Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to see a recovery in performance in Q4 2025, driven by rising coal prices and a favorable supply-demand balance, with potential for a spring rally in Q1 2026 [1][7]. Price Trends - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 672 CNY/ton in Q3 2025 to 765 CNY/ton in Q4 2025, marking a 13.8% increase [3]. - In Q4 2025, the price fluctuated significantly, peaking at 834 CNY/ton before dropping to a low of 670 CNY/ton, yet still achieving a notable average increase [2]. Profitability Outlook - The profitability of coal companies is expected to improve, with thermal coal prices rising and coking coal prices also showing significant increases, particularly in long-term contracts [4]. - The average price for coking coal at Jing Tang Port rose to 1726 CNY/ton in Q4 2025, a 10.5% increase from Q3 [4]. Production Dynamics - The "overproduction check" policy has led to a mixed production performance among listed coal companies, with some reporting declines while others saw increases in output [5]. - Major coal producers like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy reported production decreases of 5.0% and 2.1% respectively, while Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal Energy reported increases of 3.6% and 1.0% [5]. Cost Management - Cost control remains a priority for coal companies, with strategies shifting from volume-driven to cost-focused approaches due to previous low coal prices [6]. - Despite a slight increase in costs expected in Q4 due to rising coal prices and year-end expense settlements, companies have managed to maintain a focus on cost efficiency [6]. Future Supply and Demand - The exit of certain coal supply capacities is anticipated to significantly improve the coal supply-demand balance, with a potential reduction of around 100 million tons if implemented nationwide [8]. - This policy aligns with previous market predictions and is expected to lead to a notable reduction in coal inventories, enhancing price elasticity in 2026 [8]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include stable large-cap thermal coal firms such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, as well as high-elasticity coal firms like Yanzhou Coal Energy and Jin Coal Industry [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in fund holdings in the coal sector, with total market value rising to 6.874 billion yuan in Q4 2025, up 12.13% from Q3 2025, but still at a low level compared to historical data [9]. - The report notes that the coal sector's fund holding ratio is at its lowest in three years, suggesting low investment crowding in the sector [9]. - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy are favored by funds, with significant increases in holdings for Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coal International [9]. - Short-term supply tightening and ongoing replenishment demand are expected to stabilize and potentially rebound coal prices, projected to fluctuate between 750-1000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Jinko Coal Industry and Shanxi Coal International, as well as industry leaders like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry [9]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - Fund holdings in coal stocks increased to 6.874 billion yuan in Q4 2025, a 12.13% rise from Q3 2025, with a holding ratio of approximately 0.36% of total fund holdings [9]. - The report identifies the top five companies by fund holdings, including China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry, with notable increases in holdings for Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coal International [9]. Price Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices will stabilize and rebound due to supply constraints and replenishment needs, with a seasonal fluctuation expected between 750-1000 yuan per ton [9]. - The analysis indicates that the coal industry is likely to return to a state of basic supply-demand balance in 2023-2024, driven by production cuts and regulatory normalization [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The "overproduction check" effect continues to push up the coal price center, with demand fluctuations causing rapid price changes. From July to December 2025, domestic raw coal production fell for six consecutive months year-on-year, significantly improving the coal supply-demand balance. The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal rose from 621 RMB/ton on June 30, 2025, to 689 RMB/ton on January 20, 2026. In Q4 2025, despite significant monthly fluctuations in coal demand, the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 672 RMB/ton in Q3 to 765 RMB/ton in Q4, a rise of 13.8% [4][5] - The profitability of the sector is expected to rebound, with coking coal enterprises likely to see significant improvements. The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q4 2025 is reported at 765 RMB/ton, up 13.8% quarter-on-quarter. The long-term contract price for thermal coal also increased, with the average price for Q4 reported at 685 RMB/ton, up 2.3% [4][5] - Production levels are stable, with fluctuations among listed coal companies. The "overproduction check" policy strictly requires that annual production does not exceed announced capacity, impacting production levels in the second half of 2025. Major listed coal companies showed mixed production results in Q4, with China Shenhua and China Coal Energy reporting decreases of 5.0% and 2.1%, respectively, while Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal reported increases of 3.6% and 1.0% [4][5] - Cost control remains a key focus, although rising coal prices and year-end cost settlements may increase costs. In H1 2025, coal prices declined, prompting companies to shift from volume-based strategies to cost control. As coal prices rebound, costs are expected to rise slightly in Q4 compared to Q3 [4][5] - The sector's performance is expected to continue its positive trend into Q4 2025, with anticipated earnings growth. The coal price has shown a quarterly step-down trend, but Q4 2025 is expected to see a rebound in performance due to rising coal prices [4][5] Summary by Sections - **Performance of the Sector**: The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased significantly in Q4 2025, indicating a recovery in the sector's profitability [4][5] - **Production and Supply**: The "overproduction check" policy has led to a decrease in production, stabilizing the supply-demand balance [4][5] - **Cost Management**: Companies are focusing on cost control, with expectations of slight increases in costs due to rising coal prices [4][5] - **Future Outlook**: The coal sector is expected to see continued performance improvement into 2026, driven by supply-side policy changes and price rebounds [4][5]

文 | 张阳阳 上涨个股中，领涨股北方铜业涨幅为8.33%，蓝焰控股涨5.28%；晋控煤业、华阳股份、东杰智能涨逾 2%；潞安环能、仟源医药、大禹生物等10只个股涨超1%；山西焦化、亚宝药业、锦波生物等9只个股 涨幅均在1%以下。 下跌个股中，领跌股华翔股份跌幅为8.49%，科达自控跌3.15%；安泰集团、跨境通跌逾2%；狮头股 份、金利华电等4只个股跌超1%；同德化工、壶化股份、晋控电力等7只个股跌幅均在1%以下。 山西板块26日整体表现稳健，指数整体上涨0.40%，成交额为182.10亿元，大盘三大指数普跌情况下实 现逆势上涨。 涨跌情况方面，山西板块41只个股，有24只上涨，15只下跌，2只平盘。 1月26日，A股三大指数集体下跌，截至收盘，上证指数跌0.09%，深证成指跌0.85%，创业板指跌 0.91%；北证50跌1.45%。沪深两市成交额约32482.03亿元，较前一个交易日放量约1629.79亿元。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the coal industry, specifically discussing coal prices and production trends for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Coal Production Data - National raw coal production for 2025 is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2]. - December 2025's monthly raw coal production was 440 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.0% [2]. - Daily average production in December was 14.1 million tons, aligning with expectations [2]. - The production trend indicates a high supply in the first half of 2025, followed by a decrease in the latter half, leading to a constrained overall supply [3]. Predictions for 2026 - The coal production for 2026 is not expected to exceed that of 2025 due to two main factors: 1. Gradual exit of pre-synthetic capacity, particularly in major production areas like Shaanxi [4]. 2. Increased safety regulations starting February 1, 2026, which will raise costs for smaller mines, potentially leading to capacity exits [5][6]. - Estimated capacity exit due to safety regulations could be around 70-80 million tons over two years [5]. Import Coal Trends - December 2025 saw a record high of 58 million tons in coal imports, attributed to: 1. Significant price increases in October and November, prompting coastal power plants to increase imports [6][7]. 2. Year-end contracts leading to concentrated customs declarations [7]. - Uncertainties in Indonesia's export policies, including new tariffs and quotas, may reduce coal exports in 2026 compared to 2025 [8][10]. Price Trends - Current coal prices show a slight decline, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal priced at 685 RMB, down from 695 RMB [10]. - Inner Mongolia coal prices increased to 1800 RMB, up by 30 RMB from the previous week [10]. - The differentiation between thermal coal and coking coal prices continues, with coking coal showing stronger performance [10][12]. Inventory and Demand - National power plant inventories decreased by 2.7 percentage points week-on-week and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand [14]. - The available days of inventory are currently at 17.9 days, down 4.1 days from the previous year [14]. - A cold weather forecast could further tighten inventory levels and boost prices [14][11]. Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in prices over the next 1-2 weeks, influenced by weather conditions and inventory levels [11][12]. - Post-Spring Festival, the market may shift into a seasonal downturn for thermal coal while coking coal could enter a demand peak [24][25]. Additional Insights - The overall trend in global commodity prices, including oil and natural gas, shows a strong correlation with coal prices, indicating a robust demand environment [17][18]. - The shift towards clean energy sources continues to impact coal demand, with significant growth in renewable energy generation [19][20]. - The coal industry's performance in 2026 will heavily depend on electricity generation growth, which is projected to be around 3% [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The focus remains on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Huaihe Energy, which are expected to perform well in a stable market [27][28]. - Specific stocks like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted as key investment opportunities for 2026 due to their strong fundamentals and market positioning [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, among others [11][14]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain stable amidst high inventory levels and fluctuating demand [18][30]. - The report highlights the potential for "black swan" events, particularly from increased demand in the U.S. and reduced production/export from Indonesia, which could significantly impact coal prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with overseas operations, such as Qinfa and Yancoal Australia, as they may benefit from shifts in the global coal trade [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3743.77 points, up 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [77]. - The U.S. coal stock BTU reached a new high of $39.95 per share, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Indonesia is tightening coal supply by closing illegal mining operations, which could further influence global coal prices [2]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is rising, but high inventory levels are leading to a weak market sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate as the market approaches the Chinese New Year [18][30]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening. Focus is on pre-holiday stockpiling needs [37][51]. - **Coke**: Price increases have been delayed, and market sentiment is declining, with steel mills maintaining cautious purchasing strategies [51][75]. Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Qinfa, which are well-positioned to capitalize on market changes [14][12]. - Companies like Peabody (BTU) and Jin控煤业 are also highlighted for their potential growth opportunities [14][12].

| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： 地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有望修复 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 股 票 研 究 业 跟 煤炭《2025 年用电量超 10 万亿 kwh，需求开启 上行周期》2026.01.19 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260118》2026.01.18 煤炭《反内卷再起，需求端预计 26 年开启上行周 期》2026.01.11 煤炭《国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating for Pingmei Shenma Group [5][11]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to face a dual weakness in supply and demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [18][31]. - The report highlights the impact of AI on reshaping the U.S. coal market, indicating a rebound in demand that could influence global coal trade dynamics [2][3]. - Indonesia's government is tightening regulations on illegal mining, which may affect coal supply and prices globally [2][3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3743.77 points, an increase of 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [78]. - The report notes that U.S. coal consumption is experiencing explosive growth, while exports are expected to slow down, leading to a tighter global coal trade balance [3][35]. - As of January 23, 2026, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 691 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 13 RMB/ton [31][19]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The report indicates a rise in daily consumption and cost support, but high inventory levels may lead to price fluctuations [18][31]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening due to rising costs impacting profitability for coking enterprises [38][49]. - **Coke**: The market is experiencing a pause in price increases, with a shift in sentiment leading to increased selling pressure from intermediaries [52][76]. Focused Companies - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Shaanxi Coal and Energy, with a focus on those involved in smart mining and international coal markets [14][12]. - The report also highlights companies like Peabody (BTU) and China Qinfa, which are positioned to benefit from international market dynamics [14][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the coal industry, indicating an expected relative performance that exceeds the benchmark index by over 10% [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in daily coal consumption due to a cold wave, with a focus on pre-holiday inventory replenishment needs [1]. - It notes that while coal prices have seen a decline, they are expected to stabilize as demand is projected to rise, particularly leading up to the Spring Festival [9]. - The supply side remains constrained due to "anti-involution" policies and strict safety regulations, which are likely to limit production increases [9]. Summary by Sections Production and Demand - In December, national raw coal production was 437 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a slight month-on-month increase of 2.4%. The total annual production reached 4.832 billion tons, up 1.2% year-on-year [7]. - The report indicates that electricity generation, pig iron, and cement production saw year-on-year declines of 3.2%, 9.9%, and 6.6% respectively in December [7]. Price Trends - As of January 23, the Qinhuangdao coal price was 686 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 11 RMB/ton year-on-year [7]. - The average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 6.59 million tons, up 12.1% year-on-year, while average inventory levels decreased by 5% [7]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices may face upward pressure as the demand season approaches, despite recent price declines [9]. - It suggests that companies such as Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and Shanxi Coal International are worth monitoring for potential investment opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating, indicating a leading position in the market [5] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a dual transformation towards green and intelligent technologies, with significant growth potential for mining trucks in the new energy era [1] - The demand for unmanned mining trucks is expected to surge due to advancements in smart mining construction and supportive policies, with projections indicating a fleet exceeding 10,000 units by 2026-2027 [1][22] - The transition to new energy mining trucks is becoming mainstream, driven by mature technologies in pure electric and hybrid models, alongside favorable policies and cost advantages [2][37] Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - The continuous release of open-pit coal mine capacity is creating substantial growth opportunities for mining trucks, with open-pit coal mines accounting for approximately 25% of China's total coal production in 2023 [16] - The number of unmanned mining trucks is projected to increase from 88 units in 2020 to over 4,000 by 2025, with a forecast of surpassing 10,000 units by 2026-2027 [1][22] - The industry is accelerating its green transformation, with new energy mining trucks expected to see sales exceed 1,500 units in 2023 and forecasted to surpass 2,000 units by 2025 [2][37] 2. Market Information Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, with the average price of thermal coal reported at 685 RMB/ton as of January 21, 2026, remaining stable compared to January 7, 2026 [10] - Coking coal prices have seen an increase, with the main coking coal price at 1,770 RMB/ton as of January 20, 2026, up by 150 RMB/ton from January 6, 2026 [10] 3. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies from the National Energy Administration and other departments are promoting the construction of zero-carbon factories and the use of new energy vehicles in mining operations [9] - The report highlights the importance of smart mining and unmanned truck applications, supported by various national policies aimed at enhancing safety and efficiency in mining operations [35] 4. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in the coal sector, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from stable profits and cyclical recovery [11] - It also recommends monitoring companies involved in the production of new energy mining trucks, including XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry, and others, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market [2][43]