—— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251122 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 [Table_ReportDate] 2 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that since November, the US stock market has continued to weaken, with increased volatility in the A-share market. The main reasons for the recent volatility in the US market include a cooling expectation of interest rate cuts in December, a decline in market risk appetite, and significant concerns regarding the degree of AI bubble. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a high level, approaching the peak during the dot-com bubble, while the Nasdaq index's P/E ratio is also high but still has a considerable distance from the dot-com bubble peak [2][8][9] - The financial pressure on major US tech companies is rapidly increasing, with some financial pressure indicators nearing levels seen during the dot-com bubble. The capital expenditure to revenue ratio for the seven major US tech companies has risen to 19% as of Q3 2025, compared to a peak of 10% during the dot-com bubble. Additionally, the capital expenditure to free cash flow ratio has exceeded 100%, indicating significant financial strain [3][16][20] - The report emphasizes that the core factors influencing the magnitude and duration of overseas market volatility are liquidity and inflation, rather than earnings. Historical examples show that liquidity tightening due to interest rate hikes has led to valuation corrections in high-valuation sectors. The most critical factor for the sustainability of a slow bull market in the US is persistent low inflation [3][23][28] Group 2 - The report suggests that the current valuation levels of the US stock market indicate a bubble-like state, with the S&P 500's P/E ratio exceeding the average by more than one standard deviation since 2000. The peak P/E ratio was approximately 29.8 times at the end of October, close to the 30 times peak during the dot-com bubble [11][12][14] - The report also notes that the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026 is higher, with a low probability of aggressive rate hikes leading to a valuation bubble burst. The ongoing strength of the US stock market since October 2022 is attributed more to easing inflation than to changes in earnings [28][29] - The report highlights tactical and strategic views on the market, indicating that while the foundation for a bull market remains solid, there may be wide fluctuations due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets. There are opportunities for upward movement in the A-share market if there are positive policy or funding changes by the end of the year [29][34]

调整中见韧性：VIX 理性上行叠加期指资金积极布局 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_FirstAuthor] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 崔诗笛 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080001 联系电话：+86 18516560686 邮 箱：cuishidi@cindasc.com 孙石 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080010 联系电话：+86 18817366228 邮 箱：sunshi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,L ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Miniso (9896.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on strong performance metrics and growth potential. Core Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 15.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.7%. The adjusted net profit for the same period was 2.046 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.5% [1][2] - The company's same-store sales growth in China reached low double-digit levels in October 2025, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [2] - The TOP TOY segment showed exceptional performance with a revenue increase of 87.9% year-over-year, contributing significantly to overall growth [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Miniso achieved a revenue of 5.797 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 28.2%. Domestic revenue was 2.909 billion yuan (yoy +19.3%), while overseas revenue was 2.312 billion yuan (yoy +27.7%). TOP TOY's Q3 revenue was 575 million yuan (yoy +111.4%) [2] - The adjusted operating profit margin for Q3 was 17.6%, showing a narrowing decline of 2.1 percentage points, indicating improved profitability [3] Store Expansion - As of the end of Q3 2025, Miniso had a total of 8,138 stores globally, with 4,407 in China and 3,424 overseas. The company opened 718 new stores year-over-year, with 75.7% of new openings in overseas markets [3] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 2.703 billion yuan, 3.438 billion yuan, and 4.232 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.4X, 12.9X, and 10.5X [4][6]

Contribution to Exports - New "three new" products contributed 2.5 percentage points to export growth, which is half of the 5.1 percentage points contributed by electromechanical products[1] - New "three new" products accounted for only 7.5% of the total electromechanical product exports, yet contributed approximately 50% to the growth of electromechanical exports[8] - Total export value of new "three new" products reached $126 billion, reflecting a growth of over 55% compared to the same period last year[7] Growth Drivers - The primary growth driver for new "three new" products is the electric vehicle sector, which saw a threefold increase in export value, raising its share from 14% to 38% within the new "three new" category[18] - Lithium-ion batteries, while still the largest segment within the new "three new" products, saw a decrease in share from 54% to 44% due to slower growth compared to electric vehicles[18] - Photovoltaic products experienced a decline in export value despite an increase in quantity, indicating a trend of rising volume but falling prices[18] Market Dynamics - Exports of new "three new" products are primarily directed towards Europe (39.5%) and Asia (37.1%), with a notable increase in market penetration in Africa, where the share rose to 3.1%[20][22] - Africa is the only region where the share of all categories of new "three new" products is increasing, suggesting significant growth potential in this market[20][21] - The growth rate of new "three new" products in Africa has expanded by 0.6 percentage points over the past year, indicating a rapidly developing market[20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support for economic growth, lower-than-expected global economic conditions, and unexpected trade frictions[27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month, ending the two - month trend of less growth. The rebound of inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale was the main driving force, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds declined significantly [3][6]. - The bond market performance eased in October. Long - term interest rates showed a recovery trend, and dropped significantly after the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading on the 27th. Trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased significantly, while the allocation willingness of allocation - type institutions declined [3][10]. - Due to the increase in institutions' borrowed funds, the bond market leverage ratio increased slightly by 0.1 pct to 107.4% in October, remaining at a relatively low level. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased, but the absolute level was still not high [3][37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 10 - month Bond Custody Increment Rebounds, and Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Net Financing is the Main Support - The total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month in October, with the inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale turning from decline to increase for the first time since June this year. The net financing scale of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds decreased significantly [3][6]. - For interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds all decreased compared with the previous month. For credit bonds, the custody increment of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while that of enterprise bonds and PPN continued to decline [6]. The Central Bank Restarts Bond Buying, Market Sentiment Improves, and the Willingness of Trading Desks to Increase Bond Holdings is Significantly Restored - In October, the bond market performance eased. After the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading, long - term interest rates dropped significantly. The trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased, while the allocation willingness of commercial banks and insurance companies declined [10]. - **General Funds**: The bond custody scale increased by 104.45 billion yuan month - on - month, turning to increase holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit, medium - term notes, and short - term commercial paper, and reducing the scale of selling financial bonds [15]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume increased by 134.8 billion yuan month - on - month, reaching a new high since July 2024, mainly due to a large increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [17][19]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume decreased by 450 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [22]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 5.42 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increased scale of selling domestic bonds, but turning to increase holdings of treasury bonds and reduce holdings of policy - bank bonds [24][25]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody volume increased by 35.56 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increase in holdings of treasury bonds and certificates of deposit, and a decrease in holdings of policy - bank bonds [27]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody scale decreased by 25.14 billion yuan month - on - month, mainly due to a significant decrease in the scale of increasing holdings of treasury bonds and an increase in the scale of reducing holdings of local bonds [30]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 206 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [34]. In October, the Non - bank Leverage Ratio Increased Beyond Seasonality, but the Absolute Level was Still Not High - In October, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.1 pct to 107.4% month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level. The non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased by 0.3 pct to 117.2%, but the absolute level was still not high in the past three - year dimension [37]. - Among them, the securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 3.3 pct to 219.9%, while the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 0.3 pct to 114.0% [37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 汇通达网络 (9878.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook following the acquisition of a controlling stake in 认知边界 [1]. Core Insights - The acquisition of a 57% stake in 认知边界 for 4.56 billion yuan is expected to enhance 汇通达's capabilities in AI and digital solutions, creating a new growth curve through strategic synergies [1]. - The deal includes performance-based payment terms, ensuring that AI revenue contributes significantly to the company's growth, with specific targets set for net profit and AI revenue percentages over the next four years [1]. - The integration of 认知边界's digital services with 汇通达's existing resources is anticipated to strengthen their market position in the e-commerce sector and improve operational efficiency for retail clients [2][3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 汇通达 from 2025 to 2027 are 346 million yuan, 459 million yuan, and 576 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.95X, 12.00X, and 9.56X [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 63.15 billion yuan in 2025 to 77.15 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [5][6]. Strategic Synergies - The partnership with 认知边界 is expected to create a comprehensive digital empowerment platform that combines online systems with offline networks, enhancing service capabilities for both e-commerce and traditional retail businesses [3][4]. - The collaboration aims to leverage data-driven decision-making and supply chain support, thereby increasing customer engagement and value [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor, and ticket prices have shown a positive trend since October 2025. This is expected to lead to a significant recovery in airline unit revenue. The implementation of measures against "involution" and the "Self-Regulation Convention" is anticipated to reduce malicious low pricing, further supporting ticket price recovery and airline profitability. Additionally, the decline in oil prices is expected to lower costs, enhancing airline earnings potential. Key airlines to focus on include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Since the beginning of 2025, the industry has seen sustained high passenger load factors. The supply-demand dynamics indicate a slowdown in capacity growth, with airlines focusing on international routes. The overall passenger turnover has shown steady growth, and ticket prices have been recovering since October, leading to improved airline unit revenue and performance in the fourth quarter [12][13]. 2. Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices - The industry has experienced a continued high passenger load factor, with the September 2025 load factor reaching 86.3%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year. In October, the combined passenger turnover for six major airlines showed a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [3][21]. - Ticket prices have shown a positive trend since November, with the average domestic ticket price at 850 RMB, down 7.2% year-on-year. However, from October to mid-November, the average ticket price for domestic routes was 738 RMB, reflecting a 0.3% increase year-on-year [4][22]. 3. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel remained stable year-on-year, with domestic aviation fuel prices at 5572 RMB/ton in October and 5625 RMB/ton in November, showing minimal change. The exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated since the beginning of 2025, with the USD to RMB exchange rate decreasing by 1.43% from the end of 2024 to mid-November 2025 [4][36]. 4. Airline Capacity and Operations - In October 2025, most airlines reported a year-on-year increase in capacity, with domestic routes showing steady growth. The passenger load factor for domestic routes was notably high, with significant increases in turnover for major airlines. The introduction of new aircraft has also been observed, with Hainan Airlines adding four new aircraft in October, the highest among the six major airlines [5][43].

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's 7-day OMO net injection this week was 626.2 billion yuan, with a gradual easing of the funding environment after a spike in rates earlier in the week[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.53 trillion yuan to 7.44 trillion yuan, indicating a decline in overall market activity[3] - The new funding gap index rose to -113.5 on Tuesday, reflecting fluctuations in liquidity conditions throughout the week[3] Financial Data Overview - In October, the excess reserve ratio fell by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly below the expected 1.3%[21] - New social financing in October was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's 1.41 trillion yuan, with a notable decline in credit and government bond financing[24] - The M2 growth rate decreased from 8.4% to 8.2% in October, influenced by a drop in bank bond investment scale[24] Government Debt and Financing - The upcoming government bond payment scale is set at 333 billion yuan, with total new general bonds issued this year reaching 702.6 billion yuan and special bonds at 4.1492 trillion yuan[5] - The expected net financing scale for November's government bonds is approximately 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of about 630 billion yuan compared to October[5] Market Reactions and Expectations - The central bank's proactive stance on monetary policy adjustments suggests a potential interest rate cut by Q1 2026, responding to the current economic environment[5] - The financial market's response to the recent monetary policy report indicates a cautious optimism, with expectations for continued support for the real economy despite potential risks[5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes short-term attention to the flu market while advocating a long-term focus on innovation [2][4] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance recently, driven by factors such as the flu epidemic and upcoming national medical insurance negotiations [4][12] - The report suggests focusing on specific segments like flu vaccines, flu medications, respiratory testing, and high-end medical devices for long-term investment [4][12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's weekly return was 3.29%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.37%, ranking 5th among 31 sub-industry indices [4][12] - The flu epidemic is currently on the rise, with ILI percentages in southern and northern regions exceeding previous years [4][12] - Upcoming medical insurance negotiations involve 120 companies, with results expected in early December [4][12] 2. Market Performance and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector's recent one-month return was 1.16%, ranking 20th among sub-industry indices [15][24] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry is 30.84, above the historical average of 28.97 [19][21] 3. Focus on Specific Stocks - Recommended stocks for flu vaccines include Huashan Vaccine and Jindike [4][12] - For flu medications, companies like Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Jichuan Pharmaceutical are highlighted [4][12] - In high-end medical devices, companies such as Mindray Medical and Yuyue Medical are suggested for investment [4][12] 4. Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policy developments include discussions on medical insurance payment policies and adjustments to payment grouping schemes [4][12] - Notable company performances include BeiGene's Q3 revenue of $1.4 billion, a 41% increase year-on-year, and Innovent Biologics' revenue growth of 59.8% [4][12]