全球储能需求持续释放，国内市场化需求驱动储能订单呈现爆发式增长； 美国数据中心等负荷引起的电力供应短缺推动美国大储装机需求提升； 欧洲电网不稳定情况和现货峰谷价差拉大均带动推动储能需求；新兴市 场各国政府扶持政策频出，储能装机需求有望大幅度提升。我们预计 2026 年全球储能装机需求达到 404GWh，同比增长+38%，建议关注【宁 德时代】、【亿纬锂能】、【阳光电源】、【德业股份】、【禾望电气】、 【盛弘股份】。 锂电产业链价格下行趋势有望反转，固态电池产业化提速。锂电产业链经历 几年下行期后，2026 年多数产品价格、盈利有望显著回暖。新技术方面，钢 壳电池、硅负极、储能大电芯均有望在 2026 年实现批量供应；固态电池技 术产业化处于加速阶段，有望在 2026 年实现产线规模扩大以及装车测试增 加，为 2027-2030 年的批量化应用奠定基础。建议关注【宁德时代】、【亿 纬锂能】、【中创新航】、【珠海冠宇】、【天赐材料】、【恩捷股份】、 【当升科技】、【厦钨新能】。 风电主机厂盈利能力修复，出口贡献业绩增长。2026 年国内风电新增装机有 望保持 10%-20%增长，订单饱和价格具有良好支撑。主机盈利 ...

交银国际研究 行业剖析 行业评级 领先 2025 年 12 月 5 日 新能源与公用事业行业 2026 年展望：行业"反内卷"之下多晶硅初见曙光，大储需求超预期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 12/24 4/25 8/25 12/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 行业表现 恒生指数 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1810 文昊, CPA bob.wen@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3667 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | ...

Key Takeaways from the Expert Call on Overseas ESS Market Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the overseas Energy Storage System (ESS) market, particularly insights from Mr. Echo Che of Envision AESC, an unlisted company [1] Demand Outlook - Global ESS installation is projected to reach approximately **360 GWh** in 2026, representing a **35% year-over-year increase** from **125 GWh** in 2025 [2] - Key growth drivers include the **United States**, **Australia**, and the **Middle East**, while **Europe** is expected to grow at a slower rate of less than **10%** due to supply chain challenges [2] - In the **Middle East**, countries like the **UAE** and **Egypt** are planning significant deployments, with expected installations of **35-45 GWh** by 2026 [2] - The **U.S.** is anticipated to contribute **60-80 GWh**, with **AIDC** (Artificial Intelligence Data Centers) accounting for **15-20 GWh** [2] - Drivers for AIDC-related storage include: - Need for grid access due to high peak loads - Backup power requirements increasing from **4 hours** to **6-8 hours** - Policy incentives [2] Competitive Landscape - **Tesla** leads the U.S. market with a **40% market share**, attributed to strong technical capabilities and localized production, though it faces challenges due to higher pricing [3] - **Sungrow** follows but faces risks from policy and localization requirements [3] - **Fluence** ranks among the top three, leveraging its U.S. manufacturing base but struggles with cost control [3] - In battery cell production, **CATL** dominates with a **40% market share** in North America, driven by LFP technology and production scale, but faces growth challenges due to non-China supply chain requirements [3] - Korean companies like **LGES** are expected to gain market share due to local manufacturing and ITC credits, despite currently lagging in safety performance compared to Chinese firms [3] Price Outlook - Prices for ESS are expected to trend downward, with system integration expansion achievable in **2-3 months** [4] - In the U.S. and EU markets, ESS system prices could be **30-50% higher** for non-China producers compared to Chinese ones, particularly in AIDC applications where price sensitivity is lower [4] - The Middle East market is competitive, with pricing approaching that of China due to cost sensitivity and large project sizes [4] - By 2026, pricing pressure in the Middle East is anticipated as tier 2 Chinese battery makers enter the market, intensifying competition [4] Company Valuations and Risks - **Contemporary Amperex Technology-A (CATL)**: Price target based on **2026E EPS of RMB 20.0** with a PEG of **1.0x**; risks include weaker EV sales and battery installation, higher production costs, and market share loss [6] - **Fluence Energy Inc**: Valuation based on free cash flow, earnings, and discounted cash flows; risks include product quality, tariffs, and industry concentration [7] - **Sungrow Power Supply Co Ltd**: Price target of **RMB 233.96** based on a **25x FY26E P/E**; risks include lower-than-expected solar installations and energy storage growth [8] - **Tesla, Inc.**: Price target based on DCF, with risks including production delays and investment in autonomous driving [9] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the competitive dynamics and pricing pressures in the ESS market, particularly as new entrants emerge and existing players adapt to changing market conditions [4][3]

Summary of U.S. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) - **Forecast**: U.S. BESS deployments expected to grow from 54 GWh in 2025 to 88 GWh in 2030, representing a 10% CAGR [1][9][14] Key Insights Growth Drivers - **Utility-Scale Visibility**: Strong project pipeline with 19 GW of planned inventory for 2025 and 32 GW through Q3 2027, with over 80% of next four quarters' additions already under construction [1][14][20] - **Interconnection Queue**: 356 GW of BESS interconnection requests expected to support growth from 2028 to 2030, even after applying a 70-80% reduction for historical operational rates [1][35] Data Center Demand - **Emerging Demand**: Data centers are increasingly integrating BESS for load flexibility and diesel replacement, with Wood Mackenzie tracking 34 GW across 12 U.S. sites, representing a potential one-third of the utility-scale forecast for 2026-30 [2][10][46][49] Supply Chain Dynamics - **Bifurcation Risks**: FEOC restrictions starting in 2026 complicate supply chains linked to China, with Korean suppliers emerging as credible alternatives. LG Energy Solution (LGES) is scaling up ESS capacity significantly [3][62][76] - **Tariff Impacts**: Tariffs on Chinese cells have fluctuated, impacting project economics, but the threat of re-escalation remains a concern [62][63] Economic Competitiveness - **Cost Analysis**: Utility-scale solar LCOE averages $50/MWh, and adding 4-hour storage raises it to ~$101/MWh, competitive with gas turbine costs [4][62] - **Domestic Content Incentives**: The 45X manufacturing tax credit and domestic content requirements are critical for maintaining project economics, with increasing thresholds from 2026 onward [79][81] Alternative Chemistries - **Emerging Technologies**: While LFP remains dominant, alternative chemistries like zinc-hybrid and sodium-ion are gaining traction for specific applications, particularly where duration and compliance with FEOC rules are critical [5][87][88] Additional Considerations - **Residential Market**: A forecasted decline in residential storage in 2026 due to the phaseout of the 25D residential solar tax credit, followed by a recovery driven by higher attachment rates [55][56] - **C&I Market**: The commercial and industrial (C&I) storage market is expected to grow at a 17% CAGR, albeit from a small base, with California being the primary market [61] Conclusion The U.S. BESS market is poised for significant growth driven by utility-scale projects, data center demand, and evolving supply chains. However, challenges such as regulatory changes, tariff impacts, and competition from alternative technologies will shape the landscape moving forward.

需求：全球装机持续增长，中国装机高位回落。2025年国内受136号文影响1-10月装机252.87GW，同比+39%，整体装机处于高位，预计全年装机 290GW，26年装机215GW，同降26%。海外市场，预计25年美国/欧洲新增装机50/70GW，同比持平，后续保持15-21%稳定增长态势。新兴市场贡献较多 增量，尤其是中东及印度国家项目规划推动，装机增速或超预期，预计25年分别达28/31GW，同增87%/29%。我们预计2025年全球新增光伏装机 599GW，同增11%，预计2026年全球新增光伏装机588GW，同减2%，受国内装机有所回落所致。 供给：反内卷陆续起效，价格逐步回升 1）各环节产能扩张停止，过剩情况有望缓解：随着行业反内卷的推进，我们预计26年起硅片、组件等环节产能扩 张将停止，甚至将出现减产，供需过剩有望改善。2）企业盈利承压，看好开工率温和回升：组件、电池、硅片环节普遍亏损，行业仍处去库与资金紧平 衡阶段，现金流质量与负债结构成为比利润更关键的因素；开工率方面，当前排产仍处底部区间，但在硅料端产能出清、自律减产带动下，行业有望在淡 季过后迎来排产的温和回升。3）头部企业建立共同体，推 ...

*免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 国投证券表示，从成长逻辑来看，AI算力的指数级增长将带动数据中心电力配套设施的刚性需求，而 高压化、高效化是核心技术发展趋势，800Vdc供电方案有望成为新一代数据中心的标配。招商证券则 指出，800Vdc技术的落地将大幅提升单台设备的能源利用效率，相关核心元器件的用量将随方案普及 实现倍数级增长，市场空间将随AI数据中心的扩张同步扩容。从产业链上下游来看，上游的功率半导 体、高压连接器企业将与下游的电力设备整机厂商同步受益于技术迭代与订单放量，形成从核心部件到 系统方案的全链条机遇。 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 阳光电源：公司是国内新能源电力设备龙头，已布局800Vdc高压供电相关技术，其数据中心高效供电 系统已通过北美部分客户的前期认证，近期正推进产能扩产以匹配潜在订单需求，在高压电力转换领域 的技术储备与客户资源处于行业领先地位。 科威尔：公司为小市值电力电子测试与电源设备企业，其高压电源产品可适配800Vdc供电方案的测试 与配套需求，目前已与多家国内算力设备厂商达成合作，且正在推进北美市场的产品认证工作。 据市场消息，英伟达将在加州圣克拉拉总部举 ...

下周在西安，又是一年一度的中国光伏行业年会。光伏，已经苦了三年，回望来时路，内心有些五味杂 陈。忽然想起三年前那个刚刚入行、无知且无畏的自己，在2022年滁州中国光伏行业年会前曾大声疾 呼，《行业即将迎来全面产能过剩》。 每一个人都在以自己的方式为这个行业尽一分力，虽然结果各不相同。人情事故，逢场作戏，不是不 懂，但千人之诺诺，总不如一士之谔谔。这毕竟才是媒体的意义所在，哪怕会得罪人。况且，处江湖之 远的文科生不懂庙堂之高，有时难免情绪上头，难免言辞偏激，在此要承蒙所有读者对于赶碳号的理解 和包容。 之所以啰嗦这么一大堆，都是为了小心翼翼地表达一些关于多晶硅收储的个人看法。 12月12日，中国光伏行业协会（下称"光伏协会"）官微文章表示：近日，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公 司（下称"光和谦成"）完成注册，标志着光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地。 赶碳号如果没有记错的话，这是光伏协会第一次官方正式承认了多晶硅产能收储这件事，也是第一次官 宣了光和谦成这家公司的目的和作用。 硅料是源头，行业破卷，产能出清，多晶硅产能整合殊为必要。但光伏行业协会亲自下场参股收储平 台，多少还是超出了很多人的预期。 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Views - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the application of green electricity and promotes the development of hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and energy storage, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in green energy sectors in 2026 [3]. - Domestic energy storage saw significant growth in November, with newly installed capacity reaching 4.51GW/13.03GWh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 57.14% in power and 74.66% in capacity [3][7]. - The report highlights the importance of hydrogen and green fuels as new growth points, with expectations for increased investment in these areas due to supportive policies and market conditions [4]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage is experiencing a boom, with November's new installations showing a 45.95% year-on-year increase in power and a 49.6% increase in capacity [3][7]. - The report anticipates that independent energy storage tenders will maintain a good level in 2026, supported by a complete revenue model through energy markets and auxiliary services [3]. Hydrogen and Green Fuels - The report suggests that hydrogen and methanol will play a crucial role in the non-electric applications of green electricity, with significant investment expected in these areas [4]. - The development of zero-carbon parks and factories is also highlighted as a key initiative for 2026 [3]. Wind Power - The report notes that in 2024, onshore wind power installations are expected to reach 75.8GW, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%, while offshore wind installations are projected to be 4.0GW, a decrease of 40.85% [8]. - The bidding capacity for wind power equipment in 2024 is expected to be 164.1GW, a 90% increase year-on-year [13]. Lithium Battery - The report indicates that the demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with December's retail sales of new energy vehicles expected to show a bright performance despite a year-on-year decline of 17% [19]. - The supply chain for lithium batteries is expected to stabilize, with ongoing negotiations for long-term contracts and price adjustments [22][23].

Demand - Global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity continues to grow, while China's installation is expected to decline from a high level. In 2025, China's installed capacity is projected to be 290GW, a 5% increase from 2024, but a decrease to 215GW in 2026, reflecting a 26% drop [4][11] - The global PV installed capacity is expected to reach 599GW in 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year, and 588GW in 2026, a 2% decrease due to the decline in domestic installations [4][11] Supply - The industry is experiencing a turning point with supply gradually recovering. Capacity expansion in various segments is expected to stop, and even production cuts may occur, alleviating the oversupply situation [4] - The profitability of companies is under pressure, but a moderate recovery in operating rates is anticipated as the industry moves out of a low production phase [4] - Major companies are forming alliances to address the oversupply and price inversion issues, exemplified by the establishment of a storage platform by leading silicon material companies [4] Industry Chain - The acceleration of capacity clearance is expected to restore price margins. The silicon material industry is projected to have a total capacity of approximately 3 million tons by the end of 2025, with current operating rates at 37% [4] - The price of silicon materials has rebounded to around 50 RMB, and profitability is expected to improve in 2026 as the market clears [4] - The inverter segment is experiencing significant growth, with global demand for large-scale storage and commercial storage increasing [4] Investment Recommendations - High-growth areas include inverters and brackets, with recommended companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, Huaneng Renewables, and others [4] - Leading silicon material companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and cost advantages include Tongwei Co., Ltd. and others [4] - New technology leaders in the industry include companies focusing on new materials and perovskite technology [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities in the U.S. power supply, particularly in the context of AI and energy demands, highlighting the "impossible triangle" of energy policy, economic growth, and AI needs [5][6]. Group 1: Energy Supply Challenges - The U.S. power grid is aging, with an average establishment time of over 40 years, leading to structural issues and a mismatch between supply and demand [5]. - The Biden administration's goal to eliminate 100GW of fossil fuel power generation by 2030 is threatened by the sudden surge in AI energy demands, creating a dilemma for energy policy [5]. - The U.S. power system lacks the capability for large-scale inter-regional energy distribution, unlike China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" [5]. Group 2: AI Power Export Opportunities - The article outlines three main directions for AI power export to North America by 2026: power sources (gas turbines, SOFC), power grid equipment (transformers, large-scale storage), and energy-saving technologies for data centers (SST) [6][19]. - The demand for gas turbines is expected to grow significantly, with an average annual demand of 80-110GW projected from 2026 to 2030, driven by the need for stable and green energy sources [8][9]. Group 3: Gas Turbine Market Dynamics - The supply side of the gas turbine market faces challenges due to complex production processes and a shortage of skilled labor, with an average training period of 1-2 years for workers [8]. - Major gas turbine manufacturers like Siemens Energy, GE, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries dominate the market, leading to a tight supply situation with orders extending to 2028-2029 [9][10]. Group 4: SOFC and Energy Storage - The demand for SOFC is expected to reach 1.5-2GW by 2026, with a growth rate of over 30-50% annually, driven by major tech companies' procurement needs [14]. - The large-scale storage market in North America is projected to see demand exceed 70-80GWh by 2026, supported by favorable economic returns and declining system costs [17]. Group 5: Data Center Energy Efficiency - SST technology is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption and space requirements for data centers, with a projected market space of $25-35 billion by 2027 [19]. - The SST market is expected to see a penetration rate of 15-20% by 2027, with major players including Eaton and emerging domestic manufacturers [19][20].