刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：需求淡季 与成本支撑偏弱，化工品价格价差下行 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 12 月 12 日当周，国内重点大 炼化项目价差为 2527.61 元/吨，环比变化+22.27 元/吨（+0.89%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1330.98 元/吨，环比变化-6.23 元/吨（- 0.47%）。截至 12 月 12 日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the A - share market showed a significant differentiation pattern. The performance of broad - based indices was diverse, with the BeiZheng 50 and ChiNext Index leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 had slight pullbacks, and the CSI Dividend and China Securities Value Index had relatively large pullbacks. At the industry level, the communication sector was strong, while traditional energy and real - estate industrial chain - related sectors were under pressure. The margin trading balance reached a phased high on Wednesday and then declined, with the latest level on Thursday at 25079.82 billion yuan. [3][11] - Active equity funds' stock positions continued the downward trend, with the position of allocation - type funds falling back to the level around the end of July. In terms of industry allocation, in the short - term, the change in the allocation structure was relatively limited. From a medium - term perspective, the positions in the electronics and new energy industries continued to rise, and the exposure level of active equity funds to the large - cap growth style further increased. [3][11] - In the ETF market, A500 and Hong Kong - stock technology - related indices continued to receive net capital inflows, while indices such as the ChiNext Index, securities firms, CSI Bank, and convertible bonds had varying degrees of net capital outflows. [3][11] - In the context of a marginal increase in risk aversion, it is recommended to focus on structural allocation, moderately pay attention to sectors with mid - term prosperity advantages, maintain a relatively balanced allocation at the index level, and control the overall position. [3][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: The A - share broad - based indices showed a differentiated trend this week. The BeiZheng 50 and ChiNext Index led the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI Dividend, and China Securities Value Index had pullbacks. As of December 12, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.35 points, with a weekly change of about - 0.34%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13258.33 points, with a weekly change of about 0.84%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3194.36 points, with a weekly change of about 2.74%; and the CSI 300 closed at 4580.95 points, with a weekly change of about - 0.08%. [11][12] - **Industry Index Performance**: The performance of primary industries was also significantly differentiated. The communication sector led the gains, while coal and petroleum and petrochemical sectors had relatively large declines. The top - performing industries in terms of weekly change were communication (5.92%), national defense and military industry (3.57%), electronics (2.51%), power equipment and new energy (1.34%), and machinery (1.33%); the bottom - performing industries were coal (- 3.80%), petroleum and petrochemical (- 3.43%), textile and clothing (- 2.68%), real estate (- 2.62%), and steel (- 2.53%). [14] 3.2 Public Funds - **Public Fund Position Calculation**: Active equity funds' stock positions continued to decline, with the position of allocation - type funds falling back to the level at the end of July. As of December 12, 2025, the average position of active equity funds was about 88.41%. Among them, the average position of ordinary stock - type funds was about 91.71% (up 0.10 pct from last week), the average position of partial - stock hybrid funds was about 89.72% (down 0.05 pct from last week), the average position of allocation - type funds was about 85.03% (down 0.49 pct from last week), and the average position of "fixed - income +" funds was about 23.33% (up 0.03 pct from last week). [2][21] - **Style Trends of Active Equity Products**: The exposure to the large - cap growth style has significantly increased compared to three months ago, with little change this week. As of December 12, 2025, the large - cap growth position of active partial - stock funds was 42.77% (down 0.12 pct from last week), the large - cap value position was 6.61% (down 0.23 pct from last week), the mid - cap growth position was 7.67% (up 0.09 pct from last week), the mid - cap value position was 7.44% (up 1.43 pct from last week), the small - cap growth position was 26.82% (down 0.86 pct from last week), and the small - cap value position was 8.69% (down 0.31 pct from last week). [3][29] - **Industry Trends of Active Equity Products**: In the past three months, the positions in electronics and new energy have significantly increased, while the positions in medicine and banking have decreased. This week, the industries with relatively large increases in the allocation ratio of active equity funds were petroleum and petrochemical (about 0.92%, up 0.11 pct from last week), electronics (about 20.79%, up 0.11 pct from last week), real estate (about 0.63%, up 0.09 pct from last week), building materials (about 0.93%, up 0.08 pct from last week), and power equipment and new energy (about 8.57%, up 0.07 pct from last week). The industries with relatively large decreases in the allocation ratio were computer (about 4.51%, down 0.20 pct from last week), steel (about 1.12%, down 0.08 pct from last week), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (about 1.78%, down 0.08 pct from last week), transportation (about 1.21%, down 0.06 pct from last week), and medicine (about 10.20%, down 0.05 pct from last week). [3][32] - **ETF Market Tracking**: This week, equity indices with a net inflow of over 1 billion yuan included A500, Hang Seng Technology, Science and Technology Innovation 50, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology. Indices with a net outflow of over 1 billion yuan included the ChiNext Index, securities companies, CSI Bank, and CS Artificial Intelligence. The total net outflow of domestic stock - index ETF funds was about 9.893 billion yuan, with a total scale of 36740.46 billion yuan; the total net inflow of overseas index ETFs was about 10.139 billion yuan, with a total scale of 9385.21 billion yuan; the total net inflow of bond - index ETFs was about 2.954 billion yuan, with a total scale of 7208.3 billion yuan; and the total net inflow of commodity - index ETFs was about 0.121 billion yuan, with a total scale of 2435.63 billion yuan. [34] - **Newly Established Funds**: This week, there were 27 newly established domestic funds, including 3 active equity funds. The total newly - issued share of active equity funds was about 2.152 billion shares, which was at the 50% quantile in the past year. Since the beginning of this year, 312 active equity funds have been newly issued, with a total scale of about 156.326 billion yuan, exceeding the levels of last year and 2023. 574 passive equity funds have been newly issued, with a total scale of about 307.153 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the levels of previous years. [40] 3.3 Main/Active Capital Flows - Active funds had a net inflow into electronics and communication. The main funds had a net outflow from electronics, computer, and basic chemicals this week. In terms of individual stocks, stocks with main - fund net inflow and small - and medium - sized order net outflow included Dongshan Precision, Shenghong Technology, BYD, Lingyizao, and Xiangnong Core Creation; stocks with main - fund net outflow and small - and medium - sized order net inflow included ZTE, Sungrow Power Supply, Tianfu Communication, Industrial Fulin, and Aerospace Development. In terms of industries, industries with main - fund net inflow and small - and medium - sized order net outflow were not specified; industries with main - fund net outflow and small - and medium - sized order net inflow included electronics, computer, basic chemicals, communication, and medicine. The net main - buying amount this week was about - 280.694 billion yuan, and active funds had a net inflow into electronics and communication. Active funds were more optimistic about stocks such as New E - Sheng, Dongshan Precision, Ping An of China, Shenghong Technology, and Changxinbochuang, while stocks such as China Merchants Bank, Kweichow Moutai, ZTE, Yonghui Superstores, and Industrial Fulin were net - sold by active funds. The industries with the highest net main - buying amounts were electronics and communication; the industries with relatively large outflows were medicine, basic chemicals, computer, machinery, and non - ferrous metals. [5][50]

云南顶格提升容量电价，"中国管道天然气现货价格"正式发布 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 化工行业： 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 云南顶格提升容量电价，"中国管道天然气现货价 格"正式发布 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 14 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披 ...

11 月乘用车零售销量同比降 8%，中央定调 2026 年优化"两 新"政策实施 [Table_Industry] 汽车周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 2 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业周报e_ReportType] | 1、 板块市场表现：本周 A 股汽车板块跑赢大盘 4 | | --- | | 2、 行业重点新闻 7 | | 3、 上游重点数据跟踪 9 | | 4、 风险因素 10 | | [Table_StockAndRank] 汽车 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 赵启政 汽车行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030004 邮箱：zhaoqizheng@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资要点： 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The green liquid fuel market, particularly green ammonia and green methanol, is gaining traction due to supportive policies and market demand. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other agencies, has emphasized the development of these fuels as part of the clean energy transition [18][19]. - As of the end of 2024, there are 119 green ammonia projects and 165 green methanol projects in China, with respective production capacities of 20.17 million tons/year and 52.57 million tons/year. Most projects are in early stages, indicating potential for capacity release [22][28]. - The report highlights the significant role of green ammonia in the energy system, particularly in coal power plant modifications, with a target of 10% co-firing by 2024 [19]. - The report suggests that the environmental sector will maintain high growth due to increasing demands for energy efficiency and resource recycling, with a focus on water and waste incineration sectors as stable revenue generators [53]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The environmental sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.61% as of December 12, 2025, compared to a 0.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10][13]. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies include a notification from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the People's Bank of China to support green factory construction through green finance [33]. - The ecological environment ministry is seeking public opinion on emergency control standards for water pollution, aiming to enhance environmental emergency response capabilities [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market reforms and stable cash flows [53].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a direct investment rating for the industry but emphasizes a positive outlook on green finance initiatives and ESG investments [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of green finance supply by two departments, focusing on three key support directions: technological breakthroughs and industrial applications, enterprise green transformation, and zero-carbon factory construction [3][12]. - By 2030, the goal is to increase the output value of green factories at national, provincial, and municipal levels to 40% [3][12]. - The report indicates a significant growth in ESG bonds, with a total issuance of 3,832 bonds and a stock scale of 5.72 trillion RMB, where green bonds account for 62.15% [5][29]. - The ESG public fund market consists of 944 products with a total net value of 11,645.22 billion RMB, with ESG strategy products making up 45.09% [5][35]. - The report notes that 95% of business leaders view climate transition as a source of growth and opportunity, indicating a shift in perspective towards sustainability [21][22]. Summary by Sections Domestic Focus - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the People's Bank of China have issued a notice to enhance green finance support, targeting three main project categories [3][12]. - The report outlines the implementation of a carbon footprint factor database by 2027, aiming to improve data quality and international influence [13]. - Hubei Province has completed the first compliance of multiple industries under the national carbon market, marking a significant local practice for the market's operation [14]. International Focus - The World Bank's report on Mauritania highlights the country's economic challenges and the need for diversification beyond the mining sector, which currently contributes 70% of exports and one-fifth of GDP [4][18]. - The ISSB has made targeted revisions to the IFRS S2 to support the implementation of climate-related disclosures [19]. - Munich Re has set new climate targets for its insurance and investment portfolios, emphasizing a commitment to climate solutions [20]. ESG Financial Products Tracking - The report provides detailed statistics on ESG bonds, public funds, and bank wealth management products, indicating a robust market presence and growth potential [5][29][40]. - The issuance of ESG bonds in the past year totaled 1,231 bonds with a total amount of 13,668 billion RMB [5][29]. Index Tracking - As of December 12, 2025, major ESG indices have shown varied performance, with the Shenzhen ESG 300 index having the highest increase of 14.75% over the past year [7][41]. Expert Opinions - Experts emphasize the integration of technology and finance to build a resilient and efficient sustainable development paradigm, highlighting China's advantages in climate technology [8][42].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Dividend Forecast and Basis Adjustment Model - **Model Name**: Dividend Forecast and Basis Adjustment Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the dividend points of the underlying index of stock index futures during the contract period and adjusts the basis accordingly. - **Model Construction Process**: - Predict the dividend points of the underlying index for the next year. For example, the predicted dividend points for the CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 84.93, 90.40, 75.15, and 63.87, respectively[9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. - Calculate the basis as the difference between the futures contract closing price and the underlying index closing price. - Adjust the basis by adding the expected dividends during the contract period to the actual basis. - Annualize the adjusted basis using the formula: $$ \text{Annualized Basis} = \frac{\text{Actual Basis} + \text{Expected Dividend Points}}{\text{Index Price}} \times \frac{360}{\text{Remaining Days of the Contract}} $$ - Example: The annualized basis for the IC current season contract adjusted for dividends is -8.64%[19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively adjusts the basis to account for dividends, providing a more accurate measure of the futures contract's value relative to the underlying index. Model 2: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Name**: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy aims to hedge the basis risk by continuously holding futures contracts and adjusting positions based on the contract's expiration. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtest Parameters and Settings**: - Backtest period: July 22, 2022, to December 12, 2025[43][44][45]. - Spot end: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index. - Futures end: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and the same nominal principal amount for the futures end, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. - Rebalance rule: Continuously hold the current month/season contract until the contract has less than 2 days to expiration, then close the position at the closing price and short the next season/current month contract at the closing price. - **Performance**: - Annualized return: -3.41% (current month), -2.42% (season), -1.94% (minimum basis strategy)[46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. - Volatility: 3.80% (current month), 4.70% (season), 4.51% (minimum basis strategy). - Maximum drawdown: -11.20% (current month), -8.34% (season), -8.70% (minimum basis strategy). - Net value: 0.8893 (current month), 0.9205 (season), 0.9360 (minimum basis strategy). - **Model Evaluation**: The continuous hedging strategy provides a systematic approach to managing basis risk, though it may result in negative returns under certain market conditions. Model Backtest Results - **Dividend Forecast and Basis Adjustment Model**: - CSI 500: Annualized basis -8.64%[20] - CSI 300: Annualized basis -3.44%[27] - SSE 50: Annualized basis -0.70%[32] - CSI 1000: Annualized basis -12.38%[38] - **Continuous Hedging Strategy**: - CSI 500: Annualized return -3.41% (current month), -2.42% (season), -1.94% (minimum basis strategy)[46] - CSI 300: Annualized return 0.36% (current month), 0.70% (season), 1.08% (minimum basis strategy)[52] - SSE 50: Annualized return 1.08% (current month), 2.02% (season), 1.68% (minimum basis strategy)[56] - CSI 1000: Annualized return -6.43% (current month), -4.70% (season), -4.38% (minimum basis strategy)[58] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Name**: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset based on option prices. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied volatility of options with different maturities. - Aggregate the implied volatilities to form the VIX index for different indices. - Example: As of December 12, 2025, the 30-day VIX for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 15.93, 17.03, 22.82, and 20.49, respectively[61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The Cinda-VIX index provides valuable insights into market sentiment and expected volatility, aiding in risk management and trading decisions. Factor 2: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Name**: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, indicating market expectations of tail risk. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied volatility for options with different strike prices. - Measure the skewness of the implied volatilities to form the SKEW index. - Example: As of December 12, 2025, the SKEW for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 101.80, 108.04, 104.65, and 108.10, respectively[68][69][70][71][72][73]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The Cinda-SKEW index captures market concerns about tail risks, providing a useful tool for assessing potential market stress and investor sentiment. Factor Backtest Results - **Cinda-VIX**: - SSE 50: 15.93[61] - CSI 300: 17.03[61] - CSI 500: 22.82[61] - CSI 1000: 20.49[61] - **Cinda-SKEW**: - SSE 50: 101.80[68] - CSI 300: 108.04[68] - CSI 500: 104.65[68] - CSI 1000: 108.10[68]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the upstream oil price is expected to bottom out in 2026, with a shift from a clear surplus to marginal tightening in the oil market, while still remaining in a loose environment. The average oil price for 2026 is projected to fluctuate between $55 and $65 per barrel, influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks and OPEC+ market stabilization actions [3][40][43] - The demand for global crude oil is expected to grow at a rate of approximately 80,000 to 100,000 barrels per day in 2026, with the growth primarily driven by developing economies, while demand in developed regions like North America and Europe is nearing its peak [38][39] - The refining supply structure is undergoing optimization, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity and enhancing the quality of production. The report highlights that the domestic refining capacity is projected to reach 1 billion tons by 2025, with a significant portion of this capacity being concentrated in large-scale refineries [46][51][62] Group 2 - The report recommends investment in private refining enterprises with scale advantages and a long chemical industry chain, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as polyester filament leaders like Tongkun Co. and Xin Fengming [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of the chemical oil demand, which is expected to continue its long-term growth trajectory, with the share of chemical oil consumption in total oil consumption projected to rise to 50% by 2026 [62][64] - The report notes that the refining industry is likely to enter a period of stock competition, with a significant amount of outdated refining capacity facing potential elimination, particularly among smaller refineries [51][54][59]

Economic Assessment - The meeting emphasized the deepening impact of external environmental changes and the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand domestically[6] - The overall policy strength for next year is expected to be no lower than this year[2] - However, a strong stimulus is not anticipated despite the policy strength being maintained[3] Fiscal Policy Insights - Fiscal policy is projected to remain consistent with this year, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to stay at 4%[8] - General government debt is anticipated to increase slightly by 0.3 trillion to a range of 5.9-6 trillion[8] Monetary Policy Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a similar stance as this year, with a forecasted interest rate cut of 10 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[11] - The focus will remain on maintaining reasonable liquidity while promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[11] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand continues to be the top priority, with a focus on stabilizing investment and consumption[12] - Infrastructure investment is expected to see a peak, contributing to overall investment stabilization[13] Real Estate Policy Changes - New measures in real estate policy include encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing[14] - The urbanization rate has slowed, with only a 0.84 percentage point increase expected in 2024, indicating a potential decline in real housing demand[14] Stock Market Projections - A slow bull market is anticipated for A-shares in 2026, with limited support for a rapid bull market[20] - The market outlook is influenced by policy, liquidity, and fundamental factors, with a focus on cyclical and technology sectors driving performance[20] Risk Factors - Key risks include sudden geopolitical tensions abroad and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[22]

Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, with structural optimization and marginal profit improvement. Supply side: total contraction and structural differentiation, with capital expenditure continuing to show weak growth. The steel industry's capital expenditure has been slowing for four consecutive years, entering negative growth in 2025 due to multiple factors including "anti-involution" policies, a downturn in the real estate sector, and limited infrastructure support [2][10] - The domestic crude steel consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.4% year-on-year decline in demand from January to October 2025, amounting to 710 million tons. The demand in traditional steel usage areas remains weak, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [2][32] - Exports have become a crucial support for the steel industry, with steel exports reaching 97.74 million tons from January to October 2025, a 6.4% increase year-on-year. The total annual export volume is expected to exceed 110 million tons, effectively offsetting the pressure from declining domestic demand [2][48] Group 1: Marginal Improvement in the Steel Industry - The average steel price has continued to decline, with the comprehensive price index for ordinary steel dropping to 3,447 yuan/ton as of November 24, 2025, down approximately 200 yuan from the year's peak [10][60] - The profit margin of the steel industry has shown significant improvement, with the gross profit margin reaching 6.4% in Q3 2025, marking a recovery from the low levels seen since 2022 [13][15] - The proportion of loss-making enterprises in the steel industry has slightly decreased but remains high at 37.18%, indicating ongoing challenges within the industry [17] Group 2: PPI Turnaround Expectations - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the steel industry is expected to turn positive by Q2 2026, driven by improvements in supply structure and demand dynamics [53][60] - Historical data shows that the steel industry plays a significant role in PPI fluctuations, with past PPI turnarounds in 2016 and 2021 coinciding with significant steel industry performance [54][60] - The steel industry accounts for approximately 5.9% of the PPI, making its price movements critical for overall industrial price trends [53][54] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-efficiency, low-emission regional leading enterprises such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel, as well as companies with strong growth potential like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [4][60] - The steel sector is viewed as having strong "anti-involution" attributes and significant profit recovery potential, making it a strategic investment opportunity for the medium to long term [4][60] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small and medium-sized steel companies, particularly those with strong earnings growth and valuation appeal [4][60]