Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Underperform" rating for New World Development (17 HK) [1] Core Views - New World Development faces a bleak profit outlook but has stabilized its financial position [2] - Management uncertainty persists in the medium to long term, hindering a potential re-rating [2] - Potential restructuring and market recovery opportunities exist, particularly with the possible sale of the Kai Tak Sports Park to its parent company, Chow Tai Fook Enterprises [2] Financial Performance Summary - New World Development reported a significant net loss of HKD 11.8 billion in FY24, driven by HKD 6.3 billion in development property impairment losses and HKD 2.7 billion in investment property revaluation losses [2] - Core losses widened from HKD 1.4 billion to HKD 4.6 billion, with core operating profit declining by 17.8% to HKD 6.9 billion [2] - Total interest expenses exceeded HKD 10 billion, surpassing core operating profit, leading to the suspension of dividends [2] - The company is actively deleveraging through asset sales (HKD 59/77/130 billion in FY23/24/25F) and reduced capital expenditures (HKD 190/150/150 billion in FY23/24/25F) [2] Management Uncertainty - The resignation of Adrian Cheng, the former CEO and third-generation family member, has introduced uncertainty, with the appointment of a new CEO seen as transitional [2] - This management instability is expected to negatively impact the company's operations and re-rating potential [2] Market Recovery and Restructuring Opportunities - The potential sale of the Kai Tak Sports Park to Chow Tai Fook Enterprises could be beneficial, as the project is nearing completion and expected to be operational by Q1 2025 [2] - The company may benefit from a market re-rating driven by US interest rate cuts and China's property support policies, but management uncertainty remains a key risk [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been revised downward from HKD 8.75 to HKD 7.25, reflecting a 17% reduction due to lower net asset value expectations [2][9] - Earnings forecasts for FY25-26 have been cut by 20-34% [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to remain flat in FY25F at HKD 35.9 billion, with a slight increase to HKD 36.6 billion in FY26F [3] - Net profit is projected to recover to HKD 867 million in FY25F and HKD 1.8 billion in FY26F, following a significant loss in FY24 [3] - Core earnings per share are forecasted at HKD 0.34 in FY25F and HKD 0.72 in FY26F [3] Key Financial Ratios - The net debt ratio increased to 57.2% in FY24, up from 49.6% in FY23, but is expected to decline to 53.1% in FY25F [3] - The price-to-book ratio remains at 0.1x, reflecting the company's undervaluation [3] Trading Data - The stock's 52-week price range is HKD 6.20 to HKD 15.96, with a market capitalization of USD 2.64 billion [4] - The 12-month expected return is -11%, indicating continued underperformance [4] Historical Performance - The stock has underperformed the Hang Seng Index over the past 12 months, with a -37% absolute return and -50% relative return [5] Segment Performance - Property sales revenue declined by 41% YoY in FY24, while rental income increased by 4% [6] - The construction segment saw a significant revenue drop of 45.7%, reflecting weak market conditions [6] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Total assets decreased to HKD 445.2 billion in FY24, down from HKD 609 billion in FY23, primarily due to asset sales and reduced capital expenditures [11] - Operating cash flow improved to HKD 10.99 billion in FY24, up from HKD 6.53 billion in FY23, driven by cost-cutting measures [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company has experienced a contraction in revenue, with a significant decline in property development income, while investment properties have shown stable performance. The forecast for net profit has been revised downwards for 2025-2026 and a new forecast for 2027 has been added, expecting net profits of 370 million, 600 million, and 860 million HKD for 2025-2027 respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 63.2, 39.4, and 27.2 times for 2025-2027 [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023/2024, the company reported total revenue of 35,782 million HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 62.4%, primarily due to reduced property development revenue in Hong Kong. The gross profit was 12,849 million HKD, down 22% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.9%, an increase of 13.38 percentage points year-on-year. The core operating profit from continuing operations was 6,898 million HKD, down 18% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of -11,807 million HKD due to non-cash impairment losses [3][4] Investment Property Performance - The investment properties generated revenue of 5,197 million HKD in the fiscal year 2023/2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.03%. The revenue from investment properties in Hong Kong was 3,356 million HKD, with significant increases in sales and foot traffic at K11 MUSEA and K11 Art Mall, which saw sales growth of 17% and 16% respectively, and total foot traffic growth of 20% and 10%. The occupancy rate for K11 Art Mall remained at 99% [3][4] Property Development and Capital Expenditure - The property development revenue for the fiscal year 2023/2024 was 16,125 million HKD, a decline of 40.95%. The revenue from property development in Hong Kong and mainland China was 2,412 million HKD and 13,713 million HKD, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -85.60% and +29.94%. The company has focused on the Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta, contributing over 85% of contract sales in mainland China. Capital expenditures and administrative expenses have been significantly reduced by 23% and 17% respectively [3][4]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|吉利汽车（00175） 吉利汽车 9 月销量点评： 银河 E5 上市热销，新能源销量创历史 新高 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月04日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 10 月 1 日，吉利汽车发布 2024 年 9 月产销快报，公司 9 月实现汽车销量 20.2 万辆， 同比+21.0%，环比+11.4%。2024 年 1-9 月汽车累计销量 149.0 万辆，同比+32.1%。24Q3-24Q4 公司新品密集上市，叠加以旧换新政策补贴加码，公司销量有望维持高速增长态势。 |分析师及联系人 高登 陈斯竹 SAC：S0590523110004 SAC：S0590523100009 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月04日 吉利汽车(00175) 吉利汽车 9 月销量点评： 银河 E5 上市热销，新能源销量创历史新高 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|--------------------------| ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Inc (09868) [5] Core Views - XPeng's delivery capability is steadily improving, with September 2024 deliveries reaching a new high of 21,352 units, a 39% YoY increase and a 52% MoM increase [2][7] - The MONA M03 model, launched on August 28, 2024, exceeded expectations with over 30,000 pre-orders within 48 hours and quickly became the best-selling A-class pure electric sedan after its official launch in September [2][7] - XPeng's intelligent driving technology is progressing, with plans to achieve door-to-door autonomous driving by the end of 2024 and approach L3 autonomy by the second half of 2025 [7] - The XNGP urban autonomous driving system achieved an 83% monthly active user penetration rate in September 2024 [7] - The AI Tianji XOS 5.3.0 system was fully rolled out on September 25, 2024, bringing 32 feature updates and 38 performance upgrades [7] Financial Projections - Expected sales for 2024/2025/2026 are 180,000/450,000/670,000 units, with corresponding revenues of 43.6/79.3/104.6 billion yuan [8] - Net profit is projected to improve significantly, with estimates of -5.05/-0.5/2.3 billion yuan for 2024/2025/2026 [8] - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 42%/82%/32% for 2024/2025/2026 [8] - The company is expected to achieve positive EBITDA of 1.9064 billion yuan in 2026, compared to -5.1072 billion yuan in 2024 [9] Market Performance - Current stock price is 55.00 HKD with a market capitalization of 104.45514 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a 52-week range of 74.30 to 25.50 HKD [5] - The company has a book value per share of 20.51 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.04% [5] Industry Context - XPeng operates in the automotive/passenger vehicle sector [5] - The company's AI-driven strategy and new model launches are expected to drive a turnaround in financial performance [8] - Collaboration with Volkswagen could further expand XPeng's revenue and technical capabilities [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto-W (02015) [5] Core Views - Li Auto achieved record monthly deliveries of 53,709 vehicles in September 2024, a 48.9% YoY increase [2][7] - Q3 2024 cumulative deliveries reached 153,000 vehicles, a 45.4% YoY increase, hitting the upper end of sales expectations [2][7] - Market share in the premium NEV segment (above RMB 200,000) exceeded 17% and is expected to continue in Q4 2024 [2][7] - The company's product strength is improving, with stable order growth for the L series and MEGA models [2][7] - Li Auto's intelligent driving capabilities are advancing, with city NOA mileage penetration exceeding 50% among test users [7] - The company's ecosystem is expanding rapidly, with 479 retail centers, 436 service centers, and 894 supercharging stations as of September 2024 [7] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 147.3 billion in 2024 to RMB 280.0 billion in 2026, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6% [7] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 8.53 billion in 2024 to RMB 23.72 billion in 2026 [7] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 4.02 in 2024 to RMB 11.18 in 2026 [7] - The company's ROE is projected to improve from 12.4% in 2024 to 22.3% in 2026 [10] Operational Highlights - Li Auto's retail network covers 145 cities with 479 retail centers as of September 2024 [7] - The company has deployed 4,286 charging piles across 894 supercharging stations [7] - OTA 6.2 version enhanced Pro version's highway NOA capability and Max version's parking and AEB functions [7] Industry Position - Li Auto maintains a leading position in the premium NEV market with over 17% market share in the RMB 200,000+ segment [7] - The company's intelligent driving capabilities are considered advanced, with significant improvements in AEB and AES functions [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China General Nuclear Power (1816 HK) with a target price raised to HK$3.8 per share, reflecting a 16% upside potential [3][19]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing operational pressure due to longer overhaul durations and declining electricity prices, with a slight increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024 [2][16]. - The company has a stable growth outlook with an increase in approved and commissioned nuclear units, which is expected to enhance future capacity [18][19]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 39.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.11 billion, up 2.2% [2][16]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 38.6%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 7.7% rise in nuclear fuel costs [17]. - The company managed to maintain a net profit margin of 27.6% despite the challenges, with a net cash flow from operating activities of approximately RMB 12.79 billion, down 18.44% year-on-year [17] [19]. Growth Prospects - As of mid-2024, the company manages 28 operational nuclear units and has 10 under construction, with expectations for gradual operational commencement starting in 2025 [18]. - The company received approvals for six new nuclear units in August 2024, indicating a steady increase in its long-term capacity [18][19]. Future Projections - The forecast for operating income for FY24-26 is set at RMB 87.12 billion, RMB 91.95 billion, and RMB 97.05 billion respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to RMB 18.70 billion, RMB 20.27 billion, and RMB 21.83 billion for the same period [3][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ENN Energy Holdings with a target price of 73.99 HKD per share [3][11] Core Views - ENN Energy's revenue grew by 0.9% YoY to 54.587 billion yuan in H1 2024, while net profit declined by 22.8% to 2.573 billion yuan [3] - The company's natural gas business showed steady growth, with retail gas volume increasing by 4.5% YoY to 12.71 billion cubic meters [3][8] - The pan-energy and smart home businesses experienced significant growth, with pan-energy sales volume increasing by 26% YoY to 197.4 billion kWh [9] Financial Performance - Domestic core profit increased by 9.5% YoY to 3.08 billion yuan, while basic earnings per share decreased by 0.66 yuan to 2.29 yuan [3] - Gross margin declined by 1.38 percentage points to 11.84%, and operating profit margin fell by 2.59 percentage points to 7.15% [3] - The net debt ratio decreased from 25.3% to 24.3%, reflecting efforts to optimize the debt structure [10] Business Segments - Industrial and commercial retail gas volume grew by 5.4% YoY, accounting for 75.2% of total retail gas volume [8] - The company added 775,000 new household users and achieved a daily opening gas volume of 7.262 million cubic meters [8] - The smart home business saw a 23% YoY increase in gross profit, with transaction customers reaching 2.683 million and an average unit price of 325 yuan per customer [9] Future Outlook - The report forecasts FY24-26 main business revenue at 122.475 billion yuan, 132.386 billion yuan, and 143.859 billion yuan, respectively [11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8.134 billion yuan, 8.633 billion yuan, and 9.357 billion yuan for FY24-26 [11] - The company expects a 20%-30% growth in smart home business gross profit in H2 2024 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Southern Airlines is "Accumulate" [2][5]. Core Views - The report indicates that the supply and demand in the industry are expected to continue recovering, with the company poised to reduce losses in its main operations. The construction of the Beijing Daxing hub is anticipated to elevate the profit center [4][5]. - The company has significant profit elasticity and benefits from a potential decline in oil prices, which could enhance profitability during peak seasons [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The net profit for the first half of 2024 is projected at -1.23 billion RMB, with a significant impact from a nearly 1.4 billion RMB investment loss due to the capital increase in Sichuan Airlines. The main operations are expected to continue reducing losses year-on-year [5]. - The company’s fleet size increased by 6.7% compared to the same period in 2019, with an ASK growth of 6% [5]. - The passenger load factor improved by 6 percentage points year-on-year, surpassing 2019 levels, while seat revenue increased by 4% compared to 2019 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively investing in international routes, capitalizing on cross-border e-commerce opportunities, leading to a 4.5 billion RMB increase in logistics profits to 1.7 billion RMB [5]. - The report highlights that if the average fuel procurement price decreases by 10%, the estimated annual net profit increases for China Southern Airlines and other airlines would be 4.2 billion RMB, 4.1 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, 530 million RMB, and 470 million RMB respectively [5]. Long-term Development - The construction of the Beijing Daxing hub is a significant strategic move for China Southern Airlines, as it is the largest base airline at the airport. The company is expected to benefit from new slot allocation policies [5]. - The report anticipates that as supply and demand recover, the profitability of domestic routes will improve, and the long-term profitability of international routes is also expected to enhance [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1][2]. Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in domestic demand and is gradually enhancing its overseas logistics capabilities. It has been recognized in various rankings, including the "Top 100 Enterprises in Chongqing" and "Top 100 Logistics Companies in Western China" [1]. - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.165 billion yuan, an increase of 4.54% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.26 million yuan, up 4% year-on-year. The main revenue sources include vehicle transportation, commodity sales, and supply chain management for automotive raw materials and parts [1]. - The company benefits from national policy support and promotional measures from automotive manufacturers, leading to stable growth in domestic automotive production and sales. The company's main client, Changan Automobile, also reported growth that outperformed the industry average [1]. - The company plans to raise funds through a directed issuance of shares to enhance its overseas logistics capabilities and invest in smart logistics and supply chain management [1]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 72.75 million yuan, 82.15 million yuan, and 90.59 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.56 yuan [2][3]. - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2026 are 7.969 billion yuan, 8.359 billion yuan, and 8.836 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.9%, 5.7%, and 6.3% respectively [3]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout, distributing a final dividend of 0.2 yuan per share in September 2024 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK) with a target price of **HKD 80.00**, implying a potential upside of **25.2%** [2][4] Core Views - New Oriental continues to maintain its leading position in international education, with steady expansion in its education business [2] - The company's education business is expected to achieve a **24% CAGR** in revenue from FY2024 to FY2027, driven by ongoing margin optimization [2] - The offline teaching center expansion is progressing well, with a **6% QoQ increase** in Q1 FY2025, adding **60+ new centers**, primarily in Tier 1 and New Tier 1 cities [2][5] - The education business is valued at **20x P/E** for the 12 months ending February 2026, excluding contributions from Dongfang Zhenxuan [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts Q1 FY2025 Preview - Total revenue is expected to grow **33% YoY** to **USD 1.46 billion**, in line with the company's guidance of **31-34%** [3] - Non-Dongfang Zhenxuan revenue is projected to increase **33% YoY** to **USD 1.247 billion** [3] - Adjusted operating profit is estimated at **USD 320 million**, with an operating margin of **21.9%**, driven by a **2 percentage point improvement** in non-Dongfang Zhenxuan business margins [3] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at **USD 259 million**, with a net margin of **17.7%** [3] Segment Performance - Overseas test preparation revenue is expected to grow **21% YoY**, high school revenue **27%**, university/adult education **26%**, and new businesses **52%** [3] - Gross margin is projected to improve to **58%**, up **2.5 percentage points** from the previous forecast [4] Long-Term Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from **USD 4.314 billion** in FY2024 to **USD 7.646 billion** in FY2027, with a **24% CAGR** [6] - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted to increase from **USD 473 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.196 billion** in FY2027 [6] - Adjusted net profit is projected to rise from **USD 381 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.043 billion** in FY2027 [6] Industry and Peer Comparison - The report covers multiple companies in the internet and education sectors, with **Buy** ratings for peers like TAL Education (TAL US) and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US) [8] - New Oriental's valuation and growth prospects are highlighted as favorable compared to its peers in the education sector [8]