市场资金观点分歧， 建议配置上偏向均衡 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W17） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 27 日 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W17)：市场资金观点分 歧，建议配置上偏向均衡 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's performance and growth potential [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a significant increase in profitability, with 2024 revenue reaching 5.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million, up 258.1% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.9%, with a net profit of 80 million, up 80.5% year-on-year and 41.7% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company has seen a continuous high-speed growth in performance, with a notable reduction in expense ratios [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhongtong Bus achieved a gross margin of 18.6%, down 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 4.3%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 15.1%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and down 8.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin was 4.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and up 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market for new energy buses continues to benefit from subsidy policies, with a significant recovery in the travel group market. In 2024, domestic revenue reached 2.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [2]. - The Chinese bus industry is experiencing a notable recovery, with sales of buses over 6 meters reaching 126,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, the highest since 2020 [2]. International Expansion - The overseas market demand is high, with the company’s export sales increasing by 35.9% year-on-year. The Middle East market has shown remarkable performance, with significant orders from Saudi Arabia and the UAE [2]. - The company has successfully developed high-end electric and fuel models for markets in Europe, Russia, and Singapore, enhancing its brand influence and market competitiveness [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The automotive industry is experiencing accelerated electric and intelligent transformation, supported by favorable policies that are expected to drive steady growth in sales. The inclusion of National IV heavy trucks in the trade-in subsidy program is anticipated to catalyze domestic sales in the heavy truck sector [4] - Major automakers are launching new models and technologies, with NIO planning to release nine new models in 2025, including the global debut of a 5nm smart driving chip [3][10] - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.98%, ranking second among major industry sectors [3][16] Summary by Sections Industry News Highlights - Kabeiyi and Xiaopeng Motors are collaborating on robotic cable technology [3] - Huawei launched the HUAWEI ADS 4, the first commercial L3 solution for highways [3][10] - NIO announced nine new models for 2025, including the flagship SUV L90 [3][10] - Chery unveiled its new overseas brand strategy at the Shanghai Auto Show [3][10] - The Ministry of Commerce reported 2.705 million vehicles traded in under the old-for-new policy [3][10] Market Performance - The automotive sector in A-shares outperformed the market, with a 4.98% increase compared to a 0.38% rise in the CSI 300 index [3][16] - The passenger vehicle sector saw a PE valuation increase, with NIO and Xiaomi leading the gains [5][19] New Model Releases - The Lynk & Co 900 is set to launch on April 28, 2025, with a price range of 330,000 to 435,000 CNY [22] - Leap Motor's B01 model was showcased, expected to feature advanced smart driving capabilities [11] Upstream Data Tracking - Steel prices have slightly increased, while aluminum prices have decreased [23][24] - The price of natural rubber has risen, and the price of lithium carbonate has stabilized after a decline [28][29]

Domestic Developments - The National Energy Administration allows carbon trading companies to separately account for carbon emissions from purchased green electricity, highlighting the establishment of a green certificate system framework in China[11] - The three major stock exchanges in China revised listing rules to clarify responsibilities of key stakeholders and enhance protections for minority shareholders, aligning with the new Company Law[15] ESG Financial Products Tracking - As of April 27, 2025, a total of 3,557 ESG bonds have been issued in China, with a total outstanding amount of 5.61 trillion RMB, of which green bonds account for 58.70%[25] - The total net asset value of 671 existing ESG public funds is 82.43 billion RMB, with ESG strategy products making up 46.66% of this total[26] - There are 828 existing ESG bank wealth management products, with pure ESG products representing 59.42% of the total[30] Index Performance - As of April 25, 2025, major ESG indices have shown positive growth, with the Wind All A Sustainable ESG index increasing by 0.77% and the CSI 300 ESG index rising by 0.27%[32] Expert Insights - Experts emphasize the need for technological breakthroughs to address challenges posed by the US-China trade tensions on climate issues, indicating that cooperation on climate change remains crucial despite geopolitical tensions[7]

Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 674 billion CNY this week, with a significant 600 billion CNY MLF operation on Friday, marking a net MLF injection of 500 billion CNY for April, the highest since 2024[2][6]. - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased by 0.01 trillion CNY to 6.34 trillion CNY, indicating a recovery in market activity[14]. Interest Rate Trends - The DR007 rate fell to 1.64%, the lowest since mid-January, reflecting stable liquidity conditions despite the central bank's shift to net absorption in the latter half of the week[6][21]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts has diminished, with the market showing a muted response to the political bureau's reiteration of "timely cuts" in monetary policy[21][22]. Government Debt Issuance - In April, the total issuance of government bonds reached 2.16 trillion CNY, with a net financing scale of 793.8 billion CNY, a decrease of approximately 680 billion CNY compared to March[29]. - The upcoming week will see a net repayment of government debt increasing from -130.1 billion CNY to 121.1 billion CNY, indicating a shift in cash flow dynamics[23][25]. Institutional Behavior - The net financing from banks returned above 3 trillion CNY, reflecting the central bank's commitment to maintaining stable liquidity, although there is no intention to significantly lower funding costs in the short term[21][22]. - The cross-month progress of various institutions reached 37.7%, the highest level in five years, influenced by the unique trading calendar of April[18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Runben Co., Ltd. (603193) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on recent performance and product launches [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the successful promotion of new sunscreen products and the promising potential of the youth series, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the company [1][2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.318 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6%, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, up 32.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 240 million yuan, representing a 44% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 44 million yuan, up 24.6% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's baby care products generated revenue of 690 million yuan, a 32.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 59.8% [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 for baby care products showed a revenue of 179 million yuan, a remarkable 65.6% increase year-on-year, driven by higher average prices of new products [2]. - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 57.7%, with a net profit margin of 18.4% [3]. Product Development - The sunscreen gel launched in February 2025 is expected to see rapid sales growth due to its favorable skin feel and cost-effectiveness [2]. - The mosquito repellent segment also showed strong performance, with revenue of 439 million yuan in 2024, a 35.4% increase year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit for Runben Co., Ltd. from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 400 million yuan, 530 million yuan, and 704 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36X, 27X, and 20X [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [128] Core Viewpoints - Concerns over tariffs persist, leading to weakened downstream demand in the refining sector [1] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending April 25, 2025, was $66.54 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.39% [1][2] - Domestic and international refining project price differentials are being closely monitored, with domestic projects showing a decrease of 0.99% and international projects increasing by 1.63% [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The refining sector is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC production adjustments, with Brent and WTI prices at $66.87 and $63.02 per barrel respectively [1][15] - Domestic refined oil prices have generally decreased, while overseas prices have seen some increases [1] - The stock performance of six major private refining companies varied, with notable increases for companies like Dongfang Shenghong (+7.59%) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.24%) over the past week [1][116] Chemical Sector - Chemical products are facing price declines due to tariff impacts, with polyethylene demand remaining weak and prices for polypropylene also decreasing [1][56] - The price of MMA has decreased slightly, while the price of styrene has seen a minor increase due to reduced inventory levels [1][56] Polyester Sector - The polyester sector is still affected by tariffs, with weak demand leading to price declines in polyester filament [1][96] - PX prices have shown a slight increase, while MEG prices continue to decline [1][87][98] Price Differentials - As of April 25, 2025, the domestic refining project price differential was 2303.99 CNY/ton, down by 22.98 CNY/ton, while the international differential was 945.20 CNY/ton, up by 15.16 CNY/ton [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.275 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 214 million yuan, a decrease of 36.2% [1][2] - The apparel business continues to grow rapidly, with significant sales increases across various product categories, particularly in apparel and accessories, which saw a revenue of 7.447 billion yuan, up 59.4% year-on-year [2] - Inventory factors are impacting the company's short-term profitability and operational efficiency, with inventory turnover days increasing to approximately 81 days in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 10.275 billion yuan, with a net profit of 214 million yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability [1][6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.8%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous year [3] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 331 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 611 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.9X, 18.3X, and 13.5X [6] Business Segments - The company’s revenue from apparel and accessories reached 7.447 billion yuan, while non-apparel accessory sales were 2.324 billion yuan, indicating strong growth in the apparel segment [2] - The top five brands contributed significantly to revenue, accounting for approximately 59% of total sales, with notable growth rates among these brands [2] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on deepening its brand strategy and expanding into non-American markets, particularly Europe, while also enhancing its overseas supply chain [4] - The company has established a factory in Vietnam and is working with quality suppliers in Southeast Asia to mitigate trade risks [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.70%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing gains of 2.45% and 3.33% respectively [3][11]. - As of April 25, 2025, the average daily pig iron production reached 2.4435 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 4.23% and a year-on-year increase of 18.13% [3][25]. - The report highlights a decrease in the consumption of five major steel products, with total consumption dropping to 9.263 million tons, a week-on-week decline of 22.39 thousand tons [3][34]. - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 10.834 million tons, down 41.40 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting a 3.68% decline [3][41]. - The report notes an increase in the price index for ordinary steel, which rose to 3,477.1 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 19.44 CNY/ton [3][47]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies was 91.6%, up 1.45 percentage points week-on-week [3][25]. - Electric furnace capacity utilization was reported at 56.7%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points week-on-week [3][25]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.664 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.44 thousand tons [3][25]. Demand - The report indicates a decline in the consumption of five major steel products, with a total of 9.263 million tons consumed, down 2.36% week-on-week [3][34]. - The transaction volume for construction steel among mainstream traders was 121 thousand tons, which increased by 11.56% week-on-week [3][34]. - The report also mentions a decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, which fell to 149.4 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 15.2 million square meters [3][34]. Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 10.834 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week [3][41]. - Factory inventory for the same products was reported at 4.508 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.96% [3][41]. Prices - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel reached 3,477.1 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.90% [3][47]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was reported at 6,641.6 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.04% [3][47]. Profitability - The average profit for blast furnace steel production was reported at 98 CNY/ton, an increase of 25.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][56]. - The average profit for electric furnace steel production was reported at -357.04 CNY/ton, a decrease of 32.5 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][56]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was reported at 57.58%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points week-on-week [3][56].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.275 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 214 million yuan, a decrease of 36.2% [1] - The apparel business continues to grow rapidly, with significant sales increases across various product categories, particularly in accessories, which saw a revenue increase of 59.4% [2] - Inventory factors are impacting the company's short-term profitability and operational efficiency, with inventory turnover days increasing to approximately 81 days [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its brand strategy and overseas supply chain, particularly in non-American markets like Europe and Southeast Asia [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 predict net profits of 331 million, 451 million, and 611 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.9X, 18.3X, and 13.5X [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 10.275 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 56.5% year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 214 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 36.2% [8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 43.8%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous year [3] Business Segments - Revenue from apparel and accessories reached 7.447 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 59.4% [2] - The top five brands contributed significantly to revenue, accounting for approximately 59% of total sales [2] Operational Insights - The company faced challenges with inventory management, leading to an increase in inventory turnover days to about 81 days [3] - The company reported a negative cash flow from operating activities of -469 million yuan in 2024 [9] Future Outlook - The company plans to deepen its brand strategy and expand into non-American markets, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia [4] - The establishment of a factory in Vietnam is expected to enhance the company's overseas supply chain capabilities [4]