市场延续弱势，筑底预期趋强 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Title] 市场延续弱势，筑底预期趋强 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 ◆ 动力煤价格方面：本周秦港价格周环比下降，产地大同价格周环比下降。 港口动力煤：截至 12 月 20 日，秦皇岛港动力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价 711 元/吨，周环比下跌 42 元/吨。产地动力煤：截至 12 月 19 日，陕 西榆林动力块煤（Q6000）坑口价 760 元/吨，周环比下跌 10.0 元/吨； 内蒙古东胜大块精煤车板价（Q5500）623 元/吨，周环比持平;大同南郊 粘煤坑口价(含税)（Q5500）555 元/吨 ...

2 中国首批 L3 级自动驾驶车型获得准入许可，特斯拉在奥斯汀启 动无乘员 Robotaxi 路测 | 证券研究报告 | | | --- | --- | | 行业研究 | | | [Tabl 行业周报e_ReportType] | | | [Table_StockAndRank] 汽车 | | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Industry] 汽车周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 赵启政 汽车行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030004 邮箱：zhaoqizheng@cindasc.com [中国首批 Table_Title] L3 级自动驾驶车型获得准入许 可，特斯拉在奥斯汀启动无乘员 Robotaxi 路测 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资要点： 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The company, Micron, reported FY26Q1 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue of $13.643 billion, a year-over-year increase of 57% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 21% [3][25] - The gross margin was 57%, up 17 percentage points year-over-year and 11 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3][25] - Net income reached $5.482 billion, representing a 169% increase year-over-year and a 58% increase quarter-over-quarter [3][25] - The company expects FY26Q2 revenue to be between $18.7 billion and $19.1 billion, with a gross margin of approximately 68% [3][31] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) guidance for FY26 has been raised to $20 billion, up from the previous estimate of $18 billion [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY26Q1 was $13.643 billion, with a gross margin of 57% and net income of $5.482 billion [25] - DRAM revenue was $10.8 billion, up 69% year-over-year, while NAND revenue was $2.7 billion, up 22% year-over-year [3][25] - The cloud storage business saw revenue of $5.284 billion, doubling year-over-year [3][29] Business Segment Performance - The company reported strong performance across its business segments, with the following revenue contributions: - Cloud Memory (CMBU): $5.284 billion, gross margin of 66% [29] - Core Data (CDBU): $2.379 billion, gross margin of 51% [29] - Mobile and Client (MCBU): $4.255 billion, gross margin of 54% [29] - Automotive and Embedded (AEBU): $1.720 billion, gross margin of 45% [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has announced the acquisition of a 100% stake in a US-based home furnishings manufacturer for $0.32 billion, along with a $0.27 billion interest-free loan to help the target company repay its debts. The target company primarily engages in the manufacturing and sales of soft home furnishings, with projected revenues of $239 million and $188 million for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, respectively, and net losses of $3.9 million and $9.69 million (excluding goodwill amortization and bad debts, it is expected to achieve slight profitability) [1][2] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's production capacity in the US, mitigate future tariff and trade risks, and allow for immediate integration into the target company's existing customer supply chain of over 1,000 clients, thereby expanding market share. The company is anticipated to empower the target through improved raw material procurement, automation, and core component support, which may lead to sustained profitability optimization [2] - The company is expected to face slight operational pressure in Q4 due to intensified international trade friction and weak domestic demand. However, it is predicted that e-commerce will continue to perform well as the company increases its online resource investment and develops social media marketing strategies to enhance brand exposure and conversion rates [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for fiscal years 2026-2028 to be HKD 2.20 billion, HKD 2.30 billion, and HKD 2.49 billion, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 8.4X, 8.0X, and 7.4X [2] - Key financial indicators for the company include total revenue projections of HKD 16.90 billion for 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of -8%, and expected revenues of HKD 16.55 billion, HKD 18.93 billion, and HKD 20.30 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [4][5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies, as detailed in the Cinda derivatives research report series. Adjustments are made to the settings for continuous hedging[44] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to December 19, 2025[45] - **Spot Side**: Holding the total return index of the corresponding benchmark index[45] - **Futures Side**: - 70% of the funds are allocated to the spot side - The remaining 30% is used for shorting futures contracts of the same nominal principal (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000 index futures)[45] - After each rebalancing, the quantities of the spot and futures sides are recalculated based on the product's net value[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: - Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining time to maturity is less than two days - Close the position at the closing price on that day and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[45] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[45] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount for hedging, as described in the Cinda derivatives research report series[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to December 19, 2025[46] - **Spot Side**: Holding the total return index of the corresponding benchmark index[46] - **Futures Side**: - 70% of the funds are allocated to the spot side - The remaining 30% is used for shorting futures contracts of the same nominal principal (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000 index futures)[46] - After each rebalancing, the quantities of the spot and futures sides are recalculated based on the product's net value[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: - Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts on the day of rebalancing - Select the contract with the smallest basis discount for opening a position - Hold the same contract for eight trading days or until the remaining time to maturity is less than eight days, then select a new contract[46] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[46] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **CSI 500 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -3.42% (monthly), -2.58% (quarterly)[48] - Volatility: 3.79% (monthly), 4.69% (quarterly)[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.27% (monthly), -8.74% (quarterly)[48] - Net Value: 0.8886 (monthly), 0.9149 (quarterly)[48] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -6.60% (monthly), -3.91% (quarterly)[48] - **CSI 300 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 0.33% (monthly), 0.69% (quarterly)[53] - Volatility: 2.89% (monthly), 3.23% (quarterly)[53] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly)[53] - Net Value: 1.0112 (monthly), 1.0236 (quarterly)[53] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[53] - 2025 YTD Return: -1.21% (monthly), 0.37% (quarterly)[53] - **SSE 50 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.02% (monthly), 1.95% (quarterly)[57] - Volatility: 2.96% (monthly), 3.36% (quarterly)[57] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly)[57] - Net Value: 1.0350 (monthly), 1.0679 (quarterly)[57] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[57] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.42% (monthly), 1.85% (quarterly)[57] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -6.48% (monthly), -4.82% (quarterly)[61] - Volatility: 4.73% (monthly), 5.75% (quarterly)[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly)[61] - Net Value: 0.8319 (monthly), 0.8498 (quarterly)[61] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[61] - 2025 YTD Return: -12.98% (monthly), -7.87% (quarterly)[61] 2. Minimum Basis Strategy - **CSI 500 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -1.93%[48] - Volatility: 4.49%[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -8.75%[48] - Net Value: 0.9361[48] - Annual Turnover: 16.78[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -4.27%[48] - **CSI 300 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.09%[53] - Volatility: 3.00%[53] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[53] - Net Value: 1.0376[53] - Annual Turnover: 15.01[53] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.40%[53] - **SSE 50 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.58%[57] - Volatility: 2.97%[57] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[57] - Net Value: 1.0548[57] - Annual Turnover: 15.60[57] - 2025 YTD Return: 1.36%[57] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -4.42%[61] - Volatility: 5.50%[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[61] - Net Value: 0.8693[61] - Annual Turnover: 15.73[61] - 2025 YTD Return: -8.19%[61] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture different time horizons[63] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Based on overseas methodologies, adjusted for China's on-exchange options market[63] - Captures implied volatility from options pricing to reflect market sentiment[63] - **Factor Values** (as of December 19, 2025): - SSE 50 VIX: 15.85 - CSI 300 VIX: 17.10 - CSI 500 VIX: 26.35 - CSI 1000 VIX: 19.91[63] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market concerns about tail risks[70] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Analyzes the slope of implied volatility curves for options with different strike prices[70] - Higher SKEW values indicate increased demand for out-of-the-money options, reflecting heightened tail risk concerns[70] - **Factor Values** (as of December 19, 2025): - SSE 50 SKEW: 101.20 - CSI 300 SKEW: 101.08 - CSI 500 SKEW: 102.87 - CSI 1000 SKE

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 1.93%, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and iron ore also saw gains [2][11] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tightening supply situation, with high furnace capacity utilization at 84.9% and a slight decrease in production [3][25] - The report highlights the potential for value recovery in the steel sector, particularly for companies with high gross margins and strong cost control [4] Supply Summary - As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 84.9%, down by 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [3][25] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2655 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.65 thousand tons [3][25] - The total production of five major steel products is 6.918 million tons, down by 3.92 thousand tons week-on-week [3][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.353 million tons as of December 19, a decrease of 4.44 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 99 thousand tons, showing a slight increase of 0.10 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products is 9.065 million tons, down by 352.6 thousand tons week-on-week, but up 18.06% year-on-year [3][44] - Factory inventory stands at 3.883 million tons, down by 2.05 thousand tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [3][44] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,448.7 yuan/ton, up by 14.76 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][50] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 42 yuan/ton, which has doubled week-on-week [3][57] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,423 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.0 yuan/ton [3][57] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-end steel production [4] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, among others, which are positioned for growth and value recovery [4]

非银的弹性有望逐步增加 | 李畅 | 策略分析师 | | --- | --- | | | 执业编号：S1500523070001 | | 邮 | 箱： lichang@cindasc.com | ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com [非银的弹性有望逐步增加 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 核心结论：本周保险板块表现较强，直接影响因素是政策和风格。我们 认为金融板块的行情可能从银行轮动到非银。保险估值性价比更好，一 旦出现政策催化，率先表现出弹性。后续如果指数突破，券商也会有表 现。2021-2023 年非银 PB 下降速度远快于 ROE 下降速度，这一点和银行 较为类似，因此理论上也存在较大的估值修复空间。动态来看，由于非 银当前估值水平仍在长期趋势以下偏低位置。而非 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced fluctuations, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at $60.05 and $56.52 per barrel respectively as of December 19, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.75% and 1.60% from the previous week [2][9]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly discussions around the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, has influenced market dynamics, leading to a mixed impact on oil prices [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector showed resilience, with a 1.60% increase in the sector's performance compared to a 0.28% decline in the broader market (CSI 300) [10]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of December 19, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $60.05 per barrel, down $1.07 (-1.75%), while WTI crude futures settled at $56.52 per barrel, down $0.92 (-1.60%) [2][17]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude fell to $47.86 per barrel, down $1.77 (-3.57%) [2][17]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs increased to 375, with a net addition of 7 rigs, while floating drilling rigs rose to 131, with a net addition of 2 rigs [27]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.843 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week [44]. - The active rig count in the U.S. decreased to 406, down by 8 rigs [44]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.988 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.80%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous week [55]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stood at 837 million barrels, a decrease of 1.025 million barrels (-0.12%) from the previous week [62]. - Strategic oil reserves increased slightly to 412 million barrels, while commercial inventories decreased to 424 million barrels [62]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina, among others [3].

A500 成跨年行情布局焦点 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W51） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 8 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工点评报告 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W51)：A500 成跨年行情 布局焦点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 从整体仓位来看，截至 2025/12/19，主动权益型基金的平均仓位约为 86.92%。其中，普通股票型基金的平均仓位约为 90.44%（较上周下降 1.27pct），偏股混合型基金的平均仓位约为 87.89 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The average global crude oil inventory change for 2026 is projected to be +204.90 thousand barrels per day according to IEA, EIA, and OPEC [2] - For Q4 2025, the average inventory change is expected to be +162.53 thousand barrels per day, showing a revision from previous forecasts [2] - Global crude oil supply for 2025 is forecasted at 10617.36, 10607.84, and 10470.71 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase [2] - The global crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 10392.25, 10393.68, and 10513.66 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, reflecting a modest increase from 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil supply for 2026 to be 10865.02, 10742.59, and 10654.18 thousand barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2025 [2][35] - The Q4 2025 supply increase is projected at +414.30, +385.36, and +254.12 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [35] Oil Demand - The demand for 2026 is forecasted at 10478.51, 10516.87, and 10651.70 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a growth from 2025 [2][35] - The demand increase for Q4 2025 is expected to be +108.72, +130.72, and +152.22 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [4] Oil Prices - As of December 18, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices are reported at 59.82, 56.00, 47.94, and 65.49 USD per barrel respectively, with significant declines observed over the year [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent down by -21.22%, WTI by -23.42%, and Russian ESPO by -33.37% [9][10] Oil Inventory - The global crude oil inventory change for 2025 is projected at +225.11, +214.16, and -42.95 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with an average increase of +132.11 thousand barrels per day [26] - The U.S. total crude oil inventory as of December 12, 2025, stands at 83658.8 thousand barrels, reflecting a slight increase [19][20]