Core Conclusions - In a bull market, the style is relatively stable in the early and late stages, but it tends to fluctuate in the mid-stage. Non-mainstream sectors may lead in the later stages of the bull market, influenced significantly by capital flow rather than performance realization, typically lasting 1-2 quarters [2][10][28] Historical Cases - During the 2005-2007 financial cycle bull market, from January to May 2007, small-cap growth stocks surged, with non-mainstream sectors like textiles, environmental protection, and pharmaceuticals leading the gains. This was attributed to accelerated capital inflow and a shift in market focus towards previously underperforming sectors [3][11][14] - In the 2013-2015 TMT bull market, the fourth quarter of 2014 saw large-cap value stocks outperform, with non-bank financials, construction, banking, and steel sectors leading. This shift was driven by significant inflows of retail capital and a change in focus from performance to valuation [19][21][27] Market Dynamics - Non-mainstream sectors tend to lead in the later stages of a bull market due to increased capital inflow, as mainstream sectors often reach high valuation levels, leading investors to seek undervalued sectors with high safety margins [3][28] - The performance of non-mainstream sectors may be supported by earnings growth, as seen in the textiles sector in early 2007, but there can also be instances where performance realization remains weak despite leading gains, such as in the construction and steel sectors in late 2014 [30][28] Current Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market may be entering a main upward trend, with potential for style switching towards low-value sectors, particularly in banking and non-bank financials, as well as in low-valued electric equipment and cyclical stocks [37][38] - The financial sector is highlighted as having low overall valuations, with potential for rebound due to style switching and regulatory support for long-term capital inflows [39]

9 月城投债净偿还同比收窄 新增 35 家主体声明市场化 —— 2025 年 9 月城投债发行审批月度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 | [李一爽 Table_FirstA 固定uthor 收益]首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com | | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524080002 | | 联系电话：+86 15850662789 | | 邮 箱：zhujinbao@cindasc.com | Xyue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T债券able_ReportType] 专题 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编 ...

[Table_ReportDat] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业Tabl点评报告 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 电力设备与新能源 投资评级 看好 行业点评：英伟达发布 800VDC 架构白皮书，提效催生多增量赛道 [Table_Industry] 电力设备与新能源 上次评级 看好 胡琎心 电新行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525080001 联系电话：010-83326711 邮 箱：hujinxin@cindasc.com 姚云峰 电力设备与新能源行业联系人 联系电话：18840829584 邮 箱：yaoyunfeng@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [英伟达发布 Table_Title800VDC ] 架构白皮书，提效催生多增量赛道 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 本期核心观点 [Tale_Sum 事件：10 月 13 日，英伟达正式发布《800 ...

IMO 投票决定净零排放框架讨论推迟至 2026 年 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮箱：guoxue@cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] IMO 投票决定净零排放框架讨论推迟至 2026 年 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 投资评级 看好 2025 年 10 月 19 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 化工行业： [Table_Summary] [T ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 重视港股新消费估值切换，稳健布局传统龙头 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 重视港股新消费估值切换，稳健布局传统龙 头 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 陆亚宁 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030003 邮箱：luyaning@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 造纸：ummar文化纸企稳，静待旺季到来。 y] ] UPM 宣布其乌拉圭 Fray ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent release of mechanism electricity prices for new projects in Xinjiang and Gansu, with solar power priced at 0.235 yuan/kWh and wind power at 0.252 yuan/kWh [4] - The report indicates that the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment following multiple rounds of supply-demand tensions in the electricity market [4] - The ongoing market reforms in electricity pricing are anticipated to lead to a gradual increase in electricity prices, benefiting power operators [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 17, the utility sector declined by 0.7%, outperforming the broader market, which saw a 2.2% drop [11] - The electricity sector specifically saw a decrease of 0.66%, while the gas sector fell by 0.99% [13] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) increased by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 740 yuan/ton as of October 17 [20] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 960,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 5.45 million tons [25] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces was 3.107 million tons, down 312,000 tons/day from the previous week [28] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,013 yuan/ton, down 20.19% year-on-year and 0.32% week-on-week [51] - The EU's natural gas supply increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reaching 6.07 billion cubic meters in week 41 of 2025 [58] Key Industry News - The mechanism electricity prices for solar and wind projects in Xinjiang were announced, with a total of 67 projects selected [4] - The release of the "Regulations on Fair and Open Supervision of Oil and Gas Pipeline Facilities" marks a significant step in China's oil and gas market reform [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national coal power leaders such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [4] - For natural gas, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions [4]

双焦价格持续偏强，吨钢利润短期承压 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 18 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [双焦价格持续偏强，吨钢利润短期承压 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 18 日 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披 ...

请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 3Y 以内普信债与 3-5Y 二永债利差继续压缩 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251018 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 10 月 18 日 33Y 以内普信债与 3-5Y 二永债利差继续压缩 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 18 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 利率震荡信用债继续修复，1Y 中低等级及 3Y 中高等级利差显著压缩。本周 利率债维持震荡格局，1Y、3Y、5Y 和 7Y 期国开债收益率较上周分别上行 1BP、 2BP、1BP 和 2BP，10Y 期国开债收益率下行 1BP。信用债收益率多数下行，信 用利差显著收敛。1Y 期 AA+级及以上信用债收益率下行 1-2BP，其余等级下 行 4-5BP；3Y 期 AA+及以上等级信用债收益率下行 2-3BP， ...

- The report introduces the **Cinda-VIX volatility index**, which reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market. The index is based on methodologies from international practices and adjusted for the characteristics of China's options market. It includes a term structure to capture volatility expectations across different time horizons. As of October 17, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for major indices are: 22.97 for SSE 50, 24.07 for CSI 300, 35.47 for CSI 500, and 30.70 for CSI 1000[61][62][63] - The report also discusses the **Cinda-SKEW index**, which measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices of options. This index helps investors understand market expectations regarding the distribution of future returns and potential tail risks. Higher SKEW values indicate increased concerns about significant market downturns. As of October 17, 2025, the SKEW values for major indices are: 103.13 for SSE 50, 102.83 for CSI 300, 99.44 for CSI 500, and 99.76 for CSI 1000[68][72][74] - The report evaluates **four futures hedging strategies** based on CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices. These strategies include "continuous monthly hedging," "continuous quarterly hedging," and "minimum discount hedging." The strategies are tested over the period from July 22, 2022, to October 17, 2025. Key metrics such as annualized return, volatility, maximum drawdown, net value, annual turnover, and year-to-date returns are analyzed for each strategy. For example, the minimum discount strategy for CSI 500 futures achieved an annualized return of -1.54%, a volatility of 4.60%, and a maximum drawdown of -7.97%[44][47][46] - The **annualized basis adjustment model** is introduced to account for the impact of dividend expectations on futures basis. The formula used is: $ Annualized\ Basis = (Actual\ Basis + (Expected\ Dividend\ Points))/Index\ Price \times 360/Days\ to\ Maturity $ This adjustment ensures that the basis reflects the dividend impact during the contract's lifetime[19][20][21] - The report provides **dividend point forecasts** for the next year for major indices: CSI 500 (81.96), CSI 300 (83.80), SSE 50 (68.34), and CSI 1000 (62.81). Additionally, the dividend points for specific contracts are estimated, such as 2.16 for IC2511, 3.95 for IF2511, 4.91 for IH2511, and 1.19 for IM2511[9][11][15][17] - The **performance of the hedging strategies** for each index is detailed. For example, the minimum discount strategy for CSI 300 futures achieved an annualized return of 1.23%, a volatility of 3.07%, and a maximum drawdown of -4.06%. For SSE 50 futures, the minimum discount strategy achieved an annualized return of 1.73%, a volatility of 3.05%, and a maximum drawdown of -3.91%. For CSI 1000 futures, the minimum discount strategy achieved an annualized return of -4.17%, a volatility of 5.55%, and a maximum drawdown of -11.11%[52][56][58]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with domestic airlines focusing on low growth in capacity while increasing investment in international routes. The supply remains tight with a net fleet growth rate below 3%. The passenger load factor has improved year-on-year and compared to the same period in 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to 2019 levels. Ticket prices have turned positive during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with demand remaining robust. The fourth quarter is expected to see improvements in year-on-year comparisons due to a low base from the previous year, which will support the recovery of unit revenue for airlines [12][13][36]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines due to the expected recovery in unit revenue and profitability [13][36]. Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices - The passenger load factor remains high, with the industry achieving a load factor of 87.5% in August 2025, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points compared to 2019. Domestic turnover increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while international and regional routes have recovered to 100.4% of 2019 levels [15][19]. - Ticket prices have shown a positive trend, with the average domestic ticket price reaching 942 RMB during the National Day holiday, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of only 1.5%. The average ticket price for early October 2025 was up 2.2% year-on-year [4][23]. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average aviation fuel price in October 2025 was 5572 RMB per ton, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year. The Brent crude oil price has also decreased, with an average of 64.25 USD per barrel in October, down 16.7% year-on-year. The Chinese Yuan has appreciated against the US Dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.0968 RMB per USD as of October 16, 2025 [5][36][40]. Airline Operations and Fleet Growth - Airlines have continued to invest in international capacity, with domestic and international passenger load factors remaining high. In September 2025, the domestic load factor for major airlines showed significant year-on-year increases, with China Eastern Airlines leading with a 3.4 percentage point increase compared to 2019 [41][44]. - In terms of fleet growth, Air China had the highest net increase in aircraft in September 2025, adding 5 aircraft, while other airlines also showed modest growth [6][41].