非银行金融 行业周报（20250331-20250406） 领先大市-A(维持) 监管持续细化业务办法，关注极端事件冲击下波动 2025 年 4 月 8 日 行业研究/行业周报 非银行金融行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证非银行金融】券商业绩显著改善， 鼓 励 耐 心 资 本 入 市 - 行 业 周 报 （20250324-20250330）： 2025.4.1 【山证非银行金融】行业并购再推进， 关 注 券 商 业 绩 披 露 - 行 业 周 报 （20250317-20250323）： 2025.3.25 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 孙田田 执业登记编码：S0760518030001 电话：0351-8686900 邮箱：suntiantian@sxzq.com 刘丽 执业登记编码：S0760511050001 电话：0351--8686985 邮箱：liuli2@sxzq.com 研究助理： 李明阳 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 灰犀牛冲击来袭，金融市场不确定性增加。针对美国对等关税 冲击，我国率先宣布反制措施，受关税"灰犀牛"冲击影响，全球 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-bank financial industry [1][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing uncertainty in the financial market due to the "gray rhino" impact from U.S. tariffs, leading to a global asset value reassessment and heightened market volatility. However, China's monetary policy tools, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, have sufficient room for adjustment, and fiscal policy aims to increase spending intensity and speed, which is expected to support market stability [3][10]. - Regulatory measures are being refined, particularly regarding the management of securities investment fund custody, which includes enhancing entry thresholds, strengthening operational compliance, and ensuring risk isolation. This regulatory approach aims to optimize the custody industry ecosystem and protect investor interests [4][10][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Suggestions - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on the financial market, indicating that while there is potential for market disturbances, the first quarter's new fund issuance and equity financing have improved year-on-year, providing a solid foundation for industry performance [10]. 2. Market Review - During the week of March 31 to April 6, major indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.28%, the CSI 300 down 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.95%. The non-bank financial index fell by 1.31%, ranking 23rd among 31 sectors [11][12]. 3. Key Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the average daily trading volume in A-shares was 1.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.84% week-on-week. The margin trading balance was 1.90 trillion yuan, down 1.01% [11][15]. 4. Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The report outlines the recent revisions to the Securities Investment Fund Custody Business Management Measures, emphasizing the need for compliance and risk management in the custody sector. It also mentions the importance of supporting the development of the private economy and enhancing the capital market's inclusivity and adaptability [29]. 5. Key Announcements from Listed Companies - Dongxing Securities reported a revenue of 9.37 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.544 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 97.89% and 88.39%, respectively [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 15% [1][11]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue reported at 6.589 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.68% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 469 million yuan, down 44.10% year-on-year [1][3]. - The decline in revenue was primarily driven by a negative operating leverage effect, with online channels showing growth while offline direct and distribution channels saw revenue declines. The online channel revenue grew by 16.57% to 1.129 billion yuan, accounting for 17.14% of total revenue [3][4]. - The company plans to strengthen brand building and enhance operational efficiency in offline channels while focusing on online platforms like Xiaohongshu to maintain competitive advantages [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 75.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net profit margin fell to 7.1%, down 5.0 percentage points year-on-year due to increased sales and management expense ratios [5][10]. - The company’s inventory increased by 36.4% year-on-year, reaching 1.572 billion yuan by the end of 2024. The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 36.51% to 996 million yuan [5][10]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.89, 1.00, and 1.09 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.9, 7.0, and 6.4 times [9][10]. Revenue Breakdown - By brand, La Koradior achieved revenue of 2.156 billion yuan, a decline of 9.68%, while NEXY.CO saw a slight increase of 0.79% to 1.012 billion yuan. The online channel's strong performance was attributed to platforms like Vipshop and Douyin [4][5]. - The offline channels reported a revenue of 5.172 billion yuan, down 6.97% year-on-year, while the distribution channel revenue fell by 25.17% to 287 million yuan [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is facing a challenging domestic consumption environment, with net store closures in direct and distribution channels. However, the rapid growth of online channels presents a potential for recovery and performance elasticity as the market stabilizes [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6-12 months [1][12]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 4.68% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 6.589 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders fell significantly by 44.10% to 469 million yuan, primarily due to increased sales and management expenses [2][4]. - The online sales channel showed strong growth, contributing to the overall revenue despite declines in offline direct and distribution channels. Online revenue increased by 16.57% to 1.129 billion yuan, accounting for 17.14% of total revenue [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance brand value and operational efficiency in physical stores while focusing on online platforms like Xiaohongshu to maintain competitive advantages [10]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's gross margin improved to 75.4%, up by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net profit margin decreased to 7.1%, down by 5.0 percentage points due to rising expense ratios [4][11]. - The company reported a significant increase in inventory, which rose by 36.4% to 1.572 billion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating potential challenges in inventory management [4][11]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.89 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.09 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.9, 7.0, and 6.4 [10][11]. - Revenue is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with projections of 6.962 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [11][14]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 6.800 HKD, with a market capitalization of 4.788 billion HKD [8]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date high of 13.420 HKD and a low of 6.560 HKD, indicating significant volatility [8]. Brand Performance - The high-end brand La Koradior achieved over 10% revenue growth, while other brands like NEXY.CO and ELSEWHERE showed mixed results, with some brands experiencing declines [3][4]. - The company operates 1,444 direct stores and 395 distribution stores, with a net decrease in both types of stores over the year [3]. Conclusion - The report suggests that despite the current challenges in the domestic consumption environment, the company's focus on online growth and brand enhancement may provide resilience and potential for recovery in the coming years [5][10].

市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,096.58 | -7.34 | | 深证成指 | | 9,364.50 | -9.66 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,589.44 | -7.05 | | 中小板指 | | 5,930.53 | -8.10 | | 创业板指 | | 1,807.21 | -12.50 | | 科创 50 | | 924.17 | -9.22 | 资料来源：最闻 研究早观点 2025 年 4 月 8 日 星期二 【山证煤炭】行业周报（20250331-20250404）：-国际关税争端加剧，关注 提振内需预期 【公司评论】中控技术(688777.SH)：中控技术（688777.SH）：海外市场加 速拓展，工业 AI 进展迅速 【固定收益】3 月固定收益月报-震荡调整结束，债市仍有上涨空间 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Aishuo Co., Longi Green Energy, and others, with ratings ranging from A to B [1][8]. Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing structural price increases in the supply chain, influenced by recent events such as the earthquake in Myanmar affecting silicon wafer production [1][6]. - The utilization rate of photovoltaic (PV) systems in February 2025 was reported at 93.4%, indicating strong performance in the sector [2][3]. - The Chinese government is enhancing policies for renewable energy pricing, aiming to optimize market mechanisms for electricity transactions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Key stocks recommended for investment include Aishuo Co. and Longi Green Energy for new technology, and companies like Fulete and Hongdian Dongci for supply-side improvements [1][8]. Market Performance - The report notes that the solar industry has shown resilience, with a significant number of new PV projects being registered, totaling 4,000 in February 2025 [2][3]. Price Tracking - The average price of polysilicon remains stable at 40.0 CNY/kg, while silicon wafer prices have seen slight increases due to supply chain disruptions [4][6][7]. - The average price for M10 solar cells is reported at 0.31 CNY/W, with expectations for further price increases due to rising demand [7]. Policy Developments - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines for renewable energy green power certificate issuance, which will impact the market dynamics for renewable energy projects [3].

固定收益 3 月固定收益月报 震荡调整结束，债市仍有上涨空间 2025 年 4 月 7 日 固定收益研究/定期报告 资金面边际转松，利率有望修复下行-2 月固定收益月报 2025.3.7 中短端修复可期，长端待政策指引-1 月 固定收益月报 2025.2.11 云水翻腾，债牛未尽-2025 年利率债投资 策略 2025.1.22 分析师： 王冠军 执业登记编码：S0760524040001 邮箱：wangguanjun@sxzq.com 研究助理： 王纯 邮箱：wangchun1@sxzq.com 投资要点： 相关报告： 观点展望 根据我们的利率互换降息模型，3 月利率互换曲线隐含的一年内政策利率的 降息幅度预期仍在 20-30bp，降息预期与 2 月相比变化不大，一定意义上表 明利率互换市场对未来降息仍保持较为稳定的预期，由此推断十年国债的 中枢在 1.7-1.8%是比较合理的水平。 3 月上旬，在政策变动、权益市场走强、部分资金获利了结等多重因素影响 下，债市出现较大回调，10Y/30Y 国债收益率出现明显上升；而在 3 月下 旬，长端利率的定价修复叠加央行的流动性投入，10/30Y 国债收益率有所 回落 ...

煤炭 行业周报（20250331-20250404） 同步大市-A(维持) 国际关税争端加剧，关注提振内需预期 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 焦、钢产业链：焦炭价格止跌，关注需求恢复。本周黑色产业链下游有 所恢复，"金三银四"需求旺季临近，但在关税政策影响下，外需预期偏弱， 焦炭价格仍显弱势，但宏观预期有望继续落地，外贸不振或提高内需刺激预 期，基建、地产施工高峰期临近，钢材需求刚性仍存，叠加低利润率下焦炭 供给收缩预期，而焦煤价格相对仍强势，成本支撑下焦炭价格预计下降空间 不大。截至 4 月 3 日，天津港一级冶金焦均价 1480 元/吨，周持平。中国螺 纹钢平均价格 3354 元/吨，周变化-0.36%。 煤炭运输：淡季需求减弱，沿海煤炭运价降低。本周电煤需求较弱，前 期集中拉运后，煤炭补库需求减弱，运输市场转淡，沿海煤炭运价继续回落。 截止 4 月 3 日，中国沿海煤炭运价指数 704.42 点，周变化-6.28%。4 月 4 日，环渤海四港货船比 30.9，周变化+43.06%。 煤炭板块行情回顾 本 ...

煤炭 行业周报（20250331-20250404） 同步大市-A(维持) 国际关税争端加剧，关注提振内需预期 2025 年 4 月 7 日 行业研究/行业周报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 动态数据跟踪 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 前 2 月进口增速边际放缓 2025.4.2 动力煤：供需转淡，内贸煤价格趋稳。本周产地煤矿生产维持正常水平。 需求方面，气候偏暖，居民用电进入淡季，电厂整体负荷季节性回落，电煤 日耗较弱；下游复工及基建仍有待提高，工业原料用煤需求维持刚需；港口 疏港推进，本周煤炭调入小于调出，港口煤炭库存继续降低，综合影响下， 港口煤价继续小幅下行。展望二季度，关税不确定性影响外需，国内稳经济 政策或将继续出台，非电用煤需求预计继续恢复增长；同时，海外煤价企稳， 煤炭关税、贸易政策剧变，预计国内进口煤仍存变数，2025 年国内动力煤价 格中枢继续下降空间不大。截至 4 月 3 日，环渤海动力煤现货参考价 676 元 /吨，周持平；广州港山西优混 720 元/吨，周持平；欧洲三港 Q6000 动力煤 760.28 元/吨，周变化+5.67%。4 月 3 ...

研究早观点 2025 年 4 月 7 日 星期一 市场走势 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,342.01 | -0.24 | | 深证成指 | | 10,365.73 | -1.40 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,861.50 | -0.59 | | 中小板指 | | 6,453.32 | -1.62 | | 创业板指 | | 2,065.40 | -1.86 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,018.07 | -0.46 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【宏观策略】特朗普对等关税对我国经济和行业的影响及应对 【山证军工】中航西飞（000768.SZ）2024 年报点评-圆满完成经营计划， 把握民机发展机遇 资料来源：最闻 【山证专精特新】龙图光罩（688721.SH）2024 年报点评-产能瓶颈使 2024 年业绩增速放缓，静待珠海新工厂产能释放 国内市场主要指数 【行业评论】【山西 ...