资金面趋于谨慎，观望情绪浓厚 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W48） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 8 证券研究报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W48)：资金面趋于谨慎， 观望情绪浓厚 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ➢ 本周市场复盘：上证指数结束月 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of production cuts in caprolactam on pricing stability, while the price spread for nylon fibers has narrowed [2]. - Domestic key refining project price spread increased to 2425.48 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 29.04 CNY/ton (+1.21%), while international key refining project price spread decreased to 1277.36 CNY/ton, a decline of 151.77 CNY/ton (-10.62%) [3]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price was reported at 63.18 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.05% [2]. Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses the geopolitical situation regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace plan, which has led to fluctuations in international oil prices. Brent and WTI crude prices were reported at 63.20 and 58.55 USD/barrel respectively, with slight increases from the previous week [14]. - Domestic refined oil prices showed minor fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6787.00, 7603.14, and 5905.76 CNY/ton respectively [14]. Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical products market experienced a general decline in prices due to weak demand, with notable decreases in polyethylene price spreads [2]. - The report indicates that the nylon fiber price spread has narrowed significantly due to rising costs in the caprolactam market, despite being in a traditional demand off-season [2]. Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - Polyester cost remained stable, while nylon costs increased significantly, leading to a notable narrowing of the price spread for nylon fibers [2]. - The report mentions that the polyester upstream prices for PX and MEG have slightly decreased, while PTA prices have shown a slight increase [2]. Key Refining Companies Performance - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable weekly changes including Rongsheng Petrochemical (-0.92%) and Xin Fengming (+7.08%) [2].

宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 企业利润率出现不寻常的下滑 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 28 日 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 企业利润率出现不寻常的下滑。回顾历史来看，2020-2024 年，工业企业 在 1-10 月的营收利润率都较 1-9 月进一步提升。反观今年 1-10 月，工业 企业营收利润率出现了不同寻常的下滑。结合统计 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company, Aikang Medical, is a leading player in the domestic artificial joint market, benefiting from domestic centralized procurement and price increases, as well as successful international brand expansion. The orthopedic implant business is expected to maintain rapid growth. The company is also building a smart orthopedic ecosystem, with the K3 robot gradually commercializing, which is anticipated to support the strategic upgrade from a "manufacturer of implants" to a "provider of intelligent surgical solutions" [5][6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Aikang Medical is a leading enterprise in the domestic artificial joint sector, focusing on smart orthopedic surgical solutions. The company has developed a diversified business system covering hip and knee joint implants, as well as spinal and trauma implants [18][20] 2. Domestic Market Dynamics - The company is leveraging centralized procurement to increase market share and profitability. The domestic market is seeing a shift towards the replacement of imported products, with a significant increase in hospital coverage and market share. In the first half of 2025, the surgical volume in high-level hospitals increased by 33% [14][51] 3. International Market Strategy - The company employs a dual-brand strategy to capture international market growth. The "JRI" brand targets the high-end market in Europe, while the "AK" brand focuses on emerging markets, leading to a compound annual growth rate of 20.8% in overseas revenue from 2018 to 2024 [15][55] 4. Smart Solutions and Business Model - Aikang Medical is a pioneer in smart orthopedic solutions, establishing a comprehensive ecosystem for orthopedic surgery. The K3 robot is expected to enhance the company's ability to provide a new business model that integrates consumables, services, and equipment [7][17] 5. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.548 billion yuan, 1.811 billion yuan, and 2.148 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 322 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 437 million yuan [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Aladdin (688179) based on its strong potential for growth and strategic acquisitions [10]. Core Insights - The investment in Shanghai Youke is expected to enhance Aladdin's product line in laboratory instruments, allowing for bundled sales of reagents and instruments, thus creating a synergistic effect [2]. - The valuation for the stake in Shanghai Youke is considered reasonable, with a PE ratio of approximately 7.8 times and a PB ratio of about 1.8 times, indicating a solid investment opportunity [3]. - Aladdin's revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 show significant growth, with projected revenues of 6.49 billion, 8.60 billion, and 9.64 billion respectively, and net profits of 0.96 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.70 billion [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 403 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6%. This is expected to increase to 534 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 32.4% [4]. - The net profit for 2023 is 86 million, with a projected decline of 7.5% year-on-year, but is expected to recover to 99 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 15.1% [4]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 62.6% to 62.9% from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the luxury jewelry industry is "Positive" [2][3] Core Insights - The global personal luxury goods market is projected to reach €364 billion in 2024, showing a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, with the jewelry segment demonstrating strong resilience [3][22] - The luxury jewelry market is increasingly concentrated, with the top five brands holding a market share of 42.6%, indicating a strengthening of the head effect [3][25] - High-net-worth individuals contribute over 20% of sales, showcasing their strong consumption resilience and acting as a stabilizing force in the industry [3][22] - The luxury jewelry sector is characterized by high brand barriers and historical accumulation, with leading brands like Tiffany, Bulgari, Cartier, and Van Cleef & Arpels maintaining significant market influence and premium pricing [3][22] - The rise of the Z generation is driving a shift in consumer preferences towards brand culture, product design, and personalized experiences, providing a solid foundation for the growth of domestic luxury brands in China [3][22] Summary by Sections 1. Evolution of Luxury Goods - Luxury goods emerged as symbols of social stratification, transitioning from exclusive items for the elite to accessible status symbols for a broader audience [13][14] 2. Consumer Motivations for Purchasing Luxury Goods - The primary motivation for purchasing luxury jewelry is the fulfillment of spiritual needs, with social recognition and personal expression being key drivers [32][35] 3. Nature of Luxury Goods - Luxury goods serve as symbols of dreams, with rarity and uniqueness establishing their high-end positioning [3][22] 4. Brand Value Creation in Luxury Jewelry - Leading luxury jewelry brands ensure longevity through deep connections with affluent consumers, continuous innovation, and strict brand management [3][22] 5. Financial Characteristics and Valuation of Luxury Companies - The financial performance of leading luxury brands is significantly higher than that of regional jewelry companies, driven by brand equity and global channel control [3][22] 6. Potential for Domestic Luxury Jewelry Brands in China - China is positioned to nurture its own luxury jewelry brands, supported by economic growth, rising disposable incomes, and cultural confidence [3][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and growth outlook discussed in the report [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook has shown a recovery in same-store sales, with a notable increase in retail value and a positive consumer response despite high gold prices [2]. - The company has optimized its product structure, with a significant increase in the sales of priced jewelry, which has enhanced brand strength [3]. - Continuous optimization of channels and the introduction of new store formats are accelerating the brand transformation [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 H1, Chow Tai Fook reported revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 2.534 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 0.2% [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the mainland China market accounted for 82.6% of total sales, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, while sales outside mainland China increased by 6.5% [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The sales of priced jewelry in mainland China increased by 16.1%, while the sales of gold jewelry decreased by 5.8% [3]. - The launch of the high-end jewelry series "He Mei Dong Fang" has demonstrated strong demand, with nearly 200 pieces sold during the promotional event [3]. - The company has also introduced new jadeite designs and collaborated with notable brands to enhance its product offerings [3]. Operational Efficiency - Chow Tai Fook has optimized its store network, closing a net of 611 stores in FY2026 H1, resulting in a total of 5,663 stores [4]. - The gross profit margin for FY2026 H1 was 30.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower margins in retail due to gold price fluctuations [5]. - The company has successfully reduced its inventory turnover days to approximately 424 days, a decrease of about 33 days year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [5]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Chow Tai Fook for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 7.980 billion, HKD 9.110 billion, and HKD 10.296 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7X, 15.5X, and 13.7X [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds turned positive again, with 27 new bond - issuing entities mostly achieving new financing. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds was 150 million yuan, an increase of 440 million yuan compared to August but lower than 688 million yuan in the same period last year. The exchange - issued urban investment bonds shifted from net repayment to net financing of 473 million yuan, while the net repayment scale of the association further expanded to 323 million yuan. [4][8] - The proportion of borrowing new to repay old in urban investment bond issuance in October decreased slightly, and the number of new financing entities in the association was lower than that in the exchange. The proportion of borrowing new to repay old decreased by 4.3 pct to 77.2%, and the proportions of repaying interest - bearing debts, supplementing working capital, project construction, and equity investment rebounded. [26] - In October, 23 new urban investment platforms declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, and the spreads between entities inside and outside the list showed no differentiation. The spreads between market - oriented operating entities and those without such a declaration remained undifferentiated. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 10 - month Urban Investment Bonds Re - turned to Net Financing, and Most of the 27 New Bond - Issuing Entities Achieved New Financing - **Net Financing Scale**: The net financing scale of urban investment bonds in October was 150 million yuan, an increase of 440 million yuan compared to August but lower than 688 million yuan in the same period last year. The exchange - issued urban investment bonds shifted from net repayment to net financing of 473 million yuan, while the net repayment scale of the association further expanded to 323 million yuan. [4][8] - **Regional Distribution**: In October, 14 provinces and municipalities such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong had positive net financing of urban investment bonds, while 12 provinces and municipalities such as Chongqing and Jiangxi had net repayment. In the past year, the net repayment of urban investment bonds was 6.29 billion yuan, with a slightly narrowed decline compared to the previous year. Most provinces had an increase in net financing scale year - on - year, but 11 provinces and municipalities still had net repayment. [4][11] - **Early Repayment**: The actual early repayment scale of urban investment bonds in October decreased by 70 million yuan compared to September to 770 million yuan, but the scale of announced early repayment and cash tender offer repurchase increased month - on - month. The number and scale of termination approvals on the exchange in October both decreased. [4] - **First - Time Bond - Issuing Entities**: In October, there were 27 first - time bond - issuing entities, an increase of 4 compared to September, and the total bond - issuing scale rose to 1.354 billion yuan. These entities mainly issued bonds through private placement bonds on the exchange. The first - time bond - issuing platforms were mainly distributed in relatively economically developed regions such as Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang. [4][22] 3.2 In October, the Proportion of Borrowing New to Repay Old in Urban Investment Bond Issuance Slightly Decreased, and the Number of New Financing Entities in the Association was Lower than that in the Exchange - **Proportion of Borrowing New to Repay Old**: The proportion of borrowing new to repay old in urban investment bond issuance in October decreased by 4.3 pct to 77.2%, and the proportions of repaying interest - bearing debts, supplementing working capital, project construction, and equity investment rebounded. [26] - **Regional Differences**: In October, the borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratios in Guizhou and Xinjiang remained at 100%. The borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratios in 11 provinces and municipalities such as Yunnan, Tianjin, and Ningxia increased, while those in 12 provinces and municipalities such as Hubei, Hunan, and Zhejiang decreased. [26][27] - **New Financing Entities**: In October, the association issued 36 products involving 25 entities, with a total issuance scale of 3.4677 billion yuan. The exchange issued 62 new - financing bonds involving 51 entities, with a total issuance scale of 4.5659 billion yuan. [28][29] 3.3 In October, 23 New Market - Oriented Declaration Entities were Added, and the Spreads between Entities Inside and Outside the List Showed No Differentiation - **Accumulated Market - Oriented Declaration Entities**: As of the end of October, a total of 525 urban investment entities declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities when issuing bonds. [36] - **October's Issuance Situation**: In October, 78 entities that declared market - oriented operation in the association issued 113 association bonds, with a total issuance scale of 6.8348 billion yuan. Five entities that declared market - oriented operation in the exchange issued exchange products in October, among which Hefei Construction Investment achieved new financing. [5][39] - **Spread Analysis**: The spreads between market - oriented operating entities and those without such a declaration remained undifferentiated. For AA - rated and AA(2) - rated urban investment bonds, the spreads in most regions converged, and there was no significant differentiation between market - oriented and non - market - oriented entities. [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved a year-on-year growth of 9.8% in parcel volume for Q3 2025, driven by a strong performance in the bulk parcel segment, which saw nearly 50% growth year-on-year [3][6] - The company adjusted its full-year parcel volume growth target down to 12.3% to 13.8%, reflecting a more cautious outlook while emphasizing quality and market share expansion [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, particularly in the context of e-commerce and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, which shifts focus from quantity to quality [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, ZTO Express reported total revenue of 34.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with adjusted net profit of 6.818 billion yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [2] Operational Metrics - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express handled 9.573 billion parcels, marking a 9.8% increase year-on-year, with a market share of approximately 19.4%, maintaining the leading position in the industry [3] - The average revenue per parcel in Q3 was 1.15 yuan, reflecting a 2.3% increase year-on-year, attributed to improved pricing dynamics due to the "anti-involution" trend [3] Cost and Profitability - The cost per parcel in Q3 was approximately 0.59 yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with significant reductions in line-haul and sorting costs [4] - The adjusted net profit per parcel was 0.262 yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, but up 25.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved profitability trends [4] Future Outlook - The report projects adjusted net profits for ZTO Express to be 9.870 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of -2.08%, 14.21%, and 11.11% for the following years [7] - The company is expected to leverage its scale and operational efficiencies to achieve stable growth in both parcel volume and profitability [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have declined due to geopolitical factors, with Brent and WTI prices at $62.56 and $58.06 per barrel respectively as of November 21, 2025 [9][22] - The oil and petrochemical sector has seen a decrease of 2.99% in the past week, while the broader market (CSI 300) fell by 3.77% [10][12] - The report highlights a potential restart of peace talks between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict, which may impact oil prices [9] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $62.56 per barrel, down $1.83 (-2.84%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures fell to $58.06, down $2.03 (-3.38%) [22] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, including US sanctions on Russian oil, have influenced market dynamics [9] Offshore Drilling Services - As of November 17, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 365, a decrease of 5 from the previous week [25] Oil Supply - US crude oil production was reported at 13.834 million barrels per day as of November 14, 2025, a decrease of 28,000 barrels from the previous week [36] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 to 419 as of November 21, 2025 [36] Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing increased to 16.232 million barrels per day as of November 14, 2025, up by 259,000 barrels from the previous week [46] Oil Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 835 million barrels, a decrease of 2.893 million barrels (-0.35%) [56] - Strategic oil inventory increased by 533,000 barrels (+0.13%) to 411 million barrels [56] Refined Oil Prices - In North America, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $107.63, $81.99, and $98.74 per barrel respectively as of November 21, 2025 [78]