最终，平台通过延长促销周期和吸引流量实现表面狂欢，跨境卖家却在亏损中挣扎。亚马逊作为平台 方，虽然通过黑五活动提升了整体GMV，而实际上，卖家的参与度和满意度大幅下降。这种短期利益 与长期生态健康的矛盾，凸显了电商行业的结构性问题。 在黑五期间，亚马逊卖家本应迎来订单高峰，但现实却截然相反。许多卖家反映，订单量甚至不及平日 水平，而头部品牌的激进降价策略进一步压缩了中小卖家的利润空间。头部品牌打价格战，迫使其他卖 家跟随降价，否则无法吸引流量。更糟糕的是，亚马逊的Prime专享折扣系统多次出现报错，导致卖家 无法正常参与促销活动，错失销售机会。 不仅如此，今年黑五的另一个显著变化是平台竞争的加剧。黑五战场不再是亚马逊的"独角戏"， Temu、SHEIN、TikTokShop等新兴平台凭借极致低价和流量优势，分流了大量消费者。Temu以"低价至 上"的策略吸引了价格敏感型用户；SHEIN通过快时尚模式占据市场份额；TikTokShop则依托短视频内 容推出了超长促销活动，在美国市场实现爆发式增长。此外，沃尔玛、速卖通等传统平台也延长了黑五 促销周期，进一步瓜分市场份额。除了平台竞争，消费者行为的转变也是黑五困境 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：船务资讯） 一年一度的黑五已经接近尾声，但无数亚马逊卖家却在这场被平台冠以"史上最长黑五"的狂欢中，陷入了一场无声的崩溃。 从11月20日到12月2日，整整12天的促销周期，没有带来预期中的订单爆单，反而演变成一场集体亏损的劫难：订单不及平日、头部品牌疯狂降价、Prime 专享折扣频繁报错逼降……种种乱象之下，不少卖家直言："这不是大促，是慈善。" 黑五订单大跳水 今年的黑五，成为无数亚马逊卖家心中最离谱的一届。 "以为黑五是冲刺，结果是陪跑，还倒贴钱。" "黑五首日开局遇冷，流量平平，以为会有所改善没想到这种惨淡状况在整个12天的大促周期中愈演愈烈"。 据众卖家反馈，第一天的订单才是最好的。参加过三四次黑五的卖家李平之感叹："往年黑五至少能维持3-5天的高单量，今年第一天勉强比平日多一点， 第二天就开始断崖式下跌，今天直接只剩平时的三分之一。" 与平台宣传的销售额创新高相悖，多数中小卖家的订单量不仅没涨，反而出现大幅下滑，部分类目销量不及平日促销水平。 今年这场"黑五滑铁卢"席卷全球站点： 某亚马逊卖家投入1000多美金报名Prime专享折扣，结果大促启动后平台突然报错，要求所有产品 ...

Core Insights - The performance of the Black Friday sales event has shown signs of fatigue, with merchants experiencing growth but not meeting expectations due to various industry challenges [1][4] - Consumer shopping enthusiasm remains high, with approximately 186.9 million people participating in shopping events, but price sensitivity has increased significantly [2][4] - The promotional landscape has shifted, with longer sales periods and a more fragmented approach to marketing and sales channels [8][9] Group 1: Market Trends - The Black Friday shopping period has extended significantly, with Amazon's event lasting 12 days and Temu offering a 51-day promotion [9][10] - Consumers are increasingly viewing promotional events as opportunities for comparison shopping rather than immediate purchasing, leading to a more prolonged engagement with sales [11][20] - The competition among platforms has intensified, with Temu and TikTok Shop emerging as significant challengers to Amazon, capturing market share through aggressive pricing and marketing strategies [12][14] Group 2: Merchant Challenges - Merchants are facing rising operational costs, including a 30% increase in advertising costs, which is not translating into proportional sales conversions [4][5] - There is a notable divide between large and small sellers, with larger sellers benefiting from better resources and marketing capabilities, while smaller sellers struggle to maintain profitability [5][7] - The industry is experiencing a "stronger get stronger" dynamic, where top sellers receive more platform support and visibility, exacerbating the challenges for smaller players [7][21] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly seeking value and are more cautious about spending, with 70% actively looking for ways to save money [2][4] - The trend of consumers checking price histories to ensure they receive genuine discounts reflects a shift towards more informed purchasing decisions [4][20] - The younger demographic in emerging markets, such as Mexico, is driving significant sales growth during promotional events, contrasting with the more saturated U.S. market [15][16] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Merchants are diversifying their sales channels, moving away from reliance on a single platform to leverage multiple marketplaces for better reach and sales [12][15] - The focus is shifting from price competition to value creation, with brands emphasizing quality, customer experience, and long-term relationships over short-term sales spikes [20][22] - The overall trend indicates a move towards a more sustainable business model, where healthy profit margins and brand equity are prioritized over sheer sales volume [21][22]

Core Insights - The e-commerce industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from the previous era of rapid growth to a more challenging environment where growth rates have drastically slowed down [1][3][24] Industry Overview - The growth rate of online retail sales in China for the first three quarters of 2025 is only 0.89%, marking the second consecutive year of single-digit growth [3][7] - The proportion of online retail in total social consumer goods retail has stagnated between 24% and 27% for several years, indicating a lack of momentum in the sector [3][7] Comparison with Offline Retail - Offline retail has shown a recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 4.59% in the first three quarters of the year, suggesting consumers are becoming more rational and experience-oriented in their purchasing behavior [5][7] Financial Performance of Major Players - Alibaba's latest quarterly revenue increased by 5%, but its net profit plummeted by 72% to 10.3 billion [7] - JD.com reported nearly a 15% revenue increase, yet its profit shrank by over 50% [7] - Pinduoduo's revenue growth has also slowed to single digits for two consecutive quarters, highlighting a common trend of "increased revenue but decreased profit" across the industry [7][9] Competitive Landscape - The entry of new competitors such as Douyin, Xiaohongshu, Bilibili, and video platforms has intensified competition, leading to a price war and increased marketing expenditures [9][11] - Traditional e-commerce platforms are struggling to adapt to the "watch and buy" model popularized by content platforms, which has shifted consumer behavior [9][11] Strategies for Adaptation - Companies are exploring new avenues such as "instant retail" and leveraging AI technology to enhance efficiency and customer targeting [13][15] - 78% of live-streaming e-commerce companies are utilizing AI to improve efficiency, with some reporting a 40% increase in conversion rates [15] Innovative Approaches - SHEIN exemplifies a successful model by employing a digital flexible supply chain and small-batch production, allowing for rapid market response and reduced inventory [17][20] - Other companies are also exploring personalized customization and transparent supply chains to enhance efficiency and customer satisfaction [20][22] Future Outlook - The current industry shake-up is seen as a positive development, pushing the sector towards more sustainable practices and a focus on efficiency rather than mere growth [24][25] - The essence of e-commerce remains unchanged: effectively connecting supply and demand while minimizing transaction costs [22][24]

Core Insights - The 2025 Black Friday in Europe and the US has transformed into a long promotional period akin to China's Double Eleven, driven by the strong entry of domestic cross-border e-commerce platforms [1][4] - Overseas warehouses have become a core competitive advantage for cross-border sellers, essential for supporting the extended promotional periods and managing logistics efficiently [1][3][4] Promotional Strategies - Temu's Black Friday promotion in the US runs from October 9 to November 29, while TikTok's activities span from late October to early December, with platforms like AliExpress and Amazon extending their promotional periods to over 50 days [1] - The intense competition has led platforms like Temu and SHEIN to significantly increase advertising spending, raising marketing costs and forcing sellers to offer lower discounts and flash sales [3] Logistics and Supply Chain - The peak daily order volume for a specific overseas warehouse during Black Friday 2025 increased threefold year-on-year, with certain product categories like 3D printers and robotic vacuums seeing over 200% surge in outbound volume [3] - Efficient overseas warehouse systems, such as 易仓WMS, enhance processing efficiency by 40% and are crucial for managing high-frequency replenishment needs during long promotional periods [3][4] Regulatory Impact - Changes in tariff policies, such as the termination of the $800 tax exemption for small packages in the US, have prompted many sellers to shift from direct shipping to overseas warehouse fulfillment, which helps mitigate tariff risks and reduce delivery times [3][4] Future Outlook - The competition during Black Friday is fundamentally a supply chain battle, with overseas warehouses transitioning from optional to essential for cross-border sellers [4] - The depth of overseas warehouse deployment and the level of intelligence in warehouse systems will be critical for sellers to navigate the increasingly competitive landscape [4]

Core Viewpoint - SHEIN has initiated a donation of 5 million Hong Kong dollars for emergency relief, transitional housing, and post-disaster community recovery for residents affected in Tai Po, Hong Kong [1] Group 1 - The donation aims to support urgent relief efforts and help affected residents return to normal life [1] - SHEIN will continue to monitor the progress of the disaster relief efforts and collaborate with various parties [1]

以下文章来源于长江商学院 ，作者CKGSB 长江商学院 . 长江商学院以"为中国和世界培养一批具有全球视野、全球资源整合能力、全球价值对接能力及全球担 当，具备人文关怀和创新精神的世界级商业领袖"为己任，培养重视社会创新的经济上新生代迭代的力 量，为全球重大问题的解决贡献中国智慧和中国方案。 来源丨长江商学院 （ID： ckgsb ） 作者丨 滕斌圣、曹欣蓓 图源丨Midjourney 全球资本市场正经历结构性调整，宽松货币时代积累的估值泡沫加速出清，投资者对盈利模式和长期 价值的审视日益严格，"降价融资"成为常态，市场从狂热转向理性冷思考。 这一趋势深刻重塑独角兽企业生态：昔日依赖资本驱动的"ZIRPicorns" （零利率时代独角兽） 面临 资金链压力，"Papercorns" （纸面独角兽） 的估值缺乏流动性支撑，部分企业甚至陷入"僵尸化"困 境。 当估值泡沫破裂，独角兽企业靠什么活下去？中美独角兽在创新路径上有哪些显著差异？差异背后的 原因是什么？AI下半场，中国的独特优势又有哪些？ 今天和你分享长江商学院滕斌圣教授与曹欣蓓研究员在最新发表于《经济观察报》的署名文章，希望 对你有所启发。 滕 斌 圣 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese enterprises are leveraging the opportunities presented by RCEP through model innovation, supply chain optimization, and deep localization strategies to expand into the Japanese market, while facing challenges such as Japan's new consumption tax policy, trade protectionism, and logistics bottlenecks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment Analysis - The China-Japan cross-border e-commerce market presents a strategic opportunity characterized by mutual dependence and complementarity [1][2]. - Japan's e-commerce market is expected to reach $191.9 billion by 2024, driven by a unique demographic structure that includes a significant elderly population with strong purchasing power [3][34]. - The Chinese e-commerce market, driven by digital technology, emphasizes efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and social interaction, creating a foundation for complementary cooperation with Japan [8][34]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Company Analysis - Chinese cross-border e-commerce companies are shifting from a "stocking" model to a brand-focused approach, emphasizing quality and service to meet Japanese consumer expectations [10][12]. - Major platforms in Japan include Rakuten, Yahoo! Shopping, and Amazon Japan, which are crucial for new entrants to reach consumers [10][12]. - Companies like Anker and Shokz have successfully penetrated the Japanese market through localized operations and brand building [10][28]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Logistics Optimization - Supply chain innovation and logistics optimization are critical for success in the Japanese market, with strategies including overseas direct mail and bonded inventory [11][30]. - The integration of digital technologies such as blockchain and IoT is enhancing supply chain transparency and efficiency [31][38]. - Companies are adapting to Japanese consumers' high expectations for delivery speed and service quality, with some offering same-day or next-day delivery [31][30]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Compliance - The regulatory landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with Japan's new consumption tax policy and stringent product quality standards posing challenges for Chinese companies [21][22]. - Compliance with Japan's Personal Information Protection Law and other regulations is essential for long-term success in the market [22][23]. - Companies must establish robust compliance frameworks to navigate the evolving regulatory environment and mitigate risks [23][15]. Group 5: Future Trends and Opportunities - The aging population and the Z-generation in Japan are expected to drive market growth, with a focus on health, wellness, and personalized products [34][46]. - The rise of live and social e-commerce presents significant growth potential in Japan, as consumer acceptance of online shopping continues to increase [37][46]. - The RCEP agreement is anticipated to create a more favorable trading environment, with expectations of zero tariffs on over 90% of goods by 2026 [45][49].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is implementing a tax obligation for e-commerce platforms with annual sales exceeding 5 billion yen, targeting platforms like Temu, SHEIN, and Qoo10, which will affect the pricing of imported goods [2][4]. Group 1: Tax Regulation Changes - The Japanese government proposed a tax reform that requires e-commerce platforms with annual sales over 5 billion yen to fulfill tax obligations [4]. - Previously exempt small cross-border transactions under 10,000 yen (approximately 454 RMB) will now be subject to consumption tax, leading to an estimated price increase of around 10% for consumers [4][5]. - This change aims to address the influx of low-priced goods through Chinese-backed e-commerce platforms, which have been able to sell products at lower prices due to tax exemptions [2][5]. Group 2: Impact on Local Retailers - Local Japanese retailers, who are required to pay various taxes, are facing competitive disadvantages against these cross-border e-commerce platforms that have been evading tax obligations [5]. - The current policy mandates that imported goods priced over 10,000 yen must have consumption tax collected and remitted by the merchants on the platforms, but there have been reports of tax evasion among these merchants [5].

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee has demonstrated a remarkable turnaround, with its store count reaching 2,921, six times the number at the time of its delisting in 2020, and achieving a stable profit of 1.2 yuan per cup, contrasting with a loss of 5.6 yuan per cup five years ago [5][6]. Group 1: Company Recovery and Market Dynamics - The case of Luckin Coffee represents one of the most significant "turnaround" stories in Chinese business history, challenging the notion that delisting equates to failure and showcasing the resilience of the Chinese consumer market [8][9]. - Institutional investors, such as Snow Lake Capital and IDG Capital, have played a crucial role in supporting Luckin Coffee post-delisting, with significant investments and strategic changes that revitalized the brand [9][11]. - The market's response to Luckin's delisting was calm, indicating a strong underlying demand for its products, which remained unaffected by the delisting crisis [13][19]. Group 2: Shift in Consumer Investment Paradigms - The narrative surrounding Luckin Coffee reflects a broader shift in the Chinese consumer landscape, moving away from a model focused on aggressive spending and rapid growth towards one emphasizing product quality and sustainable profitability [16][19]. - The success of Luckin Coffee and other brands illustrates the emergence of a new generation of consumer entrepreneurs who prioritize product excellence and consumer insights over mere market share [25][26]. - The investment landscape is evolving, with a focus on long-term value creation and the importance of identifying companies with strong product capabilities and brand strength [30][31]. Group 3: Market Potential and Global Influence - China's consumer market is increasingly recognized as a significant source of global innovation, with a vast population allowing for extensive validation and iteration of niche products [34][44]. - The competitive environment in China is characterized by both high risks and high rewards, necessitating that local companies and their investors adapt to rapidly changing market conditions [35][39]. - Investment institutions are now more involved in the global expansion of Chinese brands, reflecting a shift from merely bringing foreign brands to China to actively participating in the global market [41][43].