the first three quarters of 2025, with a supplementary budget expected to be delayed until Q4 2025 [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from supply-centric policies to more consumption-driven strategies to address economic imbalances [70]. Consumption and Social Welfare - Consumption improvement has been policy-driven, but underlying momentum remains weak due to a sluggish job market [44]. - The report discusses the fragmented and unbalanced social welfare system in China, highlighting the need for reforms to enhance social safety nets [89][90]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is still too high relative to demand, with a need for structural reforms to address overcapacity issues [67][68]. - The report indicates that corporate pricing power remains subdued, with improvements in industrial profit driven by volume and cost reductions rather than pricing power [56]. RMB Outlook - The report forecasts mild appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with expectations of USDCNY reaching 7.15 by the end of 2025 [102][106]. - It also discusses the PBoC's plans for RMB internationalization and the establishment of a digital yuan international operations center in Shanghai [107][119].