结构性行情中剩余期限 2 年以内转债性价比提升 —— 6 月转债投资策略与关注个券 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 06 月 02 日 [李一爽 Table_ First固定Author 收益]首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 张 弛 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524090002 联系电话：+86 18817872149 邮 箱：zhangchi3@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [T债券able_ReportType] 专题 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com 张 弛 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524090002 联系电话：+86 18817872149 邮 箱：zhangchi3@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 重视需求旺季的规律性，把握板块底部配置 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 6 月 2 日 [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 左前明：能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 重视需求旺季的规律性，把握板块底部配置 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 2 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http: ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the utility sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a projected 2.4% year-on-year growth in global LNG trade volume for 2024, reaching 411.24 million tons, connecting 22 export markets and 48 import markets [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing market reforms in the electricity sector, which are expected to lead to improved profitability and value reassessment for power companies [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 30, the utility sector declined by 0.2%, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.1% [12]. - The electricity sector specifically saw a decrease of 0.15%, while the gas sector fell by 0.44% [15]. Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the Qinhuangdao port's coal price (Q5500) remained stable at 613 CNY/ton as of May 30, while the coal inventory at the port decreased by 550,000 tons to 6.75 million tons [23][30]. - The average daily coal consumption in inland provinces dropped by 357,000 tons to 2.806 million tons, with available days increasing to 29.8 days [32]. Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The report indicates that the LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,419 CNY/ton as of May 30, reflecting a 1.01% year-on-year increase but a 1.12% week-on-week decrease [58]. - The report also highlights that the EU's natural gas supply for week 21 of 2025 was 5.82 billion cubic meters, a 3.1% year-on-year increase [61]. Key Industry News - The report discusses the release of the "136 Document" by the Inner Mongolia Development and Reform Commission, which outlines a market-driven pricing mechanism for renewable energy [5]. - The report mentions that the EU's natural gas consumption for the first 20 weeks of 2025 is estimated at 158.81 billion cubic meters, a 9.2% year-on-year increase [5]. Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, the report suggests focusing on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [5]. - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are recommended for potential profit growth [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The demand for new energy sanitation vehicles is strong, with a significant increase in sales and a shift towards electric vehicles in the sanitation sector. The market for sanitation vehicles saw a year-on-year sales increase of 3.5%, with new energy sanitation vehicles experiencing a remarkable growth of 64% in Q1 2025, achieving a penetration rate of 15% [12][13] - The report highlights the acceleration of smart sanitation equipment promotion driven by policy support, particularly the encouragement of intelligent and unmanned sanitation vehicles [13][14] Market Performance - As of May 30, the environmental protection sector rose by 3.42%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like solid waste sanitation increasing by 19.04% [4][6] - The water governance sector increased by 2.32%, while the air governance sector saw a slight decline of 0.29% [6] Industry Dynamics - Recent policies from the central government aim to enhance the market-oriented allocation of environmental resources, with a focus on carbon trading and pollution rights by 2027 [22][23] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a technical guidance catalog for pollution prevention, detailing 15 encouraged technologies to promote advancements in ecological facilities [23] Company Developments - Yingfeng Environment has diversified its "Bee" robot product line, achieving significant operational efficiency and commercial success, with a revenue increase of 14.41% in its smart service segment [14] - Qiaoyin Co. is collaborating with a national innovation center to advance humanoid robot technology for urban services [15] - Yutong Heavy Industry has developed L4 level autonomous sanitation vehicles, currently operating in Guangzhou, marking a significant milestone in the industry [17] - Yuhua Tian is expanding its product offerings in the field of smart sanitation, including aerial inspection drones and unmanned garbage compression vehicles [18] - Fulongma is actively exploring unmanned sanitation operations, with its SD15 autonomous cleaning robot deployed in various scenarios [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the environmental quality and industrial green development goals set by the "14th Five-Year Plan" will sustain high demand for energy conservation and resource recycling [30] - Key recommendations include companies like Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The demand for new energy sanitation vehicles is strong, with a significant increase in sales and a shift towards electric sanitation vehicles, indicating a structural recovery in the market [12][13] - The report highlights the acceleration of smart sanitation equipment promotion driven by policy support, with major companies making significant advancements in technology and product deployment [14][17][21] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 30, the environmental protection sector rose by 3.42%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like solid waste sanitation increasing by 19.04% [4][6] Industry Dynamics - Recent policies from the central government aim to enhance the market-oriented allocation of environmental resources, with a focus on carbon trading and pollution control measures by 2027 [22][23] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a technical guidance catalog for pollution prevention, detailing encouraged and low-efficiency technologies [23] Company Announcements - Major companies in the sanitation sector are advancing their smart sanitation initiatives, with notable products like the "Bee" series robots from Yingfeng Environment achieving significant operational efficiency and commercial success [14] - Qiaoyin Co. is collaborating with national centers to innovate in humanoid robotics for sanitation, enhancing their product offerings [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the environmental quality and industrial green development goals set by the "14th Five-Year Plan" will sustain high demand for energy-saving and recycling industries, with specific recommendations for companies like Hanlan Environment and Xingrong Environment [30]

- The macro model uses indicators such as "10-year US Treasury yield," "domestic M2 year-on-year growth," and "domestic M1-M2 scissors difference" to predict excess returns of the CSI Dividend Index relative to Wind All A Index. The model has achieved an annualized excess return of 8.05% since 2010, but the excess return for this year is -6.69%[8][10][46] - The valuation model employs a weighted factor adjustment for the CSI Dividend Index's PETTM valuation to align with its dividend yield-weighted characteristics. The absolute PETTM valuation regression formula is $ y = -0.2807x + 0.2635 $, where $ x $ represents the three-year absolute PETTM percentile, and $ y $ represents the future one-year absolute return. The relative PETTM valuation regression formula is $ y = -0.1223x + 0.0983 $, where $ x $ represents the three-year relative PETTM percentile, and $ y $ represents the future one-year excess return[18][21][30] - The price-volume model calculates the weight of CSI Dividend Index constituents above the 120-day moving average and their correlation with future one-year absolute returns. The regression formula is $ y = -0.2346x + 0.2116 $, where $ x $ represents the weight above the 120-day moving average, and $ y $ represents the future one-year absolute return. For absolute trading volume, the regression formula is $ y = -0.3823x + 0.3435 $, where $ x $ represents the three-year trading volume percentile, and $ y $ represents the future one-year absolute return. For relative trading volume, the regression formula is $ y = -0.0163x + 0.0092 $, where $ x $ represents the three-year relative trading volume percentile, and $ y $ represents the future one-month excess return[24][31][33] - The fund exposure model standardizes quarterly dividend yield factors and calculates the dividend style exposure of equity-focused public funds based on their top 10 holdings. The model shows that the dividend style exposure for Q1 2025 is 0.37, a decrease from 0.45 in Q4 2024[37][38][46] - The "Dividend 50 Optimal Portfolio" combines high dividend yield with a linear multi-factor model to enhance capital gains. It applies Barra style factor constraints to control portfolio style exposure and incorporates a three-dimensional dividend excess timing model for further optimization. The portfolio's absolute return over the past year is 5.69%, with an excess return of 3.72%[46][47][48] Model Testing Results - Macro model: Annualized excess return since 2010 is 8.05%; excess return for this year is -6.69%[8][10][46] - Valuation model: Absolute PETTM regression predicts future one-year absolute return of -1.42%; relative PETTM regression predicts future one-year excess return of 0.00%[18][21][30] - Price-volume model: Weight above 120-day moving average regression predicts future one-year absolute return of 7.35%; absolute trading volume regression predicts future one-year absolute return of 13.78%; relative trading volume regression predicts future one-month excess return of 0.80%[24][31][33] - Fund exposure model: Dividend style exposure for Q1 2025 is 0.37, down from 0.45 in Q4 2024[37][38][46] - Dividend 50 Optimal Portfolio: Absolute return over the past year is 5.69%; excess return is 3.72%[46][47][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank's OMO net - injected 656.6 billion yuan in liquidity, and the money market remained generally loose. Despite factors such as corporate income tax settlement and cross - month effects, DR007 stayed above 1.6%, while overnight rates continued to decline. The R001 on the cross - month day was the lowest since December last year. The OMO balance remaining high has limited indication for the money market, and the central bank may control the money price through implicit regulation of bank lending. The DR007 mean in June may fall to the range of 1.4% - 1.5% [3]. - It is expected that the net payment scale of government bonds next week will drop from 353.1 billion yuan this week to 193.2 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in June is estimated to be about 1.31 trillion yuan, slightly lower than that in May. Although there are factors such as tax payment and high reverse - repurchase maturity scale next week, the central bank's attitude to maintain the money market is clear, and the DR007 central rate may fall to the range of 1.4% - 1.5% [3][4]. - In the inter - bank certificate of deposit market, the secondary rate of AAA - rated 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.0BP to 1.705% this week. The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated and declined. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 607 billion yuan, a decrease of 50 billion yuan compared with this week [4]. - In the bill market, bill rates first rose and then fell this week. The 3 - month national - share bill rate rose by 7BP to 1.16%, while the 6 - month national - share bill rate fell by 3BP to 1.06% [4]. - In the bond trading sentiment tracking, the bond market adjusted this week, and the spreads of short - and medium - term credit and perpetual bonds widened slightly. Different types of institutions have different trends in bond trading sentiment [4]. Summary by Directory I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Money Market Review - The central bank's OMO net - injected 656.6 billion yuan in liquidity this week, and the 5 - month buy - out reverse - repurchase had a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan for the second consecutive month. The money market remained generally loose. DR007 stayed above 1.6%, and overnight rates continued to decline. The R001 on the cross - month day was 1.57%, the lowest since December last year [3][7]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase first rose to 7.16 trillion yuan on Tuesday and then declined, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.22 trillion yuan to 6.50 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase rose above 11 trillion yuan on Thursday and then seasonally declined on Friday but was still higher than last week. The net lending of various banks generally increased before the end of the month but declined before the cross - month. The net lending of large banks was significantly higher than last week, while that of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks decreased compared with last week. The rigid net lending of banks rose to 4.3 trillion yuan on Thursday and then declined but was still higher than last week. The rigid lending of non - bank institutions declined significantly compared with last week, mainly due to the large decline of money funds. The non - bank borrowing scale was higher than last week [3][15]. - The money gap index first decreased and then increased. The seasonally - adjusted index rose to - 172 on Friday, still lower than - 125 of the previous week, and the non - seasonally - adjusted index remained at a low level of - 1864 on Friday. Both were at the lowest levels for cross - month since this year. The cross - month progress of the money market in the inter - bank market accelerated this week, while that in the exchange market was always slow. Overall, the cross - month progress of institutions in May was relatively fast. Among them, other non - bank institutions in the inter - bank market had a relatively fast cross - month progress, while joint - stock banks, securities companies, and funds had a relatively slow cross - month progress [3][17]. - The high OMO balance has limited relation with the money market, and the core excess reserves excluding OMO also have limited indication for the money market. Since March, the money has continued to loosen under the condition of low excess reserves, which may reflect the central bank's implicit regulation of bank lending to control the money price. The short - term OMO balance increase is mainly to enhance the effectiveness of the central bank's regulation but has limited indication for the money price [23]. - The spread between the average DR007 in May and OMO decreased to 19BP, returning to the level of Q4 last year. Considering the central bank's priority of cost reduction, the DR007 central rate may fall to the range of 1.4% - 1.5% in June, and the normalization of monetary policy is expected to be achieved [29]. 1.2 Next Week's Money Market Outlook - It is expected that the national debt payment scale next week will be 220 billion yuan. As of this week, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 was 351 billion yuan, new special bonds was 1633.6 billion yuan, ordinary refinancing bonds was 701.1 billion yuan, and special refinancing bonds was 1629.1 billion yuan. The local bond issuance scale in 6 regions such as Hunan, Tianjin, and Henan next week is 109.6 billion yuan. The overall net payment scale of government bonds next week will drop from 353.1 billion yuan this week to 193.2 billion yuan [31]. - The net financing of government bonds in May was 1494.8 billion yuan, including 940.2 billion yuan for national debt and 554.6 billion yuan for local bonds. It is maintained that the net financing scale of national debt in June is about 750 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance speed may accelerate in June, with the monthly net financing expected to reach 560 billion yuan. Overall, it is still expected that the government bond issuance scale in June is about 2.67 trillion yuan, and the net financing is about 1.31 trillion yuan, slightly lower than that in May [36]. - The reverse - repurchase maturity scale next week will rise to 1602.6 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop from 353.1 billion yuan this week to 193.2 billion yuan, mainly concentrated on Thursday and Friday. In addition, the first half of next week is the payment period for the annual settlement of corporate income tax, and June 5th is the reserve payment day for the first ten - day period. Although there are tax payment effects on the money market in the first half of next week and the reverse - repurchase maturity scale is high, considering the central bank's active reverse - repurchase hedging during the tax period in May, its attitude to maintain the money market is clear. It is expected that the DR007 central rate may fall to the range of 1.4% - 1.5% next week [41]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1 - year Shibor rate rose by 1.6BP to 1.70%. The 1 - year joint - stock bank certificate of deposit issuance rate fell by 0.8BP to 1.70%, and the secondary rate of AAA - rated 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.0BP to 1.705% [41][42]. - The issuance scale and maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit both decreased this week, with the certificates of deposit turning to a net financing of 1.25 billion yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 140.4 billion yuan, - 89.8 billion yuan, - 4.2 billion yuan, and - 26.5 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit rose by 30 percentage points to 59%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 607 billion yuan, a decrease of 50 billion yuan compared with this week [45]. - The issuance success rates of city commercial banks and state - owned banks for certificates of deposit increased slightly compared with last week, while those of rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks decreased, but the issuance success rates of various banks were still near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [46]. - The willingness of funds, money funds, and wealth management products to increase the holding of certificates of deposit weakened this week, while the demand of other products for certificates of deposit slightly increased. Joint - stock banks tended to increase the holding of certificates of deposit. The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated and declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 percentage point to 42.8%. In terms of different maturities, the supply - demand indexes of 1 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month certificates of deposit rebounded, while those of 3 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit slightly decreased [57]. III. Bill Market This week, bill rates first rose and then fell. The 3 - month national - share bill rate rose by 7BP to 1.16%, while the 6 - month national - share bill rate fell by 3BP to 1.06% [63]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market adjusted this week, and the spreads of short - and medium - term credit and perpetual bonds widened slightly. Large banks tended to increase the holding of bonds, mainly due to the increased willingness to hold certificates of deposit and the weakened willingness to reduce the holding of national debt, local debt, commercial paper, and perpetual bonds, but they tended to reduce the holding of 1 - 3 - year policy - financial bonds [65]. - The willingness of trading - type institutions to increase the holding of bonds increased. Among them, the willingness of securities companies to reduce the holding of bonds weakened, and the willingness of other products to increase the holding of bonds increased, while the willingness of fund companies and other institutions to increase the holding of bonds decreased. The willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase the holding of bonds decreased. Among them, the willingness of rural commercial banks to reduce the holding of bonds significantly increased, while the willingness of wealth management products and insurance institutions to increase the holding of bonds increased [65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the utility sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The global LNG trade volume is expected to grow by 2.4% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 411.24 million tons, connecting 22 export markets and 48 import markets [5]. - The domestic electricity sector is anticipated to see profit improvement and value reassessment following multiple rounds of supply-demand tensions [5]. - The report highlights the importance of market-driven electricity pricing and the potential for gradual price increases in the electricity market [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 30, the utility sector declined by 0.2%, underperforming the broader market, with the electricity sector down by 0.15% and the gas sector down by 0.44% [4][12]. - Key companies in the electricity sector showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [18]. Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) remained stable at 613 CNY/ton as of May 30 [4][23]. - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port decreased to 6.75 million tons, down by 550,000 tons week-on-week [30]. - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased to 2.806 million tons, down by 357,000 tons/day, with available days increasing to 29.8 days [32]. Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,419 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.01% but a week-on-week decrease of 1.12% [58]. - The EU's natural gas supply for week 21 of 2025 was 5.82 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [5]. - Domestic natural gas consumption in April 2025 was 34.73 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [5]. Industry News - The release of the "136 Document" by Inner Mongolia's Development and Reform Commission outlines a market-driven pricing mechanism for renewable energy [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing evolution of the LNG industry to meet customer demands and adapt to global energy changes [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading coal-fired power companies and regional leaders in electricity supply, as well as water power operators and equipment manufacturers benefiting from the new coal power cycle [5]. - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while the steel industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and declining overall profits, the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies is expected to support steel demand. This includes stabilization in the real estate sector, steady infrastructure investment, and continued development in manufacturing [4][43] - The report highlights that the average iron water cost has decreased, and the profit margins for rebar steel have shown slight improvement, indicating potential for recovery in the industry [4][57] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector experienced a decline of 0.73% this week, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products also showing slight declines [3][11] - Iron ore prices increased by 0.30%, while steel consumption rose by 1.02% week-on-week [3][35] 2. Supply Data - As of May 30, the average daily iron water output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 thousand tons week-on-week, but an increase of 5.11 thousand tons year-on-year [3][26] - The capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 90.7% and 59.0%, respectively, both showing slight declines [3][26] 3. Demand Data - Total consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.138 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 9.23 thousand tons [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 102 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.71% [3][35] 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased to 9.325 million tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [3][43] - Factory inventory also saw a decline, totaling 4.331 million tons, a decrease of 1.12% week-on-week [3][43] 5. Price and Profit Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,386.7 yuan/ton, down 1.90% week-on-week, while the special steel index was 6,630.7 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [3][49] - The profit for rebar steel from blast furnaces was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% week-on-week, while electric furnace profits were negative at -357.04 yuan/ton [3][57] 6. Raw Material Prices - The price of Australian iron ore at the port was 737 yuan/ton, down 2.25% week-on-week [4][71] - The price of coking coal was 1,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton week-on-week [4][71] 7. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios for companies like Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and others [4][72]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Interest rate adjustments have led to a divergence in the performance of credit bonds, with the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds widening, while long - term credit bonds have shown strong performance. The spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with weaker platforms performing well. Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. The excess spreads of 3 - year industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds have compressed, while the spreads of 5 - year urban investment bonds have rebounded [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Adjustments Lead to Divergence in Credit Bond Performance, with Widening Spreads of Medium - and Short - Term High - Grade Bonds This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds have slightly rebounded. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 2BP, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds have increased by 1BP. The yields of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds have adjusted, while most other varieties have continued to decline. Credit spreads have mostly declined, with the largest decline in 7Y varieties, and the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade bonds have widened. Rating spreads and term spreads have mostly declined [3][6]. 3.2 Narrow Fluctuations in Urban Investment Bond Spreads, with Good Performance of Weaker Platforms This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with some differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of externally rated AAA - level platforms have increased by 1BP, those of AA + - level platforms have remained basically flat, and those of AA - level platforms have decreased by 1BP. When classified by administrative level, the spreads of provincial - level platforms have increased by 1BP, while those of municipal and district - level platforms have remained basically flat [3][10][17]. 3.3 Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decline, while Coal Bonds and Private Real Estate Bonds See an Increase in Spreads Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. This week, the spreads of central and local state - owned real estate bonds have increased by 0 - 1BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have decreased by 2BP, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 40BP. The spreads of AAA - level coal bonds have increased by 9BP, those of AA + - level bonds have remained flat, and those of AA - level coal bonds have increased by 1BP. The spreads of steel and chemical bonds at all levels have declined by 0 - 3BP [3][15]. 3.4 Yields of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds Mostly Rise, with Compressed Spreads of 5 - Year Medium - and Low - Grade Varieties This week, the yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. Specifically, the yields of 1Y AAA - and AA + commercial bank Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 4BP, and the yields of AA - level bonds have increased by 2BP, with spreads increasing by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y Tier 2 capital bonds at all levels have increased by 4 - 6BP, and the spreads have increased by 2 - 4BP. The yields of 5Y AAA - and AA + Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads have decreased by 0 - 1BP, while the yields of AA - level bonds have decreased by 1BP, and the spreads have compressed by 3BP [27][28]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of 3 - Year Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Compress, while the Spreads of 5 - Year Urban Investment Bonds Rebound This week, the excess spreads of 3 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 2.18BP to 9.53BP, at the 11.52% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 5 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have remained flat at 9.22BP, at the 10.27% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 3 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 1.12BP to 4.31BP, at the 0.37% percentile. The excess spreads of 5 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have increased by 1.37BP to 10.30BP, at the 9.54% percentile [31]. 3.6 Explanation of the Credit Spread Database Compilation The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical percentiles are calculated since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical percentiles also calculated since the beginning of 2015. Specific calculation methods and sample selection criteria are also provided [38].