2026 年 2 月 27 日星期五 研究员：张毅驰 从业资格：F03108196 交易咨询资格：Z0021480 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 沪铜主力合约 夜盘收盘价 CU2604 102550 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价下跌 0.4 7%。沪铜次主力合约 CU2605 夜盘收于 102870 元/吨，跌幅 0.42%。截止北京时间 2026-02-27 06:00，COMEX 铜主力合约 HGK26E 收盘价为 6.025 美元/磅（按汇率 换算为 铜主力合约 6.8397 90849 元/吨），较上一交易日下跌 0.31%。LME CA03M E 收于 13259 美元/吨（按汇率 6.8397 换算为 90688 元/吨），跌幅 0.68%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色 | 铜 | 震荡偏多 | 【重要资讯】 1、2 月 26 日，财联社资讯，日本半导体材料厂 Resonac 宣布自 3 月 1 日起上调涨铜 箔基板（CCL）、黏合胶片等印刷电路板（PCB）材料售价，涨幅达 30%以上。 2、 ...

每经AI快讯，2月25日，欧洲斯托克600基础资源指数一度上涨2.2%，至2008年5月以来的盘中最高水 平，成为欧洲斯托克600指数中表现最佳的板块。弗雷斯尼洛上涨6.3%，力拓上涨2.6%，英美公司涨 4.5%，嘉能可涨2.4%，Antofagasta涨4.7%，波兰铜业涨5.1%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

周四欧洲股市走低，投资者正在评估空客、雷诺、雀巢等公司的财报表现。 伦敦时间中午 12 点过后不久，欧洲斯托克 600 指数下跌 0.6%。英国富时 100 指数下跌 0.6%，德国 DAX 指数下跌 0.9%，法国 CAC 40 指数下跌 0.8%。 这家瑞士食品巨头表示，正就出售冰淇淋业务给哈根达斯母公司 Froneri 进行深入谈判。此前，该公司 上月召回了含有毒素的婴儿配方奶粉。雀巢股价最新上涨 2.5%。 全球市场情绪也备受关注。周三晚间，美国股指期货小幅震荡，此前美股三大指数周三收涨，受 "七巨 头" 科技股全线上涨以及金融、能源板块走强提振。 美国投资者还在解读美联储 1 月会议纪要，纪要显示央行官员对未来货币政策前景存在分歧。 主要股指实时数据（截至发稿） | 指数 | 点位 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CAC 40 | 8，366.43 | -62.60 | -0.74% | | 富时 MIB | 45，615.26 | -745.83 | -1.61% | | 富时 100 | 10，603.92 | -82.26 | -0.77% | ...

机构观点 机构对必和必拓乐观情绪增强，主要基于铜业务前景。花旗集团于2月10日将目标股价从2400便士上调 至2600便士，强调其铜业务增长潜力及对全球铜供应缺口的预期。高盛2月10日报告指出，大宗商品市 场进入"高波动时代"，铜等金属因AI与电气化需求长期看涨，标普全球研究预计到2040年全球铜需求增 长约50%。摩根大通2月8日报告认为铜价回调属技术性修正，二季度有望反弹，支撑矿业股估值。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网根据经济观察网2026年2月13日的报道，必和必拓近期热点集中于股东回报与战略项目。公 司已宣布2026财年股东回报计划，包括现金分红1.9亿美元(分两期支付，第二期预计2026年6月完成)和 股票回购3亿美元(未来12个月内执行)，同时承诺2025-2027年每年分红比例不低于净利润的65%。在项 目推进方面，必和必拓计划未来两个财年每年资本支出约110亿美元，重点推进加拿大Jansen钾肥项目 (预计2027年中期投产)，并通过合资公司Vicu a将阿根廷铜矿项目2026年投资额翻倍至约8亿美元，以提 升铜产能。行业层面，力拓与嘉能可并购谈判于2月5日终止，可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto announced on February 5, 2026, its withdrawal from the merger talks with Glencore due to valuation disagreements, leading to the collapse of a potential deal that could have created the world's largest mining company [1] Stock Performance - Following the breakdown of the merger talks, Rio Tinto's stock experienced significant volatility, dropping 5.56% to $91.12 on February 5, 2026, but rebounding in subsequent days with a total increase of 9.92% from February 5 to February 12, 2026 [2] - The stock closed at $100.16 on February 12, 2026, reflecting a recovery trend, while the overall industrial metals and mining sector showed signs of improvement during the same period [2] Institutional Insights - JPMorgan resumed coverage of Rio Tinto on February 6, 2026, with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 7500 pence (approximately $94), highlighting the company's cash flow advantages in iron ore and its strategic expansion into copper and other materials [3] - The firm emphasized that the focus has returned to Rio Tinto's fundamentals following the failed merger talks, with a strategic blueprint released in December 2025 outlining a focus on iron ore, copper, and aluminum [3]

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto's stock price increased by 2.11% to $99.29 on February 11, 2026, following the breakdown of merger talks with Glencore, indicating that the rise was not driven by merger expectations [1] Recent Events - On February 5, 2026, Rio Tinto announced its withdrawal from acquisition talks with Glencore due to valuation disagreements. According to UK merger regulations, Rio Tinto cannot seek to acquire Glencore again for at least six months unless a competitive bidder emerges [2] Stock Price Movement Reasons - After the merger talks collapsed, market focus shifted back to Rio Tinto's fundamentals. JPMorgan resumed coverage on February 6, giving a "buy" rating with a target price of approximately $94, highlighting the company's cash flow advantages from iron ore, low-cost operations, and expansion into strategic materials like copper as core value supports [3] - The industrial metals and mining sector rose by 2.45% on February 11, benefiting Rio Tinto as a leading player in the industry [3] Performance Strategy - In its strategic blueprint released in December 2025, Rio Tinto emphasized its focus on iron ore, copper, and aluminum, planning to enhance efficiency through asset sales and cost control. The copper production guidance for 2026 is set at 800,000 to 870,000 tons, with unit costs reduced to 80-100 cents per pound, reinforcing market expectations for profit improvement [4] Financial and Technical Aspects - From February 5 to 11, Rio Tinto's stock price increased by 2.91% with a volatility of 9.01%, and trading volume reached approximately $1.785 billion, indicating a gradual return of funds after initial emotional impacts. On February 11, the volume ratio was 0.58, with trading remaining relatively stable, and the stock broke through previous highs, indicating a strong technical pattern [5]

Group 1 - Rio Tinto (RIO.N) announced its withdrawal from acquisition talks with Glencore (GLNCY.US) due to valuation disagreements, which led to the collapse of a potential merger that could have created the world's largest mining company [1] - Rio Tinto emphasized that it could not reach an agreement that would create value for its shareholders, while Glencore believed that Rio Tinto's terms undervalued its potential, particularly in copper business [1] - According to UK merger regulations, Rio Tinto cannot seek acquisition for at least six months unless specific circumstances arise [1] Group 2 - Following the breakdown of merger talks, Rio Tinto's stock price experienced significant volatility, dropping 5.56% to $91.12 on February 5, 2026, with trading volume increasing to approximately $644 million [2] - The stock partially recovered in the following days, with increases of 2.51% on February 6, 3.68% on February 9, and a slight rise of 0.40% to $97.24 on February 10, resulting in a total price fluctuation of 0.79% and a volatility of 6.53% during this period [2] - During the same timeframe, the industrial metals and mining sector saw a slight increase of 0.16%, while the Dow Jones index rose by 0.10% [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan resumed coverage of Rio Tinto on February 6, 2026, assigning an "Overweight" rating with a target price set at 7500 pence (approximately $94) [3] - The analysis highlighted Rio Tinto's cash flow advantages from iron ore, low-cost operations, and strategic expansion into copper and other materials as the basis for the rating [3] - This viewpoint was released after the merger talks collapsed, emphasizing the company's long-term fundamentals [3]

长城证券研报指出，中国铝业拟收购巴西铝业，打开海外产能扩张空间。公司拟与国际矿业巨头力拓斥 资62.86亿元人民币，联合收购巴西铝业68.596%股权。前述收购完成后，巴西铝业将成为公司的附属公 司，纳入公司合并报表范围。巴西铝业目前拥有3 座在产铝土矿山，年铝土矿产量约200万吨，氧化铝 产能80万吨/年，电解铝产能43万吨/年，下游加工产能21.5万吨/年，原铝产量占比超过巴西市场三分之 一。此外，巴西铝业还控股或参股21座水电站和4个风电站，权益装机规模1.6吉瓦，年权益发电量约70 亿度，全部为可再生能源，且均为铝产业自备电。中国铝行业头部企业，综合实力位居全球铝行业前 列。结合公司2月4日收盘价，对应PE分别为15.1/10.0/6.5倍，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Market Overview - The software sector and cryptocurrency experienced a significant downturn, with the S&P 500 index falling by 1.23% to 6798.4 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.59% to 22540.59 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 1.2% to 48908.72 points, marking the worst three-day sell-off since April of the previous year [1][3] - Bitcoin dropped below $64,000, losing nearly half its value over the past six months, while spot silver saw a single-day decline of nearly 20% [1] Employment Data Impact - The recent weak U.S. employment data has halted the recent sector rotation, with 318 stocks in the S&P 500 declining. December job openings unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since 2020, and the number of layoffs reached the highest January level since the severe recession in 2009 [3] - Allianz's Chief Economic Advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, noted that layoffs are occurring despite GDP growth of approximately 4%, indicating a decoupling of employment from economic growth, which could have profound economic, political, and social implications [3] Company-Specific Developments - Amazon's stock plummeted over 10% after announcing a capital expenditure forecast of $200 billion for the year, significantly higher than the previous year's $130 billion and analyst expectations of $150 billion, which negatively impacted its profit guidance [3] - Nvidia's stock fell by 1.33%, while other major tech companies like Apple, Google, and Microsoft also saw declines, with Microsoft down 4.95% and Amazon down 4.42% [6] AI and Software Sector - The software sector faced pressure following the release of a new flagship model by AI company Anthropic, contributing to a broader sell-off in AI-related stocks. FaceSet dropped 7.21%, reaching its lowest point since March 2020, while Thomson Reuters fell over 5%, hitting a new low since 2021 [6] - Amid concerns over AI capital expenditures, some supply chain stocks performed well, such as Tianhong Technology, which rose 6.9% due to Google's $185 billion capital expenditure guidance [6] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed resilience, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.9%. Notable performances included NIO up 5.86% and Baidu up 0.73%, while Alibaba and JD.com saw slight declines [7] Other Industry News - Pandora, the world's largest jewelry company, surged 16.83% after announcing plans to reduce reliance on pure silver by introducing platinum-plated jewelry in response to rising silver prices [8] - The proposed merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore to form the world's largest mining group collapsed, with Glencore citing undervaluation of its contribution to the merger [9] - Nvidia announced delays in the release of its RTX 50 series graphics cards due to memory shortages, prioritizing AI chip production instead [10] - Hims & Hers Health plans to launch a cheaper generic version of the oral weight loss drug semaglutide, causing a significant drop in the stock price of Novo Nordisk, which had just received approval for its brand product [11]

芝商所上调黄金、白银期货保证金比例 美国1月计划裁员数量激增，创17年来当月最高水平 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 泽连斯基：下一轮乌美俄三方会谈可能在美国进行 欧洲央行维持三大利率不变 英国央行以一票之差维持利率不变 世界黄金协会：1月全球黄金ETF流入创纪录的187亿美元资金 工业和信息化部等八部门关于印发《中药工业高质量发展实施方案（2026—2030年）》的通知 美团：拟7.17亿美元收购叮咚买菜 市场盘点 周四，美元指数持续站稳脚跟，盘中一度逼近98关口，创近两周新高，最终收涨0.34%，报97.96；基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.182%，对美联储政策利率 敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.455%。 贵金属遭重挫，现货黄金开盘后急速下跌，并一度失守4800美元，随后又反弹超100美元，但在美盘时段金价继续震荡下跌，再度跌破4800大关，最终收跌 3.73%，报4779.41美元/盎司；现货白银在亚盘时段一度重挫10美元，随后陷入震荡，但在美盘时段继续扩大跌幅，并跌至70美元关口附 ...