Report Overview - Research Variety: Live pigs [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - The lh2603 live pig futures contract showed a volatile trend, closing at 11,415 points, up 0.71% from the previous settlement price, with a trading volume of 56,400 lots and an open interest of 161,900 lots [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - All live pig futures contracts generally rose, with a total open interest of 344,624 lots, a decrease of 2,251 lots from the previous trading day [4] 1.3 Related Quotes - The trading volume of live pig options was 11,008 lots, the total open interest was 57,599 lots, an increase of 1,378 lots, and the total exercise volume on the day was 0 lots [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - The live pig basis was 245 yuan/ton yesterday and 239 yuan/ton today, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, showing a slight convergence [7] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The warehouse receipt report of the Dalian Commodity Exchange showed that there were 863 registered warehouse receipts today, an increase of 40 lots from the previous trading day [8] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - Shanghai will include the live pig income insurance in the municipal financial agricultural insurance premium subsidy regular insurance, with different subsidy ratios for farmers in涉农 areas and municipal - owned enterprises, and the financial department will subsidize the insurance premiums for pigs within 105% of the basic supply volume [10][11] 3.2 Technical Analysis - The lh2603 live pig futures contract closed with a positive daily line, with a brief intraday rise. The K - line was near the upper track of the BOLL line, and the BOLL line was in a closing state [12] 4. Market Outlook - After the Winter Solstice, the small peak of demand in the live pig market has passed, and the supply - side contradiction remains to be released. However, the southern curing has gradually started, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening has increased. The price of the LH2603 live pig futures contract will continue the low - level volatile trend, and is expected to remain in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [14][15]

内部审计制度 第一章 总 则 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 内部审计制度 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 第一条为了进一步规范公司内部审计工作,明确内部审计机构和人员的责 任，保证审计质量，明确审计责任，促进经营管理，提高经济效益，根据《中华 人民共和国审计法》、《审计署关于内部审计工作的规定》、《上海证券交易所 股票上市规则》、《上海证券交易所上市公司内部控制指引》等相关法律、法规、 规范性文件和《公司章程》的规定，结合公司实际情况,制定本制度。 第二条 本制度所称内部审计，是指由公司内部机构或人员，对其内部控制 和风险管理的有效性、财务信息的真实性和完整性以及经营活动的效率和效果等 开展的一种评价活动。 第三条 本制度所称内部控制，是指公司董事会、高级管理人员及其他有关 人员为实现下列目标而提供合理保证的过程： （一）遵守国家法律、法规、规章及其他相关规定； （四）确保公司信息披露的真实、准确、完整和公平。 第四条 公司应当依照国家有关法律、法规、规章及本制度的规定，结合公 司所处行业和经营特点，建立健全内部审计制度，防范和控制公司风险，增强公 司信息披露的可靠性。内部审计制度应当经董事会审议通过。 ...

农林牧渔行业：欧盟猪肉反倾销税 落地，国内供需格局向好 2025 年 12 月 25 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 事件：商务部宣布，自 2025 年 12 月 17 日起，中国对原产于欧盟的进口猪肉 及猪副产品征收反倾销税，实施期限 5 年，税率范围为 4.9%至 19.8%。 进口压力缓解，行业供需根本仍在国内。为期 5 年反倾销税的征收有利于缓解 低价进口猪肉及副产品对我国市场的压力，然而仍需清醒地认识到，我国猪价 变化的决定因素是国内供需格局。截至 2025 年 10 月，国内能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，仍高于 3900 万头的正常保有量，未来一段时间行业供过于求，价 格低迷的趋势仍将持续，在政策管控和行业亏损下，行业落后产能将进一步去 化。国内养殖行业将向提升养殖效率，降低养殖成本，绿色化智能化的方向升 级，持续修炼内功，提升竞争力。短期来看，生猪养殖行业供需格局向好，推 荐关注生猪养殖行业的左侧布局机会；中长期来看，行业高质量发展，市场集 中度有望进一步提升。重点推荐养殖头部企业牧原股份，其他受益标的有温氏 股份、德康农牧、天康生物、神农集团等。 风险提示：生猪产能去化不及预期，市场消费 ...

Summary of Shennong Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennong Group - **Industry**: Pig Farming Key Points and Arguments Production and Cost Targets - **Expected Output**: Shennong Group anticipates a production volume of 3.5 million pigs in 2025, with a focus on controlling total costs below 12 CNY/kg, aiming for 11.5 CNY/kg [2][6] - **Regional Focus**: The majority of output will be concentrated in Yunnan and the Guangxi and Guangdong regions, with an expected output of nearly 1 million pigs from these areas [2][7] Cost Management Strategies - **Cost Reduction Measures**: The company plans to lower farming costs through several strategies: - Improving PSY (Pigs Weaned per Sow per Year) to 30.3 heads, with a target of over 30 heads next year - Maintaining a feed-to-meat ratio around 2.45 - Achieving a survival rate exceeding 85% - Stabilizing weaning costs at approximately 270 CNY [2][4][9][8] Market Conditions and Price Forecast - **Current Market Trends**: The overall trend for pig prices is declining after a profitable period of about 18 months, with farmers experiencing losses for about a quarter [3] - **Future Price Expectations**: The average pig price for 2026 is expected to be weaker than in 2025, ranging between 12 to 13 CNY/kg, with no significant price rebound anticipated in the first half of the year [15] Production Indicators - **Key Production Metrics**: As of November, the total cost was 12 CNY/kg, with a weaning cost of 269 CNY per head and a PSY of 30.3 heads [4][8] Dependency on Contract Farming - **Contract Farming Model**: Currently, about 70% of production is through contract farming, with plans to increase this to 80% or even 90%. There are no plans for new self-built capacity [5][16] Financial Performance of Other Segments - **Other Business Segments**: - Feed sales have decreased, yielding only slight profits - Slaughtering operations generate annual profits in the tens of millions - The deep processing segment is currently in a strategic loss phase but aims for breakeven within five years [20] Disease Control and Impact - **Disease Management**: The company has maintained stable disease control, with minimal impact from African swine fever and blue ear disease on production [12][14] Capital Expenditure and Dividend Policy - **Capital Expenditure**: The budget for capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to remain stable without significant fluctuations [18] - **Dividend Policy**: Dividends will be considered annually based on operational performance, ensuring funds are available for shareholder needs [19] Regional Cost Differences - **Cost Variations**: There are minor differences in farming costs across regions, with the best facilities achieving costs below 11.5 CNY/kg, while average facilities maintain around 12 CNY/kg [11] Raw Material Price Considerations - **Cost Targets and Raw Materials**: The cost targets for 2026 are based on raw material prices remaining stable compared to 2025, with adjustments made if prices fluctuate significantly [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on the pig industry, presenting fundamental data, market information, and trend strength, indicating that the speculative demand for pigs has been realized [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,780 yuan/ton, up 50 year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100; Guangdong spot price is 11,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. Futures prices for pig 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,300 yuan/ton (up 55), 11,480 yuan/ton (up 65), and 11,985 yuan/ton (up 50) respectively [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Pig 2601 trading volume is 4,890 lots, down 792 from the previous day, with an open interest of 21,478 lots, down 1,773. Pig 2603 trading volume is 64,490 lots, up 8,060, with an open interest of 161,915 lots, up 62. Pig 2605 trading volume is 13,800 lots, up 4,573, with an open interest of 82,431 lots, up 420 [3] - **Price Spreads**: Pig 2601 basis is 480 yuan/ton, down 5 year - on - year; pig 2603 basis is 300 yuan/ton, down 15; pig 2605 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, unchanged. Pig 1 - 3 spread is - 180 yuan/ton, down 10; pig 3 - 5 spread is - 505 yuan/ton, up 15 [3] 3.2 Market Information - Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December 2025, including Yunnan Shennong (85 lots on Dec 4), Guizhou Fuyuan (23 lots on Dec 5), Dekang (225 lots on Dec 10, 150 lots on Dec 11), Yangxiang (40 lots on Dec 10), COFCO (300 lots on Dec 15), and Muyuan (40 lots on Dec 23) [4] - The Ministry of Commerce determined that imported related pork and by - products from the EU are being dumped [5] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of ensuring food security and stabilizing agricultural product prices, with a focus on grain production and the rural revitalization strategy [2][3] - The report highlights the need for innovation in agriculture, advocating for the development of new productive forces through smart agriculture and biotechnology [4] Summary by Sections Agricultural Production and Price Stability - The central economic meeting stresses the need to strictly adhere to arable land limits and maintain grain production to keep prices of essential agricultural products at reasonable levels [2] - Since June 2025, a series of capacity control measures have been implemented, leading to a decrease in the breeding sow inventory to below 4,000 heads by October 2025, aligning with the central economic meeting's directives [2] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming industry, particularly on leading enterprises like Muyuan Foods, and other beneficiaries such as Wens Foodstuff Group and DeKang Agriculture [2] County Economic Development and Brand Agriculture - The report discusses the promotion of county-level economic development as a key driver for high-quality growth, suggesting the establishment of a full industry chain from production to branding [3] - It encourages agricultural enterprises to transition from bulk raw material producers to specialty agricultural brand companies, highlighting the potential for growth in county-level economies [3] Innovation and New Productive Forces - The report advocates for a new round of high-quality development actions in key industrial chains, emphasizing the integration of artificial intelligence in agriculture [4] - It identifies three key areas for investment: biotechnology innovation, agricultural machinery upgrades, and smart agriculture, recommending specific companies in each sector [4]

Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The supply-demand structure of the pig farming industry is improving, but short-term oversupply will continue to pressure pig prices in the first half of 2026, leading to ongoing industry losses [2][3] - Cost is a core factor for pig companies to achieve excess returns and long-term growth, especially significant during the down cycle [2] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards larger-scale farming, which is reshaping the market dynamics and reducing the volatility of pig prices [2][3] Group 2: Feed and Animal Health - The animal health sector is seeing a weakening of its cyclical attributes, with research and innovation becoming the core competitive advantage for long-term growth [4] - The feed industry is expected to benefit from high livestock inventory supporting demand, while the aquatic feed sector is expected to operate steadily under rational farming behavior [5] - Domestic market competition is fierce, with leading feed companies expected to enhance their competitiveness through cost control and refined management [5] Group 3: Pet Food Market - The pet food market is experiencing a reshaping of global supply-demand dynamics due to tariff disturbances, but domestic consumption remains robust [6] - There is a clear trend of domestic brands rising in the pet food sector, with companies adapting to health and refinement trends in consumer preferences [6] - Recommended stocks in the pet food industry include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ) and Petty Co., Ltd. (300673.SZ) [6]

2025 年 12 月 23 日 生猪：反套持有 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11680 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11800 | | -300 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11960 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11165 | | 15 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11345 | | 20 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11905 | | -20 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 ...

Macro and Strategy - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its dual industrial and financial attributes, with over 60% of silver used in industrial applications as of December 2025 [6][7] - The recent surge in silver prices was triggered by significant physical deliveries at the New York COMEX, with registered inventories dropping over 70% from their peak in 2020 [6] - Long-term demand for silver is expected to grow due to industrial applications in solar energy, AI, and electric vehicles, alongside continued global monetary easing [6] Industry and Company - The agricultural sector is witnessing a bullish trend in livestock prices, particularly for beef and milk, with expectations of a cyclical recovery in the meat and dairy markets [24][26] - The price of live pigs has increased to 11.57 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 2.03%, while beef prices are also on an upward trajectory [24][26] - The media and internet industry has shown resilience, with a 0.54% increase in the sector, outperforming major indices, driven by upcoming IPOs and strong box office performances from films like "Avatar 3" [27][28] - The copper industry is facing a significant shift as long-term processing fees for copper concentrate have been set to zero, indicating a potential improvement in the industry structure [31] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a downturn, with retail sales down 19% year-on-year in November, although there are signs of recovery in exports for certain categories like refrigerators and washing machines [32][33]

Investment Summary - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes for the agricultural sector in 2026: pig farming, feed and animal health, and pet food [4][5][6]. Group 1: Pig Farming - The supply-demand dynamics in the pig farming industry are improving, with a continued oversupply expected to pressure prices in the first half of 2026, leading to ongoing industry losses [4][16][19]. - The structural changes in pig farming post-African swine fever have led to increased scale and a rise in short-term farmers, resulting in narrower price fluctuations and reduced supply-demand conflicts [4][16][49]. - Cost management is crucial for pig farming companies to achieve excess returns and long-term growth, with significant differentiation expected among companies based on cost advantages [4][50][61]. - The report highlights that the valuation of the sector is at a low point, with expectations for recovery in the valuations of leading companies, particularly those with cost advantages like Muyuan Foods [5][61]. Group 2: Feed and Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing a weakening of its cyclical attributes, with research and innovation becoming the core focus for long-term growth [6][62][66]. - The feed market is characterized by competition in the domestic market, with an emphasis on cost control and precision management, while international markets present new growth opportunities for leading companies [6][62][66]. - The report recommends companies with strong research capabilities and cost control, such as Pulaike and KQ Bio, for long-term investment [6][62]. Group 3: Pet Food - The pet food market is expected to continue its growth despite short-term disruptions from tariffs, with domestic brands gaining market share [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to consumer trends towards health and refinement in product offerings, which is likely to enhance market share and profitability for domestic brands [6][7].