Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a surge, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and improving demand, particularly in the rare earth and industrial metals markets [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) saw a price increase of over 1.8% as of September 3, with a trading volume exceeding 12 million yuan within the first 15 minutes of opening [1]. - The ETF attracted significant inflows of 75.6 million yuan over the past two days, reaching a new high of 207 million yuan in total assets as of September 2 [1]. - Key constituent stocks included silver, which hit the daily limit, while Western Gold and Zhongjin Gold rose by 5.81% and 4.79%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The industrial metals sector is benefiting from rising copper prices due to supply constraints, with a projected decrease of 52,500 tons in electrolytic copper production in September [3]. - The lithium market is facing oversupply, but high-cost production is being phased out, which may lead to price recovery [3]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market remains strong, supported by macroeconomic factors and supply disruptions [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is positioned for upward price movement due to low valuations and improving market conditions, with a potential "bull market" beginning [3][4]. - The strategic importance of metals like rare earths and lithium is highlighted in the context of global competition and domestic policy shifts aimed at optimizing production factors [4]. - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF provides diversified exposure to various metals, including copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), and rare earths (13.8%), which helps mitigate investment risks [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On September 2, a total of 33 target price adjustments were made by brokerages for listed companies, with notable increases in target prices for Zhongcai International, Zhucheng Technology, and Guangyun Technology, reflecting significant potential upside in their respective sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Zhongcai International received a target price increase of 43.65%, with a new target price of 13.00 yuan [2]. - Zhucheng Technology's target price was raised by 41.51%, now set at 75.00 yuan [2]. - Guangyun Technology saw a target price increase of 35.72%, with a new target price of 22.00 yuan [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 35 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on September 2, with notable mentions including Datang Power and China General Nuclear Power, each receiving one recommendation [3]. - Guangyun Technology's rating was upgraded from "Hold" to "Increase" by CITIC Securities [5]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - One company, Yihua Tong, had its rating downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" by Changjiang Securities [6]. - The only company receiving a new coverage rating was Chifeng Gold, which was rated "Buy" by CITIC Securities [7].

Group 1 - The report details the changes in the registered capital of China Aluminum Corporation as of August 31, 2025, indicating no increase or decrease in the registered capital, which remains at RMB 13,211,666,110 for both securities 601600 and 02600 [1][2] - The total registered capital at the end of the month is RMB 17,155,632,078, with no changes reported in the issued shares or treasury shares for both securities [1][2] - The number of issued shares for security 601600 remains at 13,211,666,110, and for security 02600, it remains at 3,943,965,968, with no changes in the total issued shares [1][2] Group 2 - The report confirms that there are no changes in the share options, warrants, or convertible bonds related to the issuer's share option plan, indicating stability in the company's equity structure [2] - There are no additional changes reported regarding the issued shares or treasury shares, reinforcing the consistency in the company's capital management [2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company after the acquisition of Hongtuo Industrial, positioning it as a leader in the electrolytic aluminum and alumina industry [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of Hongtuo Industrial for 63.52 billion yuan will transform the company into a fully integrated player in the aluminum industry, enhancing its production capabilities and market position [1][3]. - Hongtuo Industrial is a leading integrated aluminum producer in China, with significant production capacities in alumina (19 million tons) and electrolytic aluminum (6.459 million tons) [2][40]. - The company is expected to maintain high dividend yields post-acquisition, with projected net profits of 23.44 billion yuan in 2026, leading to a potential dividend yield of 6.3% to 6.9% depending on the payout ratio [3][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established in 2000 and listed in 2010, plans to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial by May 2025 for 63.52 billion yuan, marking a significant shift from aluminum processing to a fully integrated aluminum production model [1][10]. Financial Performance - Hongtuo Industrial's revenue for 2024 is projected at 149.29 billion yuan, a 15.8% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 18.15 billion yuan, reflecting a 168.7% growth [2][42]. - The company's revenue from aluminum processing is expected to grow, but it has faced pressure from intense competition, leading to a projected net loss of 1.9 billion yuan in 2025 without the acquisition [3][5]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The report highlights a strategic shift in production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, where electricity costs are lower due to abundant hydropower resources, which will help reduce production costs [2][54]. - The planned capacity transfer includes 44.8 thousand tons in 2025, 24.1 thousand tons in 2026, and 83.1 thousand tons in 2027, ultimately increasing Yunnan's capacity to 3.008 million tons by 2027 [55]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is set to become the second-largest electrolytic aluminum and alumina producer in China, following China Aluminum, with a clear competitive advantage due to its integrated production model [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand-supply dynamics in the aluminum industry, which are expected to support stable pricing and profitability [3][43]. Dividend Potential - The company is projected to become a high-dividend stock post-acquisition, with a historical dividend payout ratio increasing from 48% in 2021 to an expected 63.4% in 2024 [3][43].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國鋁業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601600 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666, ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國鋁業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601600 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is heating up, and the transition from the traditional off - season to the peak season in the domestic market supports aluminum prices [1]. - The domestic alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the rising cost may limit the downside of prices; the electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be cautiously bullish; the aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish [5][7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side Changes**: The construction of China Aluminum's bauxite mine and the start of the bauxite project in Qingzhen may reduce the domestic bauxite production and import in September. The domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the production may decrease in September. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic alumina import in September [4][21][39]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in ports has decreased, while the total inventory has increased [17][34]. - **Price and Cost**: The bauxite price has increased, pushing up the alumina production cost. The average full - cost of alumina production is about 2890 yuan/ton [21][26]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 2800 - 3000 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side Changes**: Some domestic projects are expected to increase production capacity, but the overall production in September may decrease. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic import in September [6][65][68]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory has increased, the bauxite inventory in ports has increased, and the inventory in LME has increased [51]. - **Price and Cost**: The theoretical weighted average full - cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16650 yuan/ton [65]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on dips, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [7]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side Changes**: The production of waste aluminum may increase, and the production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may increase in September. The import of unforged aluminum alloy may increase [9][80][91]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises' raw materials and finished products may increase [91]. - **Price and Cost**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy is close to loss, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on dips for the main contract or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a mid-term dividend to reward shareholders. For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 116.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.81% [4][6] - The revenue for Q2 2025 was 60.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.87% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.65%. The net profit for Q2 was 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.18% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.13% [4] - The performance fluctuations were mainly due to increased profits from the production and sales of primary aluminum and alumina, alongside decreased margins from self-produced coal and reduced profits from trading activities [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue from the primary aluminum segment was 75.95 billion yuan (up 11.38% year-on-year), while the alumina segment generated 33.24 billion yuan (up 5.75% year-on-year). Production volumes for metallurgical-grade alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and coal increased by 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The average price of alumina in the domestic futures market for H1 2025 was 3,192 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The price of alumina is expected to stabilize as industry supply pressures ease [5] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained its mid-term dividend policy, planning to distribute a cash dividend of 0.123 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders, totaling 2.11 billion yuan (before tax), which accounts for approximately 30% of the company's net profit for the first half of 2025 [6] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 14.84 billion yuan, 15.89 billion yuan, and 16.61 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.08, 8.48, and 8.11 times [7]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) has launched a special action plan for 2025 aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency while returning value to shareholders, aligning with various governmental guidelines and market initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Work Goals - The company aims to produce 16.81 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 4.46 million tons of fine alumina, 7.8 million tons of primary aluminum (including alloys), 14.1 million tons of raw coal, and generate 41.2 billion kWh of electricity by 2025 [2]. - The strategic focus includes building a world-class aluminum company through resource mining, technological innovation, advanced materials, and green low-carbon initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Performance in the First Half of 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved production of 8.6 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 3.97 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and 6.61 million tons of coal, representing year-on-year increases of 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% respectively [3]. - The company reported revenue of 116.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.12%, and a total profit of 13.2 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 7.1 billion yuan, marking increases of 2.16% and 0.81% respectively [3]. Group 3: Future Work Measures - The company plans to enhance production operations, upgrade management, and drive technological innovation to improve profitability and value creation [4][5]. - Key initiatives include rigorous cost control, project implementation, and optimizing traditional industry structures to support sustainable development [4][5]. Group 4: Enhancing Market Recognition - The company will improve information disclosure to enhance transparency and maintain high-quality communication with investors [5][6]. - Strengthening investor relations through multiple engagement channels and enhancing shareholder returns through cash dividends and share buybacks are also prioritized [5][6]. Group 5: ESG and Value Management - The company aims to lead in green and sustainable development within the aluminum industry by enhancing its ESG governance and performance [6]. - A focus on value management will be established to improve investment value and shareholder returns through various strategic tools [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating at a high level [11] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [13] - Lead: Oscillating [14] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly [16] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating [22] - Tin: Oscillating [23] 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues have pushed non - ferrous metals back to the upper edge of the recent range. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar and supply disturbances support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. In the long term, potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin support non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are supported by macro factors and supply disturbances; alumina prices are under pressure due to over - supply; aluminum prices are affected by supply, demand, and inventory; and so on [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Information Analysis: The Fed's potential September rate - cut and the resilience of the US economy boost copper prices. In August, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly year - on - year. The spot price showed a premium, and the inventory increased. The processing fees of copper ore and blister copper are low, and the raw material supply is tight. The cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, and some smelters may reduce production [6]. - Main Logic: Macro factors and supply disturbances support copper prices. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation was not obvious. Low inventory supports copper prices in the short term [6]. - Outlook: Copper supply constraints remain, and the inventory is low. However, the US copper tariff is not conducive to the Shanghai copper price. Copper is expected to oscillate [7]. Alumina - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of alumina in most regions was stable, while that in Xinjiang decreased. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi reduced production due to ore shortages. The winning bid price of a tender in Xinjiang decreased, and the railway freight in Shandong changed. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [7][8]. - Main Logic: The high - profit margin of smelters has shrunk, but the raw materials are relatively abundant. The operating capacity is at a high level, and the supply is in excess. The warehouse receipts and inbound volume have increased, and the price is expected to be under pressure. However, short - term supply capacity fluctuations and medium - to - long - term mine disturbances need attention [8]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider short - selling on rallies and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [10]. Aluminum - Information Analysis: On September 1, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE decreased. An Indonesian Chinese - funded electrolytic aluminum enterprise plans to put into production. The performance of some listed aluminum companies was released [10][11]. - Main Logic: The short - term US rate - cut expectation increases, and the US dollar is weak. The supply capacity is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the terminal consumption is not strong. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot discount is widening. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate [11]. - Outlook: Observe the short - term consumption and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of Baotai ADC12 was stable, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The SHFE adjusted the margin and price limit of cast aluminum alloy futures. The performance of some listed companies was released [11][12]. - Main Logic: The cost is supported by scrap aluminum. The supply decreased during the off - season, and some recycling plants reduced production due to policy changes. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [12][13]. - Outlook: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13]. Zinc - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of zinc showed a discount. The inventory of zinc ingots increased. A smelter in Guangxi plans to stop production for maintenance due to raw material supply interruption [13]. - Main Logic: The macro environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelter's profitability is good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - Outlook: In September, the zinc ingot production will remain high, and the demand recovery is limited. The inventory may continue to accumulate. The zinc price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead were stable. The spot price of lead ingots was stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The traditional peak season of the lead - acid battery market was average, and the transportation was restricted in some regions, affecting the inventory [14][15]. - Main Logic: The spot discount and the price difference between primary and secondary lead are stable. The supply of lead decreased slightly, and the demand is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. The demand for lead ingots is stable [15][16]. - Outlook: The macro environment is positive. The supply may tighten slightly this week, and the demand is stable. However, the release of accumulated lead ingots after the end of transportation restrictions may put pressure on the price. The lead price is expected to oscillate [16]. Nickel - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Some nickel - related projects and policy changes were reported, such as a new nickel and copper refinery in Tanzania and the change of RKAB approval in Indonesia [16][17][18]. - Main Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The ore supply may be loose after the rainy season. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the nickel salt price has declined slightly. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Use a short - term trading strategy [21]. - Outlook: The equity market is strong, and the expected RKAB approval in Indonesia in mid - September will make the nickel price oscillate strongly in the short term. Take a wait - and - see attitude in the long term [21]. Stainless Steel - Information Analysis: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price showed a premium. The production and logistics in the nickel industry chain in Indonesia were not affected by the demonstrations [22]. - Main Logic: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The stainless steel production increased in August. Pay attention to the demand during the peak season. The inventory decreased slightly, and the structural over - supply pressure has eased [22]. - Outlook: Be wary of the possible expansion of production cuts by steel mills. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes [22]. Tin - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight [23]. - Main Logic: The resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight supply of tin ore in China. The export of refined tin in Indonesia decreased, and the production and export in Africa are unstable. The supply is tight, supporting the tin price. The terminal demand has weakened, and the inventory reduction is difficult [23]. - Outlook: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of ore. It is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase in August [23].