Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate in the near term due to factors such as a slight decrease in social inventory, rising coal prices, upcoming end of maintenance for production enterprises like Hangjin Technology, and high futures warehouse receipts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has slightly increased but is still at a low level. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has lowered its November quotation by $30 - $40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export outlook for Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. However, exports in September were still good, and export orders have not significantly declined. Social inventory has slightly decreased but remains high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,655 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,695 yuan per ton, and it closed at 4,670 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.26% and an increase in open interest of 7,046 lots to 1,243,783 lots [2] - On November 4, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4,610 yuan per ton. The closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,670 yuan per ton, with a basis of - 60 yuan per ton, strengthening by 12 yuan per ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The output of plants such as Inner Mongolia Junzheng and Shandong Xinfa has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton - per - year plant which started mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton - per - year plant which is expected to operate stably by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton - per - year plant which was put into operation in early September and is now nearly at full capacity, and Gansu Yaowang's and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton - per - year plants which are operating at low loads after trial runs [4] - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. New construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%. Construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.4%. Completion area was 311.29 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of November 2, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.83% week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of October 30, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% week - on - week to 1.03 million tons, 25.09% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory has slightly decreased but remains high [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure from demand, with different products facing various supply - demand situations. Positive and negative factors coexist, and investors need to pay attention to specific product trends and relevant influencing factors [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summaries by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had narrow intraday fluctuations. The demand is weak, but the maintenance of Binzhou PDH device may support price stabilization [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. The supply of polyethylene increased due to reduced maintenance and new production, while demand weakened. Polypropylene faced supply pressure from new capacity and reduced maintenance, and demand was limited by low profit [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated around 5,500 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and there are medium - term negatives. The strategy is mainly month - spread reverse arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were weak. The cost support was insufficient, and the high inventory pressure continued [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation. The strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, but inventory increased. The supply pressure is high, and the strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation in mid - to late November. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell sharply. High inventory and weak demand persisted, waiting for supply reduction and demand improvement [6] - Urea prices oscillated narrowly. Downstream demand increased, and inventory decreased, but the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was at a low level due to weak cost support, high supply, and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda prices were slightly stronger, but high inventory and weak demand may keep prices low. Attention should be paid to liquid chlorine prices [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to increased supply and reduced demand. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash [8] - Glass prices rose. Inventory is expected to decrease, but cost increase and insufficient orders may limit the rise [8]

发布时间：2025年11月03日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%，PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于 近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12 月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50 美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前出口签单暂 未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on November 3, 2025. Some commodities like rapeseed meal and SC crude oil rose, while others such as BR rubber and methanol declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to various factors such as supply - side changes, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical events [6][7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on November 3, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Rapeseed meal rose over 4%, and many commodities including SC crude oil and LU fuel oil rose over 1%. On the other hand, BR rubber fell over 3%, and methanol and soda ash fell over 2%. In the stock index futures and bond futures markets, there were also different degrees of rise and fall. In terms of capital flow, some contracts like Shanghai copper 2512 had capital inflows, while others such as Shanghai gold 2512 had capital outflows [6][7]. b) Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper opened flat and closed higher. The shortage of copper concentrate and production cuts in the smelting end make copper production tend to decline. Although the short - term price was affected by the Fed's statement and domestic PMI data, the long - term trend is still strong [9][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and moved high, with prices in a narrow - range shock. The supply side is growing moderately, and the demand side is strong. The inventory has been continuously reduced, indicating a tight supply - demand pattern. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the upstream [12]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the supply is in an oversupply pattern, factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela limit Russian oil exports. The price is expected to fluctuate in the near future [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side has a slight reduction in production, and the downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. Considering the supply - demand situation and the trend of crude oil prices, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [15]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply side has new production capacity and some device overhauls. The cost is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. The demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [17]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream demand is affected by the season. There is new production capacity on the supply side. Although the demand in the peak season is not as good as expected, the future demand of agricultural film may bring some support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply side has an increase in start - up rate, and the downstream start - up rate is still at a low level. The export is expected to weaken, and the inventory pressure is still large. Considering various factors, it is expected to fluctuate in the near future [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price opened low and closed high with a decline. The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The profit of coke enterprises is negative, and the demand of steel mills is expected to recover. The supply - demand balance pattern is maintained, and the upward trend remains unchanged [21][22]. - **Urea**: It opened low and fluctuated weakly. The production has recovered rapidly, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The downstream demand is mainly for wheat fertilizer and compound fertilizer winter storage, and the inventory is in the process of de - stocking but still in the accumulation cycle. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In November, the caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. With fewer maintenance enterprises, the supply is expected to increase. The price is weakly stable, and the overall trend is bearish. For PVC, from November to December, the supply pressure will continue due to new production capacity, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating pattern [2][3]. - Futures trading for both caustic soda and PVC should adopt a bearish approach, and options trading should be on the sidelines [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The price of caustic soda futures has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand changes, and cost shifts. The spot price has also been affected by factors like downstream demand and inventory. In November, the price is expected to be weakly stable [2][8]. - **Supply**: In October, the industry's operation was at a high - level with fluctuations, and the inventory of caustic soda plants first decreased and then increased. The national average weekly weighted operating load rate was 85.55%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity was 82.53 tons, a 0.12% increase from the previous week [21][27]. - **Demand**: The main downstream, alumina, has a weakening demand for caustic soda. From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new alumina production capacity is 1230 tons, which is expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons per year [32]. - **Export**: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. In October, the estimated export profit declined [56]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: In October, the PVC spot price decline accelerated. The core contradiction is that the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved. The futures price has also been affected by factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [63][64]. - **Supply**: In October, there were 20 PVC maintenance enterprises, 3 fewer than in September. The utilization rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC production capacity was 78.10%, a 0.49 - percentage - point decrease from September. The utilization rate of ethylene - based PVC production capacity was 81.48%, a 2.46 - percentage - point increase from September [79][85]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate sector continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [94]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has been continuously increasing, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [102]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 1.44 tons, with a single - month import increase of 16.08% month - on - month and 7.73% year - on - year. The export volume was 34.64 tons, with a single - month export increase of 21.945% month - on - month and 24.53% year - on - year [120].

Group 1 - The stock of *ST Xinchao closed at 4.18 yuan on November 3, with a decline of 0.48% [1] - A block trade occurred involving 498,000 shares, totaling a transaction amount of 1.987 million yuan, with a discount rate of -4.55% [1] - The buyer was Jin Yuan Securities Co., Ltd. Shanghai Branch, and the seller was Guodu Securities Co., Ltd. Chengdu Tianyi Street Securities Branch [1] Group 2 - In the last three months, there has been one block trade for the stock, with a total transaction amount of 1.987 million yuan [1] - Over the past five trading days, the stock has increased by 0.97%, while the net outflow of main funds amounted to 21.34 million yuan [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on October 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with polysilicon and precious metals rising, and lithium carbonate and some industrial products falling. The capital flow shows significant inflows into polysilicon and soybean meal, and large outflows from copper and gold futures. Different varieties have different market conditions due to factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - policies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of October 31, domestic futures main contracts mostly fell. Polysilicon rose over 2%, and silver, soybean meal, and gold futures rose over 1%. Lithium carbonate fell over 3%, and many other commodities like 20 - rubber and methanol fell over 2%. In stock index futures, IF, IH, and IC declined, while IM rose slightly. In bond futures, 2 - year and 5 - year contracts fell slightly, and 10 - year and 30 - year contracts rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2601, soybean meal 2601, and PVC2601 had capital inflows, while copper 2512, gold 2512, and CSI 1000 2512 had large outflows [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Varieties - **Copper**: The Fed's reduced probability of a December rate cut and a stronger dollar suppress copper prices. Although the supply of copper concentrates is tight due to overseas mine accidents, high copper prices have curbed downstream demand. In the long - term, copper prices remain strong due to tight supply - demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. The cost of lithium ore supports the price, and both supply and demand are strong. However, today's market was affected by news, and attention should be paid to the authenticity of the news [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to increase production, the demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the US sanctions on Russian oil companies may limit exports, the overall supply is still in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. Considering the impact of crude oil price fluctuations, it is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [15]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at a low level. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the demand is less than expected. PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but less than expected. The cost is affected by crude oil, and plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **PVC**: The supply and downstream operating rates have increased. Exports are expected to weaken, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is still adjusting, and PVC is expected to fluctuate [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. Although the downstream demand has decreased, the winter - storage demand will be released, and coking coal remains strong [21][22]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The demand has improved slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the social inventory has slightly decreased, the maintenance of production enterprises such as Hangjin Technology is about to end, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The supply is relatively high, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, while the export outlook is also uncertain [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region has dropped by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26% and is at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has continued to rise but is still at a low level. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. The quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has been lowered by 30 - 40 dollars/ton in November. The anti - dumping duty on PVC imports from the Chinese mainland in India has been raised by about 50 dollars/ton, weakening the export expectation in the fourth quarter, but the export in September was still good [1]. - From January to September 2025, the real estate industry was still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has declined, remaining near the lowest level in recent years, and the real estate improvement still takes time [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. There are new production capacities coming on stream, such as Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into production in early September and approaching full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each running at a low load after trial production [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in a volatile manner with increased positions. The lowest price was 4,687 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,768 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,701 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.80%. The open interest increased by 52,808 lots to 1,214,725 lots [2]. - On October 31, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,660 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,701 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 41 yuan/ton, strengthening by 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking Supply - The production of devices such as Inner Mongolia Junzheng and Shandong Xinfa has increased, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. There are new production capacities coming on stream, including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua [4]. Demand - From January to September 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completion area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The overall real - estate improvement still takes time [5]. - As of the week of October 26, after the National Day, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.09% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. Inventory - As of the week of October 30, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% week - on - week to 1.03 million tons, 25.09% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still relatively high [6].

Core Viewpoint -航锦科技 reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025, indicating potential challenges in its financial performance [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.74% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.4647 million, representing a significant year-on-year decline of 81.14% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 3.287 billion, which is a slight year-on-year increase of 1.38% [1] - The net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 15.1891 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 62.72% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is mostly in the red, with the main contract opening at 2361.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 1.53% [1] - As of October 30, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises reached 442,600 tons, an increase of 6.84% month-on-month and 52.42% year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for caustic soda has slightly decreased due to recent maintenance and the restart of some previously halted production units [2] Group 2 - Newhu Futures indicates that the supply of caustic soda remains stable due to high operating rates and the pressure on downstream aluminum oxide profits, leading to limited room for further production increases [3] - Zhongyuan Futures notes that the short-term price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is expected to decline, as the current high operating rates at caustic soda plants are increasing supply while downstream demand is constrained [3] - Overall market expectations for caustic soda are weak, with the 2601 contract under pressure and attention on lower support levels [3]