上 市 公 司 房地产 2025 年 03 月 31 日 保利物业 (06049) | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 31.30 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8516.55 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 40.65/24.25 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 173.19 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 153.33 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0836 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 94% -6% 44% 04/02 05/02 06/02 07/02 08/02 09/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 01/02 02/02 03/02 HSCEI 保利物业 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com ——业绩稳定增长，管理费用改善 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× cao ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a current price of HKD 5.87 [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 20.75 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit of CNY 3.57 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue reached CNY 10.65 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, while net profit was CNY 1.7 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [4] - The company is implementing a full-age nutrition strategy, expanding its product offerings beyond infant formula to include products for children, adults, and functional nutrition [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 66.3% and a net profit margin of 17.2%. The second half of 2024 saw a gross margin of 64.9% and a net profit margin of 15.9%, with a notable decline in net profit margin attributed to increased sales expenses and reduced government subsidies [6] - Revenue from infant formula products was CNY 19.06 billion in 2024, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year increase. Other dairy products generated CNY 1.514 billion, up 6.3% year-on-year, while health products saw a decline of 25.4% to CNY 173 million [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a CNY 1.2 billion childbirth subsidy plan to attract new customers, which is expected to enhance revenue growth. Additionally, it has strengthened its presence in the Canadian market and is exploring opportunities in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [7] - The company is transitioning to a full-age nutrition model, with plans to develop products for children and adults, including a recent launch of a protein product aimed at reducing muscle loss in adults [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to CNY 3.812 billion, a 4% decrease, while the 2026 forecast remains at CNY 4.141 billion. The report introduces a 2027 profit forecast of CNY 4.405 billion. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 13x for 2025, 12x for 2026, and 11x for 2027 [8][10]

绿城管理控股 （09979.HK） 2025 年 03 月 31 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/31 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 2.880 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 7.980/2.570 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 57.89 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 57.89 | | 总股本(亿股) | 20.10 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 20.10 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 24.56 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 绿城管理控股 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《行业竞争加剧，新拓订单增速放缓 —港股公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.27 房地产/房地产服务 收入增长利润下降，新拓市占率提升 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 68.8 HKD, up from the current price of 56.60 HKD [3][57]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a slowdown in fundamental growth but is focusing on the development and commercialization of its AI product, Kling AI, which shows promising user growth and monetization potential [1][14]. - The financial performance for Q4 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 35.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and adjusted net profit of 4.7 billion RMB, aligning with forecasts [1][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Platform Ecosystem - Kling AI is at the forefront of the industry, with significant updates enhancing its text-to-video capabilities and user engagement [10][14]. - The user base for Kling AI is expected to grow rapidly, with the app achieving notable rankings in both domestic and international markets [14][15]. - The AI model has shown strong commercial potential, with revenue exceeding 100 million RMB since monetization began [18]. 2. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was 35.4 billion RMB, slightly below expectations, while adjusted net profit was in line with forecasts [30][34]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 54.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [34]. - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 11.0% year-on-year, indicating ongoing investment in user acquisition and retention [36]. 3. Business Segments - Online marketing revenue reached 20.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13%, driven by improved advertising pricing and AI optimization [43]. - E-commerce GMV was 462.1 billion RMB, growing 14.4% year-on-year, supported by a rise in active buyers [47]. - Live streaming revenue was 9.85 billion RMB, showing a slight decline of 2.0% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is improving [54]. 4. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to 19.95 billion RMB and 24.04 billion RMB, respectively, due to increased tax expenses and competitive pressures in e-commerce [57]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of Kling AI, with a potential increase in stock price as user numbers and monetization progress [57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 14.2% year-on-year, totaling 4.08 billion yuan, and a significant drop in net profit by 80.0% to 182 million yuan, primarily due to the overall weakness in the film industry, which saw a 22.6% decrease in national box office revenue [1][2]. - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company is expected to benefit from its strong market share in key segments and a robust pipeline of upcoming films, particularly in animation [2][4]. - The company has a solid cash position of 2.378 billion yuan and has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 20% over the next three years, reflecting confidence in cash flow management and shareholder returns [4]. Summary by Sections Entertainment Content Services - The entertainment content service segment generated 1.96 billion yuan in revenue, down 14.8% year-on-year, with the company participating in 63 domestic films that collectively grossed 23.2 billion yuan [2]. - The company maintained a leading market share in the box office for top films, participating in 8 out of the top 10 domestic films of 2024 [2]. Online Entertainment Ticketing - The online ticketing segment reported a revenue of 1.92 billion yuan, a decline of 14.9%, but the drop was less severe than the overall market [3]. - The offline ticketing business showed strong growth, with a 90% increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) from concerts featuring top domestic artists [3]. Financial Position and Future Outlook - The company ended 2024 with 2.378 billion yuan in cash and equivalents, maintaining a stable net cash position and a debt ratio of 27.65% [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 5.203 billion yuan and 5.499 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to reach 692 million yuan and 840 million yuan [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is transitioning from single product competition to a system ecosystem competition, introducing the concept of a "product ecosystem" [1] - The company plans to accelerate new product launches, aiming to double the number of new products to 800 in 2025 [2] - The company has a strong position in the domestic building block market and is expected to benefit from the rising trend of domestic brands [3] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025: 41.9 billion, 2026: 56.1 billion, 2027: 70.4 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 87.2%, 33.8%, and 25.4% respectively [3][4] - The company is expected to achieve net profit of 10.2 billion in 2025, 13.7 billion in 2026, and 17.4 billion in 2027 [3][4] - The current market valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.8 for 2025, 23.4 for 2026, and 18.5 for 2027 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Feihe (06186) [2][17] Core Views - The infant formula business is expected to return to growth in 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025 [1][7] - Despite challenges in the infant formula industry due to declining birth rates, China Feihe's strong brand recognition and distribution network position it well for market share expansion [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for China Feihe are as follows: - 2023: 19,532 million - 2024: 20,749 million (6% YoY growth) - 2025E: 21,751 million (5% YoY growth) - 2026E: 22,713 million (4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 23,630 million (4% YoY growth) [3][8] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 3,390 million - 2024: 3,570 million (5% YoY growth) - 2025E: 3,862 million (8% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4,024 million (4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 4,191 million (4% YoY growth) [3][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: - 2023: 0.37 - 2024: 0.39 - 2025E: 0.43 - 2026E: 0.44 - 2027E: 0.46 [3][8] Market Data - As of March 31, 2025, the closing price is HKD 5.87, with a market capitalization of HKD 532.25 billion [4][7] - The 52-week high and low prices are HKD 7.38 and HKD 3.39, respectively [4] Business Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20,749 million, a 6.23% increase YoY, and a net profit of 3,570 million, a 5.31% increase YoY [7] - The company’s infant formula segment generated revenue of 19,062 million, with a 6.63% increase YoY, maintaining a market share of 20.5% [7][8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 66.34%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points YoY, driven by an improved product mix [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for China Overseas Development (0688.HK) with a current stock price of HKD 13.9 [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in sales, ranking second in overall sales and first in equity sales within the industry, with a market share increase [5]. - The company focuses on key cities, with 85% of sales coming from first-tier and key second-tier cities, achieving significant sales records in high-end residential projects [5]. - The financial health of the company is strong, with a low average financing cost of 3.1% and a cash reserve of HKD 124.17 billion, which supports its market opportunities [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of HKD 185.15 billion, a decline of 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 15.64 billion, down 38.9% year-on-year, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.30 per share [3][5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is HKD 194.41 billion, with a growth forecast of 5.0%, and net profit is expected to rise to HKD 16.01 billion, reflecting a 2.4% increase [4][10]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 18% for the next few years, while the net margin is expected to be around 9% [10]. Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a record sales figure of HKD 387 billion for a single project, with an average selling price increase of 24.4% to HKD 33,810 per square meter [5]. - The company acquired 22 land parcels in 2024, with a total investment of HKD 80.6 billion, leading the industry in land acquisition [5]. Future Projections - The report projects a gradual recovery in sales and profitability, with EPS estimates adjusted to HKD 1.46 for 2025 and HKD 1.49 for 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook amid ongoing industry adjustments [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Poly Property (6049.HK) [1][3][12] Core Views - Poly Property's 2024 revenue is projected to be 16.34 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8% [4][6] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 50%, up by 10 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects to achieve a revenue of 16.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5% [5] - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 1.47 billion yuan, which is a 6.8% increase compared to the previous year [5] - The gross margin is projected to be 18.3%, while the net margin is expected to be 9.1% [5][10] Business Operations - The total managed area for 2024 is estimated at 800 million square meters, with a contract area of 990 million square meters, indicating a strengthening of scale advantages [6] - The proportion of third-party projects and non-residential types in the managed area is 65.4% and 60.9%, respectively, showing an optimized business mix [6] Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing community value-added services and has launched the "Oriental Courtesy" brand for high-end services [6] - In 2024, the revenue from third-party property management services is expected to account for 42.7% of total revenue, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 2.66 yuan, with estimates for 2025 and 2026 at 2.84 yuan and 3.00 yuan, respectively [5][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 10.8 for 2024, decreasing to 9.2 by 2027 [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company is focusing on the development of dual antibodies and ADC platforms, enhancing its product matrix in oncology and autoimmune diseases. Key products include CMG901 and CM313, with ongoing clinical trials expected to yield significant data in the near future [2][3] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the commercialization of its core product, Siponimod, and the anticipated partnerships for CM313 and CM355, leading to an upward revision of earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 [4][10] Summary by Sections Product Development - The company is advancing multiple dual antibodies and ADC drugs, including CM512, CM336, CM355, CM350, CM380, and CM518D1, which are aimed at solidifying its competitive position in the oncology and autoimmune sectors [3] - CMG901 is undergoing several global clinical studies for various cancers, with data expected to validate its competitive edge [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 699 million in 2025, 1.113 billion in 2026, and 1.869 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 63% and 59% respectively [11] - The net profit is expected to improve significantly, with a forecasted profit of 46 million by 2027, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [11] Market Position - The company is well-positioned in the autoimmune sector with a strong pipeline and the potential for international expansion of its ADC and dual antibody platforms [4][10]