Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that broad fiscal targets are in line with expectations, but the special bond issuance quota has been missed, indicating potential challenges in fiscal policy implementation [7] - It emphasizes that total fiscal support is crucial for economic stability and growth, suggesting that the effectiveness of fiscal measures will significantly impact the industry [9] - The report discusses uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and their potential impact on trade dynamics, particularly a 20% increase in tariffs this year, which could affect the industry significantly [15] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Fiscal Policy**: The report notes that while broad fiscal targets are met, the failure to meet special bond issuance quotas could hinder economic support [7] - **Economic Support**: It stresses the importance of total fiscal support in driving economic recovery and stability, indicating that the current measures may not be sufficient [9] - **Trade Dynamics**: The report outlines the implications of increased US tariffs on China, which could lead to significant shifts in trade patterns and affect the industry adversely [15]

MACRO: WHAT IS VULNERABLE IN ASIA TO THE FALL IN NVIDIA 宏观：亚洲在英伟达下跌中脆弱的是什么 Last week we looked at the correlations of Asian companies with Bitcoin and showed what seemed to be surprisingly high correlations. We suggested that these correlations were happening as a result of excess liquidity which has been declining since November as a result of the fiscal debt freeze, contraction of global central bank balance sheet, the unwind of the yen carry trade and USD strength caused by tariff concerns. A rise in rea ...

3 March 2025 | 9:10PM GMT Growth expectations across markets have been repriced sharply lower already (Exhibit 3). While the reset in expectations happened across regions, it was sharper in the US, which switched from being the region with the strongest (in late January) to the one with the lowest growth pricing. This re-set growth pricing has been broad across US sentiment reset - weaker growth expectations drive more non-US outperformance assets (Exhibit 4). For example, 10y inflation swaps moved lower ac ...

28 February 2025 | 8:50PM GMT Commodity Analyst Commodity Investing 101 n Stronger case for commodities futures, but choose wisely. The decade following the financial crisis offered only muted commodity returns amid a below-potential economy— due to deleveraging and restrictive fiscal policy—, unusually low inflation, and highly globalized supply chains. Today's environment offers a more favorable backdrop for commodities with less slack in the economy — and supportive fiscal policy —, the move to reshoring ...

3 March 2025 | 7:59PM GMT Thematic Stock Exposures A physical AI ecosystem Global tech heavyweights from Tesla to Nvidia are ramping up development of advanced AI technologies that enable machines to sense and interact with the physical world. In this special edition of Thematic Stock Exposures, we tap into the research of equity analysts across the globe to highlight companies that our teams believe are exposed to physical AI – from autonomous vehicles manufacturers and robot-makers to those providing the ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the spirits industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - Moutai and Laojiao are focusing on long-term sustainable growth, with Moutai targeting over Rmb100 billion in sales and a market cap of Rmb1 trillion in the long term [2] - Moutai series spirits have shown strong retail sales momentum during the Lunar New Year (LNY), achieving sales targets [2] - Laojiao's Luzhou Laojiao brand reached over Rmb10 billion in sales in 2024, while Guojiao 1573 continued to register over Rmb20 billion in sales [2] - The spirits industry is experiencing a channel transformation with an emphasis on consumer engagement and premiumization strategies [2] Summary by Sections Moutai Updates - Moutai's March shipment quota is approximately 6% of the full year, with Q1 quota expected to be 35-37% of the annual target [6] - The channel inventory level for Moutai stands at around 0.5 months [6] - Moutai's wholesale price for original cases decreased from Rmb2,240 to Rmb2,230, while unpacked prices fell from Rmb2,220 to Rmb2,200 [8][18] Laojiao Updates - Laojiao is focusing on channel profits and premiumization for 2025, aiming for sustainable growth [2] - The company hosted an annual distributor conference announcing significant sales achievements [2] Market Trends - Fen Wine recorded high single-digit percentage retail sales growth during LNY, outperforming the industry average [7] - Construction activity, which correlates with spirits consumption, has seen a decline in return-to-work progress post-LNY, with only 64.6% of projects resuming as of the fourth week post-LNY [7][9] Pricing Trends - Common Wuliangye's wholesale price remained stable at Rmb950, while Guojiao 1573's price was flat at Rmb870 [18] - The report highlights a general trend of price stability across various high-end liquor brands, with minor fluctuations noted [18][21]

Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 3 March 2025 | 6:00PM EST USA: Trump Announces Intent to Move Forward With New Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China BOTTOM LINE: President Trump reiterated today (Mar. 3) that he would impose tariffs March 4 ...

US Economics Analyst Industry Winners and Losers from Potential Tariff Increases (Peng) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 3 March 2025 | 10:39AM EST Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng + ...

备受期待的两会将于 3 月 4 日开幕，值得关注的关键事件是李强总理将于 3 月 5 日上午发表的政府工作报告。本文回顾了两会前后中国资产的表现情况 — — 在股市方面，鉴于近期人工智能热潮过后市场出现盘整，且投资者仓位较低， 两会前的跌幅可能较浅。而由于市场对积极惊喜的预期门槛较低，会议结束后股 市有可能出现上涨行情。在利率方面，自上周五中国人民银行以少量逆回购操作 令市场感到不安后，资金紧张可能是比两会更重要的驱动因素，而且长期债券尚 未出现显著调整。历史数据表明，两会后 3 月份收益率曲线更有可能趋平，不 过这次情况可能有所不同。就外部背景而言，我们需要留意特朗普在贸易和国家 安全方面不断升级的强硬立场，这可能会对中国资产造成压力。 * 在财政赤字率的 "实际值" 一栏中，括号外和括号内的数字分别指官方预算 内财政赤字率和实际预算内财政赤字率。 资料来源：高盛投资研究部（GIR）两会前瞻 股市 —— 两会前跌幅较浅，两会后往往表现良好 上周，在科技、媒体和通信（TMT）板块 / 人工智能受益股表现出色之后，恒生 指数（HSI）出现了今年以来的首次单周下跌。然而，我们并未看到任何恐慌性 抛售的迹象；相反， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the China/HK market, with expectations of a broadening rally in the near future [3][7][14]. Core Insights - There has been a notable rotation from growth to value stocks, with no signs of panic selling in A-shares, suggesting a more orderly market environment [4][12]. - The Southbound trading remains robust, with net inflows averaging US$1.1 billion per day in February, marking the 20th consecutive month of net inflows [12][28]. - The report highlights that the A/H premium spread remains depressed, indicating potential for a catch-up play as tech strength drives H-outperformance [8][14]. - The report anticipates that small and mid-cap A-shares, particularly the CSI1000 index, will outperform due to higher exposure to AI and retail ownership [8][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Despite a recent pullback, year-to-date performance for HSTECH is +24.6%, HSCEI +15.5%, and CSI 1000 +5.2% [7]. - The report notes that the sharp outperformance in HK shares has pushed the A/H premium to levels rarely seen in the last four years [14]. Fund Flows - Hedge funds have increased their exposure to China, with their China allocation now at the 45th percentile, up from the 8th percentile in December [17][18]. - Mutual funds and global long-only funds have trimmed their China exposure, indicating a mixed sentiment among different investor types [20]. Retail and Institutional Interest - Onshore retail margin trading has reached post-2015 highs, indicating increased interest in software and AI application-related stocks [28][31]. - The CSI1000 index is noted for its balanced exposure to software applications and infrastructure, making it a favorable investment choice [33].