关税对指数可能是一次性冲击 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | --- | | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 邮 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [关税对指数可能是一次性冲击 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 核心结论：美国的对等关税政策，对全球经济政治格局影响较大，但对 A 股指数可能会是一次性冲击。A 股牛市是股市政策和估值周期、房地 产去杠杆周期、各行业去产能周期的共同作用的结果。出口的影响或 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Report's Core View - Currently in the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with the resonance of fundamentals and policies, it is a good time to allocate the coal sector at a low level. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the 15th Five - Year Plan, and coal prices are expected to remain high. The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, and the team continues to be bullish on coal and suggests bottom - up allocation [3][11][12] Summary According to the Directory I. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - **Core View**: Coal industry fundamentals show supply - demand balance with potential for price rebound. Investment logic remains unchanged, and coal assets are cost - effective. Suggest bottom - up allocation [11][12] - **Key Focus**: China's price governance mechanism aims to improve coal market price formation. India plans to increase coal production by 42% in the next 5 years [13] II. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 0.55% this week, outperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.37% to 3861.50. The top three performing industries were power utilities (2.53%), agriculture and animal husbandry (1.56%), and pharmaceuticals (1.15%) [14] - The thermal coal sector rose 1.08%, the coking coal sector rose 0.34%, and the coke sector fell 2.08% [17] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Huaihe Energy (5.41%), China Shenhua (2.99%), and China National Coal Group (2.77%) [20] III. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of March 28, the CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) comprehensive transaction price was 667 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of April 2, the Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) comprehensive average price index was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. As of April, the CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) annual long - term agreement price was 679 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - **Thermal Coal Price**: Port price in Qinhuangdao (Q5500) was flat at 667 yuan/ton. Some产地 prices increased. International FOB prices had mixed changes, and CIF prices also varied [29] - **Coking Coal Price**: Port prices in Jingtang and Lianyungang were flat. Some产地 prices increased, and the Australian coking coal CIF price was flat but down 23.26% year - on - year [31] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: The Jiaozuo anthracite car - loading price was flat, while some pulverized coal prices decreased [39] IV. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Mine Capacity Utilization**: The sample thermal coal mine capacity utilization rate was 94.1%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week, and the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate was 86.32%, up 1.6 percentage points week - on - week [46] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: The price difference for 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal decreased week - on - week [42] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal consumption increased 23.57% week - on - week, and inventory decreased 1.31%. Coastal 8 provinces' coal consumption increased 3.22% week - on - week, and inventory increased 1.17% [47] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: The Myspic composite steel price index decreased, while the blast furnace operation rate, ton - steel profit, and other indicators showed various changes [60][61][63] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: Urea prices in some regions increased, and some chemical product price indices decreased, while the cement price index increased. The cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, and the float glass operation rate decreased slightly [65][67] V. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory decreased to 670.0 million tons, 55 - port thermal coal inventory increased to 7228.3 million tons, and the 462 - sample mine thermal coal inventory decreased to 256.5 million tons [80] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Production - area inventory decreased to 339.7 million tons, port inventory decreased to 347.6 million tons, and coking enterprise and steel mill inventories increased [81] - **Coke Inventory**: Coking enterprise inventory decreased, port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory increased [83] VI. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1489.0 points, down 113.0 points week - on - week. The average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway decreased to 100.0 million tons [96] - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Ports in the Bohai Rim**: The inventory of four ports was 1666.1 million tons, the number of anchored ships was 54, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 27.7, up 2.97 week - on - week [94] VII. Weather Situation - As of April 3, the Three Gorges出库流量 was 9350 cubic meters per second, down 10.95% week - on - week. In the next 10 days, precipitation in different regions showed different trends, and the average temperature in most parts of the country was expected to be higher than normal [101] VIII. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing price, net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratio of multiple listed coal companies from 2023 to 2026 [102] - **Key Announcements**: Multiple companies such as Lanhua Sci & Tech, Meijin Energy, and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Industry made announcements regarding resource acquisition, loan extension, and convertible bond conversion [103][104][105]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Expressway (600350) is "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a revenue of 28.494 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.34%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.07% to 3.196 billion yuan [2][3] - The toll revenue slightly declined by 5.95% to 9.928 billion yuan, while the traffic volume increased by 3.23% to 186.9 million vehicles [3] - The core road asset expansion is nearing completion, which is expected to enhance traffic volume and fee rates, potentially leading to an upward shift in profit margins [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.593 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.16% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 8.08% to 681 million yuan [2][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 yuan per share, maintaining the same level as in 2023, with a total distribution of 2.038 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 63.76% [6][7] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.346 billion yuan, 3.630 billion yuan, and 3.871 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.1, 13.9, and 13.1 [8]

《关于完善价格治理机制的意见》发布，1-2 月我国天然气表观消费量同比下降 3.4% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 请阅读最后 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 505.95 billion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, and potentially reach 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [2] - The recent issuance of the world's first operational certificate for a manned drone by Hefei Heying Aviation marks a significant step towards the commercialization of China's low-altitude economy [1][2] - The report highlights that low-altitude tourism is likely to be the first sector to benefit from this development, with various regions actively planning take-off and landing points [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The low-altitude economy is seen as a vast blue ocean, with tourism scenarios expected to commercialize first [2] - The government has emphasized the need to accelerate the development of low-altitude tourism and related sectors [2] Company Focus - Companies such as Xiyu Tourism and Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism are leading in low-altitude initiatives [3] - Xiyu Tourism has established a joint venture with EHang to develop low-altitude tourism projects, planning to operate at least 120 eVTOLs within five years [3] - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism has formed a low-altitude service company and aims to purchase 50 eVTOLs for its projects, with successful test flights already conducted [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the automotive sector, including the establishment of a joint venture between Seres and Beihang University focusing on intelligent robotics [3][7] - The report indicates that the sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to reach 17 million units in 2025, with a market share of nearly 58% for NEVs in the domestic passenger vehicle market [6][7] - The report notes that the automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards electric and intelligent vehicles, driven by favorable policies and increasing demand [4][6] Industry News - Four departments have announced that nine cities, including Shanghai, will be part of the first batch of pilot projects for vehicle-network interaction [3][6] - BYD has invested nearly 400 million yuan to expand its battery production in Xi'an, acquiring land for battery manufacturing [3][6] - Japanese automakers reported a total sales volume of approximately 1.498 million vehicles in the U.S. for Q1 2025, marking a 4.5% increase year-on-year [3][6] - Anhui Province has released guidelines for the scrapping and updating of old operational trucks, offering subsidies of up to 45,000 yuan for heavy-duty trucks [3][6] - Great Wall Motors' pickup sales exceeded 50,000 units in Q1 2025, with a 16.2% year-on-year increase [3][6] - Volkswagen plans to unveil three new concept cars at the Shanghai Auto Show [3][6] - Shenzhen has issued the first L4 level autonomous driving micro-truck testing license in the country [3][7] - The Ministry of Transport has released standards for the after-sales service of NEVs and energy consumption limits for trucks [7] - The report mentions that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to address "involution" competition in the automotive industry [7] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 3.54% compared to a 1.3% drop in the CSI 300 index [4][8] - The report suggests that major automakers are accelerating the electrification and intelligence of their vehicles, with a stable growth outlook for industry sales [4][6] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, and others in the electric vehicle segment, as well as commercial vehicle manufacturers like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Expressway (600350) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a revenue of 28.494 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.07% to 3.196 billion yuan [2][3] - The toll revenue slightly declined by 5.95% to 9.928 billion yuan, despite a 3.23% increase in traffic volume to 186.9 million vehicles [3] - The core road asset expansion is nearing completion, which is expected to enhance traffic volume and fee rates, potentially leading to an upward shift in profit margins [5][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.593 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.16% year-on-year, with a net profit of 681 million yuan, an increase of 8.08% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 yuan per share for 2024, maintaining the same level as in 2023, with a total distribution of 2.038 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 63.76% [6][7] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.346 billion yuan, 3.630 billion yuan, and 3.871 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.1, 13.9, and 13.1 [8] Segment Analysis - Toll revenue from the road and bridge operations was 9.928 billion yuan, with a notable decline in revenue from the Jiqing Expressway, which was approximately 3.603 billion yuan, down 12.12% year-on-year [3] - Capital operations showed a strong performance, with Qilu Expressway generating 7.022 billion yuan in revenue, up 25.19%, while the Rail Transit Group and Information Group also reported revenue increases [3] - The cost structure of toll roads indicates a depreciation and amortization cost of approximately 2.899 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.67%, while maintenance costs rose by 22.44% to 882 million yuan [4]

行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：成本 与需求双弱，炼化产品价格价差有所下跌 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 本期内容提要： 证券研究报告 ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 4 月 4 日当周，国内重点大炼化 项目价差为 2565.13 元/吨，环比变化+288.88 元/吨（+12.69%）；国外 重点大炼化项目价差为 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utilities industry is "Positive" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After multiple rounds of power supply - demand contradictions in China, the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value re - evaluation. Coal - fired power's peak - shaving value is prominent, and with the advancement of power market reform, electricity prices are likely to rise slightly. The cost of coal - fired power enterprises is expected to be controllable. The performance of power operators is expected to improve significantly. For the natural gas industry, with the decline of upstream gas prices and the recovery of domestic consumption, the city - gas business may achieve stable gross margins and high growth in gas sales volume [4][83][84] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Performance - As of April 3, the utilities sector rose 2.5% this week, outperforming the market. The power sector rose 2.81%, while the gas sector fell 0.04%. Among sub - sectors, the thermal power generation sector rose 3.61%, the hydropower generation sector rose 2.92%, the nuclear power generation rose 1.16%, the thermal service rose 1.71%, the comprehensive power service rose 3.64%, and the photovoltaic power generation rose 0.74% [11][13] 3.2 Power Industry Data Tracking 3.2.1 Thermal Coal Prices - In April, the annual long - term contract price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) was 667 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton. As of April 3, the market price of Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port was flat week - on - week. Overseas, the Newcastle NEWC5500 thermal coal FOB spot price decreased week - on - week, while the ARA6000 thermal coal spot price increased. The Newcastle NEWC index price rose week - on - week. The Indonesian coal (Q5500) storage pick - up price at Guangzhou Port decreased, and the Australian coal (Q5500) price increased [21][23] 3.2.2 Thermal Coal Inventory and Power Plant Daily Consumption - As of April 3, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 300,000 tons week - on - week. As of April 2, the coal inventory of 17 inland provinces decreased by 1.31% week - on - week, and the daily consumption increased by 23.57%. The available days decreased by 5.5 days. The coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces increased by 1.17% week - on - week, the daily consumption increased by 3.22%, and the available days decreased by 0.4 days [28][30] 3.2.3 Hydropower Inflow - As of April 3, the Three Gorges outflow was 9,350 cubic meters per second, an increase of 38.72% year - on - year and a decrease of 10.10% week - on - week [46] 3.2.4 Key Power Market Transaction Electricity Prices - As of March 29, the weekly average price of the Guangdong power day - ahead spot market increased by 12.23% week - on - week and decreased by 23.7% year - on - year. The weekly average price of the real - time spot market increased by 18.40% week - on - week and decreased by 23.4% year - on - year. As of March 14, the weekly average price of the Shanxi power day - ahead spot market decreased by 28.79% week - on - week and increased by 7.4% year - on - year. The real - time spot market price decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. As of April 4, the weekly average price of the Shandong power day - ahead spot market decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, and the real - time spot market price also decreased [47][56][57] 3.3 Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking 3.3.1 Domestic and International Natural Gas Prices - As of April 3, the national index of LNG ex - factory prices at the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center increased year - on - year and week - on - week. International natural gas prices in three major markets decreased week - on - week. The European TTF spot price, the US HH spot price, and the Chinese DES spot price all declined [53][58] 3.3.2 EU Natural Gas Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In the 12th week of 2025, the EU's natural gas supply decreased year - on - year and week - on - week. The LNG supply decreased week - on - week, and the imported pipeline gas decreased year - on - year and week - on - week. The EU's natural gas inventory decreased week - on - week. The estimated consumption increased year - on - year and week - on - week [63][70][72] 3.3.3 Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand - From January to February 2025, the domestic natural gas apparent consumption decreased year - on - year. In February 2025, the domestic natural gas production increased year - on - year, the LNG import volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the PNG import volume increased year - on - year and month - on - month [74][75] 3.4 This Week's Industry News - For the power industry, the CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", emphasizing the deepening of electricity price marketization reform. The National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early - Warning Center announced the new energy grid - connected consumption situation in February 2025. For the natural gas industry, the National Development and Reform Commission reported that the national natural gas apparent consumption from January to February 2025 decreased by 3.4% year - on - year [78][79] 3.5 This Week's Important Announcements - China National Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. announced its power generation in the first quarter of 2025. Longyuan Power Group Co., Ltd. released its 2024 annual report. Yue Dian Power A released its 2024 annual report. Gansu Energy released its 2024 annual report. Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. released its 2024 annual report [80][81][82] 3.6 Investment Recommendations and Valuation Tables - For the power sector, it is recommended to focus on national coal - fired power leaders, regional leaders in power - supply - tight areas, hydropower operators, coal - fired power equipment manufacturers, and flexibility - transformation technology companies. For the natural gas sector, companies such as ENN Energy and Guanghui Energy are expected to benefit [4][83][84]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：特朗普关税大棒落地 [Table_Title，油价 ] 走跌 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2025 年 4 月 4 日当周，油价整体下跌。本周，前 半周，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊表示，如果美国就其总统特朗普的"轰 炸威胁"采取行动，那么"美国将受到强烈打击"，地缘风险推动油 价上行；后半周，特朗普签 ...