Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report discusses the valuation and growth potential of the company, 毛戈平, in the context of international luxury beauty brands and domestic new consumption trends. It highlights the company's unique brand culture and competitive advantages in the high-end beauty market, suggesting that it is well-positioned to capture market share and achieve stable growth [1][8]. Summary by Sections International Beauty Giants - International beauty giants like L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Shiseido have maintained stable growth and valuation premiums due to their comprehensive brand matrices and global strategies. L'Oréal's average PE from 2015 to 2024 is 38 times, with a revenue and net profit CAGR of 6.5% and 7.7% respectively [2][3]. - Estée Lauder has focused on youthfulness and high-end branding, achieving an average PE of 80 times from 2020 to 2022, but faced significant volatility post-2021 due to market changes [2]. - Shiseido's strategy of focusing on mid-to-high-end products and global expansion has led to a peak PE exceeding 100 times, although it has faced challenges in revenue and profit stability in recent years [3]. Domestic New Consumption - The rise of domestic brands reflects increased cultural confidence and changing consumer demands. Brands like 毛戈平, 老铺黄金, and 泡泡玛特 have capitalized on cultural recognition and competitive scarcity, leading to significant stock performance [4]. - 毛戈平 is highlighted as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand with substantial growth potential, leveraging its founder's cultural IP and a professional product matrix to establish a strong market position [8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 50.54 billion, 65.03 billion, and 82.58 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 11.85 billion, 15.06 billion, and 19.18 billion yuan respectively. The compound annual growth rate for net profit from 2024 to 2027 is estimated at 29.6% [9]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.42, 3.07, and 3.91 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 41.53, 32.68, and 25.67 times [9]. Competitive Advantages - 毛戈平's unique brand culture and high-end product offerings create a competitive moat in the domestic beauty market. The company is expanding its product matrix and has begun exploring overseas markets, with initial revenues from international sales already noted [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, with the main brands experiencing marginal increases in table turnover rates compared to the previous quarter, although year-on-year comparisons remain negative [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the table turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1 for Tai Er, 2.6 for Song Hotpot, and 2.6 for Jiu Mao Jiu, reflecting year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day respectively. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - The average customer spending per visit was 72, 100, and 56 yuan for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [8][3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8][3]. Customer Experience Focus - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new initiatives and a "Fresh" store model in March 2025 to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, aiming to increase customer loyalty through various promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.1, 0.15, and 0.24 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2026 [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "STRONG BUY" rating to the company with a target price of HKD101.0 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong FY24 results with a revenue increase of 26.5% YoY and a significant turnaround in adjusted net profit, which rose by 385.6% YoY, driven by growth in AI and SaaS solutions [2][4]. - The AI+SaaS business is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected revenue growth of 49.8% YoY, supported by a high revenue retention rate of 96% across enterprise customers [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the underpenetrated Chinese SaaS market, where SaaS/PaaS penetration is only 34.3%, compared to 80% in the U.S., indicating substantial growth potential [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 revenue reached RMB1,559 million, exceeding previous forecasts, with adjusted net profit of RMB79.2 million, significantly higher than the estimated RMB42.5 million [4][5]. - The AI+SaaS revenue was RMB842.2 million, reflecting a 19.9% YoY increase, while precision marketing revenue grew to RMB716.4 million, up 35.2% YoY [2][6]. Business Outlook - The AI-Agentforce platform is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in data processing and lifecycle management, with a focus on government sector relationships and international expansion [2][3]. - The precision marketing segment is anticipated to benefit from rising customer acquisition costs, driving demand for AI-powered solutions [2][3]. Valuation and Forecast - The target price was revised down to HKD101.0 from HKD157.7, reflecting a 12x FY25E price-to-sales multiple due to macro uncertainties [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for FY25E have been raised to RMB2,243 million, with expected growth rates of 43.89% YoY for total revenue and 49.75% YoY for AI-SaaS revenue [6][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5][24]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year in 4QFY25, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 13%. The revenue growth rates for various segments are projected as follows: Taobao (5%), International Digital Commerce (27%), Cloud Intelligence Group (20%), Local Services (12%), Cainiao (1%), and Entertainment (7%) [4][6]. - The company continues to focus on its core e-commerce and AI & Cloud businesses while reducing costs in non-core areas. The cloud revenue is expected to grow sustainably driven by AI industry momentum [5][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - For FY2025, the company’s revenue is adjusted to CNY 996.9 billion, with further projections of CNY 1,074.2 billion in FY2026 and CNY 1,156.6 billion in FY2027. The adjustments reflect a slight decrease due to competitive pressures affecting monetization rates [5][27]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are CNY 160.2 billion, CNY 172.5 billion, and CNY 188.3 billion respectively, with adjustments of 5.9%, 4.1%, and 1.2% [5][27]. Segment Performance - Taobao Group is expected to see a GMV growth of 4% year-on-year in 4QFY25, with a continued focus on maintaining market share and enhancing quality supply [10]. - The Cloud segment is projected to accelerate with a revenue growth of 20% year-on-year in 4QFY25, driven by increased demand following the introduction of Deepseek [14]. - The AI-driven applications are gaining traction, with the new Quark app achieving a monthly active user count of 149 million, marking it as the only domestic AI app to surpass 100 million MAU [21]. Profitability Metrics - The adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25 is expected to be CNY 302 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26% [6]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is projected to improve by 2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the narrowing losses in non-Taobao businesses [6][10]. AI and Cloud Developments - The company has been actively iterating its AI models, with several new releases aimed at enhancing reasoning capabilities and multi-modal functionalities [17]. - The AI Cloud segment is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, with significant contributions from AI-related revenues anticipated to reach triple-digit growth [14][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28, indicating a potential upside of 100% from the current price of HK$11.62 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to benefit from the resilience of the Chinese economy, with a projected revenue growth of 10% year-on-year for Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies for electronic products and home appliances [6][8]. - The company is focusing on automation, self-operated fleet construction, and cost-reduction measures, which are expected to stabilize its net profit margin [6][8]. - Despite the potential negative impact of the US-China trade tensions, JD Logistics has limited direct exposure to international trade, which mitigates the risks associated with tariff increases [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for JD Logistics are as follows: RMB 199,540 million for 2025E (+3% from previous estimates) and RMB 216,070 million for 2026E (+4%) [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is RMB 1.18, with a gradual increase to RMB 1.56 by 2027E [2][8]. - The company's financial performance shows a significant increase in net profit from RMB 1,985 million in 2023A to RMB 7,353 million in 2025E [8]. Valuation - The current valuation of JD Logistics is attractive, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.2x for 2025E, which may decrease further if the acquisition of the remaining 36% stake in Cross-border Express is completed successfully [7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the valuation attractiveness can offset potential negative impacts from external tariff environments [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports continues to show strong performance in Q1 2025, with FILA exceeding expectations and plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin to expand its outdoor segment [6][7] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue across its brands, with Anta, FILA, and others experiencing a revenue growth of 65-70% [6][7] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance the company's outdoor portfolio and accelerate its global channel development [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024: 70,826 million - 2025: 78,576 million - 2026: 86,693 million - 2027: 94,871 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at 16.2% for 2023, 13.6% for 2024, and declining to 9.4% by 2027 [8] - Net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024: 15,596 million - 2025: 13,458 million - 2026: 14,991 million - 2027: 16,567 million - The projected P/E ratios are 21.8 for 2023, decreasing to 13.5 by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][26]. Core Insights - The company reported strong retail performance in Q1 2025, with main brand offline sales growth of 10-15%, children's clothing offline sales growth of 10-15%, and e-commerce sales growth of 35-40%, reflecting a robust market presence [6][8]. - The company is actively innovating its store formats, launching the "Super Product Store" concept, with plans to expand from 10 to 50-100 stores by 2025, enhancing customer shopping experience [8]. - The company maintains a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4.5-5 times, with a stable discount rate of around 30% in Q1 2025, indicating effective inventory management [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 84.23 billion RMB - FY2024: 100.7 billion RMB (20% YoY growth) - FY2025E: 113.0 billion RMB (12% YoY growth) - FY2026E: 123.8 billion RMB (10% YoY growth) - FY2027E: 134.5 billion RMB (9% YoY growth) [7][17]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2023: 9.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 11.5 billion RMB (20% YoY growth) - FY2025E: 13.0 billion RMB (13% YoY growth) - FY2026E: 14.5 billion RMB (12% YoY growth) - FY2027E: 15.8 billion RMB (9% YoY growth) [7][17]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027 [7][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has over 700 sales points in Europe and North America, with a focus on Southeast Asia and Belt and Road countries for future expansion, indicating a strategic approach to international markets [8]. - The management expresses confidence in achieving a sales growth of 10-15% in 2025, primarily driven by volume growth [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][8] Core Views - JD Group is expected to benefit continuously from the national subsidy policy for replacing old products with new ones, and is actively extending its business boundaries by expanding into food delivery services [3][8] - The revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with JD Retail, JD Logistics, and new businesses expected to grow by 13%, 9%, and 5% respectively [2][4] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 is estimated at 9.9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.4% [5][6] Revenue Summary - For Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to reach 291.36 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year [6] - JD Retail's revenue is anticipated to grow by 14%, driven by double-digit growth in both electronic products and daily necessities, with the electronic category benefiting more from the subsidy [2][4] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth is expected to be slightly weaker than revenue growth, primarily due to the high growth of the 1P model in the revenue structure [2][4] Profit Summary - The overall gross margin is projected to reach 15.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins across various categories and high-end 3C growth due to subsidies [5][6] - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is forecasted to be 51.7 billion, 56.9 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 9% [3][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a 7% year-on-year revenue growth for Q4 FY25, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 13%. Revenue growth rates for various segments are projected as follows: Taobao (5%), International Digital Commerce (27%), Cloud Intelligence Group (20%), Local Services (12%), Cainiao (1%), and Entertainment (7%) [4][6]. - The company continues to focus on e-commerce and AI & cloud as its core businesses, while non-core businesses are undergoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The outlook for cloud revenue growth remains positive, driven by AI industry momentum [5][25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 FY25, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 237 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase. The adjusted EBITA is projected to be 30.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26% [6][27]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is expected to increase by 2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the narrowing losses in non-Taobao businesses [6][10]. Segment Analysis - **Taobao Group**: Anticipated GMV growth of 4% year-on-year, with a focus on maintaining market share and enhancing supply quality. The take rate is expected to continue its upward trend, leading to a CMR growth of 9% [10][11]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Expected revenue growth of 20% year-on-year, driven by increased demand following the introduction of Deepseek. The profit margin is expected to remain stable compared to previous quarters [14][17]. - **AI Development**: The company has launched several AI models and applications, including the flagship application Quark, which has reached 149 million MAU. Future developments will focus on enhancing reasoning capabilities and multi-modal integration [21][22]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 have been adjusted to 996.9 billion, 1,074.2 billion, and 1,156.6 billion yuan, respectively. The adjustments reflect a slight decrease due to competitive pressures affecting monetization rates [5][25]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are set at 160.2 billion, 172.5 billion, and 188.3 billion yuan, with adjustments primarily based on expectations of profitability improvements in non-Taobao businesses [5][25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports continues to show strong performance in Q1 2025, with FILA exceeding expectations and plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin to expand its outdoor segment [6][7] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue across its brands, with Anta, FILA, and others experiencing a revenue growth of 65-70% [6] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance the company's outdoor portfolio and accelerate its global channel development [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024: 70,826 million - 2025: 78,576 million - 2026: 86,693 million - 2027: 94,871 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at 16.2% for 2023, 13.6% for 2024, and declining to 9.4% by 2027 [8] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024: 15,596 million - 2025: 13,458 million - 2026: 14,991 million - 2027: 16,567 million - The projected P/E ratios are 16.6 for 2025, 14.9 for 2026, and 13.5 for 2027 [8]