2025/6/3 08:53 钢铁关税、法院诉讼、中国、TACO：特朗普贸易战的最新进展 - 彭博 商业 | Big Take播客 特朗普贸易战的转折点 在今天的 Big Take 播客中：特朗普对等关税的 90 天暂停期已过半，他的战略⾯临新 的挑战。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五抵达位于宾⼣法尼亚州西⽶夫林的美国钢铁公司欧⽂⼯⼚。 摄影师： Rebecca Droke/Bloomberg 作者：Julia Press和Sarah Holder 2025年6⽉3⽇凌晨4:27（格林威治标准时间+8） 不错过任何⼀集。⽴即关注 The Big Take 每⽇播客。 ⼤拿 特朗普贸易战的转折点 17:43 特朗普总统全⾯实施互惠关税的90天暂停期已过半。这三个⽉的延期本应让 美国有时间与世界各国进⾏贸易谈判。然⽽，尽管谈判仍在进⾏，许多协议 似乎仍遥不可及。如今，针对特朗普关税策略的法律挑战⼜给政府的计划带 ⽴即获得⽆限制访问权限。 探索优惠 Get uninterrupted access to l b l C l https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06- ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry discussed. Core Insights - The supply of fentanyl is only one aspect of the opioid crisis in the US, and addressing it requires cooperation between the US and China [4][5][8] - The US has made progress in reducing overdose deaths, with a 27% decline in 2024, but this progress may be jeopardized by political and policy challenges [9][10][11][32] - Cooperation between the US and China is essential for effectively tackling the fentanyl issue, but political tensions complicate this collaboration [25][37] Summary by Sections - **Fentanyl Supply and US Addiction Crisis** - Cutting off fentanyl supply alone will not resolve America's addiction crisis; a serious commitment to user support programs is necessary [4][5][25] - The US has made strides against fentanyl, with over 400,000 deaths since its rise, but the recent 27% drop in overdose deaths indicates potential for improvement [9][10][11] - **US-China Relations and Fentanyl** - China has been scapegoated for the fentanyl crisis, but the reality is more complex, involving both countries' cooperation [4][5][8] - The US should stop using fentanyl as a political weapon and instead engage China as a partner in addressing the issue [37] - **Impact of Policy Changes** - Abrupt crackdowns on fentanyl supply could lead to unintended consequences, such as the emergence of more dangerous narcotics [27][28] - The Biden administration's efforts to improve access to naloxone and treatment options are crucial for maintaining progress against the opioid crisis [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging economic environment for the U.S. with a contraction in GDP due to trade impacts and declining consumer spending [7][4][10]. Core Insights - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter, primarily driven by significant trade shocks and a larger-than-expected decline in consumer spending, which grew by only 1.2%, revised down from an initial estimate of 1.8% [7][4][10]. - In contrast, Canada saw a boost in its economy due to a surge in exports ahead of tariff increases, contributing positively to its GDP growth [10][16]. - India's GDP growth outperformed expectations, reaching 7.4%, driven by a recovery in agricultural activities and investments [28][27]. Summary by Sections U.S. Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP contracted in early 2025, reflecting a significant impact from trade-related tariffs and a notable drop in consumer spending [7][4][10]. - The contribution from net exports was a drag of nearly 5 percentage points, marking the largest recorded impact [8][7]. Canadian Economic Performance - Canada experienced strong export growth due to pre-tariff shipment increases, which helped offset weaknesses in other economic sectors [10][16]. - Preliminary data suggests that the Canadian economy maintained growth momentum into the second quarter, with a 0.1% increase in output in April [10]. Indian Economic Performance - India's economy showed signs of recovery with a growth rate of 7.4%, the highest in four quarters, supported by agricultural and investment rebounds [28][27]. - Despite being the fastest-growing major economy, India's growth rate has slowed compared to its historical average of around 8% [28].

2025/6/2 23:30 China's Rare Earths Grip Gives Xi Leverage in US Trade Duel - Bloomberg 技术 势 中国对稀⼟的控制使 在与美国的贸易较量中占据优 Tap to unmute 观看：唐纳德·特朗普总统在⽩宫对记者说："我确信我会与 席对话，希望我们能达成共识。" 来源：彭博社 彭博新闻 2025年6⽉2⽇晚上10:05（GMT+8） 更新⽇期 2025 年 6 ⽉ 2 ⽇晚上 11:15 （格林威治标准时间 +8 ） 继中美在⽇内⽡达成⼀致，将关税从天⽂数字下调后，围绕芯⽚和稀⼟资源 的争夺战愈演愈烈。⽽北京⽅⾯似乎越来越占据优势。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五指责中国违反了上个⽉达成的协议，并寻求与中 国国家主席习近平通话解决问题。 主要的症结似乎在于关键矿产，美国官员 抱怨北京⽅⾯没有加快尖端电⼦产 品所需的出⼝。美国表⽰，降低关税的决定取决于中国是否同意取消对部分 稀⼟的出⼝管制。 美国财政部副部⻓迈克尔·福肯德周⼀在接受彭博电视台的简短采访时表⽰： "这需要两国总统进⾏讨论。" ⼀位美国政府官员周⼀表⽰，两国领导⼈很可能 ...

陷入法律泥潭,特朗普贸易战将走 2025年4月2日,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在华盛顿特区白宫玫 绍互惠关税的海报。 摄影师:肯特·西村/彭博社 作者：埃里克·拉尔森、乔什·温格罗夫、肖恩·唐南和劳拉·柯蒂斯 2025年5月30日凌晨12:13 (GMT+8) 更新日期 2025年5月30日凌晨4:54 GMT+8 人 节省 美国国际贸易法院于5月28日裁定, 唐纳德·特朗普总统征收的绝大多 数关税均属非法,并下令冻结这些关税,这将对其经济议程的一个关 键支柱造成打击。一天后,上诉法院暂时撤销了特朗普政府的裁决, 同时正在考虑更长期的冻结措施。 纽约贸易法院由三名法官组成的合议庭一致裁定,特朗普错误地援引 了一项紧急状态法来证明征收关税的合理性。鉴于法院在贸易问题上 倾向于听从总统的意见,这一裁决实属罕见。 如果最终维持贸易法院的裁决,将标志着特朗普政府在一系列针对行 政命令的诉讼浪潮中遭遇重大法律挫折,这些诉讼正在考验总统权力 的底线。如果行政部门选择无视法官的命令,这项裁决也可能考验法 院执行裁决的权力。 随着案件在司法系统中不断推进,影响数万亿美元全球贸易的关税命 运最终可能掌握在最高法院手中。 贸易法庭的 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a potential rollback of Trump's tariff agenda, which could significantly impact the investment landscape in the trade sector [2][4][12]. Core Insights - The recent court ruling temporarily halts a significant portion of Trump's tariff agenda, which could reduce the effective U.S. tariff rate from nearly 27% to below 6% [4][8]. - Trump's administration plans to continue defending its trade policies in higher courts, indicating a commitment to maintaining tariffs despite legal challenges [3][7]. - The ruling has introduced uncertainty into global trade dynamics, as Trump's fluctuating tariff policies have already caused unrest among international trading partners [11][12]. Summary by Sections Legal Developments - A federal appeals court has temporarily blocked a ruling that would overturn many of Trump's tariffs, providing a glimmer of hope for the administration [2][5]. - The court's decision could lead to a significant reduction in tariffs, impacting various sectors reliant on imports [4][8]. Administration's Response - Trump's team expresses confidence in overcoming legal hurdles and plans to explore alternative legal avenues to impose tariffs [7][17]. - The administration is considering other options for implementing tariffs, although these may take longer to execute [13][14]. Economic Implications - The potential reduction in tariffs could lead to economic stagnation, as the effective tariff rate drops significantly [8][11]. - The ongoing legal disputes may inject further uncertainty into the global economy, affecting trade negotiations and relationships with partners [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global shortage of transformers poses a significant threat to electricity supply and infrastructure development, particularly as demand for electrification increases due to electric vehicles, data centers, and heat pumps [1][30][60] - The transformer industry has experienced a boom and bust cycle, leading to a conservative approach in manufacturing capacity expansion despite rising electricity demand [60][61] - The time required to deliver large power transformers has increased significantly, with timelines now ranging from three to five years, complicating the planning of new power plants [56][60] Summary by Sections Transformer Shortage Impact - The shortage of transformers is slowing down the construction of electrical infrastructure, leading to increased costs and delays for companies needing power for data centers and other facilities [72][78] - Extreme weather events have exacerbated the situation, causing damage to existing transformers and resulting in prolonged outages for affected areas [79][81] Manufacturing Challenges - The transformer manufacturing industry is facing difficulties due to a lack of standardization and the need for custom-built transformers, which complicates production and delivery [55][60] - The industry is heavily reliant on specific materials, such as grain-oriented electric steel, which is in short supply, further hindering transformer production [83] Global Context - While Western economies are struggling with transformer shortages, countries like China are managing to meet their electrification needs without significant disruptions [94][96] - Governments in some regions are beginning to support transformer manufacturing to alleviate shortages, but the urgency of the situation has not yet prompted widespread action [91][92]

2025/5/28 09:47 Asia's 'Sell America' Moment Threatens $7.5 Trillion Bet on US Dollar, Assets - Bloomberg 插图： Glenn Harvey 市场杂志 | ⼤事件 亚洲对美国资产的7.5万亿美元押注突然⽡解 特朗普的政策正在将美国市场从避⻛港变成动荡和痛苦的根源。 作者：Ruth Carson、Masaki Kondo、Rebecca Choong Wilkins和Diana Li 2025年5⽉28⽇上午5:00 GMT+8 ⼏⼗年来，亚洲出⼝强国⼀直奉⾏简单的财务策略：向美国销售商品，然后将 收益投资于美国资产。 随着唐纳德·特朗普试图重塑全球贸易和美国经济，颠覆了亚洲7.5万亿美元投 资背后的逻辑，这种模式如今正⾯临⾃2008年全球⾦融危机以来的最⼤威 胁。⼀些全球最⼤的基⾦经理表⽰，撤资才刚刚开始。 ⼤举进军亚洲 美元的主导地位正在减弱 16:41 ⽆论您在哪⾥收听，都可以关注 The Big Take Asia 播客。 Explore Offer Get unlimited access toda ...

2025/5/28 09:57 美元为何在亚洲⾯临信⼼危机：播客 - 彭博 市场 | Big Take Asia播客 美元在亚洲的主导地位正在减弱 在今天的 Big Take Asia 播客中：美元在亚洲的主导地位的丧失对该地区的市场意味着什么。 作者：Julia Weaver、Rebecca Choong Wilkins、Yang Yang和Naomi Ng 2025年5⽉28⽇上午6:00（格林威治标准时间+8） 总结 新的 藏 近期台币兑美元的⼤幅上涨引发 了⼈们对亚洲货币转向美元和潜 在"去美元化"的担忧。 彭博⼈⼯智能摘要 这⼀趋势是由寻求美元替代品的 投资者推动的，⼀些基⾦经理认 为这是将投资转移回国内（尤其 是亚洲）的更⼤趋势的标志。 彭博⼈⼯智能摘要 这种转变可能对全球⾦融市场和 经济产⽣重⼤影响，⼀些专家警 告称，这可能会引发⾦融体系的 "重组"，并导致亚洲各国更加重 视本币。 彭博⼈⼯智能摘要 ⼿表 彭博社： 9 不错过任何⼀集。⽴即关注《The Big Take Asia》播客。 ⼤举进军亚洲 美元的主导地位正在减弱 16:41 随着唐纳德·特朗普试图重塑全球贸易，美元在亚洲的历史主导地 ...

Trump also appears to have undergone a mood shift on Russia over the weekend but in the opposite direction. He said he was "absolutely" considering new sanctions against Russia, after Moscow launched a second night of deadly missile and drone strikes across much of Ukraine. He took to social media to say that Russian President Vladimir Putin "has gone absolutely CRAZY!" Trump's increasing frustration over the state of ceasefire talks raises the likelihood of further US sanctions, with the possibilities incl ...