证券研究报告 | 2025年08月13日 投资建议：我们看好公司短期价格修复、稼动率满载，中长期特色工艺代工 拥有全球头部客户及领先工艺的龙头竞争力，根据公司指引，略调整费用率 与毛利率，我们预计 25-27 年净利润 0.90/1.52/2.02 亿美元（前值 25-27 年 0.92/1.66/2.01 亿美元)，当前股价对应 25-27 年 PB 1.56/1.52/1.48 为 倍，维持"优于大市"评级。 风险提示：下游需求放缓；新工艺导入不及预期；扩产不及预期。 华虹半导体（01347.HK） 优于大市 2Q25 毛利率超指引，稼动率保持满载 2Q25 毛利率超指引，3Q25 预期稳步增长。公司发布未经审核业绩：2Q25 实 现 销 售 收 入 5.661 亿 美 元 (YoY+18.3% ， QoQ +4.6%) ， 毛 利 率 10.9% (YoY+0.4pct，QoQ+1.7pct)，此前指引区间营收 5.5-5.7 亿美元，毛利率 7%-9%，毛利率超指引。预计 3Q25 销售收入约 6.2-6.4 亿美元；毛利率约 10%-12%。随着价格修复在下半年逐步体现，9 厂产能进一步释放，公司有 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's game and platform business show strong growth, driven by a "self-developed + channel" flywheel effect [2][10]. - The company expects to achieve a revenue of at least 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 37%, and a net profit of at least 790 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 215% [5][10]. - The report highlights the successful performance of self-developed games and the continuous growth of TapTap's revenue and profit due to improved advertising algorithms and user engagement [5][6]. Summary by Sections Game Business - The self-developed party game "Heart Town," launched in July 2024, has significantly contributed to revenue and profit, reaching the top 20 in the iOS game sales rankings [6]. - The classic IP new game "Ragnarok M: Beginner's Server" has achieved excellent results in the iOS game sales rankings in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [6]. Platform Business - TapTap has shown steady growth, with total game downloads increasing by 16% and daily active users (DAU) rising by 11% from July 2024 to June 2025 [8]. - The PC version of TapTap was launched in April 2025, focusing on aggregating users for self-developed PC games and addressing the current market's pain points [8][9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 5.012 billion yuan in 2024 to 9.313 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% [13][14]. - The net profit is projected to increase from 812 million yuan in 2024 to 2.456 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 1077% in 2024 [13][14]. - The report anticipates a rise in the company's return on equity (ROE) from 32% in 2024 to 28% in 2027 [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for Galaxy Entertainment, indicating confidence in its long-term prospects with an interim dividend of HKD0.70 per share, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of 58% [5][12]. Core Insights - Galaxy Entertainment reported a net revenue of HKD12.04 billion for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5% [2][7]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 reached HKD3.57 billion, up 12.4% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [4][11]. - The company's market share increased to 20.2% in Q2 2025, up from 19.5% in Q1 2025, indicating a strengthening position in the market [5][12]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, gaming revenue increased by 12.3% year-on-year, contributing HKD9.66 billion, while non-gaming revenue reached HKD1.61 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - The total betting amount for the company reached HKD119.45 billion, an increase of 18.4% year-on-year, with VIP betting accounting for 46.7% of the total [3][9]. Performance Metrics - The company's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Q2 2025 was HKD12.01 billion, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year increase, which outpaced the industry growth rate of 8.3% [10]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Galaxy Macau and StarWorld Macau was HKD3.33 billion and HKD0.3 billion respectively, with respective adjusted EBITDA margins of 33.3% and 25.9% [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.15 HKD based on a 12X PE valuation for 2025 [11][12]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the mass professional sports sector, achieving a revenue growth rate of 11% in H1 2025, leading the industry. The company is committed to technological innovation, continuously expanding its product matrix and enhancing cost performance. The channel structure is being optimized, with rapid expansion of new store formats [11][12]. - E-commerce revenue saw a remarkable increase of 45% year-on-year in H1 2025, reaching 1.82 billion RMB. The company is leveraging online exclusive products to strengthen its channel advantages [11][12]. - The company expects stable growth in overall performance for the year, maintaining a revenue growth guidance of 10-15% for 2025, primarily driven by same-store sales growth [11][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,423 million RMB in 2023 to 14,355 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 21.01% [5][13]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 961 million RMB in 2023 to 1,671 million RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 28.68% in 2023 [5][13]. - The company maintains a healthy gross margin, with a slight increase to 41.5% in H1 2025, benefiting from product structure optimization [11][12]. Market Data - The stock is currently trading within a 52-week price range of 3.26 to 6.65 HKD, with a market capitalization of 13,130 million HKD [8][12]. - The company has a current PE ratio of 6.87 for 2023, projected to rise to 9.23 by 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The manufacturing business showed steady revenue growth in Q2, with an improved gross margin compared to Q1. However, visibility for orders in H2 is limited, although gross margins are expected to be better than H1. The retail business faced pressure in Q2 due to a competitive domestic promotional environment, and it is anticipated to continue facing challenges in H2 [2][10] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at $7.89 billion, with a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year. Revenue is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2024, followed by a slight decline of 2.0% in 2025, and then recover with growth rates of 5.7% and 5.2% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4] - Gross profit for 2023 is estimated at $1.93 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at $275 million for 2023, with a significant increase of 42.8% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 9.6% in 2025 [4] - The company maintains a PE ratio of 6.49 for 2023, which is expected to rise to 9.15 in 2024 before declining to 7.63 in 2025 [4] Manufacturing Business - In H1 2025, the manufacturing business generated revenue of $2.61 billion, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year increase. The shipment volume reached 127 million pairs, up 5.0% year-on-year, with an average selling price (ASP) of $20.61, a 3.2% increase [10] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 17.7%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to uneven capacity utilization across factories and rising costs from increased labor and wages [10] Retail Business - The retail business reported revenue of $1.26 billion in H1 2025, a decline of 8.6% year-on-year. The gross margin for H1 was 33.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased discounting in a competitive promotional environment [10] H2 Outlook - For H2, the manufacturing side's order visibility remains uncertain, but gross margins are expected to improve compared to H1. The retail side may continue to face pressure from domestic discount promotions, although the company remains confident in its leading brands and plans to expand its product offerings [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 118 [6][11]. Core Insights - The growth in SVIP users has driven an increase in ARPPU, with significant performance in advertising and concert-related businesses, alongside notable cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][11]. - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 8.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.57 billion, up 37.4% year-on-year [11][15]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is RMB 324.5 billion, RMB 364.3 billion, and RMB 405.8 billion, reflecting growth rates of 14.3%, 12.3%, and 11.4% respectively [11][34]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 95.8 billion, RMB 112.3 billion, and RMB 125.1 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 24.9%, 17.2%, and 11.4% respectively [11][34]. - **Q2 2025 Performance**: The company reported a gross margin of 44.4%, with an operating profit of RMB 2.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [11][15]. Business Segments - **Online Music Subscription Services**: The paid user penetration rate reached 22.5%, with ARPPU increasing to RMB 11.7, a year-on-year rise of 9.3% [11][22][29]. - **Advertising and Concert-Related Services**: Revenue from these segments grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% in Q2 2025 [11][31]. - **Social Entertainment Services**: Revenue declined by 8.5% year-on-year, but the decrease has narrowed compared to previous quarters [11][31]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its content ecosystem by enhancing collaborations with domestic and international record labels and artists, including partnerships with The Black Label and SM Entertainment [11][34]. - New initiatives like the bubble feature on QQ Music aim to strengthen fan engagement and expand the fan economy [11][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][34] Core Views - The company experienced an 8.3% year-on-year decline in revenue to 9.16 billion RMB in the first half of the year, primarily due to increased discounts and a drop in customer traffic [1][4] - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 33.5%, leading to a 44.0% year-on-year decline in net profit to 190 million RMB [1][4] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level with an average inventory turnover of 146 days, keeping within the target of 150 days [1][4] - Online sales showed a robust growth of 16%, with live streaming sales exceeding 100% growth, contributing to 33% of total revenue [3][4] - The company plans to optimize its product mix and develop its own brands to enhance sales performance [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of the year decreased by 8.3% to 9.16 billion RMB, with a net profit decline of 44.0% to 190 million RMB [1][4] - In the second quarter, revenue fell by 11.6% to 4.05 billion RMB, but the gross margin improved by 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 34.5% [2][4] - The company has a stable cash level of 2.7 billion RMB and plans to distribute an interim and special dividend of 0.23 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 60% [1][4] Channel Performance - Online channels showed a 16% increase in revenue, while offline store sales were negatively impacted by reduced customer traffic, with same-store sales down by 10% to 20% [3][4] - The company closed 40 stores, bringing the total to 3,408, a 2.0% year-on-year decrease [3][4] Future Outlook - The company expects to stabilize profitability despite current revenue pressures, with a forecasted net profit of 390 million RMB in 2025, down 21% year-on-year, but projected to recover by 21% in 2026 and 11% in 2027 [4][32] - The target price is maintained at 0.59 to 0.69 HKD, corresponding to a 6-7x PE for 2026 [4][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 3.191 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 850 million RMB, an increase of 68.5% year-on-year [1] - The company's core business revenue is steadily growing, with rapid advancement in the IP derivative business and continuous empowerment of IP operations through AIGC technology [1][5] - The report highlights the strong growth of the IP derivative business, with a GMV of 480 million RMB in the first half of 2025, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Online Business - In the first half of 2025, online business revenue reached 1.985 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with self-owned platform product revenue increasing by 3.1% [2] - Revenue from Tencent product channels decreased by 25.6% due to optimization of content distribution mechanisms, while third-party platform revenue increased by 23.1% [2] IP Operations - The IP operation business saw a revenue decline of 48.4% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the natural development cycle and scheduling of film and television projects, with no new releases during this period [2] - Future releases of key projects are expected to boost performance in the IP operation sector [2] AI Integration - The company is exploring AI integration across its business, with significant improvements in user engagement and content creation efficiency [4] - The launch of the AI web novel knowledge base has increased interaction frequency between authors and AI by 40% [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting Non-IFRS net profits of 1.41 billion RMB, 1.57 billion RMB, and 1.71 billion RMB for 2025-2027 [5] - The target price has been raised to 45.58 HKD, based on improved valuations of comparable companies [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown good growth in its cloud business and accelerated the implementation of AI applications. The revenue for the first half of the year reached 3.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with a significant reduction in net loss from 218 million yuan to 98 million yuan [5][6]. - The company continues to push its "subscription-first" strategy, achieving a cloud subscription revenue of 1.684 billion yuan, which is a 22.1% increase year-on-year. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) for cloud subscriptions reached 3.73 billion yuan, up 18.5% [6][5]. - The company is also advancing its "AI-first" strategy, launching several AI products and achieving over 150 million yuan in AI contract amounts during the reporting period [6][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 7.078 billion yuan, 8.004 billion yuan, and 9.001 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.18 billion yuan, 3.36 billion yuan, and 6.35 billion yuan [6][4]. - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 7.3, 6.4, and 5.7 respectively [6][4]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 66.0% in 2025, increasing to 68.0% by 2027 [9][8]. Operational Performance - The company has improved its operational metrics, with a gross margin of 65.63% in the latest reporting period, up from 63.25% year-on-year [6][5]. - The net profit margin is projected to turn positive by 2025, with a forecast of 1.7% [9][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -1.7% in 2024 to 7.2% by 2027 [9][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike-W (02423), marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - Beike has evolved from a leading intermediary to a comprehensive residential service platform, with a projected GTV of 33,494 billion RMB and a revenue growth of 20.2% year-on-year for 2024 [3][11]. - The company's existing housing business remains robust, with a GTV of 22,000 billion RMB and a market share increase to 30.7%, continuing to be the core profit source [3][11]. - New housing business shows counter-cyclical growth, with a revenue increase of 10.1% year-on-year, while home decoration and rental services are rapidly expanding, with revenue growth of 36.1% and 135.0% respectively, forming a second growth curve [3][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 80.8 billion RMB, 90.6 billion RMB, and 99.7 billion RMB respectively, indicating significant platform ecosystem synergy [3][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Beike, as a leading one-stop residential service platform in China, covers transactions, rentals, and home decoration, facilitating over 4.9 million transactions in 2024 with a GTV of 33,494 billion RMB [11][25]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Beike achieved total revenue of 93,457 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. The existing and new housing businesses contributed 30.2% and 36.0% to revenue respectively, while home decoration and rental services grew significantly [33][38]. - The GTV has shown a steady increase, with a market share rise in both new and existing housing from 2.2% and 12.6% in 2018 to 11.4% and 31.0% in 2024 respectively [33][37]. Business Segments - The existing housing business is expected to continue its recovery, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 at 298.3 billion RMB, 323.5 billion RMB, and 346.6 billion RMB, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [17]. - The new housing market is under pressure, but Beike's platform advantages are expected to enhance its market share during this phase [17]. - Home decoration and rental services are anticipated to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 182.9 billion RMB, 219.5 billion RMB, and 256.8 billion RMB for 2025-2027, indicating a strong upward trend [18]. Profitability and Valuation - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at 72.11 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year due to revenue structure disturbances and one-time employee incentives [12][19]. - The company is actively pursuing share buybacks and dividends, with a buyback plan of up to 30 billion USD and a dividend payout ratio exceeding 75% [56][57].