[Table_Title] 反内卷政策或带来双重拐点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 26 日 证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_A 解运亮 uthor 宏观首席 ] 分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 [➢Table_Summary] 反内卷从政策定调到逐步落地。本轮"反内卷"政策的起点可追溯至 2024 年 7 月中共中央政治局会议，该会议首次明确提出防止"内卷式" 恶性竞争；至 2024 年 12 月，政策重心从初期的风险预警逐步转向具体 整治行动。进入今年以来，"反内卷"不仅成为多场高层会议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Insights - The CXO industry is experiencing a recovery in market conditions, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics and a rebound in financing activities for innovative drugs [3][4] - The CDMO sector continues to show high growth potential, with leading companies improving their performance and expanding into emerging markets [5][6] - The CRO sector is approaching a turning point, with signs of demand recovery and improved order conditions [6][7] Summary by Sections CXO Industry Overview - The CXO industry operates on a "water seller" business model, closely tied to the financing of the biopharmaceutical sector. In the first eight months of 2025, overseas innovative drug financing reached $22.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of approximately 36%, while domestic innovative drug financing amounted to $7.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 89% [3][31] - The leading companies in the CXO sector are expected to enter an expansion phase as demand recovers, while smaller companies may face increased competition and exit the market [4][44] CDMO Sector - CDMO leading companies have begun to see marginal improvements in performance since Q4 2024, attributed to high overseas revenue and a unique business model that supports project pipeline growth [5][46] - The order situation for CDMO companies has improved significantly, with notable increases in backlogged orders for major players like WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics [49][50] - The CDMO business model is characterized by strong customer retention and project scalability, allowing for sustained growth despite challenges in new project signings [52] CRO Sector - The CRO sector is witnessing a divergence in performance among leading companies, with some starting to recover. The overall order situation has shown improvement, indicating a potential demand revival [6][22] - The price increase of experimental monkeys suggests a forthcoming recovery in preclinical CRO demand, highlighting the importance of resource availability for leading CRO companies [6][24] - The integration of AI in drug development processes is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with many domestic CRO leaders already adopting AI technologies [7][18] Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on key players in the CXO sector, including WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and others, which are positioned well for growth based on their business characteristics and market trends [8][10]

居民资金稳步流入 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 26 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 ——资金跟踪专题 证券研究报告 策略研究 [Table_ReportType] 策略专题 核心结论： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_Summary] ➢ 总览：据我们的不完全统计，截至 2025 年 9 月 23 日，A 股资金保持净 流入。截至 2025 年 9 月 23 日，A 股资金保持净流入，年度资金净流入 占自由流通市值之比为 3.2%。如果考虑到股东获得分红不完全用于再 投资，年度资金净流入(分红*1/2)占自由流通市值之比为 1.4%，资金 面仍有小幅净流入。另一方面，考虑到私募基金、保险、公募基金等资 金流入项可能存在重复计算，我们计算剔除私募基金与保险的资金净 流入汇总情况，资金净流入额占自由流通市值的比例约为 1.4%，资金 为小幅净流入状态。 ➢ 月度层面上，8 月资金面持续改善。2025 年 8 月 A 股月度资金净流入 4449 亿元，A 股月度资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has over 20 years of experience in the biological laboratory consumables sector, focusing on biological culture and liquid handling, with leading technical strength and a comprehensive product matrix. The company is expected to maintain rapid growth as its influence in overseas markets increases and both domestic industrial and research markets expand [3][4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Market - The company has entered the global biological laboratory consumables supply chain through an ODM model, establishing stable partnerships with international leaders like VWR and Thermo Fisher. The company has built a reputation for "reliable quality" and "outstanding cost performance," with overseas self-brand revenue increasing by 46.07% year-on-year in 2024, accounting for 18.89% of total revenue [4][14] 2. Domestic Market - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the opportunity for import substitution in the current international trade climate. As one of the earliest producers of disposable plastic consumables in China, the company is expanding its sales network and has established 12 offices domestically in 2024. The sales of its cell factory products are expected to grow by approximately 28.55% year-on-year [5][49][53] 3. Product High-Endization and Smart Manufacturing - The company is focused on developing high-end products such as liquid culture media and cell culture bags while optimizing production processes to reduce manufacturing costs. The establishment of an intelligent manufacturing base is expected to enhance order delivery efficiency and support global business needs [6][15] 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 652 million yuan, 772 million yuan, and 919 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.7%, 18.3%, and 19.1% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 98 million yuan, 118 million yuan, and 145 million yuan during the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 35.3%, 20.6%, and 23.2% [6][8][20]

Group 1: Report Summary - The total bond custody scale in August increased by 150.6 billion yuan month-on-month, with a slower growth compared to July. The custody increments of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds rose, while the net financing scale of local bonds and credit bonds declined, and commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment. The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly [4][7]. - In early August, the bond market oscillated and recovered, but after mid - August, sentiment weakened due to the continuous new highs of A - shares. Long - term interest rates were under pressure, while short - term rates were relatively resilient. From the perspective of institutional behavior, broad - based funds may have been affected by liability - side disturbances and reduced their bond holdings for the first time since February. Dealers also increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds. However, the承接 power of allocation - oriented investors was insufficient, which might have prevented interest rates from stabilizing in August. Notably, foreign institutions significantly narrowed their reduction of domestic bond holdings, possibly indicating an increase in their overall allocation of Chinese assets [4][9]. - Affected by the decline in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Among different institutions, commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, while non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9% [4][39]. Group 2: August Bond Custody Increment Analysis - Interest - rate bonds: The issuance scale of treasury bonds increased while the maturity scale decreased in August, with the custody increment rising by 38.42 billion yuan to 82.61 billion yuan. For policy financial bonds, the decline in the issuance scale was smaller than that in the maturity scale, and the custody increment increased by 22.23 billion yuan to 46.16 billion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds decreased significantly while the maturity scale increased, and the custody increment decreased by 31.51 billion yuan to 51.72 billion yuan [7]. - Credit bonds: The issuance scale of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds decreased while the maturity scale increased. The custody increment of medium - term notes decreased by 11.05 billion yuan to 10.44 billion yuan, and the custody scale of enterprise bonds decreased by 3.53 billion yuan. The issuance scale of short - term commercial paper decreased, and the custody volume changed from an increase of 1.06 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.61 billion yuan. The custody scale of PPN continued to decline by 1.53 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Other bonds: The issuance and maturity scales of interbank certificates of deposit both increased slightly, and the custody scale continued to decline by 35.56 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month. Commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment, with the custody volume changing from an increase of 36.9 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.64 billion yuan. The custody increment of non - bank bonds increased by 2.04 billion yuan to 5.12 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of credit - asset - backed securities narrowed by 0.58 billion yuan to 0.54 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior Analysis 3.1 Broad - based Funds - The bond custody scale of broad - based funds decreased by 19.17 billion yuan in August, mainly due to significant reductions in credit bonds and certificates of deposit, while slightly increasing holdings of interest - rate bonds. The reduction in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit, commercial bank bonds, and enterprise bonds increased, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes and financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased. They turned to reduce holdings of short - term commercial paper and increase holdings of policy financial bonds [12]. 3.2 Securities Companies - The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 190 million yuan in August, mainly due to a significant decrease in the reduction of treasury bonds, a slight decrease in the reduction of medium - term notes, an increase in the increase of policy financial bonds, and a turn to slightly increase holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream. The reduction of bond holdings weakened significantly [18]. 3.3 Insurance Companies - The bond custody increment of insurance companies decreased by 5.76 billion yuan to 3.96 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of local bonds and treasury bonds, a turn to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds and medium - term notes, and an increase in the reduction of commercial bank bonds. They turned to reduce bond holdings [20]. 3.4 Foreign Institutions - The decline in the bond custody volume of foreign institutions significantly narrowed by 20.41 billion yuan to 9.97 billion yuan in August, with a significant decrease in the reduction of interbank certificates of deposit, treasury bonds, and policy financial bonds. They generally continued to reduce bond holdings, but the reduction intensity weakened [25]. 3.5 Other Institutions - The bond custody increment of other institutions, including the central bank, increased by 9.58 billion yuan to 33.52 billion yuan in August, mainly due to the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase. They significantly increased holdings of local bonds, turned to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds, and slightly increased the reduction of treasury bonds. The increase in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit reached a new high since December 2022, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes declined from a historical high [28]. 3.6 Commercial Banks - The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 52.2 billion yuan to 120.01 billion yuan in August. They turned to reduce holdings of local bonds, possibly affected by the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase and the concentration on local bonds. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds increased significantly, while the increase in holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased significantly [31]. 3.7 Credit Unions - The bond custody increment of credit unions decreased by 5.92 billion yuan to 1.04 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds and a turn to reduce holdings of interbank certificates of deposit. They turned to reduce bond holdings [37]. Group 4: Bond Market Leverage Ratio Analysis - The bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, still significantly lower than the level before April 2024. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022. Among non - bank institutions, securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 12.8 percentage points to 215.1%, still at a relatively high level in the past three years. The leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 113.8%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022 [39].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gansu Energy is "Buy" [2]. Core Viewpoints - Gansu Energy is a leading provincial power platform under Gansu State-owned Assets, with diversified development in thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power [5][14]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 7,539.7 MW, with thermal power accounting for 4,000 MW, hydro power 1,700.2 MW, wind power 1,103.5 MW, and solar power 736 MW as of the first half of 2025 [5][14]. - The acquisition of a 66% stake in the Changle Power Plant significantly boosts revenue and profit, with projected revenues increasing to CNY 8.695 billion in 2024 and net profit to CNY 1.644 billion [5][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Gansu Energy as a Core Power Platform - Gansu Energy has transformed into a clean energy operator with a focus on thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power projects, supported by its major shareholder, Gansu Electric Power Investment Group [14]. - The company has seen steady growth in its clean energy segment, with revenues increasing from CNY 2.268 billion in 2019 to CNY 2.641 billion in 2023, representing a CAGR of 3.88% [20]. 2. Thermal Power - The Changle Power Plant is a key asset, with its first phase being the only supporting thermal power project for the "Long Electric into Hunan" initiative [31]. - The plant benefits from low fuel costs due to its proximity to Xinjiang coal sources, which are more stable and cheaper compared to other regions [31][39]. 3. Hydro Power - Gansu Energy's hydro power segment consists of small hydro plants, contributing to stable revenue and profit, with a total installed capacity of 1,700.2 MW [6][20]. - The company also holds a significant stake in Guotou Xiaoshanxia, which contributes approximately CNY 100 million annually to its investment income [6]. 4. New Energy - The company has a total of 1,103.5 MW of wind power and 736 MW of solar power installed, with significant growth potential in the future [8]. - Gansu Energy has secured approval for new energy projects totaling 6,100 MW, indicating strong future growth prospects [8]. 5. Potential Asset Injection - The parent company has additional thermal power assets totaling 4.67 GW, which could be injected into Gansu Energy, enhancing its capacity and profitability [8][9]. 6. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The forecasted net profits for Gansu Energy are CNY 1.971 billion, CNY 2.272 billion, and CNY 2.374 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.68, 9.27, and 8.87 [8][9].

Group 1 - The report highlights that from late June to August, while major indices accelerated upward, the banking sector experienced a decline, with an absolute return decrease of 0.39%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by approximately 16 percentage points, ranking last among all primary industries [2][8][10] - Historical cases, such as the electronics industry in Q4 2014, show that sectors can underperform during bull market acceleration phases due to style shifts, yet still strengthen in the later stages of the bull market [2][13][15] - The report identifies that if a leading sector in a bull market becomes the weakest performer during an acceleration phase, it is often due to changes in market style rather than weak earnings, suggesting potential for recovery in the later stages of the bull market [2][27][28] Group 2 - The banking sector from March to May 2007 was noted as one of the weakest performers during the latter half of the bull market's main upward wave, despite strong overall performance in the financial cycle bull market from 2005 to 2007 [28][34][41] - The communication sector also underperformed during the same period, with a 28% increase compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 53% rise, indicating a mismatch with market style and weak earnings expectations [43][44][48] - The banking sector from May to July 2020 showed weak performance during a bull market, with a 7.8% increase while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 21.4%, attributed to a shift towards small-cap growth stocks [50][55][61]

[Table_Industry] 医药生物行业周报 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 9 月 23 日 证券研究报告 科创主线不变，节前风格或倾向于低估值标的 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 医药生物 医药生物 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_A 唐爱金 uthor 医药首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin@cindasc.com 曹佳琳 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080011 邮 箱：caojialin@cindasc.com 章钟涛 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524030003 邮 箱：zhangzhongtao@cindasc.com 赵丹 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120002 邮 箱：zhaodan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fengmao Co., Ltd. (301459) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook based on strategic partnerships and growth projections [1]. Core Insights - The strategic partnership with Jianghuai Automobile aims to enhance product offerings in fluid pipeline solutions, leveraging Fengmao's R&D capabilities and Jianghuai's expertise in metal processing and lightweight materials [2]. - The collaboration is expected to establish a robust supply chain for high-end passenger vehicles, enhancing market penetration and customer resource access [2]. - The dual focus on automotive and data center liquid cooling markets is anticipated to drive growth, with significant opportunities arising from applying proven technologies in new sectors [2]. - Revenue projections for Fengmao Co., Ltd. are estimated at 1.09 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.79 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 186 million, 260 million, and 317 million yuan in the same years [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 802 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.8%. Projections indicate continued growth with 949 million yuan in 2024 and 1.09 billion yuan in 2025 [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 138 million yuan, with a growth rate of 35.1%, and is expected to grow to 186 million yuan in 2025 [3]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 30% over the forecast period, indicating consistent profitability [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.33 yuan in 2023 to 3.05 yuan by 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock of Tian Shili (600535) based on its potential growth from the newly approved indication for its drug, Pu You Ke [1]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of Pu You Ke for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke is expected to create a second growth curve for the company, leveraging its established commercial framework and clinical evidence [2][3]. - Acute ischemic stroke has a high incidence rate, and Pu You Ke is positioned to meet unmet clinical needs, offering a safer alternative to existing treatments like alteplase [4][5][6]. - The company is committed to innovation, with a robust pipeline of 83 projects, including several promising drugs that could enhance its market position [7][8]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 86.60 billion, 93.24 billion, and 100.81 billion respectively, with net profits of 11.96 billion, 13.31 billion, and 14.84 billion [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.80 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 0.99 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.62, 17.63, and 15.82 [10].