Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index ended December 2025 with an "11 consecutive days of gains," primarily benefiting from a recovery in risk appetite and increased trading volume in ETFs focused on the CSI A500 [2][10] - The report suggests that the liquidity environment before the Spring Festival is likely to remain favorable, with the market expected to continue performing strongly, although some volatility may occur in January [10][17] - Historical data shows that the probability of market gains is highest in February, with seasonal patterns indicating that February, July, and November are the months with the highest likelihood of market increases [11][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that in years when the Spring Festival is later, the market may perform better before the festival compared to after, contrasting with earlier years where the opposite trend was observed [12][15] - It notes that significant fluctuations in the market during the first quarter are often influenced by major economic turning points or substantial changes in household funding [13][14] - The report emphasizes that the current market position is not low, with the Shanghai Composite Index currently at approximately the 35th percentile of the past decade, indicating a potential for gradual increases in the spring market [17][20] Group 3 - The report recommends increasing allocations to flexible assets in anticipation of the spring market, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors, which typically show significant excess returns during this period [22][24] - It suggests that the financial sector, particularly non-bank financials, may see increased earnings elasticity as resident funds flow into the market [26][24] - The report also indicates that the consumer sector may present investment opportunities, especially in new consumption models and sectors benefiting from policy catalysts [26][24]

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_Author] 解运亮 宏观首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] PMI 超预期背后的信号 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 [➢Table_Summary] 12 月制造业 PMI 重返扩张区间，且回升幅度超出市场普遍预期，从年末 制造业景气度的表现来看，我们认为可能释放了以下几点信号： ➢ 第一，12 月出口对经济的拉动作用或仍较强。新订单指数的快速增长是 此次超预期的关键支撑，12 月新订单指数为下半年以来首次进入扩张区 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company, HLA, is deepening its collaboration with Adidas to build a "Sports+" ecosystem, moving beyond traditional commercial partnerships to enhance brand empowerment and channel synergy [2]. - HLA's main brand is showing steady growth, with a total of 5,723 stores as of mid-2025, and a positive revenue growth trend observed in the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with 111 international stores, and is actively exploring new markets in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [3]. - HLA's partnership with Adidas is expected to strengthen its brand influence and channel competitiveness, creating a dual-driven growth model of a stable core business and emerging growth points [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 20,957 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.7%. Revenue is expected to increase to 22,425 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2,334 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.45 yuan in 2024 to 0.49 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.73 in 2024 to 12.70 in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report maintains a positive outlook on humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and engineering machinery [2] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure remains strong, with significant investments expected in the sector [13] - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with increasing sales across various equipment types [12][63] Company Summaries 1) Rili Technology - Rili Technology is a leading supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment and core components, establishing significant technological barriers [3] - The company saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in new orders in the first half of the year, with a 44.01% increase in revenue and an 18.83% increase in net profit for the first three quarters [3][14] - The profit growth is expected to improve as the impact of new production base construction and other costs diminishes [3] 2) Konstar - Konstar focuses on the research and sales of digital testing instruments, facing challenges due to tariffs [4] - The company reported a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 22.24%, 30.66%, and 36.2% respectively [4][15] - The resilience of international business under tariff pressures and strong domestic performance are noted as positive indicators for future growth [4] 3) Newray Co., Ltd. - Newray's main products include hard alloys and tools, with Q3 revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items growing by 38.02%, 75.40%, and 94.83% respectively [5][16] - The company has successfully passed on rising raw material costs to downstream customers, enhancing profitability [5] Industry Trends - In November, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales up 9.1% and exports up 18.8% [12][63] - The demand for engineering machinery is expanding beyond excavators, with significant growth in loader and crane sales [12][70] - The AI infrastructure sector is expected to benefit from substantial investments, with companies like NVIDIA planning to deliver AI chips to Chinese clients [13][58] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the rapidly developing humanoid robot sector, the ongoing AI infrastructure boom, and the improving performance of engineering machinery and tool sectors [14][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the spring market is expected to start, with a focus on brain-computer interfaces, surgical robots, and AI applications [2][3]. - The overall performance of the biopharmaceutical sector was weak last week, with a return of -0.18%, ranking 25th among 31 primary sub-industry indices [3][12]. - The report suggests that emerging industries such as brain-computer interfaces, surgical robots, and AI applications should be closely monitored as potential investment opportunities [3][12]. Market Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector's return over the past month was -1.95%, ranking 25th among 31 primary sub-industry indices [12][14]. - The medical device sector had the highest weekly return of 0.08%, while the pharmaceutical commercial sector had a return of -1.66% [12][32]. - The report notes that the brain-computer interface index and the robotics index saw five-day gains of 3.14% and 5.27%, respectively [3][12]. Policy Dynamics - The National Medical Products Administration issued regulations for the management of internet pharmaceutical and medical device information services, aiming to standardize the registration process [12][44]. - A national centralized procurement process for high-value medical consumables has been initiated, inviting eligible companies to participate [12][44]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the recovery of thematic investments in areas like brain-computer interfaces and surgical robots, with significant advancements in these fields [3][12]. - The report identifies key companies in the brain-computer interface sector, including companies like Mindray Medical and others [3][12]. - In the high-end medical device sector, companies such as Tianzhihang and Weigao Medical are highlighted for their growth potential [3][12]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the biopharmaceutical industry is 29.13, slightly above the five-year average of 28.68 [14][19]. - The report indicates that the biopharmaceutical sector's P/E ratio has a premium of 117.10% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [20]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include Hongyuan Pharmaceutical, which saw a significant increase of 59.43% last week, driven by strong market conditions [42]. - The report lists several companies with notable weekly and monthly performance metrics, providing insights into potential investment opportunities [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the successful launch of China's first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles in Chongqing, with 46 vehicles now operational [22] - Geely Automobile has completed the privatization of its subsidiary, Zeekr, which is now a wholly-owned subsidiary [22] - The report emphasizes the gradual relaxation of intelligent driving policies, which is expected to drive growth for related companies [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 2.74%, compared to a 1.95% rise in the CSI 300 index [3][9] - The passenger vehicle sector saw a 3.26% increase, led by BYD and Haima Automobile [3][17] - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a slight decline of 0.02%, while the automotive parts sector rose by 3.32% [3][20][21] Key Industry News - The first L3 autonomous vehicles have been deployed in Chongqing, focusing on complex traffic conditions [22] - Geely's Zeekr has been privatized and delisted from the NYSE [22] - Beijing has issued the first special license plates for L3 autonomous vehicles [22] - Shenzhou Car Rental has initiated autonomous driving tourism tests in Hainan [22] - The VLA model by Yuanrong Qixing has entered mass production, marking a significant technological advancement [22] - Baidu and Uber are collaborating to test autonomous ride-hailing services in the UK, expected to launch by the end of next year [22] Upstream Data Tracking - The report includes tracking of key material prices such as steel, aluminum, natural rubber, and lithium carbonate, which are crucial for the automotive industry [24][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The electronic sub-industry has seen a significant rebound, with the Shenwan Electronics Secondary Index showing year-to-date changes of: Semiconductors (+46.46%), Other Electronics II (+53.70%), Components (+106.98%), Optical Optoelectronics (+9.42%), Consumer Electronics (+47.50%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+53.90%) [9][10] - NVIDIA announced a $20 billion acquisition of Groq's core assets, focusing on the LPU architecture, which offers advantages in inference tasks. This acquisition is NVIDIA's largest investment to date and includes the absorption of Groq's key personnel to enhance the technology's scalability [2][3] - The NVIDIA H200 chip is expected to ship in February 2026, with an initial shipment of 50,000 to 80,000 units. The H200 is projected to have performance up to six times that of the H100, featuring 141GB of HBM3e memory and a memory bandwidth of 4.8TB/s [3][31] Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic sub-industry has rebounded significantly, with weekly changes in the semiconductor sector (+4.84%), other electronics II (+7.46%), components (+7.40%), optical optoelectronics (+0.86%), consumer electronics (+5.14%), and electronic chemicals II (+6.19%) [9][10] Key Company Movements - Major North American stocks showed mixed performance, with notable changes including NVIDIA (+5.27%), TSMC (+4.81%), and Micron Technology (+7.10%) [10] NVIDIA's Acquisition and Technology - NVIDIA's acquisition of Groq includes all assets and technology licenses, excluding GroqCloud, which will operate independently. The LPU architecture is designed to eliminate memory bandwidth bottlenecks, achieving high performance in processing large language models [2][3][4] Future Product Launches - The H200 chip is anticipated to have a significant performance advantage, with a memory bandwidth of 4.8TB/s, and is expected to capture approximately 30% of the high-end AI chip market in China if not restricted [3][32] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: For overseas AI - Industrial Fulian, Huadian Co., Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology, and Shengyi Technology; For domestic AI - Cambricon, Chipone, Haiguang Information, SMIC, and Shenzhen South Circuit; For storage - Demingli, Jiangbolong, Zhaoyi Innovation, Jucheng Co., and Purun Co. [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's retail and wholesale business experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales year-on-year, aligning with previous performance guidance [1] - Retail performance continues to outperform wholesale, with manageable discount and inventory situations reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The company is expected to collaborate closely with its core brand, Nike, to navigate current market challenges, including foot traffic pressure and inventory issues [3] - The company is actively expanding into new business areas, with a focus on niche segments such as running and outdoor categories, which are anticipated to contribute to future growth [3] - The financial guidance for the year is conservative, with a cautious short-term outlook but a long-term optimistic perspective [3] Financial Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is projected at 27,013 million HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,286 million HKD, reflecting a 42% decrease year-on-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is estimated at 0.21 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.25 [6] - The company forecasts a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 1,285 million HKD for FY2026, 1,397 million HKD for FY2027, and 1,528 million HKD for FY2028, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.52, 13.36, and 12.21 respectively [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance, it is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels [2][3][11] - The underlying logic of coal supply constraints since July still exists, and there's no need to overly worry about a significant decline in coal prices. The stabilization point of coal prices is approaching [2][3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged. Coal prices have established a bottom and are on a new platform, high - quality coal enterprises maintain core asset attributes, and coal assets are relatively undervalued with potential for overall valuation improvement [3][11] - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the "15th Five - Year Plan". The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, with high certainty in the profitability and growth of high - quality coal companies [3][12] - The coal sector has a high - dividend safety margin when it adjusts downward and upward elasticity catalyzed by the expected increase in coal prices. It is recommended to focus on the current allocation opportunities in the coal sector [3][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Core Viewpoints and Key Concerns - **Core Viewpoints**: The coal economy is in the early stage of a new upward cycle. This week, the utilization rate of sample thermal coal and coking coal mine production capacity decreased. The daily coal consumption in inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces increased, while non - power coal demand decreased. Coal prices showed a mixed trend. Although the current market is weak, after New Year's Day, the coal consumption support is expected to strengthen. The coal allocation logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate at low levels [11] - **Key Investment Recommendations**: Focus on three types of companies: those with stable operations and performance, those that have fallen sharply previously with high elasticity, and those with special and scarce global metallurgical coal resources. Also, pay attention to other related companies [12] - **Recent Key Concerns**: In November 2025, the total social electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, US coal production increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and Russian coal production increased by 0.1% year - on - year [13] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 0.89% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 rose 1.95% to 4657.24 [14] - The thermal coal, coking coal, and coke sectors fell 1.24%, 0.81%, and 0.49% respectively [16] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Anyuan Coal Industry (6.42%), Huayang Co., Ltd. (5.01%), and Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd. (2.75%) [19] 3.3 Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of December 26, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 695.0 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 695.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 694.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [23] - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of December 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) was 677 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton week - on - week. At the production sites, prices in some areas rose or remained flat. International thermal coal FOB prices and some arrival prices fell [27] - **Coking Coal Price**: As of December 26, port and some production - site coking coal prices remained flat, while the arrival price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China rose 0.3 US dollars/ton week - on - week [29] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Injection Price**: As of December 26, the vehicle - board price of Jiaozuo anthracite remained flat, while the vehicle - board prices of some pulverized coal injection decreased [38] 3.4 Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 86.4%, down 4.0 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 84.21%, down 2.4 percentage points week - on - week [45] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of December 26, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal increased week - on - week [41] - **Coal - fired Power Daily Consumption and Inventory**: In both inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces, coal inventory increased, daily consumption increased, and the number of available days decreased [46] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of December 26, the Myspic composite steel price index fell, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke fell, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises decreased, the profit per ton of steel for blast furnaces increased, the iron - scrap price difference decreased, and the scrap consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises decreased [64][65] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of December 26, the prices of some chemical products showed different trends, the national cement price index fell, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry decreased [68][70] 3.5 Coal Inventory Status - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of December 26, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased, the 55 - port thermal coal inventory increased, and the production - site inventory increased [82] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of December 26, the production - site, port, coking enterprise, and steel mill coking coal inventories all increased [83] - **Coke Inventory**: As of December 26, the total coke inventory of coking plants decreased, the four - port total coke inventory increased, and the total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills increased [85] 3.6 Coal Transportation Status - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of December 24, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell. As of December 25, the average daily coal shipment volume on the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway decreased week - on - week [98] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio at Four Major Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of December 26, the inventory at the four major ports in the Bohai Rim decreased, the number of anchored ships remained unchanged, and the cargo - to - ship ratio decreased [96] 3.7 Weather Conditions - As of December 26, the Three Gorges outbound flow increased by 0.31% week - on - week [103] - In the next 10 days (December 28, 2025 - January 6, 2026), precipitation in some areas will be higher than normal, and after January 1, the average temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will turn 1 - 2°C lower than normal [103] - In the next 11 - 14 days (January 7 - 10, 2026), precipitation and temperature in different regions will show different trends [103] 3.8 Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies - **Valuation Table**: The report provides the valuation data of key listed companies, including net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, and PE from 2024A to 2027E [104] - **Key Announcements**: There are announcements from multiple companies, such as the share transfer of Jizhong Energy, the completion of the shareholding increase plan of Panjiang Co., Ltd., the acceptance of the application for asset acquisition by Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd., the guarantee provided by Kailuan Co., Ltd., and the maintenance of the credit rating of Meijin Energy [105][106][107] 3.9 This Week's Key Industry News - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% - 5% export tax on coal from 2026 [109] - In November 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 19.9% year - on - year, with thermal coal imports increasing by 7.0% month - on - month and coking coal imports increasing by 1.3% month - on - month [109] - 8000 tons of high - quality Mongolian coal arrived in Gannan [109] - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 17.1% year - on - year [109]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The domestic key refining project price difference is 2557.23 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +11.87 CNY/ton (+0.47%), while the international key refining project price difference is 1254.57 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of -43.45 CNY/ton (-3.35%) [2][3] - Brent crude oil's average price for the week ending December 26, 2025, is 61.73 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +2.74% [2][3] - The refining sector is affected by geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela and Russia, which have led to supply concerns and fluctuations in oil prices [2][15] - The chemical sector is experiencing weak demand, leading to a downward shift in chemical product prices [2][49] - Polyester production has seen a significant increase in sales volume, with downstream demand improving, which has positively impacted upstream prices [2][55] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude prices at 60.64 and 56.74 USD/barrel respectively, showing slight increases [2][15] - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6566.86, 7622.14, and 5716.07 CNY/ton respectively [2][15] Chemical Sector - The report notes a decline in demand for chemical products, with prices for polyethylene and EVA showing downward trends [2][55] - The average price for LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE is reported as 9000.00, 6329.29, and 8000.00 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding price differences from crude oil [2][55] Polyester & Nylon Sector - The polyester sector has seen a significant increase in production and sales, with a notable reduction in inventory levels and a slight increase in prices for polyester filament yarn [2][55] - The report indicates that the nylon filament prices remain stable, with slight improvements in price differences [2][55] Stock Performance - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Hengli Petrochemical (+11.01%) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (+12.12%) over the past week [2]