2025 年 12 月 10 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 国泰海通晨报 [Table_Summary] 1、【非银行金融研究】投资银行业与经纪业：2025 年 11 月存量基金净流入。个人投资者风险偏 好略有好转，机构资金持续寻求收益增厚。绩效考核新规下发，行业更重投资者体验。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 刘欣琦(分析师) 021-38676647 liuxinqi@gtht.com S0880515050001 王思玥(分析师) 021-38031024 wangsiyue@gtht.com S0880525070022 推荐机构服务能力与投顾业务能力更强的券商，个股推荐中信证券、广发证券、华泰证券。 风险提示：权益市场大幅波动。 请务必阅读文章最后一页相关法律声明 1 of 11 行业跟踪报告：投资银行业与经纪业《绩效考核迎新规，行业 更重投资者体验》2025-12-09 2025 年 11 月 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its last interest rate decision of the year, with a consensus leaning towards a rate cut, as the next chair candidate signals a dovish stance and predicts a 25 basis point cut in December [1] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) has seen significant inflows, totaling 2.478 billion yuan over the past month, with its latest scale reaching 42.862 billion yuan and shares increasing by 25.5 billion this year, making it a key tool for investors in the Hong Kong tech sector [1] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index is 23.29 times, which is more attractive compared to the Nasdaq's 42.21 times and the STAR Market's 152.29 times, indicating potential value for investors [1] Group 2 - The external environment for the Hong Kong tech sector suggests that continued monetary easing is likely, with a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could alleviate global liquidity pressures and benefit interest-sensitive tech assets [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes 30 strong R&D companies across various sectors, indicating its comprehensive and representative nature in the tech market [2] - The management of the Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PB Fund, has extensive experience in ETF management, having created several leading ETFs in the market, which enhances the credibility and attractiveness of the fund [3]

Core Insights - The financial sector is increasingly integrating with the HarmonyOS ecosystem, driven by the need for digitalization and security in financial services [1][2][6] - As of now, over 1,000 financial applications have been launched on Huawei's app market, indicating significant adoption of HarmonyOS in the financial industry [1][2] - The collaboration between HarmonyOS and financial institutions has evolved from mobile application adaptation to multi-device collaboration and AI integration [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The financial industry's dual demand for digitalization and self-controllability is influenced by the high frequency of mobile financial services and the need for enhanced user experience [2][6] - Regulatory requirements for data and terminal security have made financial institutions more cautious in their technology choices [2][6] - HarmonyOS is seen as a new opportunity for innovation and development in the financial sector through partnerships with various financial applications [2][5] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Financial institutions are leveraging HarmonyOS capabilities to reconstruct user experiences and service processes, such as integrating voice commands for transactions [3][4] - Security features like digital shields and AI fraud prevention have been integrated into HarmonyOS to enhance the safety of financial services [3][5] - The multi-device and AI capabilities of HarmonyOS are enabling financial institutions to create differentiated user experiences across various devices [3][5] Group 3: Institutional Adoption - Major banks, such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have fully adapted HarmonyOS for their internal systems, indicating its maturity for enterprise-level applications [4][6] - The transition of B-end office systems to HarmonyOS is seen as a critical test of the operating system's robustness and compliance with high security and stability standards [4][6] - The financial sector's complex service chain necessitates a higher level of system stability and risk control compared to other industries [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - HarmonyOS is expected to continue focusing on "full scene" and "intelligence" innovations in the financial sector [5][6] - The shift from terminal competition to ecosystem competition is anticipated, with HarmonyOS's "one development, multi-terminal deployment" advantage being a key factor [6] - As more institutions and developers join the ecosystem, HarmonyOS is poised to become a vital part of the next-generation digital infrastructure in the financial industry [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the brokerage sector continues to hold investment value amid a slow bull market, with a focus on leading brokerages for investment opportunities [1] - Following the "Nine Policies," the governance structure of China's capital market has significantly improved, leading to enhanced market profitability and trading activity, benefiting brokerages as service providers [1] - The recent central financial meeting has defined the future development pattern of the industry, with an increase in merger and acquisition activities driving supply-side reforms [1] - Year-to-date, brokerages have underperformed despite high activity levels, with the brokerage index rising only 2.44% compared to the 16.51% increase in the CSI 300 index, indicating potential for a rebound [1] - The brokerage sector is one of the few industries with strong fundamentals but weak stock performance this year, suggesting improved value for traditional brokerages in the context of financial IT valuation recovery [1] Group 2 - The Securities ETF Leader closely tracks the National Securities Leader Index to reflect the market performance of quality listed companies in the securities theme [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Leader Index account for 79.05% of the index, including companies like Dongfang Caifu and CITIC Securities [2]

华泰证券研报表示，随着近期美联储降息预期的下修基本到位，中国表观经济数据短期走弱的迷雾逐渐 消散，出口增长保持强劲，春节前结汇高峰来临，人民币升值有望渐入佳境。维持2026年底美元兑人民 币汇率6.82的预测。虽然短期走势仍有不确定性，但这一预测隐含的路径假设是人民币临近"破7"。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉）12月10日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨，报 7.0643，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.0693。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.06354。 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.0753，较前一日上调20个基点。 与此同时，美元指数在99关口上方震荡，截至9时30分，报99.2401。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Huatai Securities is experiencing a decline in financing activities while maintaining a relatively high level of short selling, indicating potential market concerns or investor sentiment shifts [1][2]. Group 2 - On December 9, Huatai Securities' stock price fell by 1.19%, with a trading volume of 1.714 billion yuan. The financing buy-in amount was 205 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 250 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 45.18 million yuan [1]. - As of December 9, the total balance of margin trading for Huatai Securities was 6.291 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 6.280 billion yuan, accounting for 3.84% of the circulating market value, which is below the 10th percentile level over the past year [1]. - In terms of short selling, on December 9, Huatai Securities had a short repayment of 196,300 shares and a short sale of 101,100 shares, amounting to 2.2636 million yuan at the closing price. The remaining short selling volume was 511,800 shares, with a short balance of 11.4592 million yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile level over the past year [1]. Group 3 - As of September 30, Huatai Securities had 195,500 shareholders, a decrease of 6.96% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 7.62% to 38,566 shares [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Huatai Securities reported operating revenue of 27.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.69% to 12.733 billion yuan [2]. Group 4 - Huatai Securities has cumulatively distributed dividends of 42.893 billion yuan since its A-share listing, with 13.994 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders of Huatai Securities, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 442 million shares, a decrease of 108 million shares from the previous period. China Securities Finance Corporation remained unchanged with 153 million shares, while Guotai CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF became a new shareholder with 131 million shares [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Defense is significantly stockpiling critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements, which are essential for energy transition [1] - Vulcan Energy has secured nearly $2.5 billion in financing for the construction of Europe's largest lithium production project, with an annual production capacity of 24,000 tons of lithium, sufficient to meet the demand for approximately 500,000 electric vehicles per year [1] - CITIC Securities forecasts that the total demand for lithium batteries is expected to exceed 2,700 GWh next year, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 30%, and energy storage battery demand surpassing 900 GWh, indicating potential shortages in various segments of lithium [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities predicts that the global lithium resource supply increment by 2026 will mainly come from new domestic salt lake projects, increased output from African and Australian mines, and gradual production ramp-up from South American salt lakes [2] - Under neutral expectations, global lithium resource supply is projected to be 1.634 million tons, 2.162 million tons, and 2.532 million tons of LCE for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.3%, 32.3%, and 17.1% [2] - CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of resource self-sufficiency and low-cost quality resources, suggesting that companies with high self-sufficiency can maintain stable raw material supply and high margins, mitigating risks associated with low-margin processing in the future [2] Group 3 - Related companies in the lithium mining sector listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange include Tianqi Lithium (09696), Ganfeng Lithium (01772), and Longpan Technology (02465) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a strong cultural soft power and fulfilling responsibilities in the financial sector, as outlined in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which sets the direction for the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1: Corporate Governance and Culture - The company views party discipline and integrity as essential for high-quality development, integrating these principles into its governance framework to ensure long-term stability and health in the industry [2][8] - The company has established a "clean governance risk management system" that identifies over 1,200 internal control key points across its business chain, focusing on risk prevention and real-time alerts for potential issues [6][9] Group 2: Employee Engagement and Training - The company has created a "Clean Practice Handbook" to clarify regulations and has developed engaging materials, such as comics, to educate younger employees about compliance and integrity [3][5] - Regular training sessions and a structured learning mechanism are in place to enhance employees' understanding of party discipline and compliance requirements [2][8] Group 3: Digital Transformation and Risk Management - The company has invested in technology to enhance governance capabilities, including a system for monitoring employee investment behaviors to prevent misconduct [6][7] - A financial cloud system has been established to support remote financial data management and integrate risk data from overseas subsidiaries into a centralized risk database [7] Group 4: Long-term Commitment to Integrity - The company is committed to embedding integrity into its corporate culture and governance structure, viewing it as a cornerstone for building core competitiveness [8][9] - The company aims to create a robust ecosystem that discourages corruption and promotes compliance, aligning with the strategic goals set forth in the 14th Five-Year Plan [9]

总的来看，近两年来，期货行业正经历着核心高管层面的密集"换血"，这一变动也预示着行业在战略调 整、治理结构优化等方面或将迎来深刻变革。 格林大华期货首席专家王骏在接受记者采访时表示，从近两年期货公司高管变动呈现的特点看，一是变 动时间集中，2025年调整较为集中，或印证行业转型进入关键节点的特征；二是高管背景结构多元化， 股东背景多来自券商、集团体系内部，同时也有内部晋升与外部引进人才，平衡了企业稳定发展与创新 需求；三是覆盖范围广，既包含头部期货公司，也涉及中小期货公司，外资期货公司（摩根士丹利期 货）也参与其中，体现了全行业性调整态势，而非局部个别现象。 "从行业高管变动的情形看，首先是到龄退休与正常交接；其次是股东方战略调整，新高管多来自券商 或控股股东体系内部，体现券商系期货公司加强管控、证期一体统一战略的意图；最后是监管合规与专 业化要求提升，中期协推行的高管专业能力测试成为任职'硬门槛'，推动公司在选人、用人时更注重专 业资质，促进行业管理人才升级。"西安交通大学客座教授景川告诉记者。 12月2日，中国期货业协会（以下简称"中期协"）公布最新一期期货公司高管人员专业能力水平评价测 试合格人员名单， ...

2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。图是高科技企业云集的深圳湾。 新华社发 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议总结分析今年经济工作，对明年 经济工作作出一系列重要部署。 围绕做好明年经济工作，会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，并提出做好明年经济工作的"八个 坚持"，将"坚持内需主导"置于首位。 2026年，中国经济如何前行?哪些重点领域值得关注? 八家券商先后发表观点对此作出深入解读。 政策基调 "要坚持稳中求进、提质增效" 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。"十五五"规划建议指出，"'十五五'时期我国 发展环境面临深刻复杂变化"，"我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时 期"。围绕做好明年经济工作，会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"。 华泰证券认为，从"以进促稳"到"提质增效"，经济政策基调从"进"和"立"到重"质"和"效"。从政策基调 的措辞看，今年政治局会议要求"稳中求进、提质增效"，而2024年12月政治局会议则强调"坚持稳中求 进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集成、协同配合"，主因去 ...