Core Viewpoint - The issuance of a set of gold and silver commemorative coins to celebrate the 120th anniversary of Chinese cinema highlights the cultural significance and achievements of the industry [1] Group 1 - The commemorative coins will be issued by the People's Bank of China on November 11, 2025 [1] - The issuance ceremony will take place during the opening ceremony of the 2025 China Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 403.8 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40% on November 11, 2025 [1] Summary by Category Monetary Policy - The operation was executed using a fixed rate and quantity tendering method [1] - The total amount of the reverse repurchase operation was 403.8 billion yuan, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] Market Impact - The interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation was set at 1.40% [1]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan after 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - Last week, the PBOC's reverse repos saw a net withdrawal of 1,572.2 billion yuan, the highest level since February 2024 [1] - The overall liquidity remains loose, with overnight funding rates (R001) stable at 1.36% and 7-day funding rates (R007) around 1.46% [1] Group 1 - The upcoming week (November 10-14) will see a significant decrease in reverse repo maturities to 495.8 billion yuan, while government bond net payments will rise to 424.2 billion yuan, indicating a potential for increased liquidity support from the PBOC [2] - Analysts suggest that despite the increase in government bond net payments, the PBOC is likely to maintain its liquidity support, which may stabilize funding rates around 1.35-1.36% for overnight rates and 1.47% for 7-day rates [3] - The PBOC's recent report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy tools in supporting inclusive finance and improving financial services in key areas such as employment and education [3] Group 2 - Overall, the payment pressure in November may be greater than in October, but with the PBOC's supportive stance, the risk of liquidity tightening is considered limited [4] - The PBOC's holdings in the government bond market are around 6%, indicating room for adjustment compared to developed countries [4] - Analysts recommend focusing less on daily fluctuations in funding prices, as the prevailing trend since June has been one of liquidity easing, with optimistic signals in recent funding characteristics [4]

一是金融支持乡村振兴更加有力，涉农领域金融资源加快倾斜，农户经营贷款和消费贷款余额保持增 长，脱贫人口贷款覆盖面稳步扩大。 五是融资配套机制不断完善，上线全国中小微企业资金流信用信息共享平台，金融信用信息基础数据库 对企业和其他组织的覆盖率不断提高，地方征信平台服务量保持高速增长，动产融资统一登记公示系统 有效促进动产融资业务增量扩面。政府性融资担保业务规模不断扩大。 六是多层次资本市场的包容性和普惠性不断增强。北交所、新三板普惠金融试点深入推进，农产品期货 期权品种日益丰富，服务农业风险管理需求的"保险+期货"项目持续增加，乡村振兴债券和乡村振兴资 产支持证券存续和发行规模保持稳定。 七是普惠保险产品供给体系进一步健全，重点粮食作物保险政策持续优化，保险密度和保险深度均有所 提升，农业保险风险保障金额和支付赔款金额规模增加。 展望下一阶段，报告提出，要通过营造适宜的货币金融环境、强化金融机构服务能力建设、加强重点领 域和重点群体金融支持、提升基础金融服务效率、建设普惠金融高质量发展生态等举措，引导金融机构 持续优化完善民营小微、"三农"、民生等重点领域和薄弱环节的金融服务，促进普惠金融量增、面扩、 价降、质 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is likely to continue to fluctuate. The central bank's restart of buying and selling government bonds is positive for bond market sentiment in the short - term. In the medium - term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the new fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve, and the market may maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to recover with fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, with both supply and demand under pressure. The non - manufacturing PMI met expectations and showed a slight improvement. The "anti - involution" has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. In terms of exports, October's export data was lower than expected, with exports to the US declining and non - US exports maintaining resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and as the economic growth rate in the first three quarters was relatively high, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not large. Policy may focus more on policies for the connection with next year, and there is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in October, and subsequent inflation and employment data will indicate whether there will be a rate cut in December [11]. - **Major Events**: The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed the bilateral local currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years. On November 5, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion US dollars of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, which were well - received by the market. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on US - originated goods. Some Fed officials expressed their views on interest rate cuts, and US financial system liquidity was approaching a dangerous level. China's October export and import data were released, and the foreign exchange reserve scale increased slightly [11][12][13]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.5722 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.43% [14]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.81%, up 1.14 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.16%, up 1.00 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, unchanged week - on - week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [19][23][26][29][31][36]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, while the service PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point [41]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In October, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry were under pressure. The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.9 percentage points. Domestic demand recovery was still insufficient [47]. - **Price Index**: In September, CPI同比 decreased by 0.3%, core CPI同比 increased by 1.0%, and PPI同比 decreased by 2.3%. In terms of month - on - month data, CPI环比 was 0.1%, core CPI环比 was 0.0%, and PPI环比 was 0.0% [50]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, China's import and export data were slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 25.1% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate of 10.9% year - on - year [53]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [56]. - **Investment and Real Estate**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 13.9%. In September, the month - on - month growth rate of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate was - 5.2% [59]. - **Foreign Economy** - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the US GDP at current prices on an annualized basis was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI data were released, and the ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI data were also reported. In August, the order amount of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000 [68][71][74]. - **EU and Eurozone Economy**: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In September, the eurozone CPI and core CPI data were released, and in October, the manufacturing and service PMI data were reported [74][77]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In September, the M1 growth rate was 7.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%. The M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow. The social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan. The growth of social financing mainly came from government bonds [82]. - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector remained stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 5.94%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 20.20% [85]. - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In September, the MLF balance was 5.85 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1.2008 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.46% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: Presented the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [92]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Charts**: Presented charts of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, the Fed's target interest rate, and exchange rates [95][97][100].

| 2025.06 | | 2025.07 | | 2025.08 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 亿美元 | ZSDR | 亿美元 | ZSDR | 亿美元 | 亿SDR | 亿美元 | | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100millio | | USD | SDR | USD | SDR | USD | SDR | USD | | 33174.22 | 24144.20 | 32922.35 | 24298.54 | 33221.54 | 24273.35 | 33386. | | 112.86 | 82.14 | 109.28 | 80.65 | 113.40 | 82.86 | 112. | | 559.30 | 407.06 | 552.69 | 407.92 | 560.13 | 409.26 | 561. | | 2429.31 | 1768.05 | 2439.85 | 1800.75 | 2 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 141.7 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40% on November 7, 2025 [1][2] Summary by Category Operation Details - The operation was carried out using a fixed rate and quantity tendering method [1] - The total amount bid and the amount awarded were both 141.7 billion yuan [2] Interest Rate - The interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation was set at 1.40% [2]

Core Insights - The current real estate market is characterized by a prolonged decline in housing prices, with a significant reduction in the number of buyers willing to purchase properties [1][3] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities has decreased by 0.84% month-on-month, with no city reporting an increase [1] - Although new housing prices have seen a slight increase of 0.28%, this is largely attributed to developers maintaining appearances and local governments controlling record prices [1] Market Trends - In October, first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing significant declines in second-hand housing transactions, with Beijing seeing a 23.7% month-on-month drop in signed contracts [3] - Shenzhen's total residential transactions have decreased by 10.3%, indicating a broader market contraction even in previously high-performing areas [3] - The proportion of residents expecting housing prices to rise has fallen below 10% for two consecutive quarters, a stark contrast to previous years when this figure was often above 20% [3] Consumer Behavior - There has been a notable shift in consumer spending priorities, with home purchases dropping out of the top five planned expenditures, as individuals prefer to spend on travel and entertainment instead [5] - The market is increasingly polarized, with high-end properties remaining relatively stable while the demand for entry-level homes continues to decline [5] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen is 58,900 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% month-on-month, but the market is primarily supported by genuine first-time buyers rather than investors [5] Future Outlook - In the short term, real estate companies may increase property launches to boost performance, but this is unlikely to provide significant price support [7] - Long-term prospects may favor cities with strong population inflows and robust industrial support, suggesting that certain markets still have growth potential [7] - The era of easy profits in real estate, where properties could be bought blindly for guaranteed returns, is over, as evidenced by sellers willing to lower prices significantly to expedite sales [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend on November 6, 2025, with the technology sector leading the way. The market is expected to experience some short - term fluctuations but has limited downside risks. For the bond market, there are opportunities for appropriate long - positions and positive arbitrage strategies. In the precious metals market, there is a long - term bullish outlook, but short - term oscillations are expected. Different commodities in the futures market have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions provided for each [3][5][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On November 6, the A - share market rose across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.97% at 4007.76 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also closed higher, and the basis discounts of the main contracts were repaired. The semiconductor industry chain rebounded strongly, while the consumer industry corrected [3][4] - **News**: Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce held talks with the US agricultural trade delegation. Overseas, the US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff collection [4] - **Funding**: The trading volume of the A - share market increased by over 300 billion yuan, with a total turnover of 2.06 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe as the market may experience a slight callback after reaching a high and is waiting to stabilize [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures contracts closed lower, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose [6] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. However, the inter - bank liquidity remained loose [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to take appropriate long - positions in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the spot - futures strategy [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US labor market contraction signals emerged in October, and the UK central bank paused interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. The international gold price closed at $3975.88 per ounce, down 0.07%, and the international silver price closed at $47.983 per ounce, up 0.02% [8][9][10] - **Outlook**: In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, the international gold price is expected to oscillate between $3900 - $4030, and the silver price between $47 - $49 [10] - **Funding**: ETF funds have flowed out due to the recent price fluctuations, and investors' attitudes are cautious [12] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies showed certain ranges [13] - **Container Shipping Index**: As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 7.92% month - on - month, while the US - West route index increased by 14.43% [13] - **Fundamentals**: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year, and the demand in different regions showed different characteristics as reflected by PMI data [14] - **Logic**: The futures market declined, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 1800 - 2000 points [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy the December contract at low prices in the short - term [14] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 6, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased, and downstream demand showed a short - term recovery [14] - **Macro**: The US market liquidity tightened, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was being heard, which may affect copper prices [15] - **Supply**: The copper concentrate spot TC remained low. The electrolytic copper production in October decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [16] - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and downstream demand showed strong resilience [16][17] - **Inventory**: LME, domestic social, and COMEX copper inventories all increased [17] - **Logic**: The copper price is expected to show an upward trend in the long - term due to supply - demand contradictions, but short - term price increases may suppress demand [18] - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the resistance at 86500 [18] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [18] Alumina - **Spot**: On November 6, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with a shrinking north - south price difference [18] - **Supply**: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased, and the operating rate decreased slightly. In November, the supply is expected to remain in surplus, but the situation may improve [19] - **Inventory**: Alumina inventories in ports, plants, and warehouses all increased [19] - **Logic**: The alumina price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - **View**: Weakly oscillating [20] Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the spot premium decreased [22] - **Supply**: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [22] - **Demand**: Downstream processing industries entered the peak season, but the weekly operating rate declined [22] - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream consumer area inventories increased slightly, while LME inventories decreased [23] - **Logic**: The price increase of the main contract was driven by overseas news, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate between 20500 - 21500 yuan/ton [24] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [25] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [25] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [25] - **Supply**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the supply of raw materials remained tight [25] - **Demand**: The demand showed a mild recovery, but the order volume did not increase significantly [26] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased slightly, and the absolute inventory remained high [26] - **Logic**: The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [27] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD01 and short on AL01 when the spread is above 550 [28] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [28] Zinc - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots remained stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [28] - **Supply**: The zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, and the zinc production from January to October increased. The subsequent supply increase may be limited [29] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations [30] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventories decreased, while LME inventories were basically stable [30] - **Logic**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but may remain range - bound. Upward or downward breakthroughs depend on demand improvement or inventory changes [31] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22300 - 23000 yuan/ton [31] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [31] Tin - **Spot**: On November 6, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was mainly for rigid demand [31] - **Supply**: In September, the domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved slightly, but the overall supply remained tight [32] - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the solder operating rate increased, but the traditional consumer electronics and other fields had weak demand. The LME inventory increased, while the domestic inventory decreased [33] - **Logic**: The market sentiment improved, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - **Near - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [34] Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 6, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [34] - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel production decreased, but the overall production remained at a high level [35] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, the demand for stainless steel was weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the short - term but faced challenges in the medium - term [35] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [35] - **Logic**: The macro - environment was weak, but the cost was supported. The price is expected to oscillate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [36] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [37] - **Short - term View**: Range - bound oscillation [37] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable [38] - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price decreased, and the chromium iron market was weak [38] - **Supply**: In September and October, the domestic stainless steel production increased. The supply pressure remained [39] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity declined [39] - **Logic**: The macro - driving force weakened, and the fundamentals were under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [40] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [41] - **Short - term View**: Weakly oscillating [41] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [41] - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased, and last week's production also showed a slight increase [42] - **Demand**: The demand was optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials were expected to increase [42] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased last week [43] - **Logic**: The price was supported by strong fundamentals in the short - term. However, the trading logic has switched, and the price is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [45] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [46] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation adjustment [46] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, the basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was slightly stronger [46] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [46] - **Supply**: From January to September, the iron element production increased. In October and November, the molten iron production decreased, and the five major steel products' production also declined [46] - **Demand**: Domestic demand was weak, exports were high, and the apparent demand decreased [47] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, the rebar inventory decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [47] - **View**: The steel market was slightly stronger, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil [48][49] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [50] - **Futures**: The iron ore futures prices increased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [50] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore products was provided [50] - **Demand**: As of November 6, the daily molten iron production decreased, and the demand for iron ore weakened [50] - **Supply**: Last week, the global iron ore shipment decreased, but the port arrivals increased significantly [51] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, the daily port clearing volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [51] - **View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [51] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 6, the coking coal futures rebounded, the Shanxi coal - coke price was strong, and the Mongolian coal price was high [52] - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased slightly, and the production and inventory showed different trends [52][53] - **Demand**: The production of coke by independent coking plants and steel mills decreased, and the demand for coking coal weakened [54] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly [55] - **View**: The coking coal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [56] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 6, the coke futures rebounded. The third - round price increase of coke was implemented, and there is still an expectation of a further increase [57][61] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was negative [58] - **Supply**: The daily production of coke decreased, and the cost was supported by the rising coking coal price [59][61] - **Demand**: The iron water production decreased, and the steel price was weak, which suppressed the coke price increase [60][61] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased slightly, and the supply - demand was tight [61] - **View**: The coke price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On November 6, the domestic soybean meal price was stable or decreased, and the rapeseed meal price increased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [63] - **Fundamentals**: China adjusted the tariff on US imports, and there were various news about the soybean production and trade in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [63][64] - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price fell sharply. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, but the cost support was strong, and the soybean meal price was expected to be supported [64][65] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated, and the national average price increased slightly [66] - **Market Data**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October, and the profit of live pig farming decreased [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to continue holding the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy and be cautiously bullish on the unilateral position [67] Corn - **Spot Price**: On November 6, the corn price in Northeast China and North China was relatively stable, and the port price was slightly weak [68] - **Fundamentals**: The corn inventory in northern ports and Guangdong ports showed different trends, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises also changed [68][69] - **Market Outlook**: The corn

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has resumed the trading of government bonds in October 2023, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan, marking the end of a suspension that began in January 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Resumption - The resumption of government bond trading is attributed to improved market conditions, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to approximately 1.8% and a widening yield spread [2]. - The current state of the bond market is considered stable, providing a conducive environment for the resumption of operations [2]. Group 2: Benefits of Resuming Operations - Resuming government bond trading supports the real economy, enhances the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and helps to release liquidity while stabilizing market expectations [3]. - This action enriches the monetary policy toolkit, enhances the financial functions of government bonds, and strengthens the pricing benchmark role of the yield curve [4]. Group 3: October's Net Injection Considerations - The net buying operation reflects the central bank's goal to nurture liquidity in the market and stabilize expectations in the bond market [5]. - The relatively low net buying scale of 20 billion yuan indicates the central bank's intention to avoid rapid declines in interest rates and excessive influence on market expectations [6].