作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.65% ，深证成指跌 1.76% ，创业板指跌 2.60% 。 沪深两市成交额超过 2.1 万亿，较昨日缩量逾 2000 亿。 日历效应正在演绎，临近节前，本周市场分歧加剧，成交量相对上周暗淡，但波动幅度却不断加大。 节假日海外市场走势、新关税、三季度末基金调仓等因素，为节后 A 股走势带来了不确定性。 这个时候，该避避风头了吗？ 科技股全线回调 01 金属铜概念股逆势走强，精艺股份三连板，江西铜业、铜陵有色跟涨。 消息面上，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼行业 "内卷式"竞争。同日全球第二大铜矿 - 印尼 格拉斯伯格矿区因泥石流事故宣布"不可抗力"而停产。作为全球第二大铜矿， Grasberg 矿山的突然停产立即引 发市场对供应中断的担忧。 风电股反复走强，吉鑫科技 2 连板，明阳智能、威力传动涨停，日月股份触及涨停。 | | | 风电概念股涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 √ | | 1 | 300 ...

沪深两市半日成交额为1.37万亿元，较上个交易日缩量1733亿元。个股涨跌互现，市场共2723只个股上 涨，53只个股涨停，2526只个股下跌。 从板块看，发电设备、石油化工、汽车、软饮料、化纤行业等板块领涨；此前涨幅较为显著的互联网、 制药、电脑硬件、电子元器件等板块出现回调，摩尔线程、服务器概念个股走弱。 港股方面，上午主要股指集体收跌。截至午间收盘，恒生指数跌0.65%，恒生科技指数跌1.04%。大型科 技股集体低迷，其中小米集团跌超5%，阿里巴巴、京东跌近2%。 有色金属板块延续活跃 今日上午，有色金属板块延续活跃，中钨高新（000657）、腾远钴业（301219）均涨超5%。 | 序号 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ 总市值 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 5.33% 428亿 106.43% | | വ 腾远钻业 | 70.37 | 5.33% 207亿 57.42% | | ന 兴业银锡 | 28.31 - - | 4.31% 503亿 155.49% | | 4 江西铜业 | 31.56 | 4.30% 1000亿 57.42% | | 5 | 3.91 ...

Group 1 - The copper sector has seen significant price increases, with the copper index rising by 5.13% to 3581.38 points on September 25, 2023, and individual stocks like Jingyi Co. and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting their daily limits [1][2] - Copper prices reached new highs, with LME copper touching $10,485 per ton on September 25, 2023, and Shanghai copper reaching 82,980 yuan per ton, marking the highest levels since July 2024 [1][3] - The suspension of mining operations at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine due to a landslide has raised concerns about copper supply, with expectations that production levels may not return to pre-accident levels until 2027 [3][4] Group 2 - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased from 73,490 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 82,540 yuan per ton by September 25, 2023, reflecting a 12.31% increase [2] - Major copper companies in the A-share market have also seen stock price increases, with companies like Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum experiencing over 100% gains year-to-date [2] - The Grasberg mine accounts for approximately 3% of global copper supply, and its production loss is expected to impact global supply significantly, supporting higher copper prices [3][4] Group 3 - The Grasberg mine's production halt is not an isolated incident, as other copper mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in Africa, have also faced operational disruptions earlier this year [5][6] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum are planning to expand their copper production capabilities, aiming for a target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [7] - Zijin Mining has gained control over the Giant Dragon Copper Mine, which is expected to significantly increase its production capacity by 2025 [8] Group 4 - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to experience high volatility, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the market [4][9] - The rising copper prices are expected to impact downstream industries, particularly in the renewable energy sector, where copper demand is significantly higher compared to traditional energy sources [8]

申万宏源指出，短期关税暂停、供给扰动、降息预期强化下铜价偏强，长期看家电补贴持续、电网投资 增长等，叠加铜供给相对刚性，价格中枢有望抬升。 今日（9月26日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）逆市活跃，场内价格盘中涨超2%， 现涨0.88%，冲击日线3连阳。拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨57.80%， 大幅跑赢沪指（24.44%）、沪深300（27.97%）等主要宽基指数。 成份股方面，腾远钴业涨超6%，西部超导涨逾5%，江西铜业、贵州铂业、兴业银锡等个股跟涨。 数据来源：中证指数公司、沪深交易所等，统计区间： 2025.4.8-2025.9.25 。注：中证有色金属指数近 5 个完整年度的涨跌幅为： 2020 年， 35.84% ； 2021 年， 35.89% ； 2022 年， -19.22% ； 2023 年， -10.43% ； 2024 年， 2.96% 。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表 现。 消息面上，重点关注铜和锂方向： 1、铜方面，全球第二大铜矿Grasberg发生泥石流事故，已暂停生产。Freeport ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations as the holiday approached, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing initial gains before narrowing. The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw significant inflows, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) initially rose over 2%, with net subscriptions reaching 15 million units, translating to over 20 million yuan in net inflows by 10:15 AM [1]. - The index components of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF showed mixed performance, with the copper sector leading gains, particularly Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 4% [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) covers a broad range of metals, with copper accounting for 30% of its composition, making it a leading index in terms of copper and gold content [4]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is addressing the "involution" competition in copper smelting, proposing measures to control capacity expansion [7]. - Global refined copper consumption is projected at 28.65 million tons in 2024, with China alone consuming 17 million tons, highlighting the country's dominant position in the market [8]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts expected to strengthen copper prices [10]. - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, which is anticipated to support gold prices in the long term [11]. - The current environment presents significant investment opportunities in non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-side policies, demand recovery, and global economic trends [11].

Group 1 - Copper concept stocks continue to strengthen, with notable increases in Baiyin Nonferrous and Jiangxi Copper, both rising over 5%, and other companies like Xingye Silver and Huayou Cobalt also showing gains [1] - The color metal ETF (512400) has risen by 0.73%, marking its third consecutive day of gains, with a year-to-date increase of 60% [1] Group 2 - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has declared "force majeure" due to a landslide, leading to a projected 35% decrease in copper and gold production by 2026 [2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's copper division opposes "involution" competition within the copper smelting industry [2] - Citigroup forecasts copper prices to rise to $12,000 per ton in the next 6 to 12 months [2] - Morgan Stanley projects gold prices to reach between $4,050 and $4,150 per ounce by mid-2026, anticipating continued highs in gold prices [2] - The cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo will transition to an export quota starting October 16 [2] - The color metal ETF (512400) is the only ETF tracking the CSI Shunwei Nonferrous Metals Index, covering key sectors such as copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and gold, with a latest scale of 12.582 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices have been rising since September, driven by consumer sentiment and the popularity of collaborations between two-dimensional IPs and gold jewelry among young consumers, leading to significant price premiums and supply shortages [1] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 91.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, which is a key factor pushing gold prices higher, with expectations that prices may stabilize after reflecting these rate cut anticipations [1] - The gold stock ETF fund has seen a 60.31% increase in net value over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since its inception, indicating strong performance compared to benchmarks [4] Group 2 - As of September 25, 2025, the gold stock ETF fund has a year-to-date return of 5.73%, with a trading volume of 2,374.21 million yuan on average over the past month [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index account for 66.52% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5] - The gold stock ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, closely tracking the performance of the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term market fluctuations do not alter the long-term slow bull trend of the stock market, with dividend and technology assets expected to yield excess returns in the long run [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The market is experiencing short-term volatility, but the long-term outlook remains positive, particularly for dividend and technology assets [1] - A barbell strategy is gaining attention, with a focus on increasing equity market allocation among residents [1] Group 2: Index Performance - As of September 26, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index (000010) decreased by 0.18%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top-performing stocks included Seris (601127) with a 10.00% increase, while the worst performers were Hengrui Medicine (600276) down 3.75% and WuXi AppTec (603259) down 3.34% [1] Group 3: ETF Tracking - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund closely tracks the Shanghai 180 Index, which selects 180 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from the Shanghai stock market [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index accounted for 26.25% of the index, with Kweichow Moutai (600519) being the largest at 4.92% [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong performance, driven by supply disruptions and regulatory changes in the copper industry, leading to increased copper prices and improved profitability expectations for domestic copper companies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, companies like Jingyi Co. and Lida New Materials have seen their stock prices hit the daily limit up for three consecutive days, while Hunan Silver and Jiangxi Copper have also shown significant gains of over 8% and nearly 7%, respectively [1]. - The copper market is expected to strengthen due to ongoing supply concerns, particularly from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which remains shut down following an accident [2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association highlighted the detrimental effects of "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, urging companies to oppose such practices to align with high-quality development goals [1]. - Regulatory measures are being developed to standardize copper smelting capacity management, indicating a shift towards more structured industry practices [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite a recent decline in the operating rate for electrical wire and cable production, the operating rate for refined copper rods has increased by approximately 3 percentage points, suggesting stable demand [2]. - The anticipated copper price is projected to reach $10,500 per ton in the third to fourth quarter of 2025, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions [2]. - The valuation of domestic copper companies is expected to rise to 15-20 times earnings, reflecting a growing recognition of supply shortages and demand growth [2].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares rose over 4%, reaching a new high of 28.18 HKD, driven by industry developments and company fundamentals [1] Industry Summary - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Copper Branch held its fifth meeting on September 24, emphasizing the negative impact of "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, which harms national and industry interests [1] - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg in Indonesia, announced a force majeure and halted production due to a landslide [1] Company Summary - Jiangxi Copper possesses abundant copper resources and clear cost advantages, with stable annual production of copper and by-product gold, providing a solid profit foundation [1] - Future overseas resource expansion may yield potential growth, with the company's stake in the First Quantum Panama copper mine expected to resume production, and the Afghan Aynak copper mine development anticipated to progress [1] - The company's stake in the Kazakhstan Bakuta tungsten mine is steadily increasing production, with these potential projects expected to contribute significantly to performance growth [1]