大摩闭门会-金融、 地产、交运、线缆行业更新 20260304 摘要 2020—2025 年债务扩张的资金最终流向如何，是否有效支撑了居民收入、 存款与消费能力？ 2020—2025 年，公司与政府部门合计新增债务 160 多万亿，其中 140 多万 亿形成了居民存款沉淀。该过程通过提供工作岗位与收入来源，最终夯实居民 收入与存款基础，进而转化为消费能力。相较于直接以福利形式发放，该模式 更体现"按劳分配"的机制，覆盖面与持续性更强，且对稳定收入与就业更直 接。 政府杠杆上行对金融体系运行与风险化解的作用体现在哪些量化指标上？ 政府债务上升为金融体系理性放缓信贷扩张提供空间，信贷增速已从 2021 年 10%以上下降至 2025 年约 6%，与名义 GDP 更接近，整体风险随之收敛，也 为消化存量风险创造条件。制造业维度上，2025 年在财政支持与节奏调整下， 制造业贷款增速及中长期贷款增速降至 6.6，总负债增速降至 4%，产能增速降 至 0.6。供给增速已明显低于需求增速，后续重点转向存量产能过剩的消化与 风险出清。 基建投资在当前阶段的"乘数效应"与政策含义是什么，为什么仍被视为 2026 年支持需求的 ...

液冷 还是先说一下液冷的事，昨天的文章中提到了LPU的液冷和TIM2的材料，很多读者都来问。 LPU液冷、Rubin液冷的TIM材料 首先之前很多人都认为LPU应该是风冷的，但JP Morgan的报告中明确给出了冷板的方案和价值量。 当然这个不是我们要说的，我们要说的还是冷板的产能外溢。 在GB时代，台系厂商的液冷产能是不够的，所以才给了大陆厂商机会，像cooler master有很多的冷 板交给了科创新源去代工。LPU也是同样的道理，LPU的液冷本身就是现有的GB/VR 机架散热之外 的增量市场，同样也会有产能的外溢。这些都是大陆这边冷板代工厂的机会。 再说下关于TIM2材料，昨天的文章中，我们提到Rubin GPU 的功耗极高，普通的导热膏（Thermal Grease）已无法满足传热需求。因此，英伟达在 TIM2 层使用了液态金属铟（Indium）。液态金属导 热极好，但对铜（冷板常用材质）具有极强的腐蚀性，冷板表面必须进行镀金处理以防止腐蚀。 同样TIM2材料相对Blackwell也是增量市场。 首先TIM2的价格，根据业内的信息，单片的价格是在120美元左右，后面起量后，价格肯定会下 跌，就按100 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Telecom has announced an emergency procurement project for fiber optic cables in its Guangdong branch for Q1 2026, indicating a significant price increase in the fiber optic market, with the maximum price for GJYXFCH-1 core cable set at 310 yuan per kilometer, reflecting a 45.36% increase from previous prices [1][2]. Group 1: Procurement Details - The procurement focuses on FTTH butterfly-shaped fiber optic cables, with a maximum response price of 1,726,955.49 yuan for the project [2]. - The previous maximum price for GJYXFCH-1 core cable was 213.27 yuan per kilometer, highlighting a substantial price increase in the current procurement [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The demand for fiber optic cables is increasing, with operators raising procurement prices; for instance, China Telecom's procurement prices for G.652.D cables have risen by over 31% year-on-year, with some prices increasing by as much as 64.29% [3]. - The price of G.652.D fiber has exceeded 50 yuan per core kilometer, compared to 20 yuan in November 2025 and 35.6 yuan in January 2026, indicating a robust market [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The fiber optic market is experiencing sustained price increases due to rapid growth in AI and computing networks, with a projected global demand increase of 4.1% for fiber optic cables by 2025, and a 75.9% increase in data center fiber cable demand [4]. - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to the long expansion cycle for optical fiber preform, which is approximately two years, suggesting continued price potential for fiber optic cables [4]. Group 4: Key Companies - The report highlights several core manufacturers in the fiber optic cable sector, including Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, TeFa Information Technology, Yongding Co., and FiberHome Technologies [5].

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 核心结论 分析师 【电子】2026 年电子年度策略：端云算力同频共振，自主可控步履铿锵 AI 硬件：国产 AI 芯片发展迅速，算力高景气度下，PCB、存储等供不应求。 半导体：全球资本开支重回增长轨道，晶圆扩产驱动设备国产化与先进封装 高景气。 端侧：AI 重塑终端形态，硬件升级与新兴品类开启新一轮创新周期。 【航海装备Ⅱ】船舶行业系列报告之二：船舶：摘取皇冠明珠，国产 LNG 船扬帆起航 LNG 运输船是现代造船工业皇冠上璀璨的明珠，其技术壁垒较高，是中国 造船业一直想要突破的高端船舶产品。2008 年 4 月 3 日，中国首制 14.7 万 立方米系列 LNG 船"大鹏昊"成功交付，打破了西方垄断 LNG 船市场的局 面，成功实现了"国轮国造"。 【计算机】英伟达 LPU 方案印证专用推理芯片的可行性 我们认为：英伟达将 LPU 整合进自身 AI 芯片体系，展现了专用推理芯片 （ASIC/DSA）在生成式 AI 推理计算中的重要性。这或将印证国产 AI 芯片 通过专业推理架构，在 AI 推理侧实现性能突破的可能性。AI 推理芯片的高 速迭代，或将推 ...

Summary of Hengtong Optic-Electric Conference Call Company Overview - Hengtong Optic-Electric has established a comprehensive layout in optical communication, smart grid, marine business, and industrial intelligence, with stable revenue growth but profit impacted by a decline in optical communication business. Future growth is expected to be driven by marine business [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Revenue and Profit Structure - By 2025, the revenue contribution from smart grid and semiconductors is expected to be significant, with marine power and marine communication being the main profit contributors, particularly marine power which is projected to exceed 30% of profits [2][4]. - The smart grid business accounts for approximately 40% of revenue, with expected growth rates of 10%-20% and profit margins projected to reach 13%-15% [3][14]. Changes in Global Fiber Optic Demand - Global demand for fiber optic cables is expected to reach 570-580 million core kilometers by 2025, with data center and drone fiber demand projected to exceed 100 million core kilometers, accounting for about 20% of total demand [5]. - The demand structure has shifted significantly, with data centers and special-purpose fibers driving growth, contrasting with 90% of demand coming from telecom networks five years ago [5]. Price Trends in Fiber Optics - Retail prices for fiber optic cables are expected to stabilize and rise starting in the second half of 2025, with prices projected to double in early 2026, currently exceeding 50 yuan per core kilometer [6]. - The price increase is driven by high demand from data centers and drones, leading to supply constraints, with domestic utilization rates reaching 90% [6]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The profitability of the fiber optic industry is highly concentrated in the optical preform segment, with profit concentration potentially exceeding 70%, and even reaching 80%-90% [7]. - Hengtong's optical preform production capacity ranks among the top three, utilizing a silicon organic route that offers cost advantages over traditional materials, potentially increasing gross margins by nearly 5 percentage points [8]. Marine Cable and Marine Engineering Business Outlook - Hengtong's marine cable and marine engineering orders are expected to maintain at 7 billion yuan or higher, with significant projects like the Liaoning high-voltage direct current marine cable project valued at approximately 1.5-1.6 billion yuan [9][10]. - The marine cable business is projected to grow by 30%-40% in revenue by 2026, with margins expected to improve as high-voltage orders increase [10]. Domestic and International Market Dynamics - Domestic growth in marine cable orders is anticipated from regions like Jiangsu and Hainan, with significant projects expected to commence in 2026 [11]. - Internationally, Hengtong is focusing on Southeast Asia, with potential growth from offshore wind projects in Vietnam and India, and tracking significant projects like the "Power Regional Interconnection" initiative [12][13]. Industrial New Energy Smart Control Business - This segment is expected to grow faster than the smart grid business, with annual revenue growth projected at around 20% or higher, although its current contribution to overall profits is limited [15]. Future Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include the anticipated price increases in fiber optics and the expansion of marine energy-related businesses, alongside stable contributions from the smart grid sector [16][17].

中天科技在光纤光缆、海缆等细分领域的行业位置如何，业务版图与收入/利润 结构大致是什么格局？ 中天科技 20260227 摘要 中天科技业务多元，电力电缆为主要收入来源，其次是光通信和海缆。 海洋业务利润贡献受周期影响波动，电力传输板块稳定增长成为利润大 头，公司整体业绩呈小幅震荡。 全球光纤光缆行业反弹由 AI 数据中心和特种需求驱动，需求结构变化显 著，运营商需求占比下降，数据中心和特种需求占比提升，行业自 25 年下半年进入新一轮涨价周期。 中天科技光通信业务综合竞争力国内领先，全球化布局均衡，通过海外 工厂本地化生产。本轮行业景气上行，公司有望充分受益于需求上行与 涨价红利。 展望 26-27 年，预计海洋业务利润占比将显著提升，光通信板块借助 AI 数据中心需求与无人机等特种需求实现业绩贡献增长，电力电缆利润占 比最大，但后续预计出现再平衡。 海洋板块在手订单充裕，亨通与中天整体在手订单体量约在 100–140 亿元区间，大部分项目将在 26 年开始交付，500kV 海缆交付占比预计 提升，带动海洋板块毛利率呈现改善趋势。 Q&A 中天科技为国内领先的光纤光缆及海缆厂商，海缆业务体量位居国内第 2– ...

两会召开在即，科技创新将成为关注重点 眽眻眽睁 年 眾 月 眼 日 光通信相关标的：中际旭创（眾眻眻眾眻睃）， 新易盛（眾眻眻着眻眽）等；IDC 相关标 的：光环新网（眾眻眻眾睃眾）等；光纤光缆龙头：长飞光纤（睁眻眼睃睁睄），亨通光电 （睁眻眻眿睃睂），中天科技（睁眻眻着眽眽）等；量子通信：国盾量子（睁睃睃眻眽睂）等； 运营商相关标的：中国移动（A+H），中国电信（A+H），中国联通（A+H） 等；卫星互联网相关标的：通宇通讯（眻眻眽睂睄眽），普天科技（眻眻眽着眿眿）等。 风险提示：AIGC 应用推广不及预期的风险；国内外政策和技术摩擦的不确定 性风险；着G 规模化商用推进不及预期的风险等。 通信行业 | | | 分析师 赵良毕 ：眻眼眻-睃眻睄眽-睂睁眼睄 ：zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 行业周报 · 通信行业 分析师登记编码：S眻眼眾眻着眽眽眻眾眻眻眻眾 研究助理：刘璐 ：yj.liulu@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 眾眻眻 表现图 眽眻眽睁-眻眽-眽睃 资料来源：Wind，中国银河证券研究院 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 2025/2/ ...

行业周报 · 通信行业 两会召开在即，科技创新将成为关注重点 眽眻眽睁 年 眾 月 眼 日 光通信相关标的：中际旭创（眾眻眻眾眻睃）， 新易盛（眾眻眻着眻眽）等；IDC 相关标 的：光环新网（眾眻眻眾睃眾）等；光纤光缆龙头：长飞光纤（睁眻眼睃睁睄），亨通光电 （睁眻眻眿睃睂），中天科技（睁眻眻着眽眽）等；量子通信：国盾量子（睁睃睃眻眽睂）等； 运营商相关标的：中国移动（A+H），中国电信（A+H），中国联通（A+H） 等；卫星互联网相关标的：通宇通讯（眻眻眽睂睄眽），普天科技（眻眻眽着眿眿）等。 风险提示：AIGC 应用推广不及预期的风险；国内外政策和技术摩擦的不确定 性风险；着G 规模化商用推进不及预期的风险等。 通信行业 | | | 分析师 赵良毕 ：眻眼眻-睃眻睄眽-睂睁眼睄 ：zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S眻眼眾眻着眽眽眻眾眻眻眻眾 研究助理：刘璐 ：yj.liulu@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 眾眻眻 表现图 眽眻眽睁-眻眽-眽睃 资料来源：Wind，中国银河证券研究院 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 2025/2/ ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 电力设备 储能：2026 年 1 月国内储能 EPC 中标规模 4.92GW/12.42GWh。2026 年 1 月国内储能 EPC 中标项目共 25 个，总装机规模达 4916.5MW/12420.28MWh，项目单体平均规模为 196.7MW/496.8MWh，较 2025 年同期提升超 30%。2025 年国内新型储能新增装机 59GW/175GWh，2h 储能系统价格 0.55 元/wh，预计 2026 年碳酸锂价格上涨推动储能均价 上行。建议关注方向：建议关注国内外增速确定性高的大储方向，关注阳光电源、阿特斯、 海博思创、上能电气、科华数据、三晖电气、东方日升。 新能源车：2 月 27 日，鑫椤锂电公布 3 月锂电预排产数据。其中，国内电池样本企业 3 月 排产 149.59GWh，环比+21.93%；海外电池样本企业 22.4GWh，环比+11.27%；正极为 19.47 万吨，环比+23.3%；负极为 16.3 万吨，环比+16.42%；隔膜为 18.95 亿平，环比 +8.7%；电解液为 10.75 万吨， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Nvidia's performance exceeded expectations, with Q4 FY2026 revenue reaching $68.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 19%. The data center business revenue was $62.3 billion, up 75% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the continuous release of Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra products [5][13] - DeepSeek, in collaboration with Tsinghua University and Peking University, introduced the DualPath system to address storage bandwidth bottlenecks in LLM inference, achieving an average throughput increase of 1.96 times [6][16] - The global AI industry is expected to resonate, with significant capital expenditure increases from major players like Google and Meta, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI-related sectors [14][18] Summary by Sections Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's Q4 FY2026 revenue was $68.1 billion, with a 73% year-on-year growth and a 19% quarter-on-quarter growth. Data center revenue reached $62.3 billion, marking a 75% year-on-year increase and a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase. The growth was primarily due to the release of Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra products, with the Grace Blackwell system contributing approximately two-thirds of the data center revenue [5][13][14] DeepSeek Innovation - DeepSeek's DualPath system addresses the KV-Cache storage bottleneck in LLM inference, significantly improving online inference throughput by 1.96 times. This innovation is seen as a milestone in AI computing, enhancing hardware utilization and facilitating the commercial application of large models [6][16] AI Industry Outlook - The report highlights a strong outlook for the AI industry, with major companies like Google and Meta increasing their capital expenditures significantly. This trend is expected to support the growth of AI computing and related technologies [14][18] Communication Data Tracking - As of December 2025, China had 4.84 million 5G base stations, with 1.204 billion 5G mobile users, reflecting an 18.74% year-on-year growth. However, 5G mobile phone shipments decreased by 27.3% year-on-year [28][30][41]