每经记者｜李宇彤 每经编辑｜陈 星 豆包杀入了硝烟弥漫的互联网春节AI（人工智能）大战。 2月10日，字节跳动（以下或简称字节）旗下AI应用——豆包官宣将登上中央广播电视总台2026年春晚（以下简称总台春晚）。2026年 农历除夕夜当晚，豆包不仅将通过总台春晚发放现金红包，还将为全国观众送出超过10万份接入了豆包大模型的科技好礼。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，这是字节跳动CEO（首席执行官）梁汝波在2026年1月29日首次全员会议上定下新一年"勇攀高峰"关键 词后的豆包"首战"，也是豆包首次大方亮出硬件矩阵。 视觉中国图 据公司方面介绍，此次豆包送出的科技礼包囊括17款热门产品，包括宇树机器人、拓竹3D打印机、大疆无人机、极米投影仪等多款产 品，同时还送出上汽奥迪E5Sportback和奔驰CLA两款电车的使用权。 事实上，2026年农历春节，AI领域可谓红包纷飞、战火激烈：腾讯元宝携10亿元现金率先入场，希望重现微信红包的盛况；阿里千问 则以"春节30亿大免单"展开生态卡位…… 相较之下，字节跳动选择了另一条相对差异化的路径，将总台春晚的舞台转化为自身AI硬件生态的全民体验场。豆包再次打响AI交互 的硬件入 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing competition among Chinese tech giants for AI entry points and ecosystems, highlighting Tencent's significant investment and the strategic shift of Berkshire Hathaway in selling Apple shares to buy Google stock, indicating a re-evaluation of ecosystem competitiveness in the AI era [5][9][32]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett's regret over missing early investment opportunities in Google has led to a strategic shift, where Berkshire Hathaway sold $10.6 billion worth of Apple shares and invested $4.3 billion in Google, marking a significant change in its portfolio [9][10]. - The decision to invest in Google aligns with Buffett's long-standing preference for companies with strong ecosystems, as Google has developed a comprehensive AI ecosystem that integrates hardware, software, and services [11][12]. Group 2: Google's AI Ecosystem - Google has established a full-stack AI ecosystem, integrating chips (TPU), models (Gemini), and cloud services, which has proven effective in enhancing its competitive position in the AI market [17][20]. - The TPU chip provides cost advantages and autonomy, allowing Google to meet its internal AI computing demands while reducing reliance on external suppliers [20][21]. - Google's Gemini models have shown superior performance compared to competitors, with Gemini 3 leading in various benchmarks and achieving significant user engagement [23][26]. Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - Google's cloud revenue grew by 33.5% year-over-year to $15.16 billion in Q3 2025, with operating profit reaching $3.59 billion, indicating strong market performance [27][28]. - The integration of AI into Google's advertising and cloud services has created a positive feedback loop, enhancing user experience and driving revenue growth [26][27]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies like Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft facing challenges in AI capabilities and cloud services, highlighting the importance of building self-sustaining ecosystems [35][37][39]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Amazon's AWS is losing market share due to late entry into generative AI and challenges in model and chip development, despite its strong customer base [35][36]. - Meta struggles with model capabilities and lacks a cloud business, impacting its ability to leverage AI effectively [37]. - Microsoft's reliance on partnerships for AI capabilities, coupled with a lack of proprietary models, may hinder its competitive edge in the evolving AI landscape [39][40]. Group 5: Future Implications - The article emphasizes that only companies that can build self-reinforcing ecosystems will thrive in the AI era, as demonstrated by Google's early investments in AI technology [33][43]. - The ongoing competition among tech giants for AI dominance will shape the future landscape, with successful players likely to see significant valuation increases [34][44].

综上所述， 中原证券认为目前半导体行业仍处于上行周期，AI为推动半导体行业成长的 重要动力。 一、半导体行业持续景气 中原证券研报指出，全球半导体销售额继续同比增长，海外云厂商2 6年资本支出再加速。 2 0 25年12月全球半导体销售额同比增长37.1%，连续2 6个月实现同比增长，环比增长 2 . 7%；根据WSTS的预测， 预计2026年全球半导体销售额将同比增长8 . 5% 。 下游需求呈现结构分化趋势，AI算力硬件基础设施需求持续旺盛，2 5Q4北美四大云厂商 谷歌、微软、Me t a、亚马逊资本支出同比增长67%，环比增长2 2%，并预计2 0 2 6年资本 支出继续加速增长；2 5Q3国内三大互联网厂商阿里巴巴、百度、腾讯资本开支合计同比 增长32%。25Q3中芯国际、华虹、联电产能利用率环比继续提升，华虹持续满产。 中原证券表示，半导体行业持续景气，涨价已从存储蔓延至产业链各环节，半导体产业链 迎来全面涨价潮， 建议关注晶圆代工、封测、功率器件、服务器CPU、存储器等领域的 投资机会。 二、相关上市公司： ...

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital flow into Hong Kong stocks showed a net inflow of approximately 45.67 billion HKD despite a generally weak market performance, indicating continued interest from investors [2][3]. Southbound Capital Flow - Today's southbound trading volume reached about 947.77 billion HKD, an increase of approximately 40 billion HKD from the previous day, accounting for 39.70% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index, which has fallen below 40% again [2]. - The net inflow from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was about 46.56 billion HKD, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect experienced a net outflow of approximately 0.89 billion HKD [2]. Individual Stock Performance - Significant net purchases included Tencent Holdings (14.29 billion HKD), Xiaomi Group (10.20 billion HKD), Meituan (9.85 billion HKD), and Kingsoft Cloud (1.89 billion HKD) [3]. - Major net outflows were observed in WuXi Biologics (3.92 billion HKD), Zijin Mining (3.46 billion HKD), and Pop Mart (3.01 billion HKD) [3]. Investment Highlights - Tencent Holdings saw a decline of 2.28% with a net increase of 25.2 million shares over the past five days, indicating a short-term inflow trend [4]. - Xiaomi Group decreased by 1.56%, with a net increase of 53.81 million shares in the last five days, showing continued short-term inflow [4]. - Meituan dropped 4.50%, but there was a net increase of 20.59 million shares over the past five days, suggesting accelerated short-term inflow [4]. - Kingsoft Cloud increased by 7.82%, with a net increase of 35.20 million shares in the last five days, indicating sustained short-term inflow [4]. - WuXi Biologics fell by 0.14%, but there was a net increase of 25.83 million shares over the past five days, maintaining a primary inflow trend [4]. - Zijin Mining rose by 3.45%, with a net reduction of 8.28 million shares in the last five days, indicating a primary outflow trend [4]. - Pop Mart decreased by 1.10%, with a net increase of 5.58 million shares over the past five days, showing a slowdown in inflow [4]. Recent Trading Activity - In the past month, Tencent Holdings had a net capital inflow of 16.44 billion HKD, while Meituan experienced a net inflow of 6.70 billion HKD despite a 4.50% decline [5]. - Xiaomi Group recorded a net inflow of 7.34 billion HKD, while WuXi Biologics faced a net outflow of 3.92 billion HKD [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in the stock price of Zhipu, which has nearly doubled, and the positive performance of the semiconductor sector driven by AI application stocks [2][5] - The Hang Seng Index and its sub-indices experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 1.65% and the Hang Seng Index down by 0.86% [3][4] - Zhipu's stock price surged over 98% from February 9 to February 12, attributed to the announcement of a price increase for its GLM Coding Plan, which is expected to enhance the computing power industry chain [5][8] Group 2 - The semiconductor stocks saw a notable increase in the afternoon session, with companies like TianShu ZhiXin and ZhaoYi Innovation rising over 20%, driven by Zhipu's price adjustment announcement [8][9] - Zhipu's price adjustment for the GLM Coding Plan includes a structural increase starting from 30%, while maintaining prices for existing subscribers, reflecting strong market demand and increased user engagement [8][10] - The AI application sector, particularly the "dual giants" Zhipu and MINIMAX-WP, reached new highs, indicating a robust interest in AI technologies and their market potential [5][6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the Chinese cloud market, highlighting that the focus may shift from who is first to how long the second tier can keep up [1][30]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Alibaba Cloud's market share increased from 33% to 36%, indicating a significant growth of 3 percentage points in a mature market [3][6]. - The growth of Alibaba Cloud is attributed to structural new demand driven by AI, rather than just the migration of existing customers [9][11]. - The demand for AI has evolved from simple applications to deep integration into core business processes, leading to increased consumption of cloud resources [11][12]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - While Alibaba Cloud's share increased, competitors like Huawei Cloud and Tencent Cloud saw declines, with Huawei dropping from 18% to 16% and Tencent from 10% to 9% [17]. - This disparity indicates a significant shift in market dynamics, where demand is increasingly concentrated among leading providers [18][19]. Group 3: Alibaba Cloud's Strategy - Alibaba Cloud's success is attributed to three key strategies: substantial investment in AI infrastructure, full-stack optimization, and an open-source ecosystem [20][22][23]. - The company plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over the next three years, significantly increasing its capacity to meet customer demands [20][21]. - Full-stack optimization allows Alibaba Cloud to reduce costs by 10%-30% compared to competitors, enhancing its competitive edge [22]. - The open-source strategy has led to over 1 billion downloads of its Qwen models, creating a robust developer ecosystem that drives cloud usage [23][24]. Group 4: Global Comparisons - The article draws parallels with Google Cloud, which has also seen significant growth driven by AI infrastructure and solutions, indicating a broader trend in the cloud market [27][29]. - Both Alibaba Cloud and Google Cloud demonstrate that leadership in AI capabilities and infrastructure can create a positive feedback loop, enhancing customer retention and market share [29].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.05% closing at 4134.02 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.86% to 14283.00 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.32% to 3328.06 points [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.16 trillion, an increase of 159.8 billion compared to the previous day [3] Sector Performance - Technology stocks were the main driving force in today's market, with notable performances from companies like Cambrian (up nearly 4%) and CATL (up 2.14%) [4] - The software sector in the U.S. has seen a significant decline of nearly 40% this year, a trend that is also affecting Hong Kong and A-share markets, although A-shares have not yet experienced panic selling [5] - The consumer sector, including film, dining, and food and beverage, is experiencing a normal pullback after a pre-holiday surge [8] Individual Stock Movements - The stock performance of "Yizhongtian" showed significant divergence, with Tianfu Communication rising by approximately 14%, while New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang faced declines [4] - The recent listing of "Dian Ke Lantian," touted as the "first commercial aerospace stock," has seen its price drop from 80.88 yuan to 57.5 yuan over three days, indicating a significant short-term adjustment [8] Capital Flow - The market saw a net outflow of approximately 7 billion from main funds, with fluctuations in northbound capital, which showed signs of buying at lower levels but ultimately ended with an outflow of 1.8 billion [7] - The number of stocks rising versus falling was notably uneven, with 2038 stocks up and 3129 down, indicating a broader market correction [7] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with technology stocks leading the charge while other sectors, particularly large financials and consumer stocks, are under pressure [7][8]

美团-W(03690)获净买入9.84亿港元。消息面上，美团LongCat原生"深度研究"（Deep Research）智能体正式发布。据悉，该 智能体是LongCat团队采用了"真实场景+科学训练"的训练方法，这让智能体每次研究都会从真实生活经验出发，从而缓解当 前AI在解决真实物理世界问题时容易出现幻觉的痛点。 港股通(深)活跃成交股 腾讯(00700)获净买入14.29亿港元。消息面上，小摩发表报告指，农历新年仍是中国消费科技领域最密集、历史上最具效力的 发布窗口。如果DeepSeek新版本在农历新年期间发布，真正重要的影响主要体现在可能释放平台经济效益。对互联网平台而 言，该行认为腾讯最有可能从潜在的DeepSeek新版本中受惠最大。 小米集团-W(01810)、金山云(03896)分别获净买入10.19亿、1.89亿港元。消息面上，高盛发布研报称，预计小米将于2026年 在AI领域投入约100亿元人民币，而金山云将可成为小米持续对AI发展加大投资的主要受益者。该行表示，小米锐意通过 其"人车家"生态，将AI与物理世界融合，预计金山云将在今年中前更新与小米的关连交易协议，使2026至2027年来自小米 ...

据央视新闻报道，1月28日至31日，英国首相斯塔默对中国进行正式访问。这是英国首相时隔8年再次到 访中国。在全球不确定性不断增加的背景下，中英经贸关系备受关注。 中国华南英国商会主席马克·柯雷顿（Mark Clayton）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，此次访问恰逢其 时，因为"沟通和交流比以往任何时候都更加重要"。 深耕广东市场20余年，柯雷顿是中英经贸交流的重要参与者。柯雷顿称，中英企业之间的合作正在回 暖，而广东凭借高科技与先进制造业的完整生态，正成为英国企业布局中国内地的"首选落脚点"。 南方财经：英国首相斯塔默于1月28日至31日对中国进行了正式访问。你对中英经贸关系有何期待？ 更值得关注的是，人工智能正成为中英合作的新增长极。他透露，已有英国人工智能企业对深圳前海展 现浓厚兴趣，投资规模甚至以"十亿英镑"为单位。 中英经贸合作焕发新活力 英国企业看好广东AI产业 南方财经：你如何看待未来5年广东在科技创新、区域融合以及产业升级等方面的发展潜力？ 柯雷顿：我认为，广东未来的发展将更加鲜明地迈向高质量发展，并持续向更先进的制造业与生产力水 平迈进。以机器人产业为例，广东有望迎来新一轮快速增长。当前，广东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival marks a significant shift in the competition among Chinese AI giants, focusing on the "efficiency" and "intelligent agent" implementation of flagship models rather than just model performance [2][10]. Group 1: Model Releases and Competition - The Spring Festival has become a crowded "release season" with multiple flagship and near-flagship updates from various companies, unlike previous singular releases [3]. - ByteDance leads with a trio of models: Seedance 2.0 (video), Seedream 5.0 (image), and Doubao 2.0, with Seedance 2.0 showing signs of becoming a "hit" [3]. - Alibaba is set to launch Qwen 3.5 in mid-February, supported by a 3 billion yuan incentive plan to attract users [4]. - Zhiyu released GLM-5 on February 11, expanding its parameter scale from 355 billion to 744 billion [5]. - DeepSeek is expected to unveil version V4 in mid-February, focusing on improvements in encoding and handling long prompts, with support for up to 1 million tokens [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Implications - The simultaneous release of multiple models will lead to intensified comparative testing, making it crucial for developers to present credible flagship updates to avoid being dropped from trial lists [8]. - The Spring Festival is viewed as a reset period for user preferences, where users will experiment with various products but quickly decide which to continue using [9]. - DeepSeek's potential release is anticipated to have a significant impact on platform economic benefits rather than just the chatbot itself [10]. Group 3: DeepSeek's Technological Advancements - DeepSeek's latest paper reveals a technological path that enhances quality without heavy computational upgrades, using "conditional memory" as a second sparse axis [11]. - If implemented as described, this could lead to efficiency improvements, allowing AI to be economically embedded in high-frequency consumer products rather than remaining standalone chatbots [12]. Group 4: Beneficiaries of the Model War - Surprisingly, the biggest beneficiaries of the model war may not be the model vendors but Tencent, which owns the high-frequency communication interfaces WeChat and QQ [13][14]. - Tencent is expected to integrate third-party model capabilities into its core consumer interfaces, enhancing user experience [15]. - For Alibaba and Baidu, stronger models could improve user experience but may also face pressure from potential price wars initiated by DeepSeek [16]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the enthusiasm in the capital markets, there is a cautious perspective regarding the actual implementation of consumer-level AI, with large-scale user testing during the Spring Festival serving as a critical test [18][19]. - The true signal of adoption will not be the initial release hype but whether existing giants will integrate AI as a default feature in high-frequency interfaces, driving sustained demand for reasoning capabilities [20]. Group 6: Valuation and Long-term Profitability - Zhiyu's GLM-5 has achieved state-of-the-art capabilities in agent functionality, while MiniMax has realized dual commercialization in B2B and B2C through its full-spectrum models [22]. - Morgan Stanley's valuation logic looks beyond short-term losses, projecting towards 2030 profitability, with target prices set at 400 HKD for Zhiyu and 700 HKD for MiniMax based on a 30x expected P/E ratio for 2030 [23][24]. - As model capabilities approach global frontiers, the rationale for valuation adjustments will shift towards economic benefits, including stronger willingness to pay and higher API workload retention rates [25].