智通财经5月8日电，摩根大通将ARM目标价从175美元下调至150美元。 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3831.63 | ↑0.61 | | 2860.1 | | | | | | IF2505 | 3817.2 | ↑0.55 | -14.43 | 328.6 | 28654 | ↑45 | 45962 | ↓707 | | IF2506 | 3785 | ↑0.51 | -46.63 | 638.2 | 56105 | ↑8274 | 141994 | ↑3041 | | IF2509 | 3725.8 | ↑0.47 | -105.83 | 136.8 | 12210 | ↑2796 | 58236 | ↑1900 | ...

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic commodity futures night session generally closed down, with most energy and chemical products, black series, and agricultural products falling, and most basic metals also declining [2][47]. - The international precious metal futures generally closed down, and international oil prices weakened, with concerns about oversupply dominating the oil price trend [2][47][49]. - A - share market is expected to continue the stabilization trend since early April, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the medium - term market [27]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures night session: Energy and chemical products mostly fell (e.g., glass down 2.96%, soda ash down 2.7%), black series all declined (e.g., coking coal down 2.57%), agricultural products mostly dropped (e.g., soybeans down 1.58%), and basic metals all fell (except for a 0.07% rise in Shanghai gold) [2][47]. - International precious metal futures: COMEX gold futures down 1.47% to $3372.60 per ounce, COMEX silver futures down 2.31% to $32.61 per ounce [2][47]. - International oil prices: U.S. oil main contract down 1.93% to $57.95 per barrel, Brent crude main contract down 1.91% to $60.96 per barrel [2][49]. - London basic metals: Most declined, except LME lead up 2.16% [3][49]. - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural products: All futures main contracts fell [3][49]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The central bank cut the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, provided about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity, and made multiple interest - rate cuts [6]. - Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the U.S. side [7]. - The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April were 1.14 million, a 42% year - on - year increase [7][35]. - China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of April were $32816.62 billion, a $409.97 billion month - on - month increase [9]. - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and traders still expected three interest rate cuts this year [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory rose 0.1% week - on - week, while middle distillates inventory dropped 20% [11]. - China's methanol port inventory increased slightly, with de - stocking in East China and inventory accumulation in South China [11]. - Some quotes of photovoltaic glass in the South China market were lowered, and the market may see a general decline [11]. - U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased by 2032000 barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 580000 barrels [13][50]. - The national main port's imported coniferous log inventory slightly decreased [13]. Metal Futures - Alphamin Resources lowered its tin mine production guidance from 20000 tons to 17500 tons [15]. Black - Series Futures - The impact of production - restriction news on the Northeast region is limited [17]. - China's gold reserves increased by 70000 ounces at the end of April, the sixth consecutive month of increase [19][50]. - Guinea's government started the process to revoke EGA's mining license [19]. - The coal price at the Bohai Rim ports has dropped by 111 yuan/ton, and experts predict it may fall to 600 yuan/ton [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Analysts predict the U.S. 2025/2026 soybean yield to be 4.338 billion bushels [22]. - China's oil - mill soybean - crushing volume is expected to rise, and domestic soybean meal and soybean oil inventories will gradually increase [22]. - India's sugar production decreased by 1.833 million tons in the 2024/2025 season as of April 30 [22]. - The predicted trading price of Malaysian palm oil futures from June to November is 3500 ringgit per ton [23]. - Brazil's May soybean export is expected to be 12.6 million tons [24]. Financial Markets Finance - A - shares opened higher but then fell back, with a turnover of 1.5 trillion yuan, and the military industry was strong [27]. - Hong Kong stocks opened high and closed low, with net southbound capital outflows [27]. - The current foreign - held A - share market value is about 3 trillion yuan, and the CSRC will support M&A [27]. - A - share new - account openings in April decreased but remained stable [28]. - CITIC Securities may prepare for the return of Chinese concept stocks [28]. - Shanghai Auntie's dark - market price rose over 62% [28]. - Pop Mart's director sold all shares, cashing out HK$2.267 billion [30]. - Geely will privatize ZEEKR [30]. - BeiGene's Q1 revenue increased by 50.2% [30]. - CATL's potential Hong Kong IPO price may be less than 10% lower than A - shares [30]. - Changan Automobile refuted the merger rumor [31]. Industry - Real - estate loans increased in Q1, and many places implemented the central bank's mortgage - interest - rate cut [32][33]. - Zhuhai introduced new real - estate policies [35]. - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held in Beijing [35]. - Goldman Sachs predicts the growth of the Chinese Robotaxi market [35]. - Tesla China's April wholesale sales decreased by 6% year - on - year [35]. - The CBRC approved the establishment of Xingyin Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. [36]. Overseas - The U.S. and the EU are negotiating, and the EU may take counter - measures [37]. - U.S. drug imports increased by $20 billion in March [37]. - The Bank of Korea may cut interest rates in May [39]. - U.S. electronic product prices may rise due to tariffs [40]. - Brazil's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points [41]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose, with Disney and NVIDIA leading the gains, while Chinese concept stocks generally fell [42]. - European stocks fell [43]. - Asia - Pacific stocks showed mixed performance [43]. - Disney's Q2 revenue increased by 7%, and it raised its annual profit forecast [43]. - Novo Nordisk's Q1 revenue and profit increased, but it lowered its annual profit - growth forecast [45]. - BMW's Q1 sales were lower than expected, and it warned of U.S. tariff impacts [45]. - Uber's Q1 revenue increased by 14% but was lower than expected, while EPS exceeded expectations [45]. - ARM's Q4 adjusted EPS, revenue, and operating profit all exceeded expectations [46]. Commodities - Similar to the overnight market trends, domestic and international commodity futures generally showed a downward trend, with some exceptions in gold and lead [47][49]. - China's gold reserves increased, and U.S. crude - oil - related data changed [50]. - The price of Japanese rice continued to rise [50]. Bonds - The "technology board" of the bond market was launched, with nearly 100 institutions planning to issue over 300 billion yuan of innovation - related bonds [51]. - Domestic bond futures fell, and bond - yield trends were divided [53]. - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations and adjusted the interest rate [53]. - There may be a $2 - trillion demand for U.S. Treasuries from digital assets [53]. - Japanese and U.S. and European bond yields showed different trends [54]. Foreign Exchange - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 1.27% month - on - month in April [56]. - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar declined, and the dollar index rose [57]. - Indonesia's central bank will maintain its presence in the foreign - exchange market [57].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Stock Market - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting with no change in rates [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets saw a significant rally, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.7%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.27% [1] - Notable stock movements included a drop of over 7% for Google, a decline of more than 1% for Apple, while Nvidia rose over 3% and Amazon increased by 2% [1] Group 2: Baidu's Animal Language Conversion Patent - Baidu has officially published a patent for an "Animal Language Conversion Method, Device, Electronic Equipment, and Storage Medium," which aims to facilitate deep communication between humans and animals [2][3] - The patent utilizes artificial intelligence technologies, including machine learning and natural language processing, to accurately identify animal emotional states and translate them into human-understandable language [2][3] - This innovation is expected to enhance emotional communication and understanding between species, improving cross-species communication accuracy and efficiency [3] Group 3: Industry Developments - Tencent announced an upgrade to its text-to-image generation capabilities, integrating the latest models into its platform [15] - Lenovo introduced a groundbreaking "super intelligent agent" technology at its innovation conference, marking a significant evolution in AI capabilities [16] - Apple is considering a major overhaul of its Safari browser to focus on AI-driven search engines, potentially ending its long-standing partnership with Google [16][17] - Arm reported record quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion but provided disappointing guidance, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [18][19] - Baidu and Alibaba Cloud launched the first vertical MCP service in the finance and tax sector, aiming to transition businesses from experience-driven to data-driven operations [19][20] - Geely proposed to privatize Zeekr at a price of $2.57 per share, representing a premium over recent trading prices [23]

| | | STREET THE FEAT | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 41113.97 | 284.97 | 0.70% | | | 纳斯达克 | 17738.16 | 48.50 | 0.27% | | | 标普500 | 5631.28 | 24.37 | 0.43% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5230.19 | -33.19 | -0.63% | | | 英国皇版100 | 8559.33 | -38.09 | -0.44% | | | 法国CAC40 | 7626.84 | -70.08 | -0.91% | | | 德国DAX30 | 23115.96 | -133.69 | -0.58% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1103.72 | 6.47 | 0.59% | | | 上证指数 | 3342.67 | 26.56 | | | | 深证成指 2 | 10104.13 - | 21.79 | 0.80% 0.22% | | | 创业板指 gelongh ...

智通财经APP获悉，Arm Holdings(ARM.US)公布了令人失望的第一财季销售预期，这引发了人们对关 税推动的芯片行业放缓的担忧。Arm在一份声明中表示，第一财季的营收预计将达到10亿至11亿美元， 分析师预期位于该区间的最高端。扣除某些项目后，每股利润将为30至38美分，也低于分析师预期的42 美分。财报公布后，截至发稿，Arm股价在盘后交易中下跌逾11%。截至周三收盘，该股今年以来的涨 幅不到1%。 Arm以授权费和技术版税的形式获得报酬，这些技术控制着芯片和软件的通信方式。第四财季授权收入 为6.34亿美元，版税收入为6.07亿美元。 Haas在接受采访时说："我们一直很保守，以确保我们不会过度扩张。企业的健康状况令人难以置信地 强劲。我们的数据中心业务发展势头强劲。" 该公司将保守的预测归咎于与客户达成新协议的时机。Arm首席执行官Rene Haas表示，该公司正在完 成授权协议，并希望确保这些协议签署后才能增加营收。他说，客户继续加大对芯片的投资，尤其是对 人工智能计算的投资，这对Arm有利。 Arm首席财务官Jason Child表示，缺乏客户对2025年的预测，意味着Arm自己做出预测 ...

美国总统特朗普再次失望。 尽管他一再喊话呼吁降息，美联储还是选择观望，并未降息，还暗示特朗普的政策有引发滞胀的风险。 美联储主席鲍威尔会后也再次重申， 美联储不急于行动，不认为应该先发制人降息应对关税冲击，又一次打脸特朗普。 鲍威尔还表示， 特朗普对降息的呼声"根本不会影响我们的工作"，从未主动要求与任何总统会面，并且将来也不会。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos评论称，美联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。 虽然美联储继续按兵不动，但特朗普"出招"了 ，计划撤销拜登政府的AI芯片出口限制新规，助推美股大盘收涨，告别两连跌，美元指数加速反弹，黄金进一步 回落。 打脸特朗普， 美联储 再次暂停降息 美东时间5月7日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间保持4.25%至4.5%不变。 这是美联储连续第三次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。美联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，自今年1月特朗普上任以来，美联储一直暂 停行动。 本次决议得到全体FOMC票委支持，未像上次有一人反对。美联储声明称， 经济前景不确定性"进一步"增加，新增语句"失业率上 ...

Group 1 - OpenAI plans to significantly reduce its revenue sharing with Microsoft from 20% to below 10% by 2030, indicating a desire for greater independence and profitability [2] - Apple is actively working on enhancing its Safari browser to transition to an AI-driven search engine, which may end its long-standing partnership with Google, causing a significant drop in Google's stock price [3] - Amazon announced an investment of over $4 billion to establish an AWS infrastructure region in Chile by the end of 2026, demonstrating its commitment to expanding in the global cloud computing market, particularly in South America [4][5] Group 2 - OpenAI launched a new global AI development initiative called "OpenAI for Countries," aiming to collaborate with nations to develop AI infrastructure and provide customized ChatGPT solutions for various sectors [6] - Arm Holdings reported better-than-expected earnings for Q4 2024 but issued disappointing guidance for Q1 2025, projecting revenue between $1 billion and $1.1 billion, which is below analyst expectations, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [7]

Market Overview - Major US stock indices closed higher, ending a two-day decline, with the S&P 500 up 24.37 points (0.43%) to 5631.28 points, the Dow Jones up 284.97 points (0.70%) to 41113.97 points, and the Nasdaq up 48.50 points (0.27%) to 17738.16 points [4][3] - The semiconductor sector ETF rose by 2.05%, while the technology sector ETF increased by 1% [4] Company Performance - Nvidia shares rose by 3.1%, while Apple fell by 1.14% and Google dropped by 7.26% [8] - Disney's stock surged nearly 11% following a strong earnings report, and AppLovin saw a post-market increase of over 10% [3][14] - Arm's stock fell over 10% in after-hours trading due to disappointing guidance [3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with a statement indicating increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [3] - The dollar index accelerated its rebound, nearing 100, while gold prices fell significantly [3] Sector Analysis - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.74% to 4386.36 points, with AMD up 1.76% and TSMC ADR up 1.31% [9] - The healthcare sector ETF fell over 1.5% in after-hours trading [4] International Market Impact - Chinese concept stocks saw a decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.34% [10] - European stock indices generally closed lower, with Germany's DAX down approximately 0.6% and France's CAC down over 0.9% [14]

美股反弹，英伟达低位拉升近5%，谷歌一度跌超9%，Arm盘后跌超11%；黄金一度跌超2%。 美联储再次暂停降息，示警滞胀风险，重申"不确定性"增加。鲍威尔无视特朗普，重申不急降 息，称经济仍好、不确定性极高，拒绝因关税抢先行动。 芯片股拉升，媒体称特朗普拟废除拜登任内AI芯片限制。 中国外交部回应中美经贸高层会谈：这次会谈是应美方请求举行的。 10+8+3！中国金融部门出台一揽子政策稳市场稳预期。 公募业重大改革方案落地，绑定投资者利益，基金经理薪酬与收益挂钩、费率调降。 中国4月外汇储备规模环比上升1.27%，央行连续六个月增持黄金。 若对美谈判失败，欧盟准备反制，将对波音飞机征收关税。 苹果酝酿Safari大改版，瞄准AI搜索，谷歌一度跌超9%、地位面临严峻挑战。 诺和诺德Q1销售额同比增长19%不及预期，下调全年销售指引。 提醒：英国央行周四将公布利率决议，预期降息25个基点。 ...