汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 特朗普关税政策下在北美建厂公司将受 益，继续关注华为链 ——汽车行业周报（0407-0413） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，继续关注人形机器人链汽零投资机会，相关公司有望盈利和估值双 升；2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术方面领先的新势力企业将继续扩大市场 份额；预计部分央国企通过自身改革及加强对外合作等，实现困境反转。建议持续关注 部分汽车行业央国企及人形机器人链、华为产业链、小米产业链、T 链、智驾产业链公 司。 建议关注：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、长安汽车、中国重汽、广汽集团、宇通客 车；新泉股份、银轮股份、岱美股份、拓普集团、经纬恒润、爱柯迪、保隆科技、精锻 科技、贝斯特、瑞鹄模具、上声电子、双林股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛 西威、科博达、星宇股份、三花智控、继峰股份、上海沿浦、福耀玻璃、浙江荣泰等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 13 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | jiangxueqing ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company has exceeded dividend expectations, indicating potential for sustainable growth in the future [1]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 24.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year [6]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency [6]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 3.71, 4.22, and 4.83 yuan respectively, with a target price of 66.51 yuan based on an 18x PE valuation for 2025 [2][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 20.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.46 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating consistent profitability [2][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 4.97 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 16% [6][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline slightly from 22.6% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2027, reflecting a stable but slightly decreasing profitability trend [10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.5 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation as earnings grow [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the machinery industry [4] Core Insights - In March 2025, domestic excavator sales exceeded expectations, with a total of 29,590 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. Domestic sales accounted for 19,517 units, up 28.5% year-on-year, while exports reached 10,073 units, a 2.87% increase [1] - The increase in domestic excavator sales is attributed to stock demand renewal and policy funding support, with small excavators showing faster growth [1] - The ongoing tariff conflicts are expected to drive opportunities for domestic production and internal demand development, as high tariffs on imports from the U.S. may lead to a significant reduction in imported goods, benefiting domestic products [2] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, a total of 61,372 excavators were sold, marking a 22.8% year-on-year increase. Domestic sales for the same period reached 36,562 units, up 38.3%, while export sales were 24,810 units, a 5.49% increase, with exports accounting for 40.4% of total sales [1] Tariff Impact and Domestic Opportunities - The report outlines the escalation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, which could lead to a decline in imports from the U.S. and create opportunities for domestic products, particularly in machinery and electrical equipment sectors [2] - Suggested focus areas include agricultural machinery, engineering machinery, coal machinery, instrumentation, and domestic robotic systems [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to various companies within the machinery sector, including: - Engineering Machinery: Zhonglian Heavy Industry (000157, Buy), Anhui Heli (600761, Buy) [2] - Industrial Equipment: Yizumi Precision Machinery (300415, Buy) [2] - Energy Equipment: Jereh Petroleum Equipment (002353, Buy), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery (601717, Buy) [2] - Service & Consumption: Yongchuan Intelligent (603901, Buy) [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company has exceeded dividend expectations, indicating potential for sustainable growth in the future [1]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 24.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year [6]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency [6]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 3.71, 4.22, and 4.83 yuan respectively, with a target price of 66.51 yuan based on an 18x PE valuation for 2025 [2][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 20.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.46 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating consistent profitability [6][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 4.97 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 16% [6][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline slightly from 22.6% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2027, reflecting a stable but slightly decreasing profitability trend [10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.5 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation as earnings grow [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 39.00 CNY for 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue and performance in 2024, with a significant increase in new orders and backlog orders, laying a foundation for revenue and performance growth in 2025 [2]. - The company’s 2025-2027 net profit forecasts are 3.075 billion CNY, 3.636 billion CNY, and 4.225 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 3.00 CNY, 3.55 CNY, and 4.13 CNY [2]. - The report notes a slight downward adjustment in revenue growth expectations due to trade conflicts and uncertainties, while gross and net profit margins are slightly adjusted upwards due to scale effects and changes in exchange rates [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 13,912 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.9%. For 2024, revenue is projected to decline to 13,355 million CNY, a decrease of 4.0% [3]. - The operating profit for 2023 was 2,932 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7%. The operating profit is expected to increase to 3,213 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 9.6% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,454 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%. It is projected to rise to 2,627 million CNY in 2024, a growth of 7.0% [3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 32.8% in 2023 to 33.7% in 2024, while the net margin is projected to increase from 17.6% to 19.7% in the same period [3]. Order Growth and Market Position - The company secured new orders worth 182.32 billion CNY in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.64%. The backlog of orders reached 101.55 billion CNY, up 34.52% year-on-year [9]. - The company continues to lead in high-end equipment manufacturing, with a revenue of 91.80 billion CNY in this segment, reflecting a growth of 12.71% [9]. - Despite a decline in revenue from oil and gas engineering and technical services, new orders in this segment have doubled, indicating ongoing progress in overseas markets [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the machinery industry [4] Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, domestic excavator sales exceeded expectations, with a total of 29,590 units sold nationwide, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. Domestic sales accounted for 19,517 units, up 28.5% year-on-year, while exports reached 10,073 units, a growth of 2.87% [1] - The increase in domestic excavator sales is attributed to the renewal of existing demand and policy-driven funding, with small excavators showing faster growth [1] - The ongoing tariff conflicts are expected to create opportunities for domestic production and internal demand development, as high tariffs on imports from the U.S. may lead to a significant reduction in imported goods, benefiting domestic products [2] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, a total of 61,372 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.8%. Domestic sales during this period reached 36,562 units, up 38.3% year-on-year, while export sales were 24,810 units, with a growth of 5.49% [1] Tariff Impact and Domestic Opportunities - The report outlines the escalation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, with rates increasing to 125%. This situation is expected to enhance the competitiveness of domestic products in the market [2] - Key sectors to focus on include agricultural machinery, engineering machinery, coal machinery, instrumentation, and domestic robotic systems, which are anticipated to benefit from the shift towards domestic demand [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring specific companies within the engineering machinery sector, including Zhonglian Heavy Industry (000157, Buy) and Anhui HeLi (600761, Buy), among others across various segments such as industrial equipment and energy equipment [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 39.00 CNY for 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue and performance in 2024, with a significant increase in new orders and backlog, laying a foundation for growth in 2025 [2]. - Despite recent oil price fluctuations, the company is projected to see a steady performance, with a slight adjustment in revenue growth expectations due to trade conflicts and uncertainties [2]. - The forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is 30.75 billion CNY, 36.36 billion CNY, and 42.25 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 3.00 CNY, 3.55 CNY, and 4.13 CNY [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 13,912 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.9%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline to 13,355 million CNY, a decrease of 4.0% [3]. - The company's operating profit for 2023 was 2,932 million CNY, with a growth of 13.7%. The operating profit is projected to increase to 3,213 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 9.6% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,454 million CNY, with a growth of 9.3%. It is expected to rise to 2,627 million CNY in 2024, a growth of 7.0% [3]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 32.8% in 2023 to 34.9% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 19.7% from 2025 onwards [3]. Order and Market Performance - The company secured new orders worth 182.32 billion CNY in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.64%. The backlog of orders at the end of the reporting period was 101.55 billion CNY, up 34.52% [9]. - The company’s high-end equipment manufacturing revenue reached 91.80 billion CNY in 2024, a growth of 12.71%, maintaining its leading position in the oil and gas equipment sector [9]. - The overseas market continues to show promise, with significant new orders from major oil companies, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 44.66 CNY, based on an average PE valuation of 29 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The automotive electronics business is experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in revenue and an optimized customer structure [1][9]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 811 million, 1,012 million, and 1,253 million CNY respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 24.5% and 24.9% for 2026 and 2027 [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 10,158 million CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, with a net profit of 651 million CNY, up 40.1% [9]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.7%, with a slight decline due to accounting changes, while operating cash flow improved by 33.4% [9]. - The automotive electronics segment generated 76.03 billion CNY in revenue, marking a 57.6% increase, with significant market share gains in HUD and wireless charging products [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12,469 million, 14,699 million, and 17,273 million CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 22.8%, 17.9%, and 17.5% [4][12]. - The company expects to maintain a net profit margin of around 6.5% to 7.3% over the forecast period, with a return on equity projected to rise from 9.1% in 2023 to 15.0% in 2027 [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a global leader in copper and gold mining, possessing world-class mineral resources and top-tier technical and management capabilities. The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been raised to 1.49 yuan due to rising gold and copper prices, with additional forecasts for 2026 and 2027 set at 1.82 yuan and 2.20 yuan respectively. A target price of 23.84 yuan is established based on a 16X price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 73.24 billion yuan, a 7.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.69 billion yuan, up 55.3% year-on-year [8] - The company’s copper production exceeded 1 million tons, reaching 1.07 million tons, a 6% increase year-on-year. Gold production also rose to 73 tons, an 8% increase year-on-year. The sales costs for copper and gold decreased by 4.3% and 0.43% respectively, maintaining a position in the top 20% of global mining companies [8] - The company has made significant advancements in resource acquisition and exploration, with new copper resources of 14.726 million tons and gold resources of 54.1 tons added during the reporting period [8] Earnings Forecast Summary - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.49 yuan, 1.82 yuan, and 2.20 yuan respectively. The company is valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16X for 2025, leading to a target price of 23.84 yuan [2][9]

爱柯迪 600933.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 全球化布局稳步推进，布局机器人业务 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，新增 2027 年预测，预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 分别为 11.36、14.04、16.22 亿元（原 2025-2026 年为 13.78、17.44 亿元），可比 公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 19 倍，目标价 21.85 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、汽车铝合金铸件配套收入低于预期、新能源车产品收入低于 预期、机器人业务进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,957 | 6,746 | 8,075 | 9,391 | 10,697 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.7% | 13.2% | 19.7% | 16.3% | 13.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,065 | 1,092 | 1,287 | 1,594 ...