Group 1 - The stock price of China National Trade (600007) has shown volatility, closing at 20.56 yuan on February 13, 2026, down 1.44% with a trading volume of 32.34 million yuan [1] - Over the past five trading days, the stock has experienced a decline of 1.06% with a price range fluctuation of 2.02%, reaching a high of 20.95 yuan and a low of 20.53 yuan [1] - Technical indicators suggest the stock price is between the 20-day Bollinger Bands resistance level of 21.14 yuan and the support level of 19.53 yuan, with a weak MACD indicator and a neutral KDJ indicator [1] Group 2 - Institutional views on China National Trade are generally neutral, with a composite target price of 25.78 yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 29.48% from the latest price [2] - Profit forecasts from 13 institutions predict a 2.01% year-on-year increase in net profit and a 1.20% increase in operating revenue for 2026 [2] - In the past 90 days, two institutions have issued "buy" or "hold" ratings, but overall market sentiment remains subdued, with a low fund holding ratio of 0.02% [2] Group 3 - The real estate industry is undergoing structural adjustments among leading companies, which may indirectly impact the commercial real estate sector [3] - Major real estate firms like Poly and China Resources are pushing for regional mergers and streamlined management to cope with declining sales, with a reported 18.9% year-on-year drop in sales for the top 100 firms in January 2026 [3] - Despite China National Trade's focus on investment property leasing and non-residential development, the overall pressure on the industry could affect demand and valuations in the commercial real estate market [3]

你有没有想过，你三年前存进银行的那笔钱，可能正在悄悄改变楼市的命运？ 这不是危言耸听。 综合多家券商测算，2026年，全国将有超过50万亿的定期存款集中到期。 其中，光是居民手里的中长期存款，规模就高达37.9万亿到67万亿。 这笔钱，相当于2025年全国商品房销售总额的6到8倍。 当这笔巨款在2026年，尤其是第一季度，从银行的保险柜里涌出时，它会流向哪里？ 楼市，这个沉 寂了五年的市场，会不会成为它的下一个目的地？ 这背后是一个简单的算术题。 2020到2023年，很多人出于对未来不确定性的担忧，把钱锁进了三年期、利率超过3%的定期存款里。 如今，这些存款陆续到期，但银行能给的续存利率，已经跌到了1.3?.8%。 一边是曾经的高息诱惑，一边是当下的微薄收益，巨大的利差会让储户们坐立不 安。 他们中的大多数，是有房或有能力购房的中高收入群体。 这笔钱的再配置，就像一颗投入湖面的巨石，涟漪注定会波及房地产。 就在2026年1月，国家统计局发布了最新的房价数据。 乍一看，形势依然严峻：70个大中城市的新房价格同比还在下降，一线城市二手房价格同比跌了 7.6%。 但如果你仔细看环比数据，会发现一些微妙的变化。 市 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.72% to 26,567.12 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.90% to 5,360.42 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 1.55% to 9,032.71 points [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened lower at 26,640.16 points, dropped by 392.38 points, and ultimately closed down by 465.42 points, with a total trading volume exceeding 257.5 billion HKD [1] - The southbound trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect) saw a net inflow of over 20.2 billion HKD [1] Sector Performance - Overall, sectors such as chips and department stores saw gains, while new consumption, new energy vehicles, and telecommunications had mixed results. Conversely, sectors like gold, non-ferrous metals, biomedicine, port transportation, technology, oil and gas, brokerage, and banking mostly experienced declines [1] Individual Stock Movements - Notable stock movements included Xiaomi Group increasing by 0.88%, AIA Group decreasing by 4.18%, Zijin Mining falling by 7.64%, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing down by 2.13%, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation rising by 0.79% [1] - Ctrip Group-S dropped by 2.10%, Pop Mart fell by 1.90%, while Tian Shu Zhi Xin surged by 14.59% and Zhi Pu increased by 20.65% [1] - China Construction Bank decreased by 1.49%, China Resources Land fell by 2.52%, and Lao Pu Gold dropped by 3.97%, while Guotai Junan International rose by 4.61% and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 4.33% [1] Top Traded Stocks - The top three traded stocks included Tencent Holdings, which fell by 0.65% with a trading volume exceeding 14.2 billion HKD; Alibaba, down by 2.02% with over 10.8 billion HKD in transactions; and Meituan, which decreased by 3.18% with a trading volume of over 8.1 billion HKD [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [24]. Core Insights - The pilot program in Shanghai for acquiring second-hand housing for rental housing is expected to have advantages compared to lower-tier cities and may serve as a guiding model for other key urban projects [2][4]. - If the implementation is orderly, it could positively impact market expectations and confidence [2]. - The acquisition of second-hand homes is part of a new model called "monetization of affordable housing construction," allowing for the conversion of physical affordable housing into monetary funds for purchasing suitable existing homes [1][4]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On February 2, 2026, the first batch of second-hand housing acquisitions for rental housing projects in Shanghai was officially signed, supported by China Construction Bank [1]. - The pilot will take place in the districts of Pudong, Xuhui, and Jing'an, focusing on acquiring 96 second-hand homes to be included in the affordable housing supply system [1]. Acquisition Mechanism - The acquisition will prioritize small-sized units built before 2000, with a total price not exceeding 4 million yuan, targeting properties with clear ownership and no disputes [4][5]. - The program aims to address the housing supply-demand imbalance in key areas with high rental demand [4][6]. Market Conditions - As of the end of 2025, there were approximately 4,825 second-hand homes in the three districts that met the acquisition criteria, with a total listing value of 14.2 billion yuan [4][11]. - The rental demand for one and two-bedroom units in these districts is notably high, with demand ratios reaching 85.4% in Xuhui, 80.2% in Pudong, and 78.2% in Jing'an [6][8]. Financial Support and Sustainability - The funding for the acquisitions will come from district-level financial resources, supplemented by bank loans, with rental income from the acquired properties expected to support ongoing operations [4][5]. - China Construction Bank is expected to provide financial support for the acquisition process, including customized financing solutions [4][5]. Comparative Analysis - The report compares Shanghai's approach to similar initiatives in Zhengzhou, noting that while Zhengzhou's program has not significantly boosted market demand, Shanghai's pilot is positioned to better meet existing rental needs [4][5]. - The price decline of second-hand homes in Shanghai has been significant, with prices in the three districts dropping by over 20% compared to their peak [4][15].

相比2024年的开出的7个购物中心、42.9万㎡体量，开业数量表现持续放缓，但新增供应体量回暖，佛山整体存量进一步承压前行。 即便如此，2025年佛山市场仍不乏有高关注度项目入市。 华润置地湾西首个重资产项目、华润万象生活进驻佛山首发项目顺德万象汇，携340余家品牌、超50%佛山或顺德首店亮相。项目商业建筑面积近13.8万 ㎡，是顺德最大商业综合体，也是华南体量最大万象汇。 万民金海城作为佛山新城最大商业综合体，商业体量达13.8万㎡，以95%新城首店、18米室内流水瀑布、假一罚十/不好吃包退、高达85项免费服务等内容 重构区域消费场景。 刚过去的2025年，据赢商大数据统计，佛山开出了6个购物中心，新增56.1万㎡商业体量。 | | 2025年佛山开业购物中心盘点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域 | 顾目 | 体量(万m2) | 开业时间 | | 南海区 | 佛山佰汇盈广场IN 100 | 7 | 2025年5月1日 | | | 悠趣JOYPARK街区 | 6 | 2025年9月 | | 禅城区 | 佛山王府井紫薇港二期紫薇星街 | 10 | 2025年10月 | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [24]. Core Insights - In January 2026, new home prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.5%. The decline in second-hand home prices has narrowed compared to December 2025 [3][10]. - The number of cities with declining new home prices increased to 62, with an average decline of 0.42%, which is a slight improvement from the previous month [3]. - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3% in new home prices, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.5%, with significant improvements noted in Beijing [3][11]. - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.3% in new home prices and 0.5% in second-hand home prices, with some cities showing price increases [3][11]. - Third-tier cities maintained a month-on-month decline of 0.4% in new home prices and a 0.6% decrease in second-hand home prices, with a few cities showing slight increases [3][11]. - The report suggests that while the narrowing of second-hand home price declines in January is a positive sign, ongoing observation of transaction volumes and prices is necessary, particularly for potential seasonal rebounds in the market [3][11]. - The report anticipates two key turning points in 2026: a "policy turning point" around the end of Q1 and a "fundamental turning point" around Q4, with investment opportunities expected to arise [3][11]. - Recommended investment focuses include companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [3][11]. Summary by Sections New Home Prices - In January 2026, new home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.4%, with 62 cities experiencing declines [3][10]. - First-tier cities saw a stable decline of 0.3%, while second-tier cities had a decline of 0.3% and third-tier cities maintained a decline of 0.4% [3][11]. Second-Hand Home Prices - Second-hand home prices decreased by 0.5% in January 2026, with 67 cities reporting declines [3][11]. - First-tier cities experienced a decline of 0.5%, second-tier cities saw a 0.5% decrease, and third-tier cities had a 0.6% decline [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong sales and land reserves in first and second-tier cities, smaller firms with notable sales and land acquisition breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies adapting to new consumption trends [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - New home sales in January showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales turned positive year-on-year [1][21] - The central bank has released favorable policies, including lowering the re-lending rate and reducing the down payment ratio for commercial properties [1][4] New Home Sales - In January, the new home sales area in 40 cities decreased by 42.3% month-on-month and by 22.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 10.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][14] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 14.0%, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.1% decline, and third and fourth-tier cities had a 41.1% decline [15][20] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home sales area in 18 cities decreased by 2.0% month-on-month but increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate improving by 41.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [21][25] - All city tiers showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand home sales, with first-tier cities growing by 15.0% year-on-year [21][30] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of January, the new home inventory area in 12 cities was 112.91 million square meters, down 0.4% month-on-month and down 6.3% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 18.1 months [28][29] - The absorption cycle for first-tier cities increased by 4.3 months year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decrease of 8.2 months [28] Land Market - The land market in January saw a transaction area decrease of 76.5% month-on-month and a 20.2% year-on-year decline, with an average land premium rate of 2.87% [1][12] - The average land price per square meter decreased by 36.8% month-on-month and by 20.9% year-on-year [13] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 49.5% year-on-year decline in land acquisition amounts, with a land acquisition intensity of 32% [1][12] - The financing scale for the real estate industry in January was 39.6 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year but up 7% month-on-month [1][14] Policy Developments - The central bank's policy changes include lowering the re-lending rate to 1.25% and reducing the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [1][4] - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has been submitted for approval, with a total expected fundraising of 31.47 billion yuan [1][4] Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in January, with an absolute return of 4.3% and a relative return of 2.7% [1][12] - The report anticipates two potential turning points in 2026: a policy turning point around the end of Q1 and a fundamental turning point around Q4 [1][12]

執 行 委 員 會 （根 據 董 事 會 於2017年4月18日 通 過 之 決 議 案 成 立） 之 華 潤 置 地 有 限 公 司 （「公 司」或「本 公 司」） 職 權 範 圍 書 （經 董 事 會 於2017年4月18日 採 納 並 於2026年2月13日 修 訂） 釋 義 成 立 成 員 秘 書 公 司 的 公 司 秘 書 應 擔 任 委 員 會 秘 書（「秘 書」）。董 事 會 可 不 時 委 任 任 何 其 他 具 備 適 當 資 格 及 經 驗 的 人 士 擔 任 秘 書。 – 1 – 「交 易」 指 具 有 上 市 規 則 賦 予 的 涵 義。 「附 屬 公 司」 指 具 有 上 市 規 則 賦 予 的 涵 義。 「上 市 規 則」 指 聯 交 所 證 券 上 市 規 則（經 不 時 修 訂）。 「聯 交 所」 指 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司。 會 議 次 數 委 員 會 每 年 至 少 召 開 一 次 會 議。 會 議 程 序 會 議 通 過 的 決 議 案 權 力 – 2 – 1. 為 有 效 及 時 管 理 公 司 的 日 常 運 作，公 司 董 事 會（「董 事 會」 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 2026 年 2 月 联络人 作者 企业评级部 蒋 螣 027-87339288 tjiang@ccxi.com.cn 刘旭冉 027-87339288 xrliu@ccxi.com.cn 黎小琳 027-87339288 xlli@ccxi.com.cn | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 样本企业表现 | 8 | | 结论 | 12 | | 附表 | 13 | 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 房地产行业 中国房地产行业展望，2026 年 2 月 2025 年房地产行业政策力度同比减弱，但全年销售规模降幅收窄， 去库存亦取得一定进展，在商品房销售额尚未完全企稳的背景下， 供求平衡的修复仍面临挑战；2026 年预计行业销售及投资下行压力 仍存但节奏放缓，政策端或将进入常态化实施阶段，待售面积有望 出现拐点性下降，为"十五五"房地产市场触底企稳打下基础，预 计未来短期内头部房企的市场地位稳固，但行业颈部及腰部企业的 排序或 ...

Group 1 - The report from Daiwa indicates that if the GDP target for 2026 is set at around 5% during the National People's Congress on March 5, it may suggest stronger economic stimulus measures are forthcoming [1] - The anticipated fiscal stimulus is expected to focus on fixed asset investment, consumption, and real estate [1] - Daiwa maintains an optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market in the first half of 2026, with the stimulus policy season likely extending until April [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of large-scale stimulus policies remains low, but the introduction of gradual stimulus measures along with strong policy assurances could boost investment sentiment in the short term [1] - Companies such as China Resources Land and Midea are expected to benefit from these developments as part of Daiwa's preferred stocks [1] - Due to strong downstream demand driving price increase expectations, companies like Laopu Gold and Kingsoft Cloud have been added to the preferred list [1]