Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a potential growth exceeding the market average in the coming months [37]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY25Q1 performance shows steady growth with revenue of $2.371 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.32%, although slightly below analyst expectations of $2.57 billion. The gross margin improved by 0.62 percentage points to 58.34% due to reduced product costs and optimized discounts [10][12]. - The company expects full-year revenue to be between $11.15 billion and $11.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5%-7%. Excluding the additional week in 2024, the expected growth is 7%-8% [15][10]. - In North America, revenue reached $1.675 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, while the Chinese market showed strong performance with revenue of $368 million, up 21% year-on-year [12][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In April, apparel retail sales grew by 2.2%, underperforming the overall consumer market due to adverse weather conditions affecting spring apparel sales. The report anticipates improvement in May due to better weather and increased consumer activity [16][3]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with fluctuations in cotton and synthetic fiber prices noted [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommendations include Hai Lan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and expanding its store presence, and Anta Sports, which is expected to benefit from strong performance in its multi-brand strategy. Additionally, recommendations include leading brands like Bi Yin Le Fen and All Cotton Times [22][4]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, the report suggests that leading textile manufacturers like Zhejiang Ziran and Shenzhou International are well-positioned to benefit from market shifts due to tariff impacts [22][4]. Market Review and Company News - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.89% increase in the past week, with notable performances from companies like Langsha and Huasheng [23][28]. - Key company announcements include Nanshan Zhishang's stock issuance and Jiangnan Buyi's land bidding for industrial use [34][34].

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"24 淮建 01"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中， "25 深铁 03"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 04"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净 价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"23 中行二级资本债 01B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期 限(年) | 估值价格 偏离(%) | 估值净价 (元) | 估值收益 | 当日估值 收益(%) | 票面利率 (%) | 隐含评 级 | 主体评 级 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 率偏离 | | | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | | | | | 24 淮建 01 | 4.28 | -0.25 | 101.55 | 6.20 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][10]. Core Views - The company is transitioning to an IDM model, integrating chip design and wafer manufacturing, which will enhance its product offerings in high-demand sectors such as AI, automotive electronics, and IoT [3][4]. - The acquisition of a majority stake in Zhongxin Ningbo will enable the company to expand its capabilities in high-end filter and MEMS manufacturing, addressing the growing demand for RF front-end components in 5G devices [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - On June 5, 2025, the company announced a plan to acquire 94.366% of Zhongxin Ningbo's shares through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, along with raising supporting funds from up to 35 qualified investors [2]. Operational Analysis - The company previously operated under a Fabless model, focusing on providing chip solutions for various applications. The acquisition will allow it to produce specialized components, thereby broadening its market reach [3]. Acquisition Strategy - Zhongxin Ningbo is recognized as a leading domestic semiconductor foundry with unique capabilities in filter manufacturing and MEMS technology, which will significantly enhance the company's product portfolio and market position [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 129 million, 221 million, and 309 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.60, 1.02, and 1.42 RMB [5][7].

- Artificial Intelligence Global Asset Allocation Model: The model applies machine learning to asset allocation, using factor investment to score and rank assets, and ultimately constructs a monthly frequency quantitative equal-weight allocation strategy for global assets[35] - Construction Process: The model suggests weights for June as follows: Treasury Index (68.18%), ICE Brent Oil (13.35%), Nikkei 225 Index (11.60%), and Nasdaq Index (6.87%). The weights for ICE Brent Oil and Nikkei 225 Index were increased, while the weights for Treasury and German DAX Index were decreased[35][38] - Evaluation: The model has shown superior performance compared to the benchmark in various dimensions, including annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown[35] - Testing Results: From January 2021 to May 2025, the model's annualized return is 6.54%, Sharpe ratio is 0.75, maximum drawdown is -6.66%, excess annualized return is 1.09%, excess Sharpe ratio is 0.19, and excess maximum drawdown is -8.67%. The benchmark's annualized return is 5.05%, Sharpe ratio is 0.54, and maximum drawdown is -12.67%[35][39] - Stock-Bond Allocation Model: The model is based on macro timing modules and risk budgeting framework, producing weights for three different risk profiles: aggressive, stable, and conservative[40] - Construction Process: For June, the stock weights for aggressive, stable, and conservative profiles are 45%, 13.92%, and 0%, respectively. The model's signals for May were 50% for economic growth and 40% for monetary liquidity[40][42] - Evaluation: The model has performed well historically, with all three profiles showing superior performance compared to the benchmark in various dimensions[40] - Testing Results: From January 2005 to May 2025, the annualized returns for aggressive, stable, and conservative profiles are 19.90%, 10.97%, and 6.04%, respectively. The benchmark's annualized return is 8.50%. The Sharpe ratios for aggressive, stable, and conservative profiles are 1.28, 1.18, and 1.51, respectively, compared to the benchmark's 0.51[40][47] - Dividend Style Timing Model: The model uses economic growth and monetary liquidity indicators to construct a timing strategy for the dividend index, showing significant stability improvement compared to the full return of the CSI Dividend Index[48] - Construction Process: For May, the model recommended a 100% position in the CSI Dividend Index. Most economic growth indicators were bullish, while monetary liquidity signals were cautious, resulting in a composite signal of 100%[48] - Evaluation: The timing strategy has shown stable performance, with significant improvements in annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown compared to the CSI Dividend Index[48] - Testing Results: The annualized return of the timing strategy is 15.74%, Sharpe ratio is 0.89, and maximum drawdown is -21.70%. The CSI Dividend Index's annualized return is 11.26%, Sharpe ratio is 0.56, and maximum drawdown is -36.80%[48][51]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.93 CNY based on a 15x valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a market share of nearly 70% in the gypsum board market, which has a size of approximately 150-200 billion CNY. The company aims to enhance the consumption attributes of gypsum boards, reduce costs, expand product categories, and accelerate internationalization [2][14]. - The company has adopted a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on waterproof materials and coatings, with significant revenue growth in both segments [3]. - The company has implemented a restricted stock incentive plan, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of non-net profit attributable to shareholders of at least 14.22%, 16.12%, and 17.08% for 2025-2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Gypsum Board Consumption Attributes - The company has a gypsum board market share of 67.38%, with a production volume of 2.165 billion square meters in 2023 [14]. - The company is focused on cost reduction, with a projected unit cost of 3.71 CNY per square meter in 2024, down by 0.19 CNY from the previous year [52]. - The company is expanding its product categories, including light steel keels and powder mortar, and is investing in gypsum fiber boards for interior and partition walls [2][63]. Section 2: Waterproof and Coating Business Expansion - The waterproofing materials segment has reached a revenue scale among the top three in the industry, while the coatings segment is expanding through acquisitions, including a significant merger with Jiaboli [3]. - The company’s coating production capacity is expected to increase from 103,000 tons to over 1.3 million tons by the end of 2024 [3]. Section 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts revenues of 28.168 billion CNY, 30.126 billion CNY, and 32.317 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 7%, and 7% [4][8]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.142 billion CNY, 4.449 billion CNY, and 4.813 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 14%, 7%, and 8% [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the photovoltaic industry, indicating a potential for recovery driven by market forces and government policies [4][38]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant supply-side challenges, with nominal capacity exceeding 1000 GW, leading to a prolonged period of losses across the supply chain [8][17]. - Government initiatives and self-discipline among enterprises are expected to facilitate a turnaround in the industry, with a focus on market-driven solutions [4][38]. - Domestic demand is projected to remain stable, supported by policy measures and a robust global demand outlook, with an expected growth in new installations of 5%-10% in 2025 [4][39]. Supply Side Summary - The supply-side issues in the photovoltaic industry have been exacerbated, prompting top-level policy interventions aimed at resolving structural contradictions [11][38]. - The industry has seen a trend of mergers and acquisitions, particularly among second and third-tier battery and component manufacturers, indicating a market-driven supply-side clearing process [12][38]. - The report highlights the importance of market forces in addressing the oversupply situation, with expectations for improved profitability as excess capacity is gradually eliminated [5][38]. Demand Side Summary - Domestic demand is expected to remain stable, with policies in place to support a smooth transition and mitigate fears of a sharp decline in demand [4][39]. - Global demand for photovoltaic products is anticipated to continue growing, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [4][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between supply and demand to ensure sustainable growth in the industry [4][39]. Technological Advancements Summary - The report identifies three key technological pathways that could provide competitive advantages, particularly in the context of cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4]. - The advancement of new materials and processes, such as low-silver and no-silver metallization, is highlighted as critical for reducing costs across various technology routes [4][5]. - Companies with strong cross-border operational capabilities are expected to gain a competitive edge in the globalized supply chain [4][5]. Financial Health Summary - The financial health of the photovoltaic supply chain remains under pressure, with many companies experiencing cash flow losses and high debt levels [17][29]. - The report notes that most companies have asset-liability ratios exceeding 70%, indicating significant financial strain and limited fundraising capabilities for second and third-tier firms [17][29]. - A focus on cash management and reduced capital expenditures is evident as companies navigate the challenging financial landscape [21][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the areas of virtual assets and Web3.0 development, suggesting a strong investment opportunity in these sectors [2][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring global tariff negotiations, particularly the recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations and their potential impact on market dynamics [9]. - There is a notable increase in the quality and risk appetite of Hong Kong assets, with a focus on asset trading platforms as valuable investment opportunities [9]. - The report highlights the active performance of virtual asset-related stocks in Hong Kong, driven by stablecoin policies, and anticipates further regulatory developments in this area [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Situation Tracking 1.1 Education - The K12 education sector shows strong growth, with leading institutions reporting over 20% revenue growth for winter training sessions [4]. - Recent product launches in AI education indicate ongoing innovation in the sector [4][17]. 1.2 Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector is experiencing disruptions due to U.S.-EU tariff policies, with cautious price increases observed among brands [4][19]. - LVMH expresses confidence in the Chinese market despite recent consumption declines, indicating a long-term positive outlook [21]. 1.3 Coffee and Beverage Chains - Coffee and tea remain key categories for delivery platforms, with recent subsidies from platforms like JD.com [4]. - Coffee futures have seen a significant decline, which may alleviate cost pressures for companies like Luckin Coffee [4][27]. 1.4 E-commerce - Major players like Alibaba and JD.com continue to compete aggressively in the delivery and retail sectors, impacting short-term profitability [4]. - The report notes strong performance in the "618" shopping festival, with significant growth in various product categories [32]. 2. Platform & Technology 2.1 Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector shows resilience, with Tencent Music and other platforms benefiting from scale effects [4][33]. - Recent transactions, such as HYBE's sale of SM Entertainment shares to Tencent Music, highlight strategic movements within the industry [34]. 2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization is reported at $337.44 billion, reflecting a 4% decline [38]. - The introduction of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong marks a significant step in regulating digital asset activities [41].

2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

本周观点 持续关注全球关税谈判： 投资逻辑 持续关注全球关税谈判。1）综合港股 IPO（无论是 A+H 还是新股 IPO）和成交量等因素来看，港股的资产质量、 风险偏好等都有显著提升，积极寻找港股的机会，其中资产交易平台的价值凸显。2）我们持续看好香港虚拟资 产、Web3.0 市场的发展，由于稳定币政策刺激，近期香港虚拟资产的相关个股表现活跃。我们认为，稳定币政策 只是香港虚拟资产大趋势下的一环，未来还会有更多政策制度出台。短期个股层面涨幅较大，建议关注业务持续 落地能力。3）我们看好美股中概回港趋势。 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：结合近期财报看，K12 教培行业景气良好，头部机构寒假培训收入增速多在 20%以上，非学科课程续班率 提升，继续看好头部机构转型后持续扩大市场份额。另外，上周高途推出毛豆爱学 AI 课堂、作业帮上线免费高 考志愿填报产品，持续关注 AI 教育进展。 奢侈品：美国对欧盟关税政策对板块的扰动持续。基本面来看，宏观经济影响奢侈 ...

通信周观点： 1）DeepSeek-R1-0528 发布，推理能力增强、幻觉率降低。DeepSeek-R1-0528 仍然采用 DeepSeek V3 Base 模型作为 基座，模型参数为 685B，开源版本可支持 128K 上下文总长度。在 AIME 2025 测试中，新版模型准确率由旧版的 70% 提升至 87.5%，主要得益于模型在推理过程中的思维深度增强：新版模型平均每题使用 23K tokens，约为旧版的两倍。 此外，与旧版相比，更新后的模型在改写润色、总结摘要、阅读理解等场景中，幻觉率降低了约 45-50%。我们认为， 国产大模型能力的持续优化将加速 AI 推理需求增长，利好国产算力芯片及 AI 服务器厂商。2）英伟达发布 1Q25 财 报，Blackwell 整体表现强劲，预计贡献数据中心收入的 70%，并已登陆 AWS、谷歌云等四大云平台。GB200 散热难题 得到攻克，并已于 1Q25 出货；GB300 将于 3Q25 出货。我们看好英伟达服务器组装厂、高速光模块厂商、液冷供应商 迎来业绩放量。同时，受到美国出口管制影响，英伟达针对中国市场的 H20 芯片计提了 45 亿美元库存减值（低于 ...