2025 年 05 月 07 日 Q1 略超预期，期待渠道改革成效 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 129.49 | | 总市值（亿元） | 5026 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3882 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3881 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 107.69-164.05 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 2933.66 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究 1、《五粮液（000858）：营销执行 提升年，稳定压倒一切》2024-12- 19 2、《五粮液（000858）：浓香龙头 迎复兴，酒业大王向前看》2024- 12-06 3、《五粮液（000858）：发布中期 利 ...

证券研究报告：交通运输 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-07 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 13.08 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）34.47 | / 34.47 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）451 | / 451 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 18.09 / 12.34 | | 资产负债率(%) | 33.3% | | 市盈率 | 11.23 | | 第一大股东 | 上海圆通蛟龙投资发展 | | (集团)有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 圆通速递(600233) 行业地位稳固，份额保持提升 l 圆通速递披露 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报 圆通速递披露 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现 营业收入 690.3 亿元，同比增长 19.7%，实现归母净利润 40.1 亿元， 同比增长 7.8%，其中第四季度营业收入 196.6 亿元，同比增长 16.2%，实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 849 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 18.91%, and a net profit of 195 million yuan, up 27.59% year-over-year, indicating performance in line with expectations [6]. - The company is experiencing strong export demand, with Q1 2025 lubricant additive exports reaching approximately 27,500 tons, accounting for 42.9% of the domestic total, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 27.9% [6]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence and has achieved multiple product certifications, positioning itself to become a competitive player in the global lubricant additive market [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 4,362 million yuan for 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 38.2% [5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 890 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.2% [5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 34.6% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 21.0% [5].

证券研究报告 建筑装饰 | 工程咨询服务 Ⅱ 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 05 | 月 | 06 | 日 | 收盘价（元） | 10.89 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一 | 年 | 内 | 最 | 高 | / | 最 | 低 | 14.88/7.59 | （元） | | 总市值（百万元） | 5,578.67 | 流通市值（百万元） | 5,578.67 | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | 512.27 | 资产负债率（%） | 49.86 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company has successfully expanded its direct customer base and is focusing on the progress of capacity release [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.087 billion yuan, representing a 14% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 24% [1] - The company is expected to continue its positive operational trend due to the optimization of raw material costs and the implementation of capacity projects [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue reached 1.087 billion yuan, with a net profit of 111 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 94 million yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 240 million yuan, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7 million yuan, down 80% [1] Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 0.04 percentage points and 9 percentage points to 35.03% and 28.63%, respectively [2] - The company is implementing strategies such as structural price locking and direct engagement with core suppliers to mitigate cost pressures [2] Product Development - Revenue from cream products in 2024 was 1.008 billion yuan, a 16% increase, with a gross margin of 35.48% [3] - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure and optimizing cost-performance ratios for its products [3] Sales Channels - Revenue from distribution channels in 2024 was 877 million yuan, a 6% increase, while direct sales revenue grew by 65% to 210 million yuan [4] - The company is actively developing large customers and enhancing its customer coverage [9] Market Outlook - The overseas revenue for 2024 was 216 million yuan, reflecting a 17% increase, with expectations for continued double-digit growth in 2025 [9] - The company anticipates that the second phase of its investment projects will significantly alleviate capacity bottlenecks [3]

2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司研究 Q1 业绩表现亮眼，医疗和消费品板块协同发力 ——稳健医疗（300888.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：52.22 元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.82 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 304.09 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 22.99/54.80 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 61.74% | 股价相对走势 -30% -12% 6% 24% 42% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 稳健医疗 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is under pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 15.4% to 614.07 billion yuan and a significant drop in net profit by 88.2% to 1.67 billion yuan. The first quarter of 2025 shows a sequential improvement in profit, with net profit turning positive at 3.02 billion yuan, driven by a 13.3% increase in vehicle sales [1][3]. - The company is facing challenges in its joint ventures, particularly with SAIC-GM, which reported a 56.5% decline in sales in 2024, resulting in a net loss of 26.69 billion yuan. In contrast, SAIC-GM Wuling showed strong performance with a 12.3% increase in net profit [2][3]. - The company is adapting to market conditions by increasing its export sales and enhancing its self-owned brand presence, with self-owned brand sales accounting for approximately 60% of total sales in 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 614.07 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 9.4%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 137.68 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 8.1% [1][5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 1.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 88.2% from the previous year, while the first quarter of 2025 showed a net profit of 3.02 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year [1][5]. Joint Ventures and Partnerships - The investment income from joint ventures and associates in 2024 was -1.33 billion yuan, a significant drop from 10.72 billion yuan in 2023. The first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery with investment income of 1.54 billion yuan [2][3]. - SAIC Volkswagen's sales in 2024 decreased by 5.5% to 1.148 million vehicles, while SAIC GM's sales plummeted by 56.5% to 435,000 vehicles, leading to substantial losses [2][3]. Export and Self-Owned Brands - The company's export retail sales in 2024 increased by 2.6% to 1.082 million vehicles, with efforts to mitigate the impact of EU anti-subsidy investigations [3]. - The self-owned brand sales are projected to grow, supported by the integration of the Roewe and Feifan brands and the launch of new models in collaboration with Huawei [3].

——伊利股份（600887.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：伊利股份发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报，2024 全年实现营业收入 1157.80 亿元，同比-8.24%；归母净利润 84.53 亿元，同比-18.94%；扣非归母 净利润 60.11 亿元，同比-40.04%。其中，24Q4 单季度实现营业收入 267.40 亿 元，同比-7.07%；归母净亏损 24.16 亿元，23 年同期盈利 10.48 亿元；扣非归 母净亏损 24.98 亿元，23 年同期盈利 15.73 亿元。25Q1 实现营业收入 330.18 亿元，同比+1.35%；归母净利润 48.74 亿元，同比-17.71%；扣非归母净利润 46.29 亿元，同比+24.19%。 2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司研究 轻装上阵，调整向好 低温品类逆势增长，奶粉业务增势良好。1）液体乳 24 年实现收入 750.03 亿元， 同比-12.32%，主要系终端需求偏弱及常温奶主动去化库存带来的销量下降。低 温品类 24 年收入同比实现逆势增长。液体乳 25Q1 实现收入 196.40 亿元，同比 -3. ...

投资逻辑 集采推动行业变革，发光高速机推广带来份额提升。公司作为国 内体外诊断行业领军企业，试剂产品以免疫诊断为主。2024 年安 徽省牵头二十八省体外诊断试剂集采中，公司产品采购需求量情 况良好且最终以第一次序中标，集采执行后将加速国产化进程。 在高端产品方面，公司高通量化学发光免疫分析仪 AutoLumo A6000 单个分析模块检测速度 600T/h，随着高速机型在医院内装 机逐步取得成果，将带动公司免疫试剂在高端市场份额快速提升。 "流水线+分子诊断+微生物质谱"打造多平台增长极。除传统免 疫诊断业务外，公司也在拓展多个创新业务拓展： 1）院内自动化流水线：实验室自动化流水线对多个检测模块进行 整合，能显著提升医院检验效率，公司是国内首个推出全自动流 水线的国产企业，最新款 Autolas X-1 实现了流水线线体完全国 产化，多项关键性能指标优秀，未来将带动核心试剂产品的销售。 2）分子诊断&基因测序：作为精准医疗的技术基础，分子诊断目 前是国内体外诊断增速最快的细分赛道。在基因测序领域，全资 子公司思昆生物测序仪产品 Sikun2000 性能优越，在外资 Illumina 公司被商务部禁止国内销售 ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 稳健收官，市占率继续提升 ——今世缘（603369.SH）2024 年年报与 25 年一季报点评 要点 事件：今世缘发布 2024 年年报与 2025 年一季报，公司 24 年实现总营收 115.46 亿元，同比增加 14.31%，归母净利润 34.12 亿元，同比增加 8.8%，其中 24Q4 总营收 16.04 亿元，同比减少 7.56%，归母净利润 3.26 亿元，同比减少 34.84%。 25Q1 总营收 50.99 亿元，同比增加 9.17%，归母净利润 16.44 亿元，同比增加 7.27%。公司拟每股派发现金红利 1.2 元（含税），合计派发现金红利 14.96 亿 元（含税）、对应分红率约 43.85%。 24 年收入保持双位数以上增幅。1）分产品，24 年特 A+类/特 A 类/A 类/B 类产 品收入 74.9/33.5/4.2/1.4 亿元，同比+15.2%/+16.6%/+2.0%/-11.1%，特 A+类 和特 A 类产品收入保持较高增长，低端产品收入下滑。分量价，24 年白酒销量/ 均价同比+19.5%/-4.3%，均 ...