1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rates are fluctuating narrowly, credit bond yields have slightly declined, and most credit spreads are still narrowing. [3][9] - Most urban investment bond spreads have decreased by 1 - 2BP. [14] - Real - estate bond spreads are still widening, while most other industrial bond spreads are converging. [25] - This week, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - and - Perpetual bonds, "Two - and - Perpetual" bonds refer to bank Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds) have shown weak performance. Except for the 5Y variety, most yields have increased. [4][33] - The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has narrowed, while the excess spread of urban investment bonds has shown differentiation. [4][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest rates are fluctuating narrowly, credit bond yields have slightly declined, and most credit spreads are still narrowing - Interest - rate bond yields fluctuated narrowly. The yields of 1Y and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 1BP, the yield of 3Y decreased by 1BP, and the yields of 5Y and 7Y remained flat. [3][9] - Credit bond yields generally declined slightly. The yields of 1Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds increased by 1BP, while the other grades remained flat; the yield of 3Y AAA remained flat, and the other grades decreased by 2 - 4BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades increased by 1BP; the yields of 7Y all grades decreased by 1 - 3BP; the yields of 10Y all grades increased by 1BP. [3][9] - Most credit spreads slightly converged. The credit spreads of 1Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades narrowed by 1BP; the spread of 3Y AAA increased by 1BP, the spread of AA - decreased by 1BP, and the other grades compressed by 3BP; the spreads of 5Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades widened by 1BP; the spreads of 7Y all grades narrowed by 1 - 3BP; the spreads of 10Y all grades narrowed by 1BP. [3][9] 3.2 Most urban investment bond spreads have decreased by 1 - 2BP - In terms of external ratings, the credit spreads of external - rated AAA platforms generally decreased by 1BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of AA + and AA platforms generally decreased by 2BP. [14] - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial - level platforms generally decreased by 1BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of prefecture - level and district - county - level platforms generally decreased by 2BP. [19] 3.3 Real - estate bond spreads are still widening, while most other industrial bond spreads are converging - Most industrial bond spreads converged. The spread of Vanke continued to compress significantly, but the spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds and other private - enterprise real - estate bonds still widened overall. [25] - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds widened by 1 - 3BP, the spread of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 188BP, and the spread of private - enterprise real - estate bonds increased by 15BP. [25] - The spread of Longfor decreased by 2BP, that of CIFI increased by 49BP, that of Vanke decreased by 1802BP, that of Midea Real Estate decreased by 1BP, that of Huafa increased by 13BP, and that of Poly increased by 3BP. [25] - The spread of AA - grade coal bonds increased by 1BP, and the other grades decreased by 1BP; the spread of AAA - grade steel bonds remained flat, and that of AA + decreased by 2BP; the spread of AAA - grade chemical bonds remained flat, and that of AA + decreased by 1BP. [25] 3.4 This week, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have shown weak performance. Except for the 5Y variety, most yields have increased - The yields of 1Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds remained flat, and the spreads decreased by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds increased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads increased by 0 - 1BP. [33] - The yields of 3Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads widened by 3 - 4BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds remained flat, and the spreads widened by 1BP. [33] - The yields of 5Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds decreased by 0 - 2BP, the yields of perpetual bonds remained flat, and the spreads changed by the same margin. [33] - The yields of 10Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 2 - 5BP, and the spreads widened by 1 - 3BP; the yields of perpetual bonds increased by 5BP, and the spreads increased by 3BP. [33] 3.5 The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has narrowed, while the excess spread of urban investment bonds has shown differentiation - The excess spread of industrial AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds converged by 0.76BP compared with last week to 13.91BP, at the 36.17% percentile since 2015. The excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds remained the same as last week at 13.21BP, at the 33.60% percentile since 2015. [36] - The excess spread of urban - investment AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.83BP to 4.86BP, at the 5.43% percentile. The excess spread of urban - investment 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 3.72BP to 9.62BP, at the 11.15% percentile. [36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data. The historical percentiles are since the beginning of 2015. [38] - The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical percentiles are since the beginning of 2015. [38] - The credit spreads of industrial and urban - investment individual bonds = the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds - the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by the linear interpolation method), and finally the arithmetic average method is used to calculate the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban - investment bonds. [40] - The excess spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds = the credit spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds - the credit spread of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term. The excess spread of industrial/urban - investment perpetual bonds = the credit spread of industrial/urban - investment perpetual bonds - the credit spread of medium - term notes of the same grade and term. [40] - Sample screening criteria and other information: Both industrial and urban - investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bond samples, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical samples. Industrial and urban - investment bonds are all external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings. [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for quality commercial real estate and potential value reassessment [4][6]. Core Insights - The first batch of three commercial real estate REITs has been accepted by the CSRC, covering underlying assets such as office buildings, hotels, and outlet malls. The expected fundraising sizes are CNY 4.002 billion for Huatai Fu Shanghai Real Estate REIT, CNY 7.47 billion for CICC Vipshop REIT, and CNY 1.703 billion for Huaan Jinjiang REIT, with projected cash distribution rates of 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% respectively for 2026 [2][4][5]. - The rapid advancement of commercial real estate REITs by the CSRC is expected to lead to a broader range of participants and faster approvals in the future. This contrasts with the slower progress seen in infrastructure REITs under the NDRC [4][5]. - The establishment of a multi-tiered market for commercial real estate asset securitization is anticipated to activate existing assets, mitigate risks, and assist in corporate transformation. This will provide new financing channels and enhance the visibility of asset values [4][5]. - The report highlights two significant opportunities: the reassessment of quality commercial real estate values and the strength of premium products in core cities, suggesting that further supportive policies for the real estate market are likely to emerge [4][6]. Summary by Sections REITs Overview - The first three commercial real estate REITs cover assets including office buildings and hotels, with expected fundraising sizes of CNY 40.02 billion, CNY 74.7 billion, and CNY 17.03 billion, and cash distribution rates projected at 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% for 2026 respectively [4][5]. Differences Between REITs - The report outlines key differences between NDRC and CSRC REITs, including the asset ownership structure, approval processes, and types of underlying assets, indicating a shift towards including private enterprises in the CSRC REITs [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, and others in the commercial real estate sector, as well as quality property management firms [4][6].

北皇姑四台子，曾经是沈阳"炙手可热"的楼市板块，万科、华润置地、保利发展、龙湖、招商蛇口等品牌房企纷纷屯兵于此。但随着在售楼盘的陆续售 罄，板块随之沉寂。 板块上一次供地，还要追溯到2020年。招商蛇口以5600元/建筑平方米的价格，以及配建27000平租赁用房的附加条件竞得北四台子村二期-2地块，打造招 商公园1872项目。 重磅消息传来，2026政府工作报告显示，皇姑区加快怒江北街西-1、澜沧江街西等总面积27.55万平方米的5宗土地整理和出让工作，四台子板块又 要"杀"回来了！ 地上建筑拆除？怒江北街西-1地块终于要拍了 据了解，怒江北街西-1地块并非新面孔。 2023年2月24日，皇姑区举行核心板块项目推介签约大会暨城市更新合伙人启动仪式，怒江北街西-1地块就曾亮相。 地块整体呈"长方形"，较"方正"，目前已为"净地"。地块整体体量不大，猜测土地面积20000平方米左右。 另外，值得一提的是，地块位于皇姑与于洪区交界处。2025年10月21日，富禹地产以楼面价2250元/建筑平方竞得于洪区17.9万平正良四路1-1地块。 随着该地块的建设以及怒江北街西-1地块的出让，未来区域整体面貌将大幅提升，皇姑、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the commercial real estate REITs sector [6]. Core Insights - The launch of commercial real estate REITs in China is expected to significantly improve corporate cash flow and performance, optimizing financial statements and guiding the industry towards a new model of development [2][6]. - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has entered the application stage, accelerating the development process [6]. - The report highlights several recommended companies across different categories, including development, residential-commercial, property management, and cultural tourism [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs covers diverse asset types such as hotels, offices, and commercial complexes, enhancing the range of underlying assets [2]. - Specific REITs mentioned include: 1. Huazhong Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 1.703 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 3.44% for 2025 [6]. 2. Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 4.002 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.50% for 2026 [6]. 3. CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 7.47 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.57% for 2026 [6]. Company Profitability Forecast - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating [8]. - Notable companies include: - Vanke A, with a projected EPS of -4.17 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 54.22 [8]. - China Overseas Development, with a projected EPS of 1.43 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 8.93 [8]. - Longfor Group, with a projected EPS of 1.58 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 5.93 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a significant recovery in operational assets despite short-term performance being affected by historical adjustments [1] Group 1: Industry Performance and Market Signals - The report highlights that among 78 A-share real estate companies that released performance forecasts, 58 reported losses, reflecting the objective reality of market adjustments over the past few years [1] - Positive signals are emerging in the industry, with the National Bureau of Statistics indicating that the adjustment phase has entered a deep water zone, with new and second-hand housing price indices in 70 major cities down by 12.6% and 21.3% from their peaks, respectively [1] - The downward trend in second-hand housing listings in major cities suggests an improving supply-demand relationship [1] - A significant article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need for comprehensive real estate policy support, boosting buyer confidence and laying a solid foundation for a quicker market stabilization [1] Group 2: REITs Market and Financial Health - The report notes a significant improvement in the approval efficiency of the REITs market, accelerating the securitization of quality assets, which strengthens real estate companies' balance sheets and reduces debt burdens [2] - The healthy cash flow of the household sector and a robust macroeconomic environment provide solid support for the continuous recovery of operational cash flows for enterprises [2] - The financing structure in the industry is undergoing a fundamental shift, moving from reliance on corporate credit bonds to project financing (REITs and property operation loans), effectively alleviating the core mismatch between assets and liabilities [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - Based on the analysis, CITIC Securities suggests an investment strategy focused on operational assets and the revaluation of core asset values in China [2] - Companies with core resources and operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Mixc Life, Joy City, New Century Holdings, Swire Properties, Hang Lung Properties, and Longfor Group, are highlighted as having significant advantages [2] - With the expectation of a positive resonance between household and corporate balance sheets, the real estate industry is poised to emerge from the adjustment phase and enter a new recovery stage [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 27,968.09 points, up 0.51%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1% to 5,841.1 points [5][6] - The market turnover decreased to HKD 331.99 billion, with net inflows of HKD 4.84 billion recorded in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [5][6] Sector Performance - The real estate sector showed strength, with a 2.8% increase in the Hang Seng Industry Index, led by China Overseas Development, which rose by 6.1%, and Longfor Group, which increased by 5.8% [5][6] - Conversely, the technology sector faced declines, with Horizon Robotics falling by 5.9% and Huahong Semiconductor down by 5.3% [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of "technological self-reliance" and AI applications as key themes for future growth in the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that leading companies in these sectors may see long-term development opportunities [3][10] - Specific recommendations include focusing on sectors supported by policies for "expanding domestic demand," such as sports apparel and non-essential service consumption, as well as undervalued central state-owned enterprises with high dividends [3][10] Company Highlights - China Railway (00390.HK) has shown significant stock performance, with a notable increase of 8.6% on Monday and 6.0% on Wednesday, indicating strong market interest [3][10] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 773.814 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%, but its mineral resources segment performed well, with an 8.04% increase in revenue [10]

Group 1 - In 2025, Shenyang implemented precise policies to better meet residents' rigid and improved housing demands, effectively boosting buyer confidence and promoting property transactions [1] - The land market in Shenyang saw a resurgence of premium land grabbing, with many high-quality projects entering the market, making successful "first openings" a norm [1] - The top three real estate companies in Shenyang by sales volume in 2025 were Aoyuan, Yirun, and Daobuduan, with sales figures of 2,490 million m², 1,351 million m², and 1,300 million m² respectively [2] Group 2 - The top three companies in terms of registered residential area in Shenyang were China Overseas, China Resources Land, and Longfor, with China Overseas holding the title of "triple crown" in area, amount, and number of units [4] - The leading residential projects by registered area included China Resources Land's Zhonghuanyuefu, China Overseas's Tianduan, and Songming Xinghewan, indicating a shift from demand for basic housing to improved housing products [7] - In the Heping District, the top three projects by registered area were China Overseas's Lingguan No. 1, Yujing New World, and Runqi Hepingli, showcasing strong performance in the area [13] Group 3 - In the Hunnan District, the top three projects by registered area were China Overseas's Tianduan, Shenyang Xinghewan, and China Overseas's Shengjing Juzhang, with multiple new projects entering the market [19] - The top three projects in the Tiexi District were Runxi Fu, Runyue Bay, and Tianyi Jingcheng's Milan Phase II, indicating a vibrant market with new projects on the horizon [29] - The top three projects in the Yuhong District were Hongfa Huanhua Creek, Xuefu Meidi City, and Poly Heguang Yuhai, with several new projects expected to enter the market soon [32]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks continued to lead, closing up 0.51% with a trading volume of 332 billion [1] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the federal funds rate target range remains at 3.5% to 3.75%, with a voting result of 10 to 2 against a rate cut [1] - Oil prices are rising due to ongoing tensions in Iran, with WTI crude touching $65 per barrel, up 2.83%, marking a new high since September 2025 [1] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a historical high, with London gold nearing $5,600, leading to a rise in domestic gold jewelry prices to around 1,700 yuan per gram [2] - Despite the price increase, gold retail stocks did not see a corresponding rise, with concerns about potential profit-taking if prices decline [2] Commodities and Metals - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange approached $14,000 per ton, a historical high, benefiting companies like Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 6% [3] - Nickel resources are rebounding, with Zhongwei New Materials securing significant nickel ore supply and establishing a nickel raw material industrial base in Indonesia [3] Real Estate Sector - The Chinese government is encouraging local policies to digest existing real estate stock, leading to a surge in real estate stocks, with companies like Agile Group rising nearly 41% [4] - Real estate brokerage firms also saw gains, with Beike rising over 7% [4] Consumer Goods - The liquor market is experiencing price increases, with Moutai's original box price rising to 1,610 yuan per bottle [4] - There are rumors of Kweichow Moutai participating in SpaceX's Series A financing, which the company denied, yet it contributed to a surge in liquor stocks [5] Financial Performance - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported a 5.7% increase in total revenue to 2.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 239 million yuan, up 14.5% [6] - Nine Dragons Paper expects a profit of 2.15 billion to 2.25 billion yuan for the six months ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from 680 million yuan the previous year [6] Automotive Sector - The State Council released a plan to accelerate the development of service consumption in the automotive sector, which is expected to benefit automotive dealers like Meidong Automotive and Zhongsheng Holdings [7] Individual Stock Highlights - Sunny Optical Technology expects a net profit of approximately 4.589 billion to 4.723 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70% to 75% [8] - The growth is attributed to high-end smartphone camera specifications and improved product mix, despite a recent decline in stock price due to fluctuations in smartphone demand [8]

转自：智通财经 【大连新达盟与珠海万达商管任命新副董事长及CHO】智通财经1月29日电，记者了解到，大连新达盟 商业管理有限公司及珠海万达商业管理集团股份有限公司董事会宣布两项任命，赵泽生出任大连新达盟 与珠海万达商管副董事长，负责公司战略规划、对外合作及连接董事会与管理层等工作，并仍兼任银翼 投资公司总裁；其此前为合生商业总裁。李祯出任大连新达盟与珠海万达商管首席人力资源官 （CHO），全面负责人力资源管理工作，其此前曾任龙湖集团人力资源副总经理及龙湖智创生活人力 资源总经理。（智通财经记者 李洁） ...