研究早观点 2025 年 3 月 6 日 星期四 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,341.96 | 0.53 | | 深证成指 | 10,709.46 | 0.28 | | 沪深 300 | 3,902.57 | 0.45 | | 中小板指 | 6,634.77 | 0.28 | | 创业板指 | 2,190.36 | 0.01 | | 科创 50 | 1,083.82 | 0.29 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 【衍生品研究】密卫转债投资价值分析-危化品物流龙头，仓储区位和 资质壁垒凸显 【衍生品研究】台 21 转债投资价值分析-优秀正股的偏债型转债，转 股溢价率偏高 【行业评论】【山证电新】20250305 光伏产业链价格跟踪 【今日要点】 【衍生品研究】密卫转 ...

——2025 年政府工作报告解读 2025 年 3 月 6 日 宏观研究/政策点评 投资要点： 山证策略团队 2025 年《政府工作报告》直面经济社会发展中的不稳定因素，保持了 经济社会发展目标的稳定可持续，从目标、总体要求、经济循环、宏观政策、 改革开放、风险化解等多个方面体现了高质量、稳民生、强信心、增强经济 内生动能，确保高质量完成"十四五"规划目标任务，为实现 "十五五" 良好开局打牢基础。 第一，总体要求更加全面，进一步推动经济回升向好。2025 年，国际 局势复杂多变，国内有效需求不足，特别是消费不振。在此背景下，要推动 经济持续回升向好，必然要求经济社会发展总体要求更加全面。一是更强调 统筹发展和安全，要防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击，要稳住楼市股市； 二是扩大内需放到了更加重要的地位。三是宏观政策强调"积极"，也注重 "有为"。四是进一步稳定预期、激发活力。 第二，经济发展目标稳定，强化信心。2025 年我国 GDP 增长目标依然 定在 5%左右，居民消费价格涨幅 2%左右，城镇新增就业人数 1200 万人以 上。尽管居民消费价格涨幅目标较 2024 年回落了 1 个百分点，但要看到 2023 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an AA- rating to the convertible bond of the company, with a bond balance of 872 million yuan as of March 4, 2025, and a closing price of 119.82 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company, 密尔克卫 (603713.SH), is a leading specialized chemical supply chain service provider in China, focusing on hazardous chemical logistics. The total market capitalization is 7.805 billion yuan, with a TTM PE of 15.0x [2]. - The hazardous chemical logistics market is expected to continue growing, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.16% from 2015 to 2023, projected to reach 2.85 trillion yuan by 2025. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated increase in industry concentration [3]. - The company has established a robust logistics network with over 600,000 square meters of hazardous chemical warehouses, primarily located in key chemical parks. The regulatory environment makes it difficult for competitors to replicate these resources, creating a significant competitive moat [4]. - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in revenue and 21.7% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024. Forecasts indicate a net profit growth of 18.33% and 15.97% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The convertible bond is currently priced at a reasonable level, with its absolute price not high and a small bond balance. The bond is approaching its put-back period, increasing the likelihood of a downward adjustment in the future [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of AA to the Tai 21 convertible bond (113638.SH) [1] Core Insights - The Tai 21 convertible bond is characterized by a high conversion premium of 71.26% and a pure bond premium of 6.54%, with a yield to maturity (YTM) of -0.007% [1] - The underlying stock, Taihua New Materials (603055.SH), has a total market capitalization of 9.856 billion and a TTM PE ratio of 13.3x, positioning it as a leader in the nylon production industry in China [2] - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain in nylon production, focusing on high-end products and maintaining stable partnerships with major brands [3] - The company has demonstrated strong growth, with a revenue increase of 47.46% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 89.19% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - The report suggests that the reasonable valuation for the Tai 21 convertible bond is between 121-128 yuan, assuming the underlying stock price remains unchanged [5] Summary by Sections Convertible Bond Analysis - The Tai 21 convertible bond has a total balance of 600 million yuan, accounting for 99.96% of the total issuance, with a remaining term of 2.82 years [1] - The bond is expected to enter a redemption period soon, and there is a possibility of future adjustments [4] Underlying Stock Overview - Taihua New Materials has a well-established production base across three locations in China, with a focus on differentiated nylon products [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the completion of its new production facilities, which will enhance its production capacity and operational efficiency [4] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 700-760 million yuan for the full year of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.86% to 69.22% [4]

Market Overview - The overall market experienced a decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.72% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 3.46% [8] - The semiconductor sector faced significant losses, with the Wind Semiconductor Index decreasing by 3.25% [8] Industry Insights - Apple announced a substantial investment of $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, focusing on expanding domestic operations, including the establishment of an AI server manufacturing facility in Houston [8] - Nvidia reported a 114% year-over-year increase in annual revenue, reaching $130.5 billion, with data center revenue growing by 142% to a record $115.2 billion [8] - Xiaomi launched the Xiaomi 15 Ultra and SU7 Ultra, showcasing high performance and competitive pricing, which is expected to stimulate market enthusiasm [8] Solar Energy Sector - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) forecasts that China will add 215-255 GW of new solar capacity in 2025, with a general global expectation of 531-583 GW [12] - The National Energy Administration aims for non-fossil energy to account for approximately 20% of total energy consumption by 2025 [12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that major photovoltaic products will continue to see increased production in 2024, with significant growth in polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on supply chain companies related to Apple and Huawei, as well as those involved in AI technology and high-performance chips [11] - In the solar sector, companies like Aiko Solar and LONGi Green Energy are recommended due to their technological advancements and market positioning [14] - For the coal industry, the report highlights the importance of long-term contracts and suggests monitoring companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Energy for stable dividends and growth potential [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the electronic industry [1]. Core Insights - The overall market experienced a decline during the week of February 24-28, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.72%, Shenzhen Component Index by 3.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.87%. The semiconductor sector also faced declines, with the Wind Semiconductor Index dropping by 3.25% [4][12]. - Key developments include Apple's announcement of a $500 billion investment in the U.S. over the next four years, aimed at expanding domestic operations and enhancing AI capabilities. This investment is expected to create approximately 20,000 jobs primarily in R&D and AI [5][8]. - Nvidia reported a 114% increase in annual revenue, reaching $130.5 billion, with data center revenue growing by 142% to a record $115.2 billion, indicating strong demand for AI-related technologies [5][8]. Market Overview - The market saw significant fluctuations, with the semiconductor materials sector showing a slight increase of 0.42%, while digital chip design and semiconductor equipment sectors declined by 2.14% and 3.45%, respectively [4][12]. - Notable stock performances included a 30% increase for Aojie Technology-U and a 27.41% rise for ChipSource, while Shengyi Electronics saw a decline of 24.29% [4][21]. Industry News - Apple is set to build an AI server manufacturing facility in Houston and establish a supplier academy in Michigan, marking its largest commitment to U.S. operations to date [5][8]. - Xiaomi launched the Xiaomi 15 Ultra and SU7 Ultra, showcasing high performance and competitive pricing, which is expected to drive demand in the consumer electronics sector [5][8]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of AI technology driving demand for high-performance chips and advanced packaging solutions, as well as the potential for hardware upgrades and replacement cycles in the market [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating expected growth exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [9][53]. Core Insights - Apple is significantly increasing its investment in the U.S. technology sector, committing $500 billion over the next four years to expand domestic operations, including AI server manufacturing [10][11]. - Xiaomi's launch of the SU7 Ultra and 15 Ultra models showcases high performance and competitive pricing, which is expected to drive demand in the consumer electronics sector [11]. - NVIDIA's financial performance continues to impress, with a 114% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $130.5 billion, driven by strong demand for AI-related products and services [11][10]. Market Overview - The overall market experienced a decline during the week of February 24-28, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.72% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.46% [9][24]. - The semiconductor sector showed mixed performance, with semiconductor materials gaining 0.42%, while digital chip design and semiconductor equipment saw declines of 2.14% and 3.45%, respectively [9][24]. Company Performance - Notable stock performances included Aojie Technology-U (+30.00%), Chip Origin Technology (+27.41%), and Zhuoyue Technology (+26.38%) [9][26]. - Conversely, companies like Shengyi Electronics (-24.29%) and *ST Tongzhou (-21.01%) faced significant declines [9][26]. Industry News - Apple’s investment will create approximately 20,000 jobs focused on R&D, chip engineering, software development, and AI [10][11]. - Samsung has signed an agreement with Yangtze Memory Technologies to utilize their patented technology in NAND flash memory production, enhancing reliability and production efficiency [10][11]. - Lenovo has launched the YOGA AIPC, integrating a large model AI system for enhanced user experience without relying on cloud services [10][11].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "in line with the market" [1][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term contracts for electricity coal to ensure stable coal consumption. The requirement for power generation companies to sign long-term contracts is set at a minimum of 80% of their coal demand for 2025, while coal companies are required to fulfill 75% of their own resource commitments [3][4]. - The report highlights the need for a balanced supply and demand in the coal market, with a focus on safety, environmental protection, and the regulation of coal imports [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal sector has shown a stable supply side, with port inventories declining and a focus on non-electric demand [2]. Policy Initiatives - A recent initiative from the China Coal Industry Association calls for strict adherence to long-term contracts, controlled production rates, and improved coal washing processes to enhance environmental standards [2][4]. Price Dynamics - As of the end of February, the reference price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 701 RMB/ton, while the annual long-term contract price at Qinhuangdao Port was 691 RMB/ton, indicating a significant narrowing of the price gap [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that after recent price adjustments, the coal sector's valuation and dividend yield have become more attractive. It recommends focusing on high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as undervalued companies with strong performance support [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "B" rating for the new materials sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has shown mixed performance, with the new materials index declining by 0.46%, while outperforming the ChiNext index by 4.41% [3]. - The humanoid robot market is on the verge of a breakthrough, with a projected market size of approximately $1 billion in 2024, expected to reach $15 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 56% [6]. - PBO fiber and PEEK materials are anticipated to experience rapid growth due to their applications in humanoid robots, with PBO fiber's market size expected to reach $220 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of about 12.07% from 2025 to 2032 [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The new materials sector has experienced a decline, with specific indices showing varied performance: synthetic biology index down 1.25%, semiconductor materials up 2.65%, and battery chemicals up 5.56% [3][14]. - The overall market performance for the week showed a decline in the basic chemical and new materials sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.72% [11]. 2. Price Tracking - Amino acids prices showed slight declines, with valine at 14,700 RMB/ton (-1.67%) and tryptophan at 55,500 RMB/ton (-1.77%) [4]. - Prices for biodegradable plastics remained stable, with PLA injection grade at 18,000 RMB/ton [4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in PBO fiber, such as Dinglong Technology, and those producing PEEK materials, including Zhongxin Fluorine Materials and Zhongyan Co., Ltd [7]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the humanoid robot industry to drive growth in related materials, particularly PBO and PEEK [6][7]. 4. Company Performance - The report highlights individual company performances within the new materials sector, noting that 32.58% of stocks achieved positive returns, with notable performers including Guanghua Technology (up 13.67%) and Tianyue Advanced (up 11.14%) [22]. - Conversely, companies like Jinfat Technology and Dinglong Technology faced significant declines, with losses of -10.31% and -9.29%, respectively [22].

Investment Rating - The solar industry maintains a "Synchronize with the Market-A" investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - The CPIA forecasts that China will add 215-255 GW of new solar capacity in 2025, with global solar capacity expected to increase by 531-583 GW, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth in optimistic scenarios [1] - The National Energy Administration projects that by 2025, non-fossil energy will account for approximately 20% of total energy consumption, with a total installed power generation capacity exceeding 3.6 billion kilowatts [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicates that the photovoltaic manufacturing industry will continue to see a "volume increase and price decrease" trend in 2024, with production of polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules all expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The solar industry is expected to maintain high levels of new installations in 2025, with projections of 215-255 GW in China [1] Price Tracking - Polysilicon prices remain stable, with dense material averaging 39.0 CNY/kg and granular silicon at 37.0 CNY/kg [4] - The average price for 182mm monocrystalline wafers is 1.15 CNY/piece, while N-type wafers average 1.18 CNY/piece [5] - M10 cell prices are stable at 0.33 CNY/W, with N-type cells seeing a slight increase of 1.8% [5] - The average price for 182mm bifacial PERC modules is 0.65 CNY/W, with TOPCon modules at 0.695 CNY/W, reflecting a 0.7% increase [6] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include companies focusing on new technology (Aixu Co., Longi Green Energy), supply-side improvements (Folait), and overseas expansion (Canadian Solar, Sungrow Power) [7]