中金公司 "对等关税"后的市场 20250407 摘要 Q&A 对等关税对全球市场的影响是什么？ 对等关税对全球市场的影响显著且复杂。首先，资产波动剧烈，情绪宣泄甚至 恐慌明显。具体来看，对等关税超预期主要体现在几个方面：一是所有贸易伙 伴不加区分地加征 10%的基线关税；二是部分贸易伙伴的关税对等，但实际加 征更多，如中国已被加征两轮 20%，理论上不应再被加征，但由于非关税贸易 壁垒和其他因素，反而被加更多。此外，还有 800 美元的小额包裹和汽车行业 的关税。这些措施使得美国整体有效税率达到近 100 年来的高点，即至少 23% • 美国有效税率因关税政策大幅提升至近百年高点，至少达 23%以上，对所 有贸易伙伴统一加征 10%基线关税，部分贸易伙伴如中国实际加征更多， 叠加小额包裹及汽车行业关税，导致市场反应剧烈。 • 市场情绪受冲击表现为避险交易，恒生科技、美股纳斯达克等估值较高股 票遭抛售，美股、美元下跌，债券和黄金上涨。流动性冲击显现，所有资 产包括避险资产下跌，美元上涨，投资者需现金应对赎回或风控减仓。 • 未来货币政策框架需关注国内流动性环境与政策空间，各国央行可能采取 措施对冲关税带来的市 ...

Investment Ratings - The report includes a "Buy" rating for MediaTek, CR Land, Weichai Power, and Krafton, while removing Advantest, Delta Electronics, Keppel Ltd, and Zijin Mining from the APAC Conviction List [1]. Core Insights - MediaTek is transitioning from a traditional smartphone application processor provider to an AI-focused company, with expected revenue and earnings growth of 16% and 17% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, respectively [2][24]. - CR Land is positioned for recovery in business growth and profitability, with forecasts indicating a re-acceleration in contract sales growth and market share gains [3][41]. - Weichai Power is expected to benefit from an improving outlook for heavy-duty trucks and a more profitable engine portfolio, with a forecasted 18% EPS CAGR over two years [4]. - Krafton's PUBG franchise is anticipated to drive earnings, with a focus on strong performance in upcoming results [5][9]. Summary by Company MediaTek - Positioned to transition to AI applications, with a forecasted revenue growth of 16% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, driven by market share gains and new total addressable markets (TAMs) [2][24][25]. - Expected operating margin (OpM) improvement from 19% in 2025 to 22% in 2027 [25]. - Current trading at 16x/13x FY26/27E P/E, at the mid/low-end of its historical range [26]. CR Land - Forecasts indicate contract sales growth re-acceleration and market share gains, with a projected gross profit margin recovery to 18% by 2027 [3][41]. - Expected average free cash flow (FCF) yield of 11% during 2025-2027 [3]. - Current share price implies a compelling valuation at 0.4x P/B on its development property business [3]. Weichai Power - Anticipated re-rating due to improved cyclical outlook for heavy-duty trucks and a more profitable engine portfolio [4]. - Forecasted gradual increase in dividend payout supported by strong net cash position and FCF generation [4]. - Currently trades at 10x 2025E P/E with a 6% dividend yield [4]. Krafton - Focus on the strong momentum of the PUBG franchise as a key earnings driver [5][9]. - Expected to outperform consensus estimates in upcoming earnings release [9]. - Currently trading at near-historical trough level at 12x 2025E P/E [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Bank of China (BOC), Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC), and China Construction Bank (CCB) with target prices of Rmb 6.73/HK$ 5.00, Rmb 6.82/HK$ 5.59, and Rmb 11.14/HK$ 7.91 respectively [24][27][28] Core Insights - Four large state-owned banks in China announced a total capital raise of Rmb 520 billion, with Rmb 500 billion from the Ministry of Finance and Rmb 20 billion from other state-owned shareholders [1] - The capital injection will increase the average shareholding of the Ministry of Finance and Central Huijin Investment by 5 percentage points to 56% [1] - The capital replenishment is expected to be completed through A-share private placements by the end of 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Capital Raise Details - The capital raise will be evenly distributed among BOC and PSBC, with each bank raising approximately Rmb 120 billion [3] - The new shares will be issued at a price below 1x book value, representing a 16% premium over recent trading prices [3] - New shares as a percentage of outstanding shares post-recapitalization for BOC and PSBC will be 8% and 17% respectively [4] Capital Adequacy - The CET1 ratio for BOC and PSBC is projected to increase by 86 basis points and 151 basis points respectively [4] - The report indicates that to maintain dividend per share (DPS) at 2024 levels, dividend payout ratios would need to rise to 31-36% [5] Growth Projections - The announced capital raise, along with increased dividend payouts, would allow for a 7.9-9.3% growth in risk-weighted assets (RWA) assuming unchanged density [5] - The report anticipates a downward trend in RWA density, which would enable more asset growth without proportionally higher capital consumption [15] Comparative Analysis - The report notes that Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) were excluded from the announced capital injections, with estimates suggesting they may require Rmb 150 billion each for capital support [18][19] - The average CET1 ratio increase for participating banks is expected to be 1.03 percentage points [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Tencent, Xiaomi, PDD, JD, NetEase, YMM, TAL, TCOM, BYD, AMEC, Concordia, GDS, and Kuaishou [1][5][8][9][10][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in focus from AI infrastructure to AI applications, highlighting key stock ideas around the secular AI theme [1]. - It identifies five overarching themes and stock preferences, advocating a dual-pronged approach focusing on domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive games with solid global footprints [1]. - The report outlines expected sales volume growth for BYD, projecting 5.5 million units in 2025, a 29% year-over-year increase, with a stable market share of 35% in China's NEV sales [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in Japan's tech sector around July-September, driven by a cyclical upturn and AI impact, with key stock recommendations including Murata Mfg, TDK, and Renesas [5]. - In the India QSR sector, the report expects a recovery in demand trends in the first half of FY26, with Domino's projected to outperform with 10% year-over-year LFL sales growth [5]. - AMEC is highlighted for its new product developments and increased R&D spending, with a positive outlook for growth [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections China Internet - The report discusses key investor focuses and debates following the China Internet results season, emphasizing stock ideas related to AI applications [1]. Japan Tech - The report notes early signs of recovery in Japan's tech sector, with a focus on production increases in edge AI devices expected around July-September [5]. BYD - BYD is projected to achieve a sales volume of 5.5 million units in 2025, with improvements in gross and net margins due to cost reduction efforts [5]. India QSR - The report anticipates a sluggish demand trend in Q4 FY25 but expects a recovery in the first half of FY26, with specific growth projections for Domino's and other QSR players [5]. AMEC - AMEC's recent product announcements and R&D advancements are expected to drive solid growth, with a target price set at Rmb275 [5]. Concordia Financial - Concordia Financial aims for a 9% ROE by FY3/28, reflecting a significant increase in net profits [9]. GDS Holdings - GDS's public REIT offering has been approved, with a projected distribution yield of 5.5% for 2025 [9]. Kuaishou - Kuaishou's advertising strategy focuses on content consumption ads and AI benefits, with confidence in achieving solid targets for 2025 despite a slowdown in Q1 [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates Weichai Power as a "Buy" and Sinotruk as a "Sell" based on their respective market positions and earnings outlooks [8][24]. Core Insights - The China heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry is expected to enter a multi-year upcycle driven by normalization in replacement demand, with domestic demand forecasts raised by 14-26% for 2025E-2030E, anticipating a volume doubling by 2030E compared to 2024 [1][15]. - The penetration rates for LNG HDTs and electric HDTs (eHDTs) are projected to increase to 36% and 35% respectively by 2030E, with clean/new energy HDTs expected to account for over 70% of total HDT demand by 2030E [1][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report raises the outlook for the heavy-duty truck industry in China, indicating a positive cycle inflection into 2025E, supported by a rebalanced truck fleet size against current activity levels [17]. - The expected peak in sales volume is projected at 1.2 million units by 2030E, compared to 1.55 million units at the previous cycle peak in 2020 [15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that emission policies will play a crucial role in shaping the demand trajectory, with potential upgrades to emission standards and the phase-out of high-polluting trucks expected to drive demand [2]. - The domestic HDT sales volume is anticipated to see a mean reversion, gradually moving back to normalized replacement demand levels [9]. Company-Specific Insights - Weichai Power is favored due to its improving earnings power cycle-over-cycle, while Sinotruk faces margin pressure from a slowdown in high-margin export business and the impact of truck electrification [8][20]. - Revised EPS estimates for Sinotruk for 2025E-27E are 15-25% below consensus estimates, while Weichai's estimates are 6-18% above consensus, reflecting a more favorable outlook for Weichai [20][23]. Financial Projections - The report introduces new revenue and net profit estimates for both companies, with Weichai's target price raised to HK$22.00/RMB24.00 from HK$14.61/RMB16.30, while Sinotruk's target price is adjusted to HK$18.60 from HK$17.30 [21][24]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic sales volume, with projections indicating a recovery in sales momentum driven by favorable replacement policies [25][66].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the semiconductor equipment industry, highlighting an overall upward trend in orders and revenue growth for key players in the sector. Core Insights - Semiconductor equipment manufacturers are experiencing an increase in orders, driven by new product developments and rising wafer processing rates, which in turn boost material demand [1][3] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape for special materials like silicon carbide, with some product prices recovering [1] - The emergence of new suppliers in advanced packaging equipment, particularly in 2.5D, 3D, and 3.5D technologies, is noted, with domestic projects propelling certain companies to prominence [1][3] Summary by Sections North Huachuang's Revenue and R&D Investment - North Huachuang anticipates Q1 2025 revenue of 7 to 8 billion yuan, with a 30% increase in chip orders, projecting total chip orders for the year at approximately 38 billion yuan [4] - The company is actively investing in R&D across ion implantation and electroplating, planning to expand production by 3,000 to 4,000 units annually [4] North Huachuang's Acquisition of New Yao Wei - North Huachuang is set to complete the acquisition of New Yao Wei by June 2025, which is expected to add around 1 billion yuan to its consolidated revenue [5] New Source Energy's Development in Cleaning Equipment - New Source Energy reported over 2 billion yuan in revenue from chemical cleaning agents, with total revenue projected to reach around 1.2 billion yuan in 2025 [6] Wan Ye Enterprise's Progress in Ion Implantation - Wan Ye Enterprise's subsidiary, Kaisi Tong, has received approximately 54 new orders and aims to launch a prototype of its medium-energy ion implantation equipment by mid-2025 [9] Micro Company’s Latest Developments - Micro Company reported revenue of about 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a 30% year-on-year growth, and expects similar growth rates in 2025 [15] Trends in Storage Equipment - The storage equipment sector is expected to see significant growth, with domestic companies enhancing their competitiveness, particularly in high aspect ratio etching equipment [16] New Products from Tuo Jing Technology - Tuo Jing Technology has launched new products including advanced packaging laser glass equipment and PLD devices, with a significant increase in orders anticipated by 2025 [17] Huahai Qingke's Progress in CMP Equipment - Huahai Qingke has introduced new CMP equipment and is expected to achieve a 30% growth in revenue this year, driven by collaborations with traditional and advanced packaging companies [18] Jiangfeng Electronics' Target Markets - Jiangfeng Electronics holds about 20% of the global target market share, with strong demand driven by AI and semiconductor manufacturing expansions [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards traditional strong assets like US stocks and bonds, while highlighting opportunities in safe-haven assets such as gold and Chinese government bonds [2][8][20]. Core Insights - The global economy and financial markets are experiencing significant volatility in 2025, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a favorable outlook for safe-haven assets [2][8]. - The US stock market, which had previously outperformed, is now facing high valuations and increased policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess risk preferences [3][6][9]. - The report indicates a rising probability of a US economic recession, exceeding 50%, due to factors such as stagflation risks and high inflation [10][11][16]. - China's economic competitiveness in technology and manufacturing is improving, but the real estate market remains weak, impacting overall economic growth [30][31][35]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that global trade tensions are suppressing economic growth, with expectations of a downward trend in global interest rates as central banks respond to these challenges [2][23]. - The US economy is under pressure from high inflation, high interest rates, and rising wages, which could lead to reduced corporate profitability and economic cooling [16][17]. US Market Analysis - The US stock market's high valuations and policy uncertainties are leading to adjustments, with investors shifting focus to European and Asian markets [3][9]. - The report highlights the need for investors to diversify their strategies, moving away from a simplistic buy-and-hold approach in US equities [9][19]. Chinese Economic Dynamics - The report notes that while China's technology and manufacturing sectors are gaining strength, the overall economic contribution from new industries remains low, with traditional sectors still dominating [30][34]. - The real estate market's ongoing weakness, particularly in new construction, is expected to have a prolonged negative impact on China's economic growth [31][33]. Investment Strategies - The report advocates for a diversified investment strategy that includes safe-haven assets and defensive sectors, as traditional strong assets face headwinds [8][9][20]. - It suggests that the issuance of special government bonds in China is aimed at stimulating consumption, particularly in durable goods, but warns of potential dependency on such policies [37][39]. Interest Rate and Debt Market - The report indicates that US debt yields are expected to decline as the Federal Reserve may need to lower rates in response to economic cooling [19][20]. - It also highlights the importance of managing the balance between fiscal expansion and maintaining economic stability, particularly in light of rising government debt levels [13][14][18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the bond market in 2025, suggesting potential opportunities similar to those observed in 2023 [2][9]. Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 is expected to experience fluctuations but is not anticipated to end the bull market, with a focus on monetary policy changes and external demand [5][9]. - The economic narrative of "East Rising, West Falling" is highlighted as a key driver for both 2023 and 2025, emphasizing the need to monitor differences in external demand, domestic consumption, inflation, and financing needs [3][9]. - The report discusses the impact of the real estate market, noting a divergence between second-hand and first-hand housing transactions, with second-hand sales benefiting from policy support and improved demand [12][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government fiscal policy in supporting the economy, particularly in the context of rising debt levels and the need for effective consumption stimulation measures [28][29]. Summary by Sections Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue its bullish trend, driven by factors such as declining interest rates and the ongoing economic recovery [16][41]. - The report suggests that the bond market's performance is closely linked to the real estate sector's health, with new construction activity declining significantly [13][14]. Economic Conditions - The report highlights the challenges posed by external factors, including U.S.-China trade tensions and a weakening U.S. economy, which are expected to exert pressure on China's exports [19][20]. - Domestic consumption is also under scrutiny, with rising savings rates and declining consumer confidence impacting overall demand [21][23]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is characterized by a split performance, with second-hand homes seeing better sales compared to new properties, driven by improvement needs and policy support [12][15]. - The report notes that the decline in new construction activity is a leading indicator that may further depress real estate investment [14]. Fiscal Policy and Monetary Conditions - The report underscores the significance of fiscal policy in the current economic landscape, particularly in light of rising debt levels and the need for effective measures to stimulate consumption [28][29]. - It also discusses the necessity for monetary policy adjustments, particularly in lowering short-term interest rates to alleviate current market distortions [40].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing positions during market peaks to avoid potential losses, as demonstrated by the case of the E Fund Anxin Return Fund in 2015 [2][4] - It highlights that absolute return products are not suitable for investors who frequently monitor net value fluctuations, advocating for a long-term investment perspective [5][6] - The report suggests that the recent adjustments in the bond market, driven by rising interest rates, have led to a decline in convertible bond valuations, necessitating cautious bottom-fishing strategies [9][11] Summary by Sections Market Strategy - In 2015, the E Fund Anxin Return Fund effectively reduced its position during the bull market, which helped mitigate losses during subsequent market corrections [2][4] - Investors should maintain a calm demeanor and provide clear communication regarding position adjustments, using historical data to build trust with clients [6] Fund Performance - In 2015, structured funds exhibited strong performance, particularly at market peaks, although they ultimately faced liquidation [7] - The key to success during this period was maintaining product consistency, with absolute return products reducing positions at high valuations [7] Market Indicators - A significant drop below the 20-day moving average is identified as a signal for potential market downturns, serving as a stop-loss indicator [8] - The report notes that the current market conditions suggest a need to lower positions to around 30% and focus on stocks with high value [10] Future Market Expectations - The report anticipates that the adjustment process in the convertible bond market will continue for about a month, with valuation compression potentially exceeding expectations [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the global consumer market, with strong resilience in high and middle-income consumer categories, while low-income consumers face weakened purchasing power [1][2]. Core Insights - The global consumer market shows significant differentiation, with high and middle-income categories demonstrating strong demand resilience, while low-income consumers are struggling [1][2]. - Essential consumer goods outperformed discretionary goods in Q4, driven by high inflation impacting low-income purchasing power, leading to a preference for cost-effective products [1][3]. - The global beauty market is expected to grow at around 4% in 2025, with emerging markets outperforming developed regions [1][12]. Summary by Sections Global Consumer Market Performance - The performance of global consumer goods companies in Q4 shows significant regional disparities, with North America experiencing flat overall demand and Europe outperforming [2]. - Japan's consumption growth is driven by inflation and inbound tourism, while Southeast Asia and India remain active markets [2]. Essential vs. Discretionary Goods - Essential goods performed better than discretionary goods in Q4 due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with leading companies in various sectors likely to show more pronounced performance [3]. Sportswear and Apparel Trends - The global sportswear industry saw strong growth in outdoor sports segments, while the mass apparel market remains competitive [4]. - U.S. holiday shopping season promotions boosted sales, but a slight decline is expected in 2025 due to macro uncertainties [4]. Beauty Market Dynamics - The beauty market varies significantly across regions, with North America facing pressure in mass cosmetics, while high-end fragrances continue to grow [7]. - The Chinese beauty market is facing challenges, with a projected retail sales decline in 2024 [8]. Food and Beverage Industry Outlook - The global food and beverage industry faces challenges from low-income consumer pressures in developed markets and slowing income growth in emerging markets [10]. - North American food demand is under pressure, while beverage demand remains relatively stable [10][11]. Future Projections - The beauty industry is expected to see a 4% growth rate in 2025, with emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia becoming key performance drivers for overseas beauty companies [12]. - The food and beverage sector is likely to experience a decline in revenue expectations but maintain earnings per share (EPS) stability due to effective cost management [10].