11月25日，三大指数强势反弹，截至收盘，沪指涨0.87%，深成指涨1.53%，创业板指涨1.77%，科创50 指数涨0.43%。两市超4000只个股上涨，沪深两市今日成交额约1.81万亿元。 通信、CPO板块涨幅居前，德科立（688205.SH）、光库科技（300620.SZ）、长光华芯（688048.SH） 涨20%，长芯博创（300548.SZ）、炬光科技（688167.SH）涨13.87%，长飞光纤（601869.SH）涨 9.99%。 市场机构认为，短期来看，随着美联储多位重量级官员接连释放鸽派信号，市场对12月份降息25个基点 的预期重新升温，这将为金银价格提供重要支撑，贵金属或延续震荡格局。在美联储12月份议息会议前 夕，建议投资者密切关注政策预期变化，严格控制仓位，灵活应对可能加剧的市场波动。 锂电板块亦活跃，天际股份（002759.SZ）、龙蟠科技（603906.SH）、诺德股份（600110.SH）涨 10%，华盛锂电（688353.SH）涨超6%。 消息面上，六氟磷酸锂最新平均报价为16.05万元/吨，较前一个交易日上涨1.58%。近日，天赐材料在 接受机构调研时表示，六氟磷酸锂行业经历 ...

行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7155.23 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 7829.42 | | 52 | 周最低 | 4280.14 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-11-25 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 《储能市场景气，碳酸锂需求维持高 增》 - 2025.11.17 有色金属行业报告 （2025.11.17-2025.11.21） 宏观扰动加剧，建议逢低做多贵金属 l 投资要点 贵金属：坚定持有，等待下一轮主升浪。贵金属本周继续震荡， 波动有所下降但仍在下降区间。之前我们提示，沪金沪银波动率过高， 高波下或迎来调整，耐心等待买入时机，建议在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a collective rise in gold and copper prices, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing signs of recovery [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for a rate cut in December, citing stable inflation and concerns about the labor market [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will likely initiate a rate cut in December, with potential further cuts in 2025, bringing the benchmark rate down to the 3%-3.25% range [3]. - The current economic conditions suggest a tilt towards accelerated rate cuts if the economic downturn exceeds expectations [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Commodity Prices - The market's anticipation of the Fed's rate cut has provided upward momentum for physical asset prices, with COMEX gold and LME copper both rising over 1% [4]. - The copper production target for Freeport-McMoRan in Indonesia has been lowered to 478,000 tons for 2026 due to operational disruptions, which may lead to short-term supply concerns and support higher copper prices [4]. Group 3: Copper Price Projections - UBS has raised its copper price targets for 2026, with the new target set at $13,000 per ton, reflecting a bullish outlook on copper prices [5]. - The copper market is expected to maintain an upward price trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric power, new energy vehicles, and data centers [8]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw significant gains, with leading stocks like Huaxi Nonferrous rising over 8% and several others increasing by more than 3% [6]. - The non-ferrous metal sector is characterized by tight supply and strong demand, with aluminum prices expected to remain high due to limited new capacity and robust demand [9]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold and copper content," with 33% copper and 13% gold, making it a leading choice in the sector [10]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [12].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve have led to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a rebound in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant gains in related ETFs and stocks [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) increased by 1.60% as of 13:30, with notable stock performances including Huaxi Nonferrous rising by 8.49% and Western Gold increasing by 4.60% [1]. - Over the past seven trading days, the non-ferrous metals ETF has seen net inflows for six days, totaling 343 million yuan, with the latest share count reaching 1.241 billion, marking a new high since its inception [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The non-ferrous metals ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of October 31, 2025, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum, collectively accounting for 53.58% of the index [1]. - The top ten stocks by weight are as follows: - Zijin Mining: 16.32% - Northern Rare Earth: 6.60% - Luoyang Molybdenum: 5.96% - Huayou Cobalt: 5.22% - Shandong Gold: 3.85% - Ganfeng Lithium: 3.72% - China Aluminum: 3.53% - Zhongjin Gold: 3.44% - Chifeng Gold: 2.67% - Tianqi Lithium: 2.66% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks continue to rebound, showing positive performance in the market [1] Company Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) increased by 5.29%, reaching HKD 29.48 [1] - Zhaojin Mining Industry (01818.HK) rose by 3.89%, trading at HKD 29.88 [1] - Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK) saw a gain of 3.03%, priced at HKD 31.3 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (01787.HK) experienced a rise of 1.6%, with a price of HKD 34.28 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks continue to rebound, supported by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may provide significant support for gold and silver prices in the short term [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (赤峰黄金) increased by 5.29%, reaching HKD 29.48 [1] - Zhaojin Mining Industry (招金矿业) rose by 3.89%, reaching HKD 29.88 [1] - Zijin Mining (紫金矿业) saw a 3.03% increase, reaching HKD 31.3 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (山东黄金) grew by 1.6%, reaching HKD 34.28 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed support for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have been rekindled due to dovish signals from several key Fed officials [1] - The precious metals market is anticipated to maintain a volatile pattern as a result of these developments [1] Group 3: Economic Data - U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 51,000 [1] - However, revisions for the previous two months indicated a downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate and the number of permanent job losses have increased, indicating ongoing pressure in the U.S. labor market [1]

Group 1 - Gold stocks continue to rebound, with notable increases in share prices: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) up 5.29% to HKD 29.48, Zhaojin Mining (01818) up 3.89% to HKD 29.88, Zijin Mining (02899) up 3.03% to HKD 31.3, and Shandong Gold Mining (01787) up 1.6% to HKD 34.28 [1][1][1] Group 2 - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, which has led to renewed market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in December, providing important support for gold and silver prices [1][1][1] - Citic Securities reports mixed signals from the U.S. non-farm payroll data for September, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 51,000, but with downward revisions of 33,000 jobs for August and July combined, indicating uncertainty regarding a rate cut in December [1][1][1] - The unemployment rate and permanent unemployment figures have risen, suggesting ongoing pressure in the U.S. job market, with potential for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the gold sector, with the CSI Gold Industry Index rising by 1.91% and significant gains in individual stocks such as Zhaojin Mining and Zhongjin Gold [1] - The gold stock ETF (517520) has seen a substantial increase, rising over 2% and achieving a cumulative increase of 22.48% over the past three months, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The gold stock ETF has reached a new high in shares, totaling 7.29 billion, and has experienced a net inflow of over 940 million in the past nine days, reflecting robust demand [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a potential interest rate cut in December, with an 82.7% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, which could influence gold prices positively [3] - Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, contributing to demand, although some may reduce their holdings due to high gold prices exceeding target allocations [3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to declining dollar credit, persistent demand for safe-haven assets, and the normalization of central bank gold purchases [4] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF (517520) is described as a "magnifier" of gold prices, offering higher elasticity during price increases, making it an attractive investment option for capturing gold price gains [5] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Gold Industry Index and invests in high-quality gold companies across the Hong Kong and mainland markets, providing a diversified exposure to the gold sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that there is significant divergence regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December, which is expected to support precious metal prices, particularly gold [2][4]. Precious Metals - Gold price reached $4,072.85 per ounce, with a slight increase of $1.75 per ounce or 0.04% compared to November 14 [2]. - Silver price was $48.91 per ounce, showing a decrease of $3.11 per ounce or -5.97% compared to November 14 [2]. - The market anticipates a 71.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [4]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper price on LME closed at $10,700 per ton, down by $150 per ton or -1.38% from November 14 [5]. - SHFE copper price was 85,650 CNY per ton, decreasing by 1,170 CNY per ton or -1.35% from November 14 [5]. - Domestic aluminum price was 21,360 CNY per ton, down by 530 CNY from November 14 [7]. - The report suggests that copper prices may remain volatile due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [6]. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 291,420 CNY per ton, down by 1,620 CNY or -0.55% from November 14 [9]. - Antimony ingot price remained stable at 171,000 CNY per ton, with low inventory levels among traders supporting price rebound expectations [10]. Investment Ratings - The gold industry is rated as "recommended" due to the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [11]. - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" despite short-term uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts, as copper supply remains tight [12]. - The aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" rating due to rigid supply conditions [13]. - Tin and antimony industries are rated "recommended" based on supply constraints and recent price rebounds [13]. Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold [14]. - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [14]. - For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [14]. - Tin and antimony recommendations include Xiyang Co. and Hunan Gold [14].

Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the positive outlook for copper and aluminum, while emphasizing the potential for rare metals and lithium to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and technological advancements [1][3]. Copper Industry - The copper supply-demand landscape is influenced by ongoing global supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with expectations for price increases supported by a global interest rate cut cycle [3][21]. - Domestic copper production is projected to slow down due to tightening copper concentrate supplies and low smelting fees, while demand from the renewable energy sector and AI electronics is expected to continue rising [3][50]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's refined copper production reached 889.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14%, driven by significant contributions from recycled copper and improved smelting technology [3][28]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by rigid supply constraints and differentiated demand, with prices expected to rise due to strong demand from the renewable energy sector and gradual recovery in the real estate market [3][55]. - Domestic aluminum production is supported by stable bauxite supply and increasing imports, with a notable rise in imported bauxite by 33.6% year-on-year [3][59]. - The report indicates that the aluminum price is likely to maintain an upward trajectory due to the ongoing economic recovery and the anticipated demand from various sectors [3][55]. Strategic Metals - The rare earth supply is expected to stabilize, but demand needs to be boosted, particularly from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][4]. - Tungsten supply is projected to remain tight due to resource depletion and environmental regulations, while demand is stable, driven by applications in hard alloys and emerging technologies [3][4]. - Lithium production is set to benefit from the rapid expansion of energy storage and solid-state battery technologies, with a significant increase in demand anticipated [3][4]. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain its upward momentum due to declining dollar credit and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term volatility [3][5]. - The report highlights that gold's monetary attributes are likely to be reinforced amid geopolitical tensions and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Western Mining (601168) for industrial metals, while recommending Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) for small metals and new materials [6]. - For energy metals, Ganfeng Lithium (002460) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) are highlighted as key players to watch [6]. - In the precious metals sector, Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) are recommended due to their potential for price appreciation [6].