Core Viewpoint - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is seen as a significant step towards stabilizing and improving expectations in the real estate industry, facilitating a shift from developers to asset managers and enhancing the value of existing commercial assets [2][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Market Response - The first batch of eight commercial real estate REITs has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total expected fundraising amount exceeding 30 billion yuan [2][4]. - The regulatory framework for commercial real estate REITs was officially introduced by the end of 2025, emphasizing support for assets with clear ownership and stable cash flows [3][8]. - The response from the industry has been positive, with significant participation from major developers and a wide range of asset types being included [4][9]. Group 2: Asset Types and Market Dynamics - The accepted REITs include various asset types such as hotels, office buildings, shopping centers, and service apartments, indicating a broadening of the asset categories eligible for REITs [2][4][5]. - The expansion of asset types allows previously self-held assets to have a channel for securitization, enhancing market liquidity and pricing capabilities [5][10]. - The inclusion of non-first-tier city assets in the REITs framework is expected to improve their market recognition and liquidity [5][10]. Group 3: Strategic Shift in Real Estate - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is viewed as a transition from a "development and sales" model to a "holding and operation" model, promoting asset management as a core competency [10][11]. - The REITs framework encourages developers to retain partial equity in projects, ensuring operational stability while allowing for market-based fundraising [11]. - The shift towards REITs is seen as a necessary adaptation for the real estate industry, which is currently undergoing significant adjustments [10][11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 5 周） 推荐（维持） 新房成交环比上涨，万科债务展期获新进展 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 02 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,279.48 | 0.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,766.97 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 1.8% | 5.3% | 9.6% | | 相对表现 | 2.4% | -8.3% | -11.0% | -7% 4% 15% 26% 25/0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a potential investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - As of early 2026, multiple regions have initiated old housing acquisitions, significantly accelerating the "old-for-new" program, supported by a reduction in the central bank's one-year relending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [1][3]. - Local governments are actively engaging in funding through various means, including fiscal support and bank loans, to facilitate the acquisition and renovation of old housing, thereby enhancing the supply of affordable rental housing [3]. - The report highlights that the government's direct acquisition of second-hand old houses is an effective measure to streamline the housing exchange process, reduce the exchange cycle, and simplify procedures, ultimately promoting the sales of new homes [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Old Housing Acquisition - The "old-for-new" service has been launched in various cities, with Shanghai and Hangzhou being notable examples where initial registrations have been completed and dynamic waiting lists established for families wishing to participate [1][2]. - Specific focus areas include older properties in urban centers, with clear ownership and reasonable pricing, aimed at facilitating housing exchanges for those in need [2]. Section 2: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, public funds held a mere 0.43% of their stock investment value in the real estate sector, indicating a significant underweight compared to standard industry allocation [4]. - The report suggests that high-energy cities are likely to benefit from urban renewal initiatives, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of the market [5]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Real estate companies with strong credit advantages and high product reputation in core cities, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [5]. 2. Public REITs with rich existing resources and strong operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [5]. 3. Long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and Greentown Service [5].

多地启动旧房收购， "以旧换新"明显提速 ——光大地产板块及重点公司跟踪报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 行业研究 要点 一、2026 开年，多地启动旧房收购，"以旧换新"明显提速。 1）1 月 15 日，央行宣布各类再贷款一年期利率从 1.5%下调到 1.25%，央行 2024 年 5 月设立的 3000 亿元保障性住房再贷款利率同步降至 1.25%。 2）1 月 22 日，上海奉贤发展（集团）在公众号发文，"以旧换新"服务已完成 首批 50 组家庭的正式登记，建立动态轮候机制，目前有 14 组家庭进入轮候（如 前 50 组家庭因故退出，轮候家庭按顺序递补）。1 月 25 日，杭州富阳乐居（杭 州富阳城市建设投资集团下属全资子公司）推出商品住房"以旧换新"，由富阳 乐居收购符合条件的旧房，并向旧房权属人（简称"换房人"）发放"以旧换新 抵价券"（旧房收购成交价格）及"以旧换新购房券"用于换房人购置新房。 3）2026 年 2 月 2 日，上海浦东、静安、徐汇三区和建设银行上海分行进行签 约，收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房。从具体实施方案来看，浦东新区优先聚 焦内环内、2000 年以前建成、单套建面低于 7 ...

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate market in January 2026, highlighting significant trends and changes in the sector, particularly among the top 100 real estate companies [1][3][4]. Key Points Market Performance - In January 2026, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 27.3% year-on-year and 49% month-on-month, indicating a significant market contraction [1][3]. - The top three companies experienced only a 1.7% decline, showcasing their stronger risk resilience compared to others [1][3]. - The second-hand housing market exceeded expectations, achieving a four-month consecutive increase, with transaction volumes reaching the second-highest point in 13 months [1][7]. New Housing Market - The new housing market in first-tier cities saw the largest decline, with transaction areas down by 28% year-on-year [1][12]. - In second-tier cities, Chengdu performed relatively well with a 39% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities maintained stable transaction volumes [1][12][13]. - New housing supply in 50 key cities dropped by 55% year-on-year and 62% month-on-month, marking the lowest level in 13 months [1][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply and demand for new homes have significantly contracted, with developers showing low enthusiasm for launching new projects [1][6]. - High-quality projects in core urban areas, such as low-density villas, continue to perform well, while most new projects face pressure due to reduced demand [1][6][15]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market is characterized by a price-driven demand, with many buyers opting for lower-priced homes [1][18][23]. - The market is experiencing a mismatch between new and old housing demands, with buyers favoring newer, more affordable second-hand homes [1][19]. Future Expectations - The market is expected to see a decline in new home sales in February 2026 due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with a continued divergence between new and second-hand homes [2][22]. - There is a noticeable trend of buyers, including those looking for improvements, shifting towards purchasing second-hand homes [22]. Land Market - The land market is currently not strongly correlated with the housing market, with low supply and demand levels observed [20][21]. - Developers are focusing on comprehensive value assessments for land acquisitions, which may not significantly boost new project launches [20][21]. Investment and Sales Forecast - The real estate sales growth for 2026 is projected to be around 5%, while investment growth is expected to be between 10% and 15% [26]. - The overall supply of new homes is anticipated to constrain sales, with significant limitations on the volume of land available for development [24][26]. Additional Insights - The market is witnessing a shift in buyer preferences, with a growing inclination towards larger, well-located properties, particularly in the second-hand market [22][23]. - The rental market dynamics are changing, with new rental properties becoming more appealing to younger generations compared to older housing stock [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the real estate market.

Group 1 - Hong Kong property stocks have risen again, with notable increases in share prices [2] - Greentown China (03900.HK) increased by 6.45%, reaching HKD 11.22 [2] - Sunac China (01918.HK) rose by 6.19%, trading at HKD 1.20 [2] - China Jinmao (00817.HK) saw a rise of 6.71%, with shares priced at HKD 1.75 [2] - New City Development (01030.HK) increased by 4.44%, with a share price of HKD 2.59 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The top 100 real estate companies in China are experiencing a significant reshuffling in their rankings as of January 2026, with a notable decline in overall sales figures compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In January 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 190.52 billion yuan, representing an 18.9% year-on-year decline [2]. - Only three companies achieved sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in January, a decrease of two compared to the same period last year [2]. - The number of companies with sales over 5 billion yuan increased to ten, up by two from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Ranking Changes - The top 10 rankings saw significant changes, with Poly Developments, China Overseas, and China Resources remaining in the top four, while Vanke dropped from fifth to ninth place [3]. - China Travel Investment emerged as a major dark horse, jumping from outside the top 40 to fifth place [3]. - China Jinmao rose from thirteenth to seventh, indicating intensified competition within the top tier [3]. Group 3: Performance of Private Enterprises - Among the 32 companies that experienced year-on-year growth in January, six private enterprises had growth rates exceeding 100% [3]. - Bangtai Group and China Construction Yipin entered the top 20 in sales, benefiting from strategic investments during market lows [3]. Group 4: New Entrants and Market Dynamics - Seven new companies entered the top 100 list in January, with four being small to medium-sized private enterprises [4]. - State-owned enterprises continue to dominate land acquisition, with companies like Yuexiu Property and China Resources maintaining strong investment levels [4]. Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - The policy environment is shifting towards stabilizing expectations, with measures such as extended tax rebates and loan extensions being implemented [4]. - The market is expected to see a gradual release of demand in March, driven by promotional activities from real estate companies before the Spring Festival [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The theme morphology aims to create a tool for thematic investment, identifying thematic opportunities through volume - price data and morphological analysis, and realizing the investability of thematic "indices" [6]. - On January 30, 2026, the latest output of theme morphology shows that new themes in right - side breakthrough include yellow rice wine, Hang Seng real estate, soybeans, etc.; themes in continuous right - side trend are photovoltaic, power equipment, display screen, aluminum, etc.; new themes in bottom stabilization and bottom reversal both include liquor [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogues Right - side Breakthrough Thematic Opportunities - Newly added themes are yellow rice wine, Hang Seng real estate, soybeans, etc. The 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD (Year - to - Date)涨幅 of the yellow rice wine index are 4%, 8%, and 7% respectively; those of the Hang Seng real estate and property management index are 7%, 15%, and 12% respectively; those of the soybean index are 13%, 15%, and 15% respectively [3][6][7]. Right - side Trend Thematic Opportunities - Continuously trending themes include photovoltaic, power equipment, display screen, aluminum, etc. For example, the 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD涨幅 of the photovoltaic index are - 4%, 16%, and 14% respectively; those of the aluminum industry index are - 1%, 15%, and 12% respectively [3][6][9]. Bottom Stabilization Thematic Opportunities - Newly added theme is liquor. The 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD涨幅 of the liquor index are 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively. Other themes in bottom stabilization include express delivery, jewelry, etc. [3][6][13]. Bottom Reversal Thematic Opportunities - Newly added theme is liquor. The 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD涨幅 of the liquor index are 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively. Other themes in bottom reversal include methanol, ophthalmic medical, etc. [3][6][15].

报告具体指出，华润置地、中国海外发展、建发国际三家龙头2025年盈利或按年跌15%至20%，但利润 规模仍属可观；绿城中国、越秀地产、中海宏洋、保利置业、新城控股等有望录得正向利润，惟幅度微 薄；龙湖集团、城建发展或出现小幅亏损；滨江集团与中国金茂核心利润则有望稳中有增。展望2026 年，中金认为房企将维持审慎经营策略，后续视销售走势动态调整。 来源：观点地产网 观点网讯：2月2日，中金公司发布最新房地产行业研究报告，预计2025年覆盖房企整体盈利较2024年继 续明显下行，平均销售额同比下降20%，拿地强度仅37%，低于市场预期。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization with various supportive policies being implemented by the central and local governments, which is expected to enhance market confidence [17] - New home sales are relatively flat, but leading real estate companies are demonstrating resilience, with the top three companies showing slight year-on-year sales growth [14] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a significant increase in transaction volume, with a year-on-year growth of 37.5% in 16 sample cities [15] - The average price decline of second-hand homes is slowing down, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [16] - The report anticipates that 2026 will see more favorable policies aimed at supporting the real estate market, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan [18] Market Performance - In January 2026, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was approximately 178.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.4% year-on-year decline, consistent with the overall trend for the year [14] - The A-share real estate sector underperformed the market with a decline of 2.21%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector outperformed with a gain of 5.71% [19][32] - The issuance of real estate credit bonds decreased significantly, with a net financing amount of -95.854 billion yuan in the week ending January 30, 2026 [19][38] REITs Market - The REITs index increased by 0.51% this week, with the property REITs index rising by 0.33% and the operating rights REITs index increasing by 0.74% [40][44] - The total transaction volume for REITs was 1.452 billion yuan, with property REITs accounting for 744 million yuan of this total [53] - Over the past month, the REITs index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.65 percentage points [50]