市场维持震荡， 主动权益基金向哑铃型配置迁移 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W39） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 28 日 截至 2025/9/26，主动权益型基金的平均仓位约为 90.31%。其中，普通股 票型基金的平均仓位约为 92.51%（较上周下降 0.13pct），偏股混合型基金 的平均仓位约为 91.14%（较上周下降 0.02pct），配置型基金的平均仓位约 为 88.03%（较上周下降 0.45pct）；"固收+"基金平均仓位约为 23.27%， 较上周下降 0.21pct。 近三月公募基金上调大盘成长配置比例。截至 2025/9/26，主动偏股型基 金大盘成长仓位 32.35%（较上周上升 0.24pct），大盘价值仓位 9.73%（较 上周下降 0.61pct），中盘成长仓位 6.73%（较上周下降 0.36pct），中盘价 值仓位 8.35%（较上周下降 0.3pct），小盘成长仓位 36 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the A-share automotive sector lagging behind the broader market, showing a flat performance while the CSI 300 index increased by 1.07% [3][4] - Key news includes Chery Automobile's successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 9.145 billion, and the launch of the Li Auto i6 at a starting price of CNY 249,800 [21][22] - The report suggests focusing on various automotive manufacturers and parts suppliers, highlighting companies like BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Xpeng Motors for passenger vehicles, and China National Heavy Duty Truck and FAW Jiefang for commercial vehicles [3][21] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector underperformed the market, ranking 7th among the Shenwan first-level industries [3][4] - The passenger vehicle segment saw a decline of 0.94%, while the commercial vehicle segment dropped by 2.64% [3][4] 2. Industry News - Chery Automobile officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking the largest IPO of a car company in Hong Kong this year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7% in revenue from 2022 to 2024 [21] - The launch of the Li Auto i6, which features a length of 4950 mm and a price starting at CNY 249,800, is expected to enhance competition in the market [22] - The report highlights ongoing support policies for the automotive industry and the continuous introduction of new models [3][21] 3. Key Data Tracking - The report includes various price indices for raw materials relevant to the automotive industry, such as steel and aluminum prices, which are crucial for production costs [23][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a clear long-term low-carbon transition goal and deepening energy cooperation between China and Russia [1][5] - The utility sector has shown resilience, with the power sector experiencing a slight increase while the gas sector faced a decline [5][15] - The report anticipates improvements in profitability and value reassessment for the power sector due to ongoing supply-demand tensions and market reforms [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 26, the utility sector rose by 0.3%, outperforming the broader market, with the power sector up by 0.37% and the gas sector down by 0.63% [5][13] - The report notes that the electricity market is expected to see a gradual increase in prices due to ongoing reforms and supply-demand dynamics [5][6] Power Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) increased to 703 CNY/ton, a weekly rise of 4 CNY/ton [5][23] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased to 5.4 million tons, down 750,000 tons week-on-week [5][30] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces was reported at 3.014 million tons, a decrease of 378,000 tons/day, with an available supply of 30.27 days [5][32] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,016 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20.66% [5][57] - The EU's natural gas supply for week 38 was 5.46 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [5][63] - Domestic natural gas consumption in July was 36.17 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5][6] Key Industry News - The report mentions a significant energy supply contract between Russia and China, described as unprecedented, which is expected to enhance export potential and regional development [5][6] - The total electricity consumption in August grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from various sectors [5][6] Investment Recommendations - For the power sector, the report suggests focusing on leading coal power companies and those in regions with tight electricity supply [5][6] - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions [5][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [148]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown a decline, with domestic key refining project price differential at 2338.86 CNY/ton, down by 1.52% week-on-week, while the international price differential is at 1062.71 CNY/ton, down by 9.32% [2][3]. - Brent crude oil average price for the week ending September 26, 2025, was 68.03 USD/barrel, reflecting a slight increase of 0.71% [2][3]. - The report indicates that the refining sector is facing mixed signals, with international oil prices experiencing volatility due to geopolitical factors and economic data from the US raising concerns about demand [2][14]. - In the chemical sector, prices for petrochemical products have generally weakened, with price differentials narrowing across various products [2][46]. - The polyester and nylon sectors are experiencing price declines, with polyester filament factories slightly reducing production while facing weak demand [2][81][115]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices increasing by 3.45 and 3.04 USD/barrel respectively from the previous week [14]. - Domestic diesel and gasoline prices have slightly decreased, with average prices at 6905.29 CNY/ton and 7995.14 CNY/ton respectively [14]. Chemical Sector - Polyethylene prices have shown slight declines, with LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE averaging 9685.71 CNY/ton, 7148.00 CNY/ton, and 8000.00 CNY/ton respectively [53][66]. - The report indicates that the MMA market is showing price stability due to limited supply pressure, with MMA averaging 10242.86 CNY/ton [66]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - PX prices have decreased, with the current average at 5757.10 CNY/ton, while PTA prices are also down to 4537.86 CNY/ton [81][96]. - The report highlights that the demand for polyester filament remains weak, with production adjustments being made in response to inventory levels [81][123]. Market Performance - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, noting significant weekly changes, with Rongsheng Petrochemical up by 4.55% and Dongfang Shenghong down by 3.32% [134][135]. - The overall performance of the refining index has increased by 44.48% since September 4, 2017, outperforming both the oil and petrochemical industry indices [137].

—— 信用利差周度跟踪 20250926 利率调整中信用利差大幅走高 二永债升幅较普信债更大 歌声ue 证券研究报告 3利率调整中信用利差大幅走高 二永债升幅较普信债更大 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 9 月 27 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing reform of residential heating prices, which is expected to improve profitability for heating companies as price adjustments are anticipated in the future [4][5] - The environmental sector has shown resilience, with the sector index rising by 1.1%, outperforming the broader market [11][12] - The report emphasizes the significant differences in profitability among residential heating companies, driven by local pricing policies and cost control measures [18][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 26, the environmental sector index increased by 1.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2% to 3828.11 [11] - The top-performing sub-sectors included water governance and waste management, with increases of 2.7% and 2.83% respectively [12] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the improvement in national ecological quality, with PM2.5 concentrations decreasing to 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter in 2024, a 16.3% reduction from 2020 [37] - The report notes that the government is pushing for deeper reforms in urban heating price mechanisms, with several regions already implementing price adjustments [26][28] Heating Price Reform - The report analyzes the pricing structure for residential heating, which is determined by a government-regulated cost-plus model [22] - It highlights that fuel costs constitute a significant portion of total heating costs, with an example showing that fuel, purchase heat, and auxiliary material costs accounted for 58% of total costs for a leading company in 2024 [29] - The report anticipates a trend of increasing heating prices, which could lead to a recovery in profitability for heating companies [26][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the environmental sector, particularly in energy conservation and resource recycling, is likely to maintain a high level of prosperity [52] - Key recommendations include companies such as Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [53]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector has shown strong performance with a year-to-date increase of 50.51%, while other electronic segments have also experienced significant growth [2][9] - Micron's FY25 Q4 performance exceeded guidance, achieving revenues of $11.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22% [2][24] - The data center business is a key growth driver for Micron, with DRAM revenue reaching $9 billion, up 27% quarter-on-quarter, and HBM revenue nearing $2 billion [2][25] - Price increases for DRAM and NAND are expected to continue into Q4, with projected increases of 8%-13% for DRAM and 5%-10% for NAND [2][29] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector has shown varied performance, with significant increases in semiconductor and consumer electronics, while components and optical electronics have seen declines [2][9] - Notable stock performances include Apple (+4.06%), Tesla (+3.36%), and Intel (+20.01%), while Micron saw a decline of -3.36% [2][12] Micron's Financial Performance - Micron's FY25 Q4 revenue was $11.3 billion, with a gross margin of 46%, up from 39% in the previous quarter [24] - DRAM accounted for 79% of total revenue, while NAND contributed 20% [25] - The guidance for FY26 Q1 indicates expected revenue of approximately $12.5 billion with a gross margin of 51.5% [26] Price Forecasts - DRAM prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and demand shifts towards high-end server DRAM [2][27] - NAND Flash prices are also projected to increase, driven by a shortage of HDD supply and a shift in demand to QLC Enterprise SSDs [2][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, including Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential restrictions on fuel exports from Russia, alongside a decrease in US crude oil inventories [2][9] - As of September 26, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $69.22 and $65.72 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 4.82% and 5.32% from the previous week [2][27] - The report highlights the performance of the oil and petrochemical sector, noting a slight decline of 0.12% in the sector compared to a 1.07% increase in the broader market [10][13] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $69.22 per barrel, up $3.18 (+4.82%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $65.72 per barrel, an increase of $3.32 (+5.32%) [2][27] - Russian Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude increased by $1.67 (+2.65%) to $64.63 per barrel [2][27] Offshore Drilling Services - As of September 22, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 371, an increase of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms decreased to 130 [31] US Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production reached 13.501 million barrels per day, an increase of 19,000 barrels from the previous week [52] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US rose to 424, with an increase of 6 rigs [52] US Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing averaged 16.476 million barrels per day, up by 52,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.00%, down 0.3 percentage points [63] US Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory was 821 million barrels, a decrease of 377,000 barrels (-0.05%) from the previous week [72] - Strategic crude oil inventory increased by 230,000 barrels (+0.06%) to 406 million barrels, while commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels (-0.15%) to 415 million barrels [72] Finished Oil Products - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $98.74 (+0.47), $83.94 (-0.58), and $85.97 (-1.87) per barrel, respectively [91]

贴水收窄 VIX 下行，市场情绪温和转暖 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 9 月 27 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_FirstAuthor] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 金工研究 [T金工ableReportType] 点评报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 崔诗笛 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080001 联系电话：+86 18516560686 邮 箱：cuishidi@cindasc.com 孙石 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080010 联系电话：+86 18817366228 邮 箱：sunshi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公 ...

习近平宣布中国新一轮国家自主贡献 [Table_Industry] ESG 周报 [2T0a2b5l年e_9Re月po2rt6D日ate] 行业研究 [ETSaGble_StockAndRank] 郭雪 环保公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 习近平宣布中国新一轮国家自主贡献 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 09 月 26 日 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 本期内容提要: [Ta[Tbalbel_热eS_u点Smum聚mamr焦ya]：ry] 投资评级 —— 上次评级 —— 国内：习近平在联合国气候变化峰会发表视频致辞。9 月 24 日，国家主席 习近平在联合国气候变化峰会发表视频致辞。习近平指出，今年是《巴 ...