Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market currently has significant differences, and breaking through the current trading range requires the formation of a new consensus, which is expected to gradually take shape in the next month [2][7]. - The economic data in August further weakened, and if the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the possibility of the central bank restarting bond purchases or even reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates cannot be ruled out [2]. - Although the bond market is currently sensitive to negative factors, the probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [2][3]. - The central bank is likely to maintain the stability of cross - quarter funds, and the adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [2][3][47]. - During the period of waiting for market consensus to form, it is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest rates need the market to reach a new consensus on the central bank's adjustment driven by the weakening fundamentals for further decline - In August, the economic data further weakened. The industrial added - value dropped to a new low of 5.2% for the year, and the 25Q3 GDP growth rate is likely to drop to 5% or lower [2][10]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in August dropped to 3.4%. After September, the base increase may further magnify the pressure, and the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment accelerated its decline, with all three sub - items weakening comprehensively [2][13][15]. - In August, the real - estate - related growth rates also declined across the board. Although the economic entered the peak season in September, the improvement of production activities was not significantly better than the seasonal average, and the export volume may face pressure in Q4 [2][18][19]. - Since Q3, the relationship between the bond market and the fundamentals has weakened. If the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the central bank may restart bond purchases or even reduce the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates, but the market needs time to reach a consensus on this [2][26]. 2. Under the central bank's stable attitude, the bank's liability pressure is limited. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices - In August, the excess reserve ratio was 1.1%, lower than expected, mainly due to the unexpected significant increase in government deposits, which may be affected by the slowdown of general public budget expenditures and the slow progress of replacement bond use [2][26][29]. - The central bank's tool issuance in recent months has been more inclined to large - scale banks. Small and medium - sized banks have continued to net repay inter - bank certificates of deposit, indicating that their motivation to expand assets through inter - bank business has weakened, and their liability pressure may be relatively lower [2][36]. - Last week, the funds tightened marginally under multiple exogenous disturbances, but on Friday, the funds became looser marginally. The average values of DR001 and DR007 since September are roughly the same as those since Q3, so it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed [2][3][40]. - The central bank's adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to fixed - quantity, interest - rate bidding, and multiple - price winning may achieve the effect of interest - rate cuts in essence, showing the intention to support cross - quarter funds and being conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [47]. 3. Emphasize the leveraged interest - rate - arbitrage strategy in the short term and wait for clearer signals for long - end bonds - The probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [3][49]. - Although the probability of the central bank's bond purchases, reserve - requirement ratio cuts, and interest - rate cuts in the future increases, the timing of market consensus formation is uncertain, and it is difficult to grasp the right - side entry rhythm [3][50]. - The central bank's liquidity easing has the highest certainty. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3][50][51].

Performance Overview - Since 2025, the annualized excess return median for enhanced index funds is 2.82%, with the 75th percentile reaching 8.21%, significantly higher than levels from 2022 to 2024[11] - The annualized excess return median for broad-based enhanced index funds is 3%, an increase of 0.68% compared to 2024[11] - The China Securities A500 Index has shown a remarkable annualized return of 48.97% over the past year, with a total return index close to 52.65%[2] Fund Performance - The China Europe A500 Enhanced Index Fund has achieved a cumulative return of 25.94% since its establishment, outperforming the A500 Index by 7.73%[46] - The fund ranks second among eight similar A500 enhanced funds in terms of performance since inception[46] - The fund's annualized excess return is approximately 11.1%, with a 1-month and 3-month performance ranking first among peers[6] Investment Strategy - The fund employs a "active + quantitative" management model, integrating subjective research with quantitative tools to enhance alpha generation[21] - The investment philosophy is based on GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), focusing on identifying quality companies with growth potential within reasonable price ranges[31] - The fund maintains a high index tracking ratio while leveraging active stock selection to contribute diversified alpha, with a correlation of daily excess returns to similar funds generally below 0.4 over the past six months[46] Risk Factors - Key risk factors include macroeconomic downturns, increased stock market volatility, and unexpected tightening of financial regulations[5] - The fund is classified as a high-risk, high-reward equity fund, and past performance does not guarantee future results[5] Fund Composition - As of mid-2025, the fund's total scale is 4.4 billion yuan, with a stock position of 92.73%[55] - The fund is diversified across various sectors, with significant allocations to machinery, agriculture, electronics, and utilities, while underweighting sectors like non-ferrous metals and transportation[55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced slight declines due to increased diesel inventories and upward adjustments in supply surplus pressure by organizations like IEA and EIA, despite favorable conditions such as crude oil inventory reductions and interest rate cuts [2][9]. - As of September 19, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were recorded at $66.04 and $62.40 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.42% and 0.46% respectively from the previous week [2][28]. - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a decline of 1.99% in the week ending September 19, 2025, while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.44% [10][13]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $66.04 per barrel, down $0.95 (-1.42%), while WTI crude futures settled at $62.40 per barrel, down $0.29 (-0.46%) [2][28]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 372, a decrease of 2 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms increased by 1 to 131 [32]. U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.482 million barrels per day, a decrease of 13,000 barrels from the previous week [55]. U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing averaged 16.424 million barrels per day, down 394,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.30%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points [64][66]. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 821 million barrels, a decrease of 8.781 million barrels (-1.06%) from the previous week [75]. Finished Oil Products - In North America, the average weekly prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $98.27, $84.52, and $87.49 per barrel respectively, with respective price differences from crude oil of $30.72, $16.97, and $19.93 [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase tender method is beneficial for the decline of cross - quarter funds prices. The current institution's cross - quarter progress is slow, and the central bank's adjustment shows its intention to support cross - quarter liquidity, which helps to stabilize the cross - quarter funds price. Although this week's funds were tightened due to multiple factors, it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed. Next week, the overall liquidity pressure is expected to ease marginally [3][26][29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Funds Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 5623 billion yuan this week, and a 6000 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repurchase was carried out on Monday, with a monthly net injection of 3000 billion yuan. A 1500 - billion - yuan 1M treasury cash fixed - deposit operation was conducted on Wednesday, with a winning bid rate of 1.78%, the same as the previous value. Affected by factors such as the tax period and government bond payments, funds were marginally tightened. DR001 once rose to 1.51% on Thursday and only eased significantly on Friday [3][8]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase fluctuated and declined this week, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.33 trillion yuan to 7.16 trillion yuan. The net lending of large banks decreased in the first half of the week and rebounded above 4 trillion yuan in the second half. The net lending of city commercial banks and joint - stock banks decreased on Monday and recovered in the middle of the week but declined again on Friday. The net lending of non - banks increased significantly on Wednesday and then decreased slightly, while the net borrowing of non - banks increased in the second half of the week. The funds gap index first rose and then fell [3][16]. - The September cross - quarter progress of inter - bank institutions and exchanges was slow, with the overall market cross - quarter progress at the lowest level in recent years. The excess reserve ratio in August decreased by 0.1 pct to 1.1%, lower than the expected 1.4%, mainly due to the unexpected increase of 3370 billion yuan in government deposits [3][20][22]. - This week, funds tightened marginally due to multiple exogenous disturbances, especially the freezing of 8512 billion yuan by the new stock Jinhuaxincai on the Beijing Stock Exchange, which caused a significant increase in GC001 on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, funds eased on Friday, and the average values of DR001 and DR007 since September were 1.39% and 1.48% respectively, similar to those since Q3, so it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed [3][26]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Funds Outlook - Next week, the treasury bond payment scale is expected to be 3320 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale of 12 regions is 1961 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 2422 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will decrease from 4030 billion yuan this week to 908 billion yuan, but the single - day net payment on Monday will reach 2525 billion yuan [3][33]. - The report maintains the assumption that the treasury bond issuance in September is 1.49 trillion yuan with a net financing of about 7300 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance is 9000 billion yuan with a net financing of 4900 billion yuan. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in September is about 2.39 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of about 1.22 trillion yuan [3][41]. - It is estimated that the treasury bond issuance scale in October is about 1.25 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of about 2700 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale is 7100 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 4600 billion yuan. The overall government bond issuance scale in October is expected to be about 1.96 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 7300 billion yuan [3][44]. - Next week, the maturity scale of reverse repurchases will rise to 18268 billion yuan, and there will be a 3000 - billion - yuan MLF maturity on Thursday. The main exogenous disturbances to the funds will be concentrated in the first half of the week. Although the demand for cross - quarter funds will increase in the second half of the week, the central bank will stabilize funds through 14 - day reverse repurchase injections, MLF is likely to be renewed in excess, and the end - of - quarter fiscal expenditure may also provide some hedging. It is expected that the liquidity pressure will ease marginally compared to this week [3][52]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1Y Shibor rate rose 0.6BP to 1.67%, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.5BP to 1.68% [53]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased this week, with a net financing of 903 billion yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 2469 billion yuan, - 843 billion yuan, - 529 billion yuan, and - 47 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit rose to 23%, and the 3M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance proportion at 36%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 8941 billion yuan, an increase of 881 billion yuan compared to this week [57]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased compared to last week, while that of joint - stock banks decreased. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of state - owned banks, the others were above the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1Y certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [58]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, bill rates fluctuated and rose. The rates of 3M and 6M national stock bills rose 10BP and 7BP respectively to 1.25% and 0.86% [4]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, bond yields fluctuated at a high level, and the spreads of credit and Tier 2 perpetual bonds were relatively stable. Large banks' willingness to increase bond holdings decreased significantly, especially for medium - and short - term treasury bonds. Their willingness to reduce holdings of 3 - 7 - year policy financial bonds and local bonds increased, and they tended to reduce holdings of Tier 2 perpetual bonds [4]. - Trading - type institutions tended to increase bond holdings, including fund companies and securities companies. The willingness of other products to increase holdings also rose, while that of other institutions decreased. Allocation - type institutions tended to reduce bond holdings. Rural commercial banks tended to reduce bond holdings, the insurance companies' willingness to increase holdings decreased, and the wealth management products' willingness to increase holdings was basically the same as last week [4].

第二批科创债 ETF 集中成立，A500 增强工具持续扩容 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W38） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 9 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportType] 金工点评报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W38)：第二批科创债 ETF 集中成立，A500 增强工具持续扩容 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_Repo ...

牛市震荡期前后的风格变化 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | 邮 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com [牛市震荡期前后的风格变化 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 21 日 核心结论：牛市期间阶段性换手率高点过后，往往会有横盘震荡，快牛 震荡时间短，慢牛震荡时间长。牛市中震 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - Recent developments include the issuance of the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [3] - The first batch of 60Ah sulfide all-solid-state batteries is expected to be delivered by Funeng Technology to strategic partners by the end of this year, achieving an energy density of 400Wh/kg [3] Summary by Sections Demand Expectations - The new energy storage development goals for 2025-2027 aim for over 100 million kilowatts of new installed capacity in the next three years, supported by domestic policies [3] - In the first half of 2025, Chinese companies secured 199 overseas energy storage orders/cooperations, totaling over 160GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 220.28% [3] Price and Demand Trends - Battery prices are stabilizing, with expectations for simultaneous volume and price increases in 2025-2026 due to robust demand from energy storage and commercial vehicle electrification [3] - The mainstream price range for 314Ah energy storage cells is between 0.26 CNY/Wh and 0.32 CNY/Wh, with leading companies likely to eliminate rebates as part of a price increase strategy [3] Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is transitioning from pilot lines to mass production, with expectations for full-scale production to begin in 2027 [3] - Key technologies include roller pressing, isostatic pressing, and homogenization, with traditional equipment manufacturers having an advantage [3] - Lithium metal anodes are expected to maintain long-term competitiveness over silicon anodes, and soft-pack aluminum-plastic films are favored for packaging [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on lithium battery leaders such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinwangda due to sustained demand from energy storage and commercial vehicles [4] - Material companies to watch include Tianci Materials, Molybdenum, Putailai, Shangtai Technology, and Fulin Precision [4] - For solid-state batteries, companies with high equipment certainty and advantages in production lines and materials include CATL, Xianlead Intelligent, Nakanor, Honggong Technology, Liyuanheng, Haichen Pharmaceutical, Huasheng Lithium Battery, Shanghai Washba, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, and Zhongyi Technology [4]

长空铸剑追梦空天，AI 算力驱动核聚变 [Table_Industry] ——信达军工 E 周刊第 197 期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 09 月 21 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 国防军工 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 张润毅 军工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050003 邮 箱：zhangrunyi@cindasc.com 孙然 军工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 长空铸剑追梦空天，AI 算力驱动核聚变 ——信达军工 E 周刊第 197 期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 09 月 21 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [一周 ...

8 月全国规上工业发电量同比增长 1.6%，天然气生产量同比增长 5.9% [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 21 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 化工行业： 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 8 月全国规上工业发电量同比增长 1.6%，天然气生 产量同比增长 5.9% 2025 年 9 月 21 日 本期内容提要: ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the steel sector in investment allocation, particularly in light of expected policy-driven production limits in the fourth quarter [1][2] - Despite current supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the steel demand is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase due to supportive policies in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors [3][2] - The report suggests that the industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-margin specialty steel companies and leading enterprises with strong cost control [3][2] Supply Situation - As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 90.4%, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 percentage points [25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.41 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.47 tons and a year-on-year increase of 176,400 tons [25] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.437 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,500 tons [25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.503 million tons as of September 19, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 107,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.32% [35] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of five major steel products is 11.014 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 62,700 tons [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.184 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.14% [43] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,507.3 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 17.52 yuan/ton [49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 22 yuan/ton, a significant week-on-week increase of 257.14% [58] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,381 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase [58] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 802 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.0 yuan/ton [72] - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,715 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 55.0 yuan/ton [72]