Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative model companies such as iFlytek, AI hardware companies like Yingshi Network, Hongsoft Technology, and Hesai, as well as companies like Maifushi that can enhance paid rates and ARPU values through AI-related functionalities [2]. Core Insights - The current market is in a relatively chaotic phase, with mixed macroeconomic signals and varying investor expectations. There is an increasing willingness among users to adopt AI technologies, although their payment capabilities remain limited. The industry is expected to see a shift towards theme-based investments driven by risk preferences, with potential for long-term adoption and market recovery [12][10]. - The report identifies high-growth sectors for 2025, including AI computing power and lidar, while noting that AI applications are accelerating. Stable growth is expected in software outsourcing, financial IT, quantum computing, data elements, EDA, overseas expansion, and domestic innovation [12][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The computer industry index increased by 2.12% from July 11 to July 18, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.03 percentage points [15]. - The report highlights the performance of various segments within the computer industry, indicating that AI computing power and lidar maintain high growth, while software outsourcing and financial IT are accelerating [10][12]. Key Events and Trends - Significant product launches include the Kimi K2 model with 1 trillion parameters and the AI imaging agent "RoboNeo" from Meitu, which aims to enhance image production efficiency for small businesses [12]. - The report anticipates that the second half of the year may yield better operational performance due to base effects, new technology/product launches, and policy implementations [12][10]. Sector Performance - The report categorizes various sectors based on their growth potential, with AI computing power and lidar maintaining high growth, while sectors like industrial software and medical IT are under pressure [13][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming AI Glasses Industry Innovation Application Summit and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference as key events to watch for investment opportunities [28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of July 18, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.40 years and 3.52 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.42 years, 3.67 years, and 2.48 years respectively. The durations of secondary capital bonds and general commercial financial bonds were at high levels. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.57 years, 1.78 years, 3.45 years, and 1.28 years respectively. Securities company bonds and securities sub - bonds were at lower historical quantiles, while leasing company bonds were at higher historical quantiles [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it dropped and slightly rose this week, currently at the 21.30% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Full - Variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading term hovered around 2.40 years. The durations of Guangdong prefecture - level and Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds exceeded 4.5 years, while the trading duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 0.44 years. The duration historical quantiles of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level, Fujian prefecture - level, Zhejiang district - level, and Chongqing district - level exceeded 90%, and the duration of Jiangsu district - level urban investment bonds approached the highest since 2021 [3][16]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading term shortened slightly compared to last week, generally around 3.52 years. The trading duration of the pharmaceutical and biological industry shortened to 2.88 years, while that of the building decoration industry extended to 4.45 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry was at a lower historical quantile, and industries such as public utilities, transportation, coal, commercial retail, and building materials were all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][23]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 2.48 years, at the 96.4% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.42 years, at the 98.6% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.67 years, at the 65.7% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][26]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 73.3%, 19.5%, 39.5%, and 76% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities sub - bonds slightly extended compared to last week [4][29]. 3.2 Variety Microscope - The coupon duration congestion index is the reciprocal of the standard deviation of durations among varieties. A larger index means a smaller standard deviation of duration changes among different varieties, indicating more consistent behavior. It should be analyzed in combination with the duration changes of each variety [15]. - The report provides various charts to show the average trading duration, historical quantiles of durations, and duration changes of different types of bonds, including credit bonds, non - financial credit bonds, urban investment bonds in different provinces, industrial bonds, commercial bank bonds, and other financial bonds [9]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a focus on companies with high earnings growth certainty and relatively high dividend support in the domestic market [4][9]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows a year-on-year increase of 28.7% in furniture retail sales in June, but demand has weakened since July due to the lack of new government subsidies [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector is witnessing a recovery, with Smoore's H1 2025 revenue expected to grow by 18% year-on-year, indicating stabilization in the vaping business [15][16]. - The paper and packaging industry is experiencing price stabilization, with expectations for a recovery in demand for white cardboard and cultural paper [17][18]. - The light industry and personal care sector is facing a downturn, but there are investment opportunities in leading brands [19][20]. - The toy sector, particularly Bubble Mart, is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 94% year-on-year increase in online sales of blind boxes in Q2 [21][22]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in Q3, driven by new policies in Vietnam promoting electric vehicle replacements [22][31]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Retail sales of furniture increased by 28.7% year-on-year in June, but demand has weakened since July due to subsidy issues [4][9]. - The overall real estate investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year in June, with residential construction area down by 4.3% [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - Smoore's H1 2025 revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the vaping market [15][16]. - The FDA's recent approvals for JUUL products suggest a positive trend in the U.S. compliance market [15][16]. Paper and Packaging Sector - Paper prices are stabilizing, with expectations for recovery in demand for specific paper types [17][18]. - The packaging sector is seeing improvements in profitability for metal packaging companies due to industry consolidation [17][18]. Light Industry and Personal Care - The sector is experiencing a downturn, but leading brands are still seen as investment opportunities [19][20]. - Online sales for personal care products have shown mixed results, with some categories facing increased competition [20][23]. Toy Sector - Bubble Mart is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 209% year-on-year increase in GMV [21][22]. - The overall toy market is benefiting from new operational models and IP advantages [21][22]. Two-Wheeler Market - The market is expected to rebound in Q3, with new policies in Vietnam promoting electric vehicle replacements [22][31]. - Leading companies in the sector are expected to show good growth in their mid-year reports [22][31].

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industries discussed. Core Insights - The copper market shows a mixed outlook with a slight increase in LME copper prices by 1.36% to $9,794.50 per ton, while domestic prices slightly decreased. The supply side indicates a decrease in copper inventory, but downstream demand remains cautious due to price fluctuations [2][15]. - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal weakness, with LME aluminum prices up by 1.38% to $2,638.00 per ton, but overall demand remains low, and inventory levels are fluctuating [3][16]. - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold prices slightly increasing by 0.01% to $3,355.50 per ounce, reflecting a growing short-term safe-haven appeal [4][17]. - The rare earth sector is seeing price recovery due to tightening supply expectations and increasing demand, particularly with significant investments from companies like MP Materials [5][39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with prices holding steady as domestic smelting operations face reductions, and new regulations may boost demand [5][40]. - The molybdenum market is showing upward momentum with low inventory levels and increasing demand from the steel sector, indicating a positive outlook for prices [6][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices increased slightly, but downstream demand is cautious due to price volatility. The operating rate for copper rod enterprises rose to 77.22% [2][15]. - Aluminum prices increased, but the overall demand remains weak, with a notable decrease in operating rates in the aluminum processing industry [3][16]. - Gold prices are influenced by international trade tensions, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][17]. 2. Rare Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - The rare earth market is experiencing upward price trends due to supply tightening and increasing demand, with significant investments from major companies [5][39]. - Antimony prices are stabilizing, with expectations of recovery in exports and new regulations potentially boosting demand [5][40]. - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise due to low inventory levels and increasing demand from the steel industry [6][41]. 3. Small Metals and Rare Earth Fundamentals Update - The rare earth sector is projected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, with a favorable regulatory environment [5][39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with potential for price recovery due to reduced domestic production and regulatory changes [5][40]. - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise as demand from the steel sector increases and inventory levels remain low [6][41].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in SF Holding due to its valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [2] - The report also recommends the aviation sector, specifically Air China and China Southern Airlines, due to expected profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry saw a year-on-year growth of 15.8% in business volume in June, with SF Holding leading the growth [2] - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3] - The aviation sector is experiencing robust growth, with Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines leading in RPK growth [4] - The shipping sector is facing challenges, with the CCFI index showing a significant year-on-year decline of 40.2% [5] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index increased by 0.2% from July 12 to July 18, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.8% [1][13] Express Delivery - In June, the national express delivery business volume reached 168.7 billion pieces, with a revenue of 126.32 billion yuan, marking a 9.0% year-on-year increase [2] - The average revenue per delivery decreased by 5.9% to 7.49 yuan [2] Logistics - The chemical products price index (CCPI) is at 4021 points, down 14.3% year-on-year [3] - Hai Chen Co. is recommended due to its strategic partnerships and improved demand in consumer electronics [3] Aviation - The average daily flights in China increased by 3.29% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 1.89% [4] - RPK growth for major airlines shows significant increases, with Spring Airlines at +12% compared to 2024 [4] Shipping - The CCFI index is at 1303.54 points, down 0.8% week-on-week and down 40.2% year-on-year [5] - The BDI index increased by 29.9% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in dry bulk shipping [5][38] Road and Rail - The national highway freight traffic increased by 0.19% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 0.82% [6][81] - The railway passenger turnover increased by 3.61% year-on-year, while freight turnover showed a slight decline [79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong confidence in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, suggesting that the sector will experience a reversal in 2025 [4]. Core Views - The innovative drug sector continues to be the main investment theme, with a focus on dual/multi-antibody drugs for various cancers and chronic disease drugs that meet unmet clinical needs [2][4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of leading pharmaceutical companies, such as China Biologic Products and Hansoh Pharmaceutical, following the clearance of procurement risks after multiple rounds of generic drug procurement [12]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the rose acne treatment market, with the announcement of CKBA cream's acceptance for clinical trials, indicating a significant opportunity for innovative therapies in this area [38][45]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Sector - The innovative drug market is showing strong upward momentum, with the A-share innovation drug index rising over 6% and the H-share index increasing over 14% [19]. - The report notes that 48 out of 52 listed companies in the A-share innovative drug sector experienced stock price increases, with an average rise of 10.5% [22]. - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug pipelines that address chronic diseases and unmet clinical needs, particularly in the context of potential overperformance in semi-annual reports [2][4]. Biologics - The approval of semaglutide for chronic kidney disease (CKD) indicates a growing interest in GLP-1 class drugs beyond weight management and type 2 diabetes [2]. Medical Devices - Domestic innovative products continue to receive approvals, with leading companies like Xinmai Medical showing promising recovery in performance [3]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - Companies in the traditional Chinese medicine sector are actively seeking new growth points through new drug pipelines, particularly in weight loss and diabetes treatment [3]. Market Potential - The global market for rosacea treatment is projected to grow from approximately $2.12 billion in 2024 to around $4.23 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.14% [45][47]. - The report highlights the lack of effective treatments for rosacea, indicating a significant unmet need and potential for innovative therapies [48].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a low allocation to real estate stocks while highlighting potential recovery opportunities in the third quarter [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with A-share real estate stocks down by 2.2% and Hong Kong real estate stocks down by 0.4% during the week of July 12-18 [2]. - The land market shows a rising premium rate, with an average premium rate of 11% for residential land in 300 cities, despite a significant year-on-year decline in transaction volume [2][41]. - Sales of new homes in 47 cities totaled 253 million square meters, reflecting a 6% decrease week-on-week and a 9% decrease year-on-year, indicating a seasonal low [3][46]. - The report notes that some real estate companies are beginning to show signs of profit recovery, with 27 out of 73 companies forecasting positive net profits for the first half of 2025 [5][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector ranked 30th among all sectors with a decline of 2.2%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked 12th with a decline of 0.4% [2][27]. - The property service index in Hong Kong also saw a decline of 0.4%, underperforming compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which increased by 3.4% [2][33]. Land Market - In the week of July 12-18, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 450 million square meters, down 20% week-on-week and 49% year-on-year, with a cumulative area of 19,610 million square meters for the year, reflecting a 5% year-on-year decrease [2][41]. Sales Data - New home sales in June showed a slight month-on-month price decline of 0.3% and a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, indicating a stabilizing market despite ongoing price pressures [3][4]. - The second-hand housing market also reflected similar trends, with a 1% increase week-on-week but a 3% decrease year-on-year in transaction volume [3]. Company Performance - Among the 73 real estate companies that released performance forecasts, 27 expect positive net profits, while 46 anticipate losses. Notably, 6 companies are expected to report profit increases, including prominent firms like Binhai Group and Poly Development [5][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the third quarter will be crucial for policy adjustments that could impact the real estate market's performance in the latter half of the year. It recommends investing in companies with strong product capabilities and those likely to benefit from favorable policies [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the copper foil and electronic cloth sectors within the PCB upstream materials industry, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the high demand for high-end PCB materials, particularly RTF and HVLP copper foils, which are essential for high-frequency and high-speed circuit boards. The production of HVLP copper foil is challenging due to the need for low profile and high peel strength [1][12]. - The electronic cloth market is also highlighted, with advancements in technology, such as NVIDIA's potential new techniques, expected to drive demand for quartz cloth. The report notes the advantages of quartz cloth over low-dielectric electronic cloth in terms of dielectric constant and loss [2][13]. - The report identifies Keda Manufacturing as a leading player in the African building materials market, with significant growth in net profit driven by price optimization and new ceramic capacity. The company is well-positioned to benefit from local production and consumption in Africa [2][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - The report continues to explore the potential of PCB upstream new materials, particularly focusing on copper foil and electronic cloth. It notes the low domestic production rate of high-end copper foil and the significant upgrade potential in the supply chain [1][12]. 2. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices have decreased to an average of 344 RMB/t, with a year-on-year drop of 46 RMB. The average utilization rate for concrete mixing stations is reported at 7.26% [3][15]. - The average price of float glass has increased slightly to 1211.96 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week rise of 0.58%. The report indicates a decrease in inventory days for production enterprises [3][15]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the glass fiber market, with prices for 2400tex alkali-free winding yarn averaging 3649 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight decline [3][15]. 3. National Subsidy Tracking - A new initiative in Yunnan Province offers subsidies for home improvement products aimed at elderly consumers, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 RMB per household [4][16]. 4. Important Changes - Keda Manufacturing expects a net profit of 700-790 million RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 54-74% [5][18]. - Huaxin Cement anticipates a net profit of 1.096-1.132 billion RMB for the same period, reflecting a 50-55% increase [5][18]. 5. Market Performance - The building materials index has shown a decline of 0.89% this week, with specific sectors like cement manufacturing and glass manufacturing experiencing varied performance [21][27]. 6. Building Material Price Changes - The report notes a continued decline in national cement prices, with a 1% decrease this week. The average utilization rate for cement enterprises is around 46% [33][33]. - The float glass market remains stable, with slight price increases observed in certain regions, while the overall supply-demand balance remains tight [45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer this period rose 6 percentage points to 52%, with significant increases in some indicators and slight decreases in others [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35%, with changes in the intervals of several indicators [3][19]. - Only the average value of the matching percentile of price ratios declined, while different categories of indicators showed different trends [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose 6 percentage points to 52%. Indicators with large increases in percentile values include fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, and allocation disk strength, while TL/T long - short ratio, market - wide turnover rate, stock - bond price ratio, institutional leverage, and listed company wealth management buying volume decreased slightly [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 6 (30%) in the neutral range, and 7 (35%) in the cold range. 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume moved from the cold to the over - heated range, allocation disk strength from the neutral to the over - heated range, TL/T long - short ratio from the over - heated to the neutral range, and stock - bond price ratio from the neutral to the cold range [3][19]. 3.3. Sub - categories of Indicators 3.3.1. Trading Heat - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among trading heat indicators decreased to 50%, in the neutral range increased to 33%, and in the cold range decreased to 17%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile rose 55 percentage points to the over - heated range, while the TL/T long - short ratio percentile decreased 22 percentage points to the neutral range [5][22]. 3.3.2. Institutional Behavior - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among institutional behavior indicators increased to 50%, in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and in the cold range decreased to 25%. Allocation disk strength percentile rose 18 percentage points to 76% and entered the over - heated range, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile rose 67 percentage points to the over - heated range [6][24]. 3.3.3. Policy Spread - The 3 - year Treasury bond yield declined slightly, and the policy spread narrowed from 2bp to 0bp, with the percentile rising 6 percentage points to 48% (neutral range). Credit spread, agricultural development - state - owned development spread, and IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed, and their average spread percentile rose 7 percentage points to 50% (neutral range) [7][30]. 3.3.4. Stock - Bond Price Ratio - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range increased to 100%. Only the stock - bond price ratio percentile decreased 15 percentage points to the cold range, while the commodity price ratio percentile rose 6 percentage points to 15%, and the real - estate price ratio changed little [8][33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 2.91% over the last week, ranking 4th among 31 primary industry categories, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.09% [3][13]. - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 13.53%, ranking 6th among the 31 primary industry categories, compared to a 3.14% increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [3][16]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for Yingliu Co., which is the sole supplier of gas turbine blades for Siemens Energy in China, indicating a significant increase in orders [5][24]. - Yushu Technology has initiated its IPO process, which is expected to accelerate its robotics business development [5][24]. - The first commercial linear field reversed magnetic fusion device in China has achieved plasma ignition, indicating a breakthrough in controllable nuclear fusion commercialization [5][25]. - The report identifies various industry segments with differing trends: General Machinery is under pressure, Engineering Machinery is steadily improving, Shipbuilding is stabilizing, Oilfield Equipment is bottoming out, Railway Equipment is steadily improving, and Gas Turbines are on an upward trend [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index rose by 2.91% last week, ranking 4th among 31 primary industry categories [3][13]. - Year-to-date performance shows a 13.53% increase in the SW Machinery Equipment Index, ranking 6th [3][16]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The General Machinery sector is under pressure, with a PMI of 49.7% in June, indicating contraction [26]. - Industrial vehicle sales from January to May showed a 9.33% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales up by 6.66% [26]. Engineering Machinery - The Engineering Machinery sector is showing steady improvement, with excavator sales in June reaching 18,804 units, a 13.3% year-on-year increase [34]. Railway Equipment - The Railway Equipment sector is experiencing steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% growth [44]. Shipbuilding - The Shipbuilding sector is stabilizing, with the global new ship price index showing signs of improvement [45]. Oilfield Equipment - The Oilfield Equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with global rig counts reaching 1,600 units [47]. Industrial Gases - The Industrial Gases sector is expected to perform well in Q3 due to previous maintenance activities [52]. Gas Turbines - The Gas Turbine sector is on an upward trend, with significant order growth reported for GEV [54][56].