周期论剑｜外部冲击下周期的价值 20250511 摘要 在当前经济形势下，如何看待中国股票市场的投资机会？ 投资者对经济形势的认识逐步充分，目前投资中国股市的机会成本正在快速下 降。国内政策的连续性有望稳定风险前景，继续看好中国市场，特别是金融、 科技和部分周期板块。策略团队在 4 月 7 日市场低点时明确判断中国股票市场 进入击球区，并持续看多中国股市。本周上证指数再度上涨 1.92%，收复了对 等关税以来的指数失地。今年 3~4 月份股票市场调整和投资者情绪修复，是自 去年 9 月 24 日之后非常重要的一次转折。这表明了投资者对于中美竞争严峻 性以及决策层扭转经济形势决心的疑虑有所削减，是风险释放也是试金石。下 一阶段继续维持乐观看法，理由包括：经历冲击后投资者对经济形势认识已然 充分；美国对等关税后总体进入拉锯和谈判窗口期；中美之间竞争长期存在， 股票市场预期关键在内不在外。政治局会议及国新办发布会释放了以内部确定 性应对外部不确定性的信号，存量政策加速部署，增量政策箭在弦上，中国股 • 煤炭价格加速下行，但供给收缩、需求旺季来临，不宜继续看空市场。中 美贸易冲突对二产用电影响有限，动力煤企业平均成本 ...

Group 1 - The China-US economic and trade high-level talks held in Geneva from May 10 to 11 were described as candid, in-depth, and constructive, achieving important consensus and substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism [3] - In 2024, 27 cities in China are expected to have a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with 8 cities reporting GDP growth rates of 6% or higher in Q1 [3] Group 2 - In April, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.755 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, marking a historical high for April [4] - The judicial restructuring of Jinke Properties has entered an important execution phase, potentially making it the first large listed real estate company in China to successfully undergo judicial restructuring [4] Group 3 - Over 30 provinces in China have piloted the sale of existing homes since the end of 2022, with the sales area of existing homes expected to reach approximately 300 million square meters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [6] - Beijing has released its 2025 housing development annual plan, aiming to optimize housing land supply and prioritize development around well-equipped areas [6] Group 4 - In May, 28 stocks in the A-share market will face the lifting of lock-up restrictions, with a total of 1.066 billion shares being unlocked, valued at approximately 18.63 billion yuan [9] - Fund companies have conducted intensive research on 109 listed companies, mainly in the electronics, machinery, and computer sectors, with a focus on semiconductor companies [9] Group 5 - Saudi Aramco reported a net profit of $26 billion in Q1, a year-on-year decrease of about 5%, with capital expenditures of $12.5 billion [18] - OpenAI is in discussions with Microsoft to unlock new funding and prepare for a future IPO [18]

Group 1 - The Beijing Activity Week for the 2025 Osaka World Expo successfully concluded, featuring over 20,000 attendees and more than 10 events, showcasing Beijing's openness and inclusivity to the world [1] - The event included hands-on experiences with traditional Chinese crafts, such as the making of Chinese brushes, attracting international visitors and promoting cultural exchange [3][5] - A significant highlight was the introduction of the "Chuangyou Tong" innovative scheme, which combines communication and payment services, aimed at enhancing the travel experience for international tourists in Beijing [8] Group 2 - The Beijing Cultural and Tourism Bureau reported a 11.2% year-on-year increase in Japanese tourist arrivals in the first quarter, with expectations of 1.2 million Chinese tourists visiting Japan this year, indicating strong bilateral tourism potential [9] - The "Invest in Beijing, Win Together" promotional event showcased Beijing's favorable business environment and attracted foreign investment through various agreements and collaborations [11] - Multiple international cooperation agreements were signed during the event, including partnerships between Beijing's trade promotion agency and Japan's international trade association, enhancing cross-border business relations [12][14]

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" [2][17]. Core Viewpoints - The logistics sector is expected to continue its robust growth, driven by the rise of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [28]. - The express delivery industry maintained a relatively high growth rate in volume, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5% in 2024, reaching 175.08 billion packages, and a 21.6% increase in Q1 2025, totaling 45.14 billion packages [26][30]. - The price competition in the express delivery sector has intensified, leading to pressure on single-package profitability, with the average price per package dropping by 8.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [3][32]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - **Volume Growth**: The express delivery industry experienced a strong growth in volume, with major companies like Shunfeng, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reporting package volumes of 3.541 billion, 6.779 billion, 6.076 billion, and 5.807 billion respectively in Q1 2025, with growth rates of 19.7%, 21.7%, 22.9%, and 26.6% [26][30]. - **Price and Profitability**: The average price per package in the industry was 7.66 yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year. Shunfeng's net profit increased by 16.9% year-on-year, while YTO, Yunda, and Shentong saw net profit changes of -9.2%, -22.1%, and +24.0% respectively [3][32]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report recommends focusing on Shunfeng Holdings due to its strong cash flow and potential for growth in the express delivery sector [3][32]. Aviation - **Operational Status**: The aviation industry saw a recovery in passenger load factors, reaching 83.3% in 2024, slightly above 2019 levels. Domestic and international flight turnover volumes increased by 12.0% and 85.2% respectively [4][6]. - **Financial Performance**: Major airlines reduced losses significantly in 2024, with revenue growth for Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines at 18.1%, 8.9%, and 16.2% respectively [5][6]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report suggests focusing on airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines, anticipating improved performance as supply constraints and ticket prices recover [6]. Ports - **Operational Data**: The total cargo throughput for national ports reached 1.7595 billion tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.66%. In Q1 2025, throughput was 422.2 million tons, up 3.23% [7][8]. - **Financial Data**: Qingdao Port showed a net profit growth of 6.33% in 2024, while China Merchants Port's net profit increased by 26.44% [8]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report recommends focusing on Qingdao Port due to its superior return on equity (ROE) and dividend capabilities [8]. Highways - **Performance Overview**: The highway sector showed stable growth in Q1 2025, with passenger and freight volumes increasing by 0.5% and 5.4% respectively [9][10]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading highway operators like China Merchants Highway and Shandong Highway for their strong cash flow and growth potential [10]. Railways - **Operational Status**: Railway freight and passenger turnover volumes declined in 2024, with significant drops in the Daqin Line's freight volume [11][12]. - **Financial Performance**: Daqin Railway's net profit fell by 24.23% in 2024, while Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway's net profit increased by 10.6% [12]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report suggests a positive outlook for Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway as freight volumes are expected to recover [12]. Shipping - **Operational Data**: Oil shipping rates remained around $50,000 per day, while container shipping rates showed slight declines [13][14]. - **Financial Performance**: COSCO Shipping Holdings reported a net profit increase of 105.78% in 2024 [14]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report recommends focusing on stable companies like China Merchants Energy and Zhonggu Logistics amid fluctuating shipping rates [14]. Bulk Supply Chain - **Operational Status**: The bulk supply chain sector faced weak downstream demand, leading to a slight decrease in cargo volume for leading companies [15][16]. - **Financial Performance**: Major companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao reported significant declines in net profit [16]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report suggests that the sector may see a recovery in profits as demand improves and recommends focusing on companies with high dividend yields [16].

本文字数：1629，阅读时长大约3分钟 导读 ： 以年度人均薪酬计算，春秋航空的员工是A股上市航司中赚得最多的，春秋航空也是去年净利润最高的 上市航司。 作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 随着A股上市航司的2024年财报出齐，各家航司的高管和员工的薪酬情况也浮出水面。 第一财经记者梳理各家财报发现，以年度人均薪酬计算，春秋航空的员工是A股上市航司中赚得最多的，春秋 航空也是去年净利润最高的上市航司。 2025.05. 10 据记者了解，春秋航空的员工不仅是上市航司中赚得最多的，不少人还通过间接持股分享红利。 早在春秋航空成立之前，创始人王正华就将春秋航空母公司春秋国旅的一大部分股权，分给了公司的中高层管 理者和骨干员工，而在春秋航空上市后，春秋航空的四大股东公司也都是由自然人持股，大多为春秋航空和春 秋国旅的高管和业务骨干，他们也就成为春秋航空的间接股东。 王正华也曾对记者直言，春秋航空上市前不打算引进战略投资者或者财务投资者，但愿意让员工分享公司成长 的红利。 而从高管的年薪来看，飞行干部的薪水普遍更高，甚至高于公司的"一把手"。 最赚钱的航司员工赚最多 记者计算国内七家上市航空公司的人均年薪情况发现，以上海为主 ...

以年度人均薪酬计算，春秋航空的员工是A股上市航司中赚得最多的，春秋航空也是去年净利润最高的 上市航司。 随着A股上市航司的2024年财报出齐，各家航司的高管和员工的薪酬情况也浮出水面。 第一财经记者梳理各家财报发现，以年度人均薪酬计算，春秋航空的员工是A股上市航司中赚得最多 的，春秋航空也是去年净利润最高的上市航司。 而从高管的年薪来看，飞行干部的薪水普遍更高，甚至高于公司的"一把手"。 最赚钱的航司员工赚最多 记者计算国内七家上市航空公司的人均年薪情况发现，以上海为主基地的两家航空公司，2024年的人均 年薪超过30万。 其中春秋航空（601021.SH）2024年的员工人数8500人，人均年薪38.8万元；吉祥航空（603885.SH） 2024年的员工人数1.06万人，人均年薪32.2万元， 人均年薪位列第三的是海航控股（601221.SH），2024年员工人数3.49万人，人均年薪27.6万元。 之后是三大航中的中国国航（601111.SH），2024年员工人数10.49万人，人均年薪26.5万元；中国东航 （600115.SH）2024年员工人数8.51万人，人均年薪25.9万元；南方航空（6000 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 星期五 研报精选 "五一"旅游市场平稳增长，长线游与入境游表现亮眼 家电行业 25Q1 基金持仓跟踪报告 交运行业 25Q1 公募基金持仓跟踪报告 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 3,352.00 | 0.28% | | 深证成指 | 10,197.66 | 0.93% | | 沪深 300 | 3,852.90 | 0.56% | | 科创 50 | 1,026.44 | -0.36% | | 创业板指 | 2,029.45 | 1.65% | | 上证 50 | 2,679.51 | 0.33% | | 上证 180 | 8,546.20 | 0.14% | | 上证基金 | 6,902.65 | 0.35% | | 国债指数 | 224.77 | 0.05% | | [Table_InterIndex] | 国际市场表现 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines reported its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report, showing a steady growth in revenue but a decline in net profit for Q1 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue reached 20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with a net profit of 2.27 billion yuan, up 0.7% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw operating revenue of 4.02 billion yuan, a 4.9% increase, but a net loss of 330 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 5.32 billion yuan, a 2.9% increase, but a net profit decline of 16.4% to 680 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market and Operational Insights - The civil aviation market experienced steady growth in passenger volume, with a 16.1% increase in capacity and an 18.8% rise in passenger turnover for 2024 [2]. - The passenger load factor reached 91.49%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, although the international market grew faster than regional markets [2]. - Due to market competition and pricing pressures, the average passenger kilometer revenue decreased by 6.5% to 0.385 yuan [2]. Group 3: Cost Management and Future Outlook - The company's cost and expense performance remained stable in 2024, with oil costs rising due to increased consumption despite lower oil prices [3]. - Non-oil costs were well-controlled, with a slight decrease in unit non-oil costs year-on-year [3]. - The company plans to focus more on expanding international routes in 2025, with a tax shield effect contributing to the Q1 profit decline, while pre-tax profit increased by 0.5% year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The civil aviation market in China has significant growth potential, and low-cost airlines continue to show operational resilience [4]. - The current decline in oil prices is expected to benefit airline cost reductions significantly [4]. - Projected net profits for the company are 2.71 billion yuan, 3.25 billion yuan, and 3.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

发布时间：2025-05-08 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 证券研究报告：交通运输 | 公司点评报告 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 55.45 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）9.78 | / 9.78 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）542 | / 542 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 62.18 / 48.22 | | 资产负债率(%) | 60.3% | | 市盈率 | 23.80 | | 第一大股东 | 上海春秋国际旅行社 | | | (集团)有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 春秋航空(601021) 低成本航空韧性凸显，扣税盾业绩保持坚挺 l 春秋航空披露 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报 春秋航空披露 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司营业 收入 200.0 亿元，同比增长 11.5%，实现归母净利润 22.7 亿元，同比 增长 0.7%，其中第四季度营业收入 40.2 亿元，同比增长 4.9%，归母 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][11]. Core Views - The low-cost airline model demonstrates resilience, with the company expected to benefit from a significant reduction in oil prices, positively impacting cost management [7]. - The civil aviation market in China continues to show growth potential, with the company focusing on expanding international routes despite slight declines in domestic market performance [6][7]. - The company's financial performance for 2024 aligns with expectations, with stable cost management and a slight increase in net profit forecasted for the coming years [5][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 55.45 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 542 billion yuan [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 20 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 2.27 billion yuan, which is a 0.7% increase [3][9]. - The company’s operating capacity increased by 16.1% year-on-year, with passenger turnover rising by 18.8% [4]. Financial Projections - Forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.59 billion yuan, 23.06 billion yuan, and 24.62 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.96%, 6.82%, and 6.76% [9]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 2.71 billion yuan, 3.25 billion yuan, and 3.74 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19.08%, 19.96%, and 15.12% [9][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 2.32 yuan in 2024 to 3.82 yuan in 2027 [9][10].